EDITORIAL
Flowery
things all!
Even without
flinging the actual flowers around the Chief
Minister has been throwing out enough good vibes.
What with the release of some of the long
incarcerated terrorists and their leaders, the
valley which he is presently visiting must be
full of roses even as December is approaching. So
the university of Kashmir got together with the
cooperative department and bedecked at least a
part of the bullet prone city in an actual
exhibition of flowers for the new head of the
State. Though one would have thought that the
Agri Varasity and the department of floriculture
were the proper collaborators to showcase the
valleys potential for things flowery, but
then there are many, rather too many, right men
in the wrong places in not only the valley but
the whole State. As it turns out there are wrong
men in the right jails and the Government of the
State is committed to correcting that abnormality
too, if the Common Minimum Programme is to be
believed. And the new Government is going quite
systematically about it.
So Malik followed
Bakshi and others are coming out too. Now, there
was no rationale for keeping his leader Yasin
Malik in Jail when the Shakeel Bakshi of the
Rubia kidnapping fame could be free and
frolicking in the flowery valley. And with that
duo, trio or quadroon out, there is little sense
in keeping others in. Thus though the Government
has taken no decision on the Geelani case yet,
there is definitely no point in keeping the aged
cleric in. Or, any one else. Let all the ope and
bloom and engulf the valley in the scents of
their choosing. With that variety in place the
state may get to be even an even more robust
exporter of flowers to the whole world. After
all, flowers are something special to this State
for it includes the valley the original garden on
this side of Eden. And how best to transform this
State, except through an explosion of flowers and
an export of the scented things. As any hakim of
the vintage training would tell you a flower is
better than all the medicines in the
apothecarys chest. Now can there be any
better healing than one with flowers and scents.
What better transformation would one want than to
have a riot of flowers replace the right to
gun current in there.
Of course, raising
flowers is a risky business. They are so
delicate, so prone to being overrun by weeds and
shrubs and cross-pollinated their own jungle
varieties. But then those who grow flowers know
all about the trade. They know how to prune and
cut and clip. So even if it looks that December
is fast approaching, one must trust that the
planter knows about that chilling thing too. He
must, for his is the garden and his the crop. And
then there is little else one can do about it.
Having seen other trades not coming to much, one
has to depend on what little innovation there can
be. And, then the freshness of the flowers, their
vibes and vapors enliven the atmosphere almost
helplessly. As it is there has been enough of
banging and blasting around. If for nothing but a
simple change, the flowery interlude would be a
welcome digression for all the concerned. And who
knows they may actually do that needed cheering
up. So let the thousand flowers bloom anew, the
Maoian connotation and miscarriage
notwithstanding.
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Tasks
before J&K Government
Restoring
health of vital institutions
By M M
Khajooria
During the
last two decades or so Jammu and Kashmir
witnessed a grave erosion of the primary
institutions of the parliamentary
democratic system. The Government came to
be run according to the whims and fancies
of the 'undisputed leader' who
deliberately dwarfed the second line
leadership. Host of sycophants,
time-servers and manipulators amongst the
civil servants inevitably warmed their
way into his favour. They rode rough shot
even over the cabinet ministers, who
found discretion to be better part of the
valour. The single party brute majority
in the legislature and an ineffective and
rudderless opposition facilitated the
degeneration of the constitutional
democracy into a virtual dictatorship. At
the political plane, a class of hangers
on, brokers and blood suckers attached
themselves to the men in authority. They
distributed favours, jobs and contracts,
of course for consideration. Justice,
fair play and equality before law were
just words in the dictionary to be
recited for the benefit of the credolous.
The election to the state assembly has
brought about a revolution of sorts. This
presents an opportunity to cleanse the
system of parasites and 'yes men', to
herald an era of decency in public life
and integrity and transparency in
governance in the bloodied and battered
state of Jammu and Kashmir.
