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EDITORIAL

Flowery things all!

Even without flinging the actual flowers around the Chief Minister has been throwing out enough good vibes. What with the release of some of the long incarcerated terrorists and their leaders, the valley which he is presently visiting must be full of roses even as December is approaching. So the university of Kashmir got together with the cooperative department and bedecked at least a part of the bullet prone city in an actual exhibition of flowers for the new head of the State. Though one would have thought that the Agri Varasity and the department of floriculture were the proper collaborators to showcase the valley’s potential for things flowery, but then there are many, rather too many, right men in the wrong places in not only the valley but the whole State. As it turns out there are wrong men in the right jails and the Government of the State is committed to correcting that abnormality too, if the Common Minimum Programme is to be believed. And the new Government is going quite systematically about it.

So Malik followed Bakshi and others are coming out too. Now, there was no rationale for keeping his leader Yasin Malik in Jail when the Shakeel Bakshi of the Rubia .....more


Tasks before J&K Government
Restoring health of vital institutions

By M M Khajooria

During the last two decades or so Jammu and Kashmir witnessed a grave erosion of .....more

Dialogue with militants
TALES OF TRAVESTY

By Dr. Jitendra Singh

An unnecessary and infact avoidable controversy has appeared in certain quarters over the Chief Minister Mufti Mohd....more

Pakistan sullies saarc spirit

By Atul Chowshish

After the present dictator, Gen Parvez Musharraf, took over the reins of power in Islamabad, Pakistan has been changing its spots with amazing.......more

The other opinion

By M J Akbar

There is one opinion poll which is totally accurate, without any margin of error, devoid of any imponderable variable,......more


EDITORIAL

Flowery things all!

Even without flinging the actual flowers around the Chief Minister has been throwing out enough good vibes. What with the release of some of the long incarcerated terrorists and their leaders, the valley which he is presently visiting must be full of roses even as December is approaching. So the university of Kashmir got together with the cooperative department and bedecked at least a part of the bullet prone city in an actual exhibition of flowers for the new head of the State. Though one would have thought that the Agri Varasity and the department of floriculture were the proper collaborators to showcase the valley’s potential for things flowery, but then there are many, rather too many, right men in the wrong places in not only the valley but the whole State. As it turns out there are wrong men in the right jails and the Government of the State is committed to correcting that abnormality too, if the Common Minimum Programme is to be believed. And the new Government is going quite systematically about it.

So Malik followed Bakshi and others are coming out too. Now, there was no rationale for keeping his leader Yasin Malik in Jail when the Shakeel Bakshi of the Rubia kidnapping fame could be free and frolicking in the flowery valley. And with that duo, trio or quadroon out, there is little sense in keeping others in. Thus though the Government has taken no decision on the Geelani case yet, there is definitely no point in keeping the aged cleric in. Or, any one else. Let all the ope and bloom and engulf the valley in the scents of their choosing. With that variety in place the state may get to be even an even more robust exporter of flowers to the whole world. After all, flowers are something special to this State for it includes the valley the original garden on this side of Eden. And how best to transform this State, except through an explosion of flowers and an export of the scented things. As any hakim of the vintage training would tell you a flower is better than all the medicines in the apothecary’s chest. Now can there be any better healing than one with flowers and scents. What better transformation would one want than to have a riot of flowers replace the right to gun’ current in there.

Of course, raising flowers is a risky business. They are so delicate, so prone to being overrun by weeds and shrubs and cross-pollinated their own jungle varieties. But then those who grow flowers know all about the trade. They know how to prune and cut and clip. So even if it looks that December is fast approaching, one must trust that the planter knows about that chilling thing too. He must, for his is the garden and his the crop. And then there is little else one can do about it. Having seen other trades not coming to much, one has to depend on what little innovation there can be. And, then the freshness of the flowers, their vibes and vapors enliven the atmosphere almost helplessly. As it is there has been enough of banging and blasting around. If for nothing but a simple change, the flowery interlude would be a welcome digression for all the concerned. And who knows they may actually do that needed cheering up. So let the thousand flowers bloom anew, the Maoian connotation and miscarriage notwithstanding.

