Kashmir Scene
Kashmir polls verdict

By Tushar Ram

After disproving all scepticism about the chances of a successful voting exercise in Jammu and Kashmir, the voter of the State has stated in no uncertain terms that his or her first concern is peace and development. The "status" of the State, on terms spelt out by Pakistan - backed separatists, may still keep certain busy bodies engaged; but where the people of the State are concerned they will like nothing better than to see the Kashmir valley restored to its original "status" --- "a paradise on earth". This status we as wrecked by agents sent or trained by Pakistan who have -unsatiatible appetite for blood and gore. They have no concern for the welfare of the people, which was made subservient to an ideology that worships violence. They have also spread the canard that terrorism is the only way to "solve" the "Kashmir problem."

But the blood-thirsty, gun-totting degenerates sent from across the border to hijack the ballot box with bullets have received a rasping slap from the unarmed but brave people of Jammu and Kashmir who have shown their clear preference for the peace and solidarity with the India Union. The elections in the State, supervised competently by the Election Commission and the security forces, were concluded after four rounds of polling. The terrorists' contribution was the expected bloodshed which saw 800 people being killed.

The people of the State have given a clear verdict against the present Government in the State, headed by the National Conference. But nobody is willing to share the "pre-emptie verdict" of the Pakistani military establishment, headed by the hot-headed Gen Parvez Musharraf, that elections in Jammu and Kashmir were a "sham"; not even his most ardent admirer and blind supporter, President George W. Bush of the USA. The best that the Bush administration could do for Musharraf was to give a somewhat lukewarm reaction to the Kashmir polls, qualifying it with the "resume-dialogue" word that Pakistan is ever dying to hear.

Despite the non-stop violence orchestrated from across the border and the daily threats issued to voters by terrorists, the large turnout of voters in the Kashmir election must have given another complex to the General in Pakistan, especially because there was a palpable absence of enthusiasm for participating in an exercise that only the military dictator and his henchmen described as "free and fair". Having seen Musharraf banish his main rivals and ruling out the entry of a large number of potential rivals in the "election", the General's own people remained unconvinced by his claims that his kind of tailored democracy" would usher in "real democracy."

The Pakistanis will now have a tougher job convincing the world that their own elections were free and fair, given the universal condemnation of the pre-election manipulations by the Pakistani dictator who went on issuing "legal framework orders" right till the last few hours to the poll. Someone has rightly said that what Pakistan witnessed was not "general election" but "General's election" - what with Musharraf appointing himself as President (initially) for a five-year term and then making it very plain that he would continue to keep the real reigns of power in his hands even after the "executive powers" and handed over to a (puppet) Prime Minister. Whom he will select for the hatchet job will be interesting to watch as his chosen person Mian Azhar has tasted defeat in his home constituency.

Be that as it may, the Kashmir poll results should also open the eyes of the very vocal and publicity - savvy Pak - supported militant lobby within Kashmir that has been waging a secession war at the behest of Islamabad while falsely claiming to represent the people of the State. The All Party Hurriyat Conference may continue to be a darling of the West, but by following blanket orders from Islamabad that led it to boycott the poll, this umbrella organisation of separatists is in danger of becoming irrelevant to future negotiations with the Government.

It may not be long before its most visible Indian supporter, Ram Jethmalani, may also be ditching it if it does not give up its habit of looking up to Pakistan.

Another important "verdict" from the Kashmir poll results is yet another rejection of the deceptive politics of the Bharatiya Janata Party by the Indian voter, particularly BJP's open espousal of jingoism.

The BJP spokesmen and party apologists have been hard put to explain the BJP rout in the Kashmir poll and the re-emergence of the Congress --- and the People's Democratic Party - in the State. They will spend many sleepless nights now considering that the Congress has bagged yet another State - 15th. For a party that is routinely written off by the majority of the so-called politial analysts, this is something of an incredible achievement, though the Congress show in the J&K poll pales in comparison with the impressive gains made by the PDP, raised almost solely by Mufti Mohammed Sayeed, in its first electoral race. PDP may well replace the NC as the most potent regional political force in the State.

Among the factors that instant experts have ascribed to the defeat of the BJP and its ally, the National Conference, which had ruled the State almost uninterrupted since Independence, is the woolly Kashmir policy of the Centre. In fact, these political analysts are now saying that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance Government has had no Kashmir policy. That, of course, is true.

But the strange "alliance" between the BJP and the National Conference must have been a bigger factor contributing to the debacle of both parties in Jammu and Kashmir. Both the BJP and the NC forged an opportunistic alliance at the Centre to boost the number of NDA members. But within Jammu and Kashmir the two parties always remained at daggers drawn, never shying away from snipping at each other. The BJP went a step further by hugging a patently communal forum in the Jammu region while still maintaining "ties" with the NC for gains, which remand elusive.

Typical of its double - speak, the BJP in Jammu and Kashmir was clearly supporting the demand for trifurcating the State but outside the State its leaders were saying they did not support the demand. Before its ascendancy to power, the BJP had painted the previous Governments at the Centre as being callous towards the plight of the Kashmiri Pandits. But once in power, the BJP all but forgot them. From the Prime Minister downwards, big "packages" were announced for the economic development of the militancy - ravaged State, but no results were visible on the ground.