The once
mighty Jammu & Kashmir National
Conference has been humbled at the
husting in a fair trial of strength. This
is the party that under the leadership of
Shiekh Mohd Abdullah, awakened the people
of Kashmir from centuries old slumber,
welded them into a powerful people's
movement and fired it with a secular,
democratic and progressive political
culture. The credit for linking the fate
of the Muslim majority state with secular
India in preference to a theocratic
Pakistan also goes to this party. The
first National Conference Government
under the Premiership of Shiekh Mohd
Abdullah ushered in unprecedented and
till date unmatched revolutionary land
reforms and Debt reconciliation measures
freeing the tenants and poor borrowers
held in bondage by money lenders since
centuries. How these enormous assets were
squandered away is a subject of an
independent and in-depth study. However,
the party with 28 members has a strong
presence in the assembly. Its leadership
has done well to sit in the opposition
and initiate 'serious and honest'
introspection for ascertaining the causes
of the debacle. If the right lessons are
learnt and necessary corrective measures
taken, the party may be able to
rejuvenate itself. In the meantime, its
parliamentary wing should discharge the
constitutional obligations of a
constructive and responsible opposition
acting as the watch dog for people's
interests.
The
Congress-PDP coalition that has emerged
as the alternative stands committed to do
away with the system aberrations and
distortions that became the hall mark of
their predecessors in power Having
contested the elections on a common
anti-National Conference plank and
hammered out a Common Minimum Program,
the combine should be in a position to
seriously and determinedly work for its
implementation. It needs to be emphasized
that even though the popular verdict was
fractured in terms of party preferences,
it was categorical for change and the
rejection of the then ruling party.
The
electorate have a right to expect that
the Congress-PDP combine provide a
Government with a difference a clean,
efficient and transparent government that
really works. The genuineness of its
commitment to the welfare of all the
people of the state irrespective of
regional, communal or ethnic
considerations will be tested in days to
come. The objectives of Peace,
reconciliation and reconstruction should
inspire its policy formulations and
program implementation. They have to make
good the promises held out in the Common
Minimum Program to retain the faith and
confidence of the people. People expect
them not only to resist the temptations
that come with power but be also seen to
be doing so.
The role
of the legislature, the cabinet and the
administrative machine is critical to the
proper working of the democratic and
secular polity that we the people of the
state have chosen to give to ourselves.
Bringing back these institutions on the
rails, infusing propriety, a sense of
purpose, total commitment to the service
of the people in their working and an
unwavering adherence to the constitution
should be on the top of the agenda of the
coalition government.
Legislature
Unfortunately,
the standard of performance in our law
making bodies have suffered gradual
decline over the decades. The down slide
is primarily attributable to the
dwindling values, falling standards of
debate and scant knowledge and
understanding of parliamentary laws,
rules and practices. The ruling party and
the opposition perceive themselves in an
adversarial rather than a complimentary
role. The first and foremost requirement
therefore is to adequately equip our
legislatures with the necessary knowledge
of parliamentary rules, practices and
code of conduct. As a first step precis
containing necessary inputs on
parliamentary etiquette, code of conduct,
the material concerning rules that are
commonly invoked during debates in the
house should be compiled and circulated.
This may be followed by periodical
interactions of the members with
parliamentarians of repute who may be
sitting or former members of the
legislatures. This program will enable
the members to perform in the house with
greater confidence, help raise the
quality of debate and contribute more
meaningfully and effectively towards
issues of public concern and proposed
legislations.
Both the
ruling combine and the opposition will
need to change their perceptions of roles
and attitudes in and outside the House.
The ruling coalition should respect the
views, rights and privileges of the
members of the opposition. Their
perspectives and concerns should be
received with an open mind and accorded
due consideration. The opposition, on its
part should be responsible as well as
responsive. It should be conceded and
demonstrated by both sides that the house
is a forum for informed, intelligent and
serious debate on matters of public
interest. The quality of arguments and
not the exercise of lung and muscle
powers or sheer weight of numbers should
determine the outcome of debates... The
opposition will be well-advised to put to
gather a Shadow cabinet., which should be
provided access to necessary information
by the Government on issues that come
before the assembly. This will enrich the
debate content, make the ministers work
harder and significantly serve the public
interest.