Tasks before J&K Government
Restoring health of vital institutions

By M M Khajooria

During the last two decades or so Jammu and Kashmir witnessed a grave erosion of the primary institutions of the parliamentary democratic system. The Government came to be run according to the whims and fancies of the 'undisputed leader' who deliberately dwarfed the second line leadership. Host of sycophants, time-servers and manipulators amongst the civil servants inevitably warmed their way into his favour. They rode rough shot even over the cabinet ministers, who found discretion to be better part of the valour. The single party brute majority in the legislature and an ineffective and rudderless opposition facilitated the degeneration of the constitutional democracy into a virtual dictatorship. At the political plane, a class of hangers on, brokers and blood suckers attached themselves to the men in authority. They distributed favours, jobs and contracts, of course for consideration. Justice, fair play and equality before law were just words in the dictionary to be recited for the benefit of the credolous. The election to the state assembly has brought about a revolution of sorts. This presents an opportunity to cleanse the system of parasites and 'yes men', to herald an era of decency in public life and integrity and transparency in governance in the bloodied and battered state of Jammu and Kashmir.

The once mighty Jammu & Kashmir National Conference has been humbled at the husting in a fair trial of strength. This is the party that under the leadership of Shiekh Mohd Abdullah, awakened the people of Kashmir from centuries old slumber, welded them into a powerful people's movement and fired it with a secular, democratic and progressive political culture. The credit for linking the fate of the Muslim majority state with secular India in preference to a theocratic Pakistan also goes to this party. The first National Conference Government under the Premiership of Shiekh Mohd Abdullah ushered in unprecedented and till date unmatched revolutionary land reforms and Debt reconciliation measures freeing the tenants and poor borrowers held in bondage by money lenders since centuries. How these enormous assets were squandered away is a subject of an independent and in-depth study. However, the party with 28 members has a strong presence in the assembly. Its leadership has done well to sit in the opposition and initiate 'serious and honest' introspection for ascertaining the causes of the debacle. If the right lessons are learnt and necessary corrective measures taken, the party may be able to rejuvenate itself. In the meantime, its parliamentary wing should discharge the constitutional obligations of a constructive and responsible opposition acting as the watch dog for people's interests.

The Congress-PDP coalition that has emerged as the alternative stands committed to do away with the system aberrations and distortions that became the hall mark of their predecessors in power Having contested the elections on a common anti-National Conference plank and hammered out a Common Minimum Program, the combine should be in a position to seriously and determinedly work for its implementation. It needs to be emphasized that even though the popular verdict was fractured in terms of party preferences, it was categorical for change and the rejection of the then ruling party.

The electorate have a right to expect that the Congress-PDP combine provide a Government with a difference a clean, efficient and transparent government that really works. The genuineness of its commitment to the welfare of all the people of the state irrespective of regional, communal or ethnic considerations will be tested in days to come. The objectives of Peace, reconciliation and reconstruction should inspire its policy formulations and program implementation. They have to make good the promises held out in the Common Minimum Program to retain the faith and confidence of the people. People expect them not only to resist the temptations that come with power but be also seen to be doing so.

The role of the legislature, the cabinet and the administrative machine is critical to the proper working of the democratic and secular polity that we the people of the state have chosen to give to ourselves. Bringing back these institutions on the rails, infusing propriety, a sense of purpose, total commitment to the service of the people in their working and an unwavering adherence to the constitution should be on the top of the agenda of the coalition government.