There is some sympathy for the defeat of the young scion of the "ruling dynasty", Omar Abdullah, from the Ganderbal constituency, mainly because of his dynamism, vision and transparency. True to his character he was humble in accepting defeat and promised introspection by his party. The vanquished NC has to first look inwards to determine what was the extent of damage to its fortunes caused by Omar's father and Chief Minister, Dr Farooq Abdullah, who apparently treated ruling Kashmir as an unnecessary burden that distracted him from his love for golf and other pastimes.

His style was reminiscent of the days when some Indian rulers, on voluntary or forced exile, left their sandals as a token of their presence on the throne. Those emulating that rule in the 21st century can only expect to receive the boot from the voter. And they did. (Syndicate Features)

Trips: Threat to Indian Pharmaceutical Industry

By Arvinder Kaur

The Indian Pharmaceutical Industry is a success story providing employment for millions and ensuring that essential drugs are available to the vast population of this sub-continent at affordable prices. However, the new rules of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) now pose a serious threat to the industry and to the millions dependent on it for cheap drugs.

Come January 1, 2005 and the Indian drug makers will have to honour international pharmaceutical patents for the first time since 1970s. The indigenous capability will be hit hard. Consumers will have to pay higher prices. The infrastructure created by local industry will remain unutilized.

Local production will be confined to making age-old drugs, denying the benefits of new drugs and innovation. Local producers will have to wait 20 years for the patent to expire on a new drug, before they can start to manufacture it, by which time its value will probably be undermined by a new drug in the market. India will revert back to a pre-1970 scenario, where everything was being imported.

India had stopped recognising drug product patents in the 1970s to try to cut the cost of medicine for its vast, poor population. The Indian Patent Act, 1970, which came into force in 1972, prohibited the protection of product patents for pharmaceuticals, permitting the production and sale of drugs without licence from the patent holder. There was an unprecedented growth in turnover and investments in this sector in India, with over 20,000 units operating by 1994.

Bulk drug production, which was worth only Rs 240 crore in 1980-81, grew to Rs 3777 crore in 1999-2000 and formulations, which in 1980-81 were worth Rs 1200 crore rose to Rs 16,000 crore in 1999-2000. In the export front too, the pharmaceuticals fetched, Rs 6631 crore in 1999-2000 compared to Re 46 crore in 1980-81.

The resilience and the capacity to grab the new opportunities provided by the Indian Patent Act, 1970 became the main strength of the industry. Where the new products were not registered by the parent MNCs, Indian companies very quickly got the products approved by the Drug Regulatory Agency.

They quickly mastered the technology for production of new formulations and once the product was first launched, several copies of the same entered the market. Compared to the general price index, experts say drug prices have risen much less in the last 15 years and remain far below average, compared to other countries.

While India has agreed to start up the product patent again in 2005, as part of a pact with the WTO, experts say many of the legal mechanisms for the resumption-of drug-patent observance are not yet in place. Though as a first step, the patent law was revised in 1999, India still does not have a system for reviewing all those patents it is promising to honour.

A debate is also going on over compulsory licencing. The provision in WTO agreement is designed to allow mass production of drugs in case of national emergencies. At such a time the Government can ask a third party to produce a patent drug on mass scale if the parent company is unable to supply the drug at cheap price. The Government has the right to take away the protection and outsource it.

The South African Government has done it in the case of HIV and invoked compulsory licencing provision to ensure cheap HIV treatment. The Indian Pharmaceutical Alliance, an industry libby group, wants a different compulsory licencing standard in India. However, experts say compulsory licensing is a must more so for developing country like India if cheap drugs cannot manufactured, Governments will not be able to control epidemic effectively.

While AIDS is affecting hundreds daily, malaria, tuberculosis and epidemics continue to kill thousands every year in such a situation, it becomes necessary to keep the prices of drugs under control. The Indian Drug Manufacturers Association says the situation is very bleak as of today and the Government needs to urgently make a countermove. Otherwise multinational suppliers are going to dominate the market with much higher prices.

It will become difficult for Indian companies to compete, jobs will be lost and India’s balance of trade in the area pharmaceuticals will be in deficit - a situation that was existing before 1970. The association says the Indian Government should fully exhaust those positive options that are still contained in the international TRIPS rules and especially those to provide for effective enforced licences.

Infact, the clauses pertaining to public interest should be operationalised properly along with the obligations of the patent holder. The patent holder must use the patent rights with a conscience, they say.

Core competence will play an important role in determining the future of the industry in the post-product patent regime after 2005. In an effort to consolidate their position, Indian companies will have to increasingly look at mergers and acquisitions of. This would help them to offset loss of new product options, improve their R&D besides improving marketing of products.

The Indian industry needs to attain the right product mix for sustained future growth. There is need to go in for R&D, produce new molecules and be a leader in the field. Also India needs a strong pool of experts - both scientific and legal - to understand the rules of the new game and change the strategy accordingly.

Indian R&D expenditure is very less - just two per cent of sales, which could have a negative effect in the long run. However, mergers and acquisitions are a strategy to overcome the restraints. Many companies are adopting it as a strategy to overcome ever-growing R&D expenditure, GATT pressures, increasing competition and new marketing areas.

One of the important opportunities that Indian manufacturers can tap, is the projected boom in the generic market. Drugs worth 41 billion dollar are expected to go off patent by 2005 and Indian companies can take advantage of it. But then, for the rest they will have to depend on the MNCs, which is also not a very healthy proposition.

PTI Feature