The
Cabinet system
The
founding fathers of our constitution
opted for the parliamentary form of
government with the cabinet system at its
core. The system works according to the
cardinal principles of Collective
responsibility, Intra-cabinet
responsibility or cabinet solidarity and
Political accountability. These
principles and the universally
acknowledged practices of cabinet system
suffered in J&K severe violence
during last decade and a half or so. As
the gap between the stature of the chief
minister and his cabinet colleagues
widened, these principles began to be
observed more and more in breach. The
powers of cabinet got concentrated in the
Chief Minister. More often than not, he
preferred to act on the advice of a
coterie of favorite bureaucrats rather
than consult with his cabinet colleagues.
Even policy decisions were at times
announced by the Chief on his own. When
ever the Chief Minister preempted the
cabinet decisions, the worthy ministers
simply thump printed on the dotted line.
In defence, it was argued that the
ministers who retained their positions in
the Government only so long as they
enjoyed the confidence of the Chief
hardly had any choice but to toe the
line. The senior ministers, however were
compensated with freedom to run their
department more or less as their
fiefdoms. The Chief Minister seldom asked
for their advice. The ministers thought
it prudent not to offer any on their own.
No wonder system paralysis and
administrative chaos over took the organs
of governance.
The
debilitating distortions that plague the
system have to be corrected without any
waste of time. As it is, a multi-party
coalition is bound to insist on
functioning according to the classical
form of cabinet system of governance.
Chief Minister, Mufti Mohd Syed is on
record that all interests would be
involved in decision making. Now, it is
up to the coalition partners to ensure
revival of the system and make it tick.
As a first step, the Rules of Business
need to be revised.. The Business Rules
that emerged after the review and
revision in late sixties could perhaps
serve as the basis. The revision then
undertake at the instance of the late
Pandit Trilochan Dutt restored the
cabinet to its original stature as the
supreme policy making body and apex
executive. It is universally recognized
that the authority and responsibility
have to go together. The cabinet
ministers doing an onerous and demanding
job and accountable to the people have to
be empowered as per the tenants of the
Cabinet system. And a system is as good
as the men and women who work it.
The
Services
Of the
many assets the British bequeathed to
India at the time of independence, the
most valuable were the Civil
Services-Indian Civil Service and Indian
Police. These consisted of a small
aristocracy of 'highly educated,
carefully selected by difficult
competitive examination, remarkably
adaptable, almost entirely free from
corruption, extremely devoted to duty and
perhaps more important of all, Pan Indian
rather than regional or provincial in
loyalties''. The 'steel frame' was
designed to be a link between successive
ministries and the repository of
principles and practices which endure
while governments come and go. The
expectations from the All India Services
were aptly summed up by H N Kunzru, one
of the most eminent parliamentarians that
India has produced. While speaking in the
Constituent Assembly he said that it was
important ''to secure for the state,
efficient public servants, who will serve
all the people equally well and always
watch over the interests of the
communities and state as a whole.''
The All
India Services in the country, especially
in our state hardly bear any resemblance
to the model. Though extended to Jammu
& Kashmir in 1958, these actually
became a regular feature from 1965., when
the first batch of direct recruits was
allotted to the state. The 'outside
talent' was , of course tapped even
during Maharajah's regime when integrity
and efficiency were the norms. This
practice continued even after the popular
government took over. The real problem
arose when direct recruits attained
senior positions and some of them found
it profitable to jostle for positions of
proximity to and favors from the
political masters. The emergence of the
'Syndicate' and 'Indicate' in the state
bureaucracy and the mess they made of the
administration is by now a part of the
history.
The
monopoly of power in one party reduced
the state into a virtual monarchy minus
its good features. In the ensuing
environment those driven by raw
self-interest and endowed with less stout
moral fiber made hay... Oath to the
constitution and ethics of service became
irrelevant. Competent, self respecting
and officers of integrity were side lined
or 'shunted off' to Delhi on deputation.