Legislature

Unfortunately, the standard of performance in our law making bodies have suffered gradual decline over the decades. The down slide is primarily attributable to the dwindling values, falling standards of debate and scant knowledge and understanding of parliamentary laws, rules and practices. The ruling party and the opposition perceive themselves in an adversarial rather than a complimentary role. The first and foremost requirement therefore is to adequately equip our legislatures with the necessary knowledge of parliamentary rules, practices and code of conduct. As a first step precis containing necessary inputs on parliamentary etiquette, code of conduct, the material concerning rules that are commonly invoked during debates in the house should be compiled and circulated. This may be followed by periodical interactions of the members with parliamentarians of repute who may be sitting or former members of the legislatures. This program will enable the members to perform in the house with greater confidence, help raise the quality of debate and contribute more meaningfully and effectively towards issues of public concern and proposed legislations.

Both the ruling combine and the opposition will need to change their perceptions of roles and attitudes in and outside the House. The ruling coalition should respect the views, rights and privileges of the members of the opposition. Their perspectives and concerns should be received with an open mind and accorded due consideration. The opposition, on its part should be responsible as well as responsive. It should be conceded and demonstrated by both sides that the house is a forum for informed, intelligent and serious debate on matters of public interest. The quality of arguments and not the exercise of lung and muscle powers or sheer weight of numbers should determine the outcome of debates... The opposition will be well-advised to put to gather a Shadow cabinet., which should be provided access to necessary information by the Government on issues that come before the assembly. This will enrich the debate content, make the ministers work harder and significantly serve the public interest.

The Cabinet system

The founding fathers of our constitution opted for the parliamentary form of government with the cabinet system at its core. The system works according to the cardinal principles of Collective responsibility, Intra-cabinet responsibility or cabinet solidarity and Political accountability. These principles and the universally acknowledged practices of cabinet system suffered in J&K severe violence during last decade and a half or so. As the gap between the stature of the chief minister and his cabinet colleagues widened, these principles began to be observed more and more in breach. The powers of cabinet got concentrated in the Chief Minister. More often than not, he preferred to act on the advice of a coterie of favorite bureaucrats rather than consult with his cabinet colleagues. Even policy decisions were at times announced by the Chief on his own. When ever the Chief Minister preempted the cabinet decisions, the worthy ministers simply thump printed on the dotted line. In defence, it was argued that the ministers who retained their positions in the Government only so long as they enjoyed the confidence of the Chief hardly had any choice but to toe the line. The senior ministers, however were compensated with freedom to run their department more or less as their fiefdoms. The Chief Minister seldom asked for their advice. The ministers thought it prudent not to offer any on their own. No wonder system paralysis and administrative chaos over took the organs of governance.

The debilitating distortions that plague the system have to be corrected without any waste of time. As it is, a multi-party coalition is bound to insist on functioning according to the classical form of cabinet system of governance. Chief Minister, Mufti Mohd Syed is on record that all interests would be involved in decision making. Now, it is up to the coalition partners to ensure revival of the system and make it tick. As a first step, the Rules of Business need to be revised.. The Business Rules that emerged after the review and revision in late sixties could perhaps serve as the basis. The revision then undertake at the instance of the late Pandit Trilochan Dutt restored the cabinet to its original stature as the supreme policy making body and apex executive. It is universally recognized that the authority and responsibility have to go together. The cabinet ministers doing an onerous and demanding job and accountable to the people have to be empowered as per the tenants of the Cabinet system. And a system is as good as the men and women who work it.

The Services

Of the many assets the British bequeathed to India at the time of independence, the most valuable were the Civil Services-Indian Civil Service and Indian Police. These consisted of a small aristocracy of 'highly educated, carefully selected by difficult competitive examination, remarkably adaptable, almost entirely free from corruption, extremely devoted to duty and perhaps more important of all, Pan Indian rather than regional or provincial in loyalties''. The 'steel frame' was designed to be a link between successive ministries and the repository of principles and practices which endure while governments come and go. The expectations from the All India Services were aptly summed up by H N Kunzru, one of the most eminent parliamentarians that India has produced. While speaking in the Constituent Assembly he said that it was important ''to secure for the state, efficient public servants, who will serve all the people equally well and always watch over the interests of the communities and state as a whole.''

The All India Services in the country, especially in our state hardly bear any resemblance to the model. Though extended to Jammu & Kashmir in 1958, these actually became a regular feature from 1965., when the first batch of direct recruits was allotted to the state. The 'outside talent' was , of course tapped even during Maharajah's regime when integrity and efficiency were the norms. This practice continued even after the popular government took over. The real problem arose when direct recruits attained senior positions and some of them found it profitable to jostle for positions of proximity to and favors from the political masters. The emergence of the 'Syndicate' and 'Indicate' in the state bureaucracy and the mess they made of the administration is by now a part of the history.

The monopoly of power in one party reduced the state into a virtual monarchy minus its good features. In the ensuing environment those driven by raw self-interest and endowed with less stout moral fiber made hay... Oath to the constitution and ethics of service became irrelevant. Competent, self respecting and officers of integrity were side lined or 'shunted off' to Delhi on deputation. The proximity to rulers, the ability to please and eagerness to bend rules to comply with the wishes of lords and masters opened up doors to power and privilege. The situation seemed to merit the harsh judgment by UB Kulkarni who wrote, ''India is thus burdened with a vast and financially ruinous army of Government officials, most of whom ought to have pursued some other vocations instead of creating an illusions that they are capable of assisting their political masters in an era of socialism.''

To be able to make good its commitments to the electorate the Coalition Government would need civil servants of integrity, competence and courage who tender advice strictly according to law, rules and regulations without fudging the facts, freely and fearlessly. Minions though good for ego trips are no substitute for officers of personnel and intellectual integrity and invariably become a liability. Fortunately, there is no dearth of good officers in the state cadres. The Government has only to look around for those who fit the classical profile. Once the overall administrative environment changes and services come into their own, the service of people will bounce back at the center of their concerns. This could well be the beginning of a new era of hope, justice, good governance and peace in Jammu and Kashmir.

Dialogue with militants
TALES OF TRAVESTY

By Dr. Jitendra Singh

An unnecessary and infact avoidable controversy has appeared in certain quarters over the Chief Minister Mufti Mohd Sayeed's suggestion that the Govt of India must initiate a dialogue with all sections of opinion including militants groups in Kashmir Valley. Much of this controversy is unwarranted and possibly owes its origin to misinterpretation of the very idea of talking to separatists and other alienated sections in the Valley.

Mufti or no Mufti, the point being conveniently missed is that the idea of a dialogue with militants and separatists is not new and has been in the past directly or indirectly supported by most of the major political parties including the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the National Conference. The Kashmir Committee headed by Ram Jethmalani and the earlier K.C. Pant initiative were primarily mooted by the Vajpayee Government at the Centre and apparently endorsed by the Farooq Government at the State level albeit amidst allegations that the National Conference was not actually sincere about facilitating any such move which impliedly sought to prop up another rival party or group in Kashmir.

Now, what is wrong if Mufti Mohd Sayeed also advocates an open-minded dialogue with militants? Simply because Mufti's People's Democratic Party (PDP) has its base in the Valley and it identifies better with the Kashmiri masses should not as such negate or devalue the merit of a suggestion which also enjoys the approval of the Congress and other mainstream parties like the Communists and the Janata Dal.

The current Kashmir scenario is evolving very fast and it is time now to make a clear demarcation between local Kashmiri militants and the foreign sponsored militants exported from Pakistan, Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, Sudan and a host of other countries. At the same time, it is important to recognise the fact that the number of local militants has gone down considerably and people's support to militancy does not exist any more. Those of the local youth who are still turning to militancy, do so either because of allurement of money or because of cohersion at gun point. It is precisely this section of youth who need to be salvaged by being offered suitable employment and means of livelihood besides being protected from armed intimidation by foreign sponsored agencies on the one hand and the State police force on the other hand.