The proximity to rulers, the ability to
please and eagerness to bend rules to
comply with the wishes of lords and
masters opened up doors to power and
privilege. The situation seemed to merit
the harsh judgment by UB Kulkarni who
wrote, ''India is thus burdened with a
vast and financially ruinous army of
Government officials, most of whom ought
to have pursued some other vocations
instead of creating an illusions that
they are capable of assisting their
political masters in an era of
socialism.''
To be able
to make good its commitments to the
electorate the Coalition Government would
need civil servants of integrity,
competence and courage who tender advice
strictly according to law, rules and
regulations without fudging the facts,
freely and fearlessly. Minions though
good for ego trips are no substitute for
officers of personnel and intellectual
integrity and invariably become a
liability. Fortunately, there is no
dearth of good officers in the state
cadres. The Government has only to look
around for those who fit the classical
profile. Once the overall administrative
environment changes and services come
into their own, the service of people
will bounce back at the center of their
concerns. This could well be the
beginning of a new era of hope, justice,
good governance and peace in Jammu and
Kashmir.
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Dialogue
with militants
TALES OF TRAVESTY
By Dr.
Jitendra Singh
An
unnecessary and infact avoidable
controversy has appeared in certain
quarters over the Chief Minister Mufti
Mohd Sayeed's suggestion that the Govt of
India must initiate a dialogue with all
sections of opinion including militants
groups in Kashmir Valley. Much of this
controversy is unwarranted and possibly
owes its origin to misinterpretation of
the very idea of talking to separatists
and other alienated sections in the
Valley.
Mufti
or no Mufti, the point being conveniently
missed is that the idea of a dialogue
with militants and separatists is not new
and has been in the past directly or
indirectly supported by most of the major
political parties including the Bharatiya
Janata Party (BJP) and the National
Conference. The Kashmir Committee headed
by Ram Jethmalani and the earlier K.C.
Pant initiative were primarily mooted by
the Vajpayee Government at the Centre and
apparently endorsed by the Farooq
Government at the State level albeit
amidst allegations that the National
Conference was not actually sincere about
facilitating any such move which
impliedly sought to prop up another rival
party or group in Kashmir.
Now, what
is wrong if Mufti Mohd Sayeed also
advocates an open-minded dialogue with
militants? Simply because Mufti's
People's Democratic Party (PDP) has its
base in the Valley and it identifies
better with the Kashmiri masses should
not as such negate or devalue the merit
of a suggestion which also enjoys the
approval of the Congress and other
mainstream parties like the Communists
and the Janata Dal.
The
current Kashmir scenario is evolving very
fast and it is time now to make a clear
demarcation between local Kashmiri
militants and the foreign sponsored
militants exported from Pakistan,
Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, Sudan and a
host of other countries. At the same
time, it is important to recognise the
fact that the number of local militants
has gone down considerably and people's
support to militancy does not exist any
more. Those of the local youth who are
still turning to militancy, do so either
because of allurement of money or because
of cohersion at gun point. It is
precisely this section of youth who need
to be salvaged by being offered suitable
employment and means of livelihood
besides being protected from armed
intimidation by foreign sponsored
agencies on the one hand and the State
police force on the other hand.
The
Kashmir imbroglio has persisted for a
little too long. It is now running out of
its self-limiting course. The impasse has
to be broken sooner or later and this can
be achieved only through dialogue. If
that be so, then the question is why not
initiate dialogue sooner than later?
Without compromising the security of the
nation or the innocent people and without
showing any leniency to those who refuse
to surrender the gun even when given a
chance, a dialogue is certainly the most
viable option available.
Mahatma
Gandhi used to say, what use is freedom
or "Azaadi" if it leaves behind
a trail of orphans, widows and grieving
parents. This advice from the Mahatma has
still not lost relevance and should
infact serve as a cue for each player on
the Kashmir stage and most of all for the
common man who is a loser both ways
------ whether he gets killed himself or
survives in loneliness to mourn the
killing of his loved ones. Umapathy's predicament
is summed up in the poetic dilemma "Main
Bach Bhi Jaun To Tanhaai Mar Dalegi, Mere
Kabile Ka Har Fard Qatl-gah Mein
Hai!"
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Pakistan
sullies saarc spirit
By Atul
Chowshish
After the
present dictator, Gen Parvez Musharraf,
took over the reins of power in
Islamabad, Pakistan has been changing its
spots with amazing frequency. The process
that started with Musharraf disowning
(deceptively, as it turned out) the
Policy of nurturing terrorism in his
country has since travelled many miles to
focus at the moment on Pakistans
new found love for South Asia Association
of Regional Cooperation (SAARC).
This is
evident from the hue and cry being raised
by Pakistan over the so-called Indian
attempts to undermine SAARC. India has
been accused by Pakistan of bringing in
"extraneous" issues- related to
economic cooperation in the region-while
Pakistan has claimed for itself a model
role (!) in doing everything to make
economic cooperation among SAARC members
a grand success. Islamabad is making
outrageous statements to hide its poor
track record in economic cooperation in
the region.
The
refusal by India to give a categorical
assurance at this stage that the Prime
Minister, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, will
attend the next SAARC summit, due to be
held in Pakistan in January next year,
has been turned into a big issue by
Pakistan. But deep inside, the Pakistanis
must be pleased as it has provided them
another handle to whip up anti-India
passions in their "pure" land
now under the control of despots and
fanatics.
The whole
world knows that the sole purpose of
Pakistan in getting Vajpayee in Islamabad
is to talk Kashmir with him not SAARC
matters. A small matter. The
propagandists for Musharraf have
forgotten-unless it is another
U-turnthat the religious fanatics,
now on way to sharing a modicum of power
with tile dictator, consider Indian
leaders so "impure" that they
wash the spots the Indians visit. One of
the key Prime Minister-aspirant in
Pakistan had led the mission to
"clean" with rose water the
places visited by Vajpayee during his
famous Lahore Bus Yatra.
Is it not
the present Pakistan ruler, Musharraf,
who says that Kashmir comes before
everything else, including economic
cooperation and SAARC? And was it not
during that Lahore bus journey by
Vajpayee that India and Pakistan had
signed a memorandum of understanding to
talk to each other about WTO issues?
The
Pakistanis today are professing their
undying love for SAARC. But they cannot
pull the wool over Indian eyes. The same
Pakistanis have always been grumpy about
SAARC. Why? Because the association of
seven South Asian nations has not helped
Pakistan meet its designs on exploiting
the SAARC forum as yet another tool in
its global campaign against India. For
Pakistan, every international forum is a
vehicle for indulging in India-bashing
and demanding "freedom" for
Kashmir.
At the
last SAARC summit in Kathmandu, Nepal, it
was no less than the tin pot Pakistani
dictator himself who had wailed about the
"restrictive" nature of
SAARC charter which bars rising of
bilateral issues. In reality this has
hardly "restricted" him-and
certainly not "prevented"
himfrom singing his favorite Ode to
Kashmir set to the beat of terrorists
guns trained on innocent people. There is
no international outing by Musharraf
where he does not sing this song.
At the
Kathmandu summit in January this year,
Musharraf had vitiated the SAARC spirit
even before landing in the Nepalese
capital. He ignored Indias gesture
of allowing him to overfly Indian
territory on way to Nepal. Instead, he
flew via China and timed a late arrival
in Nepal before an obliging western
media. This was a well-rehearsed ploy by
him to blame India for
"forcing" him to take a
time-consuming, circuitous route.
This is
how Pakistan kindles the SAARC spirit?
Naturally, he did not tell the Kathmandu
audiences that he had turned down the
Indian offer of allowing his plane to
overfly Indian territory even when he
refused to show similar gestures to
Indian leaders travelling to Afghanistan
or other countries west of Pakistan.
Pakistani propaganda machine, modelled
after Hitlers Germany, thrives on
lies, half-truths and distortions.