The Kashmir imbroglio has persisted for a little too long. It is now running out of its self-limiting course. The impasse has to be broken sooner or later and this can be achieved only through dialogue. If that be so, then the question is why not initiate dialogue sooner than later? Without compromising the security of the nation or the innocent people and without showing any leniency to those who refuse to surrender the gun even when given a chance, a dialogue is certainly the most viable option available.

Mahatma Gandhi used to say, what use is freedom or "Azaadi" if it leaves behind a trail of orphans, widows and grieving parents. This advice from the Mahatma has still not lost relevance and should infact serve as a cue for each player on the Kashmir stage and most of all for the common man who is a loser both ways ------ whether he gets killed himself or survives in loneliness to mourn the killing of his loved ones. Umapathy's predicament is summed up in the poetic dilemma "Main Bach Bhi Jaun To Tanhaai Mar Dalegi, Mere Kabile Ka Har Fard Qatl-gah Mein Hai!"

Pakistan sullies saarc spirit

By Atul Chowshish

After the present dictator, Gen Parvez Musharraf, took over the reins of power in Islamabad, Pakistan has been changing its spots with amazing frequency. The process that started with Musharraf disowning (deceptively, as it turned out) the Policy of nurturing terrorism in his country has since travelled many miles to focus at the moment on Pakistan’s new found love for South Asia Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC).

This is evident from the hue and cry being raised by Pakistan over the so-called Indian attempts to undermine SAARC. India has been accused by Pakistan of bringing in "extraneous" issues- related to economic cooperation in the region-while Pakistan has claimed for itself a model role (!) in doing everything to make economic cooperation among SAARC members a grand success. Islamabad is making outrageous statements to hide its poor track record in economic cooperation in the region.

The refusal by India to give a categorical assurance at this stage that the Prime Minister, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, will attend the next SAARC summit, due to be held in Pakistan in January next year, has been turned into a big issue by Pakistan. But deep inside, the Pakistanis must be pleased as it has provided them another handle to whip up anti-India passions in their "pure" land now under the control of despots and fanatics.

The whole world knows that the sole purpose of Pakistan in getting Vajpayee in Islamabad is to talk Kashmir with him not SAARC matters. A small matter. The propagandists for Musharraf have forgotten-unless it is another U-turn—that the religious fanatics, now on way to sharing a modicum of power with tile dictator, consider Indian leaders so "impure" that they wash the spots the Indians visit. One of the key Prime Minister-aspirant in Pakistan had led the mission to "clean" with rose water the places visited by Vajpayee during his famous Lahore Bus Yatra.

Is it not the present Pakistan ruler, Musharraf, who says that Kashmir comes before everything else, including economic cooperation and SAARC? And was it not during that Lahore bus journey by Vajpayee that India and Pakistan had signed a memorandum of understanding to talk to each other about WTO issues?

The Pakistanis today are professing their undying love for SAARC. But they cannot pull the wool over Indian eyes. The same Pakistanis have always been grumpy about SAARC. Why? Because the association of seven South Asian nations has not helped Pakistan meet its designs on exploiting the SAARC forum as yet another tool in its global campaign against India. For Pakistan, every international forum is a vehicle for indulging in India-bashing and demanding "freedom" for Kashmir.

At the last SAARC summit in Kathmandu, Nepal, it was no less than the tin pot Pakistani dictator himself who had wailed about the "restrictive"’ nature of SAARC charter which bars rising of bilateral issues. In reality this has hardly "restricted" him-and certainly not "prevented" him—from singing his favorite Ode to Kashmir set to the beat of terrorists guns trained on innocent people. There is no international outing by Musharraf where he does not sing this song.

At the Kathmandu summit in January this year, Musharraf had vitiated the SAARC spirit even before landing in the Nepalese capital. He ignored India’s gesture of allowing him to overfly Indian territory on way to Nepal. Instead, he flew via China and timed a late arrival in Nepal before an obliging western media. This was a well-rehearsed ploy by him to blame India for "forcing" him to take a time-consuming, circuitous route.