This kind
of exercise is refurbished at times by
dramatic gestures or statements before
international audiences, such as
Musharraf shaking hands with the Prime
Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee, at the
Kathmandu SAARC summit to show his so-called
willingness to strike friendship with an
"enemy". The Musharraf
handshake was aimed purely at scoring
brownie points and also to turn focus on
a bilateral (Indo-Pak) issue in a
multi-national platform.
Fast
becoming an unfriendly neighbour, a la
Pakistan, Bangladesh too has made some,
muted noises about the desirability of
allowing discussions on bilateral issues
at SAARC meetings. But Dhaka is yet to go
the whole hog with Pakistan on this
mater. Pakistan, however, is pressing the
services of its ISI to work hard for
converting Bangladesh into a fully
surrogate nation and then hijack SAARC to
its agenda!
The
Pakistanis who now question Indian
intentions on SAARC need to jog their
memory about the last (Kathmandu) SAARC
summit when it was decided that the South
Asian Preferential Trade Agreement
(SAPTA) would be in place by the end of
this year. If it is nowhere near that
goal, it is only because Pakistan has
always played childish games to wriggle
out of its commitments on trade related
issues. Irrespective of what the WTO
might have stipulated, Pakistan is hell
bent on refusing to grant the most
favoured nation (MFN) status to India.
India, on the other hand, had granted
that status to Pakistan in 1995.
The fact
is that like a petulant delinquent,
Pakistan always wants things its way. The
Pakistani concept of free trade within
South Asia probably means freedom to send
arms and ammunition to "freedom
fighters" in India, but a ban on the
entry of Indian commodities, ostensibly
to "protect" the local
Pakistani industry. Islamabad is doing
its best to plant stories that free trade
with India will ruin its economy,
forgetting that there are five other
nations in the region with even smaller
and weaker economies. They are willing to
cooperate on economic mattersbut
not Pakistanto put some life into
SAARC.
In March
this year, Pakistan had played host to a
meeting of Information Ministers from
SAARC nations. Before the Pakistani
propaganda machinery went on an overdrive
about fears of Indian non-participation
in that meeting, Sushma Swaraj had
landed in Islamabad, flying via Dubai.
But never the one to let go of an
opportunity to gain some cheap publicity,
Musharraf told Sushma Swaraj that he was
willing to issue orders-"here and
now"to allow Indian planes to
resume over flying Pakistan. Of course,
being a dictator lie could talk in
"here and now" term, especially
when he did not mean it.
At the end
of the Information Ministers
meeting, there was a
"declaration" that hoped for
free movement of journalists among SAARC
members. A free flow of information was
also expected among the seven nations.
The ground reality about the Pakistan
policy on "free movement" of
journalists, especially from India, is as
ugly as it can get. Pakistan continues to
see Indian journalists as saboteurs who
should not be allowed easy access within
that country; if some of them have to be
allowed in, the police and intelligence
agencies of Pakistan shadow them day and
night in a most obnoxious and boorish
manner. Contacts with Pakistanis are
neither encouraged nor easy.
The
military rulers in Pakistan are perhaps
used to treating journalists as
subalterns in their Army who can be
ordered about. One well-known editor in
Pakistan had to quit because he did not
sack three journalists held responsible
for a story in their paper that quoted
the Jaish-e-Mohammed Chief, Omar Saeed
Sheikh, claiming a hand in the attacks on
Indian Parliament and the Jammu and
Kashmir assembly.
After the
murder of the American journalist, Daniel
Pearl, by Pakistani fundamentalists,
Musharraf said that Pearl should not have
shown too much of curiosity in pursuing
his story to expose the terrorists
links within the Pakistani establishment.
SAARC
cannot hope to have a bright future if
Pakistan continues to be allowed to
mislead the world by saying one thing and
doing just the opposite. The Pakistani
design for exploiting SAARC as yet
another forum for abusing India and carry
on its Kashmir propaganda has to be
exposed by India more vigorously than it
has in the past.
The
Pakistanis are emboldened these days by
their "re-discovery" by the US
in the wake of 9/11 which has made
Islamabad a darling of the West and its
media. But India has to grow out of its
image, both in Pakistan and the West,
that it is a ".soft" state,
incapable of hitting out at those who
seek to harm the country and its
interests.
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The
other opinion
By M J Akbar
There is one
opinion poll which is totally accurate, without
any margin of error, devoid of any imponderable
variable, and above criticism. It is called an
election. There can be no two opinions, as it
were, about the results of an election.
The history of
elections can rarely have seen a period such as
the one we witnessed in the last few weeks. In
the last six weeks or so, all the three names
dominant in the news have won elections: Saddam
Hussein, Osama bin Laden and George Bush.
All right, the
elections are hardly alike. In Saddam's Iraq, a
second opinion has always been fundamentally
injurious to your health. But for some reason the
world's most famous dictator found it necessary
to throw some kind of moral veil over his regime
with an election that gave him 100% of the vote.
This was only a marginal improvement upon the
past, since Iraqis had traditionally insisted on
supporting him with 99% of the vote, so Saddam's
popularity in effect increased by only one per
cent. But I suppose this complete national
unanimity behind the dictator was meant to send a
message to someone somewhere that you messed
around with Saddam at your own peril. That
someone somewhere could not be the Iraqi. The
citizens of that unfortunate nation got their
message some two decades ago. Was that message
meant for George Bush? If so, it should have been
formed differently. A 100% vote is too silly an
idea to travel anywhere. Saddam may have friends
in the west who are not enthusiastic about the
Bush Doctrine for Iraq, but that is not because
Brother Hussein deserves to win the Nobel Prize
for both peace and literature.
Both George Bush
and Osama won legitimate elections. Bush's
victory was obvious, and will have substantive
consequences for the world. His political
campaigns of the past year have created a
particular mindset in a majority of the
Americans, and the rewards are evident. Osama bin
Laden and 9/11 created a defined and powerful
enemy for America, its first real enemy since the
collapse of the Soviet Union. It is always more
useful if the enemy has a face, and as long as
Osama's face was visible on the screen a mass
mobilisation of the American mind was easier. But
after the victory in Afghanistan Al Qaeda
disappeared into the shadows and Osama went into
oblivion: the enemy became an idea rather than an
army. George Bush transferred the American angst
very adroitly towards a face it could identify,
that of Saddam Hussein.
There were many
associate, advantages. Osama was an ideological
and elusive opponent. This did not make him any
less real; what could be more terrifyingly real
than 9/11? But America is also a superpower with
economic interests and the incumbent White House
is focused on energy resources to an
unprecedented degree, for reasons both national
and personal. Oil is never far away from the
White House; but never has oil got this close
either. Where Osama evokes a visceral and
emotional response, Saddam Hussein is the more
rational enemy. A regime change in Baghdad would
mean a profitable shift in the manipulation of
vast reserves of energy. It would also complete a
chain that would extend direct American control
from the Caucasus to Kazakhstan.
The United States
takes its role as policeman of the world
seriously. It has some half a million troops
stationed across the globe from traditional
post-World War 2 centres like South Korea and
Germany to new points like Georgia, where some
200 Special Operations soldiers were deployed
earlier this year. Why Georgia? And why is Russia
to ready to pay a heavy price for the continued
occupation of Chechnya, Georgia's neighbour? Both
Georgia and Chechnya actually have fairly limited
oil and gas reserves, but both small regions are
essential routes for the pipelines that take the
huge supplies of the Caspian basin to Turkey and
Europe. The Russian pipeline, from Baku to
Novorossiysk on the Black Sea, goes through
Chechnya. Competing US companies want their
pipelines to pass through Georgia and Armenia on
their way to the west. The new American presence
across Central Asia - from a small deployment of
300 troops on the Chinese border in Kyrgyzstan,
bound to increase, to a more comfortable 1,000
troops in Uzbekistan, keeping local Governments
in check with their presence and always an excuse
for escalation if attacked - is an assertion that
the United States has placed a marker on the next
energy market.