This is how Pakistan kindles the SAARC spirit? Naturally, he did not tell the Kathmandu audiences that he had turned down the Indian offer of allowing his plane to overfly Indian territory even when he refused to show similar gestures to Indian leaders travelling to Afghanistan or other countries west of Pakistan. Pakistani propaganda machine, modelled after Hitler’s Germany, thrives on lies, half-truths and distortions.

This kind of exercise is refurbished at times by dramatic gestures or statements before international audiences, such as Musharraf shaking hands with the Prime Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee, at the Kathmandu SAARC summit to show his so-called willingness to strike friendship with an "enemy". The Musharraf handshake was aimed purely at scoring brownie points and also to turn focus on a bilateral (Indo-Pak) issue in a multi-national platform.

Fast becoming an unfriendly neighbour, a la Pakistan, Bangladesh too has made some, muted noises about the desirability of allowing discussions on bilateral issues at SAARC meetings. But Dhaka is yet to go the whole hog with Pakistan on this mater. Pakistan, however, is pressing the services of its ISI to work hard for converting Bangladesh into a fully surrogate nation and then hijack SAARC to its agenda!

The Pakistanis who now question Indian intentions on SAARC need to jog their memory about the last (Kathmandu) SAARC summit when it was decided that the South Asian Preferential Trade Agreement (SAPTA) would be in place by the end of this year. If it is nowhere near that goal, it is only because Pakistan has always played childish games to wriggle out of its commitments on trade related issues. Irrespective of what the WTO might have stipulated, Pakistan is hell bent on refusing to grant the most favoured nation (MFN) status to India. India, on the other hand, had granted that status to Pakistan in 1995.

The fact is that like a petulant delinquent, Pakistan always wants things its way. The Pakistani concept of free trade within South Asia probably means freedom to send arms and ammunition to "freedom fighters" in India, but a ban on the entry of Indian commodities, ostensibly to "protect" the local Pakistani industry. Islamabad is doing its best to plant stories that free trade with India will ruin its economy, forgetting that there are five other nations in the region with even smaller and weaker economies. They are willing to cooperate on economic matters—but not Pakistan—to put some life into SAARC.

In March this year, Pakistan had played host to a meeting of Information Ministers from SAARC nations. Before the Pakistani propaganda machinery went on an overdrive about fears of Indian non-participation in that meeting, Sushma Swaraj’ had landed in Islamabad, flying via Dubai. But never the one to let go of an opportunity to gain some cheap publicity, Musharraf told Sushma Swaraj that he was willing to issue orders-"here and now"—to allow Indian planes to resume over flying Pakistan. Of course, being a dictator lie could talk in "here and now" term, especially when he did not mean it.

At the end of the Information Ministers’ meeting, there was a "declaration" that hoped for free movement of journalists among SAARC members. A free flow of information was also expected among the seven nations. The ground reality about the Pakistan policy on "free movement" of journalists, especially from India, is as ugly as it can get. Pakistan continues to see Indian journalists as saboteurs who should not be allowed easy access within that country; if some of them have to be allowed in, the police and intelligence agencies of Pakistan shadow them day and night in a most obnoxious and boorish manner. Contacts with Pakistanis are neither encouraged nor easy.

The military rulers in Pakistan are perhaps used to treating journalists as subalterns in their Army who can be ordered about. One well-known editor in Pakistan had to quit because he did not sack three journalists held responsible for a story in their paper that quoted the Jaish-e-Mohammed Chief, Omar Saeed Sheikh, claiming a hand in the attacks on Indian Parliament and the Jammu and Kashmir assembly.

After the murder of the American journalist, Daniel Pearl, by Pakistani fundamentalists, Musharraf said that Pearl should not have shown too much of curiosity in pursuing his story to expose the terrorists’ links within the Pakistani establishment.