Iraq is the odd
man, or odd power, out. It was not meant to be
so, Saddam Hussein was quite a favourite of the
American establishment when he provoked Iran into
a long, deadly and ruinous war in the Eighties.
Saddam was supported by Saudi - Arab money and
American hardware. As is well known, George
Bush's vice president Dick Cheney is an old hand
at making money out of Saddam's Iraq. But Saddam,
fooled into complacency by the record of American
support, made the dangerous mistake of having
ambitions of his own, that came into direct
conflict with the plans of his erstwhile friends.
The invasion and seizure of Kuwait tipped the
balance in his favour, and that tip created
unstable equations. Since then Saddam has,
cynically, repositioned himself into a leader of
the Muslim street, a pillar against
neo-colonialism, raging against America and
railing against the "sell-out"
Governments of the Arab world. The power of this
reposition was first demonstrated during the war
for the liberation for Kuwait, when, in 1992,
despite being on the wrong side of both sense and
morality, Saddam Hussein received surging support
from the bazaars of the Muslim world.
The present,
building confrontation is heavy with various
kinds of irony. On the one side, the interests of
America and Iran have begun to merge, leading to
cautious, and silent strategic cooperation
between these antagonists of the last quarter
century. Do not expect a dramatic makeover of
relations, but do not underestimate Iran's desire
for a regime change in Baghdad either. Iran's
reasons are not the same as America's. Iran has
long believed that the Sunni minority of Iraq has
denied the Shia majority its due political
rights.
But there is a
greater irony at play, which has not been
recognised sufficiently. Saddam has serious
competition on the Muslim street and bazaar. His
name no longer evokes the emotional appeal of a
Saladin giving a call for a legitimate Jihad
against the foreign Crusaders. That space has
been taken over by Osama bin Laden. Saddam's
Saladin-equity has been diluted by Osama. Saddam
is now perceived as what he really is: another
dictator interested primarily in the protection
of the wealth and power of his own family, clique
and extended circle of exploiters. The mystique
that arose suddenly in 1992 has faded. This will
help George Bush. In the short run.
There is after all
the third victor. Osama bin Laden was the real
winner of the fractured elections in Pakistan, if
only because he was, for the first time, a
legitimate candidate for power through a popular
ballot. The alliance of mullahs who won from
Balochistan and the Frontier, on the borders of
Afghanistan, campaigned in the name of Osama bin
Laden. Here was proof that a new hero had
arrived, and taken his followers from a lost
corner of the political arena to a point where
their leader could dream of becoming Prime
Minister with the help of a secular force like
the Pakistan People's Party. How long this hero
will remain in public affections is impossible to
say. But even if it proves ephemeral tomorrow, it
is a fact today.
There is little
doubt that George Bush has radicalised Muslims
into anti-American postures. The sweeping victory
of an Islamist party in secular Turkey is a
dramatic instance of the emerging mood. This does
not mean that the Islamist party has become an
Osama clone, but it has been boosted by the
chances taking place in the Muslim mind across
the globe. Change is never equal. It must do its
work on existing conditions and not all
conditions are equally receptive to it. A forest
may sprout in one climate and only a bloom in
another, but you know that the seed has taken
root.
The only certain
thing is uncertainty. No one knows the
consequences of minor plays, leave alone
something as provocative as a war between
Anglo-American forces and Iraq. No one knows the
meaning of either victory or defeat. Will an
American victory over Saddam release a new
Kurdish nation that brings Turkey into the war as
it seeks to protect its geographical integrity
from Kurdish encroachment? Will Iran extend its
arc to the Shia regions or Iraq? How much closer
will that bring Iran to the borders of Israel?
Will the rising tide of sentiment against
political Islam tempt extremists in Washington to
dream of partition in Egypt and Indonesia?
Uncertainty is a swamp with many sleeping
crocodiles and alligators.
The United States
of America is passing through a phase of its
history when it is too powerful militarily to be
defeated by anyone, except itself. More empires
die of suicide than defeat. As America negotiates
its way through the swamp of uncertainty, it
might remember that the world may have but a
single superpower left, but it has more than one
opinionhar
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