SAARC cannot hope to have a bright future if Pakistan continues to be allowed to mislead the world by saying one thing and doing just the opposite. The Pakistani design for exploiting SAARC as yet another forum for abusing India and carry on its Kashmir propaganda has to be exposed by India more vigorously than it has in the past.

The Pakistanis are emboldened these days by their "re-discovery" by the US in the wake of 9/11 which has made Islamabad a darling of the West and its media. But India has to grow out of its image, both in Pakistan and the West, that it is a ".soft" state, incapable of hitting out at those who seek to harm the country and its interests.

The other opinion

By M J Akbar

There is one opinion poll which is totally accurate, without any margin of error, devoid of any imponderable variable, and above criticism. It is called an election. There can be no two opinions, as it were, about the results of an election.

The history of elections can rarely have seen a period such as the one we witnessed in the last few weeks. In the last six weeks or so, all the three names dominant in the news have won elections: Saddam Hussein, Osama bin Laden and George Bush.

All right, the elections are hardly alike. In Saddam's Iraq, a second opinion has always been fundamentally injurious to your health. But for some reason the world's most famous dictator found it necessary to throw some kind of moral veil over his regime with an election that gave him 100% of the vote. This was only a marginal improvement upon the past, since Iraqis had traditionally insisted on supporting him with 99% of the vote, so Saddam's popularity in effect increased by only one per cent. But I suppose this complete national unanimity behind the dictator was meant to send a message to someone somewhere that you messed around with Saddam at your own peril. That someone somewhere could not be the Iraqi. The citizens of that unfortunate nation got their message some two decades ago. Was that message meant for George Bush? If so, it should have been formed differently. A 100% vote is too silly an idea to travel anywhere. Saddam may have friends in the west who are not enthusiastic about the Bush Doctrine for Iraq, but that is not because Brother Hussein deserves to win the Nobel Prize for both peace and literature.

Both George Bush and Osama won legitimate elections. Bush's victory was obvious, and will have substantive consequences for the world. His political campaigns of the past year have created a particular mindset in a majority of the Americans, and the rewards are evident. Osama bin Laden and 9/11 created a defined and powerful enemy for America, its first real enemy since the collapse of the Soviet Union. It is always more useful if the enemy has a face, and as long as Osama's face was visible on the screen a mass mobilisation of the American mind was easier. But after the victory in Afghanistan Al Qaeda disappeared into the shadows and Osama went into oblivion: the enemy became an idea rather than an army. George Bush transferred the American angst very adroitly towards a face it could identify, that of Saddam Hussein.

There were many associate, advantages. Osama was an ideological and elusive opponent. This did not make him any less real; what could be more terrifyingly real than 9/11? But America is also a superpower with economic interests and the incumbent White House is focused on energy resources to an unprecedented degree, for reasons both national and personal. Oil is never far away from the White House; but never has oil got this close either. Where Osama evokes a visceral and emotional response, Saddam Hussein is the more rational enemy. A regime change in Baghdad would mean a profitable shift in the manipulation of vast reserves of energy. It would also complete a chain that would extend direct American control from the Caucasus to Kazakhstan.

The United States takes its role as policeman of the world seriously. It has some half a million troops stationed across the globe from traditional post-World War 2 centres like South Korea and Germany to new points like Georgia, where some 200 Special Operations soldiers were deployed earlier this year. Why Georgia? And why is Russia to ready to pay a heavy price for the continued occupation of Chechnya, Georgia's neighbour? Both Georgia and Chechnya actually have fairly limited oil and gas reserves, but both small regions are essential routes for the pipelines that take the huge supplies of the Caspian basin to Turkey and Europe. The Russian pipeline, from Baku to Novorossiysk on the Black Sea, goes through Chechnya. Competing US companies want their pipelines to pass through Georgia and Armenia on their way to the west. The new American presence across Central Asia - from a small deployment of 300 troops on the Chinese border in Kyrgyzstan, bound to increase, to a more comfortable 1,000 troops in Uzbekistan, keeping local Governments in check with their presence and always an excuse for escalation if attacked - is an assertion that the United States has placed a marker on the next energy market.

Iraq is the odd man, or odd power, out. It was not meant to be so, Saddam Hussein was quite a favourite of the American establishment when he provoked Iran into a long, deadly and ruinous war in the Eighties. Saddam was supported by Saudi - Arab money and American hardware. As is well known, George Bush's vice president Dick Cheney is an old hand at making money out of Saddam's Iraq. But Saddam, fooled into complacency by the record of American support, made the dangerous mistake of having ambitions of his own, that came into direct conflict with the plans of his erstwhile friends. The invasion and seizure of Kuwait tipped the balance in his favour, and that tip created unstable equations. Since then Saddam has, cynically, repositioned himself into a leader of the Muslim street, a pillar against neo-colonialism, raging against America and railing against the "sell-out" Governments of the Arab world. The power of this reposition was first demonstrated during the war for the liberation for Kuwait, when, in 1992, despite being on the wrong side of both sense and morality, Saddam Hussein received surging support from the bazaars of the Muslim world.

The present, building confrontation is heavy with various kinds of irony. On the one side, the interests of America and Iran have begun to merge, leading to cautious, and silent strategic cooperation between these antagonists of the last quarter century. Do not expect a dramatic makeover of relations, but do not underestimate Iran's desire for a regime change in Baghdad either. Iran's reasons are not the same as America's. Iran has long believed that the Sunni minority of Iraq has denied the Shia majority its due political rights.

But there is a greater irony at play, which has not been recognised sufficiently. Saddam has serious competition on the Muslim street and bazaar. His name no longer evokes the emotional appeal of a Saladin giving a call for a legitimate Jihad against the foreign Crusaders. That space has been taken over by Osama bin Laden. Saddam's Saladin-equity has been diluted by Osama. Saddam is now perceived as what he really is: another dictator interested primarily in the protection of the wealth and power of his own family, clique and extended circle of exploiters. The mystique that arose suddenly in 1992 has faded. This will help George Bush. In the short run.

There is after all the third victor. Osama bin Laden was the real winner of the fractured elections in Pakistan, if only because he was, for the first time, a legitimate candidate for power through a popular ballot. The alliance of mullahs who won from Balochistan and the Frontier, on the borders of Afghanistan, campaigned in the name of Osama bin Laden. Here was proof that a new hero had arrived, and taken his followers from a lost corner of the political arena to a point where their leader could dream of becoming Prime Minister with the help of a secular force like the Pakistan People's Party. How long this hero will remain in public affections is impossible to say. But even if it proves ephemeral tomorrow, it is a fact today.

There is little doubt that George Bush has radicalised Muslims into anti-American postures. The sweeping victory of an Islamist party in secular Turkey is a dramatic instance of the emerging mood. This does not mean that the Islamist party has become an Osama clone, but it has been boosted by the chances taking place in the Muslim mind across the globe. Change is never equal. It must do its work on existing conditions and not all conditions are equally receptive to it. A forest may sprout in one climate and only a bloom in another, but you know that the seed has taken root.

The only certain thing is uncertainty. No one knows the consequences of minor plays, leave alone something as provocative as a war between Anglo-American forces and Iraq. No one knows the meaning of either victory or defeat. Will an American victory over Saddam release a new Kurdish nation that brings Turkey into the war as it seeks to protect its geographical integrity from Kurdish encroachment? Will Iran extend its arc to the Shia regions or Iraq? How much closer will that bring Iran to the borders of Israel? Will the rising tide of sentiment against political Islam tempt extremists in Washington to dream of partition in Egypt and Indonesia? Uncertainty is a swamp with many sleeping crocodiles and alligators.

The United States of America is passing through a phase of its history when it is too powerful militarily to be defeated by anyone, except itself. More empires die of suicide than defeat. As America negotiates its way through the swamp of uncertainty, it might remember that the world may have but a single superpower left, but it has more than one opinionhar

 



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