Daily Excelsior... Editorial

EDITORIAL

Changeover in Kashmir
Men, Matters, Memories

By M L Kotru

I have rarely, if at all, in the past half century of my professional life felt like attending swearing-in-ceremonies. I was too .......more

KPs in counting, again!...............
Yours Randomly,

By Dr. R L Bhat

Mehbooba Mufti’s extensive tour of the migrant camps has brought deserved light from the new Government to .....more

The flawed thinking continues

By S.V. Vaidyanathan

The RBI’s mid-term credit policy statement for 2002-03 confirms two relatively less-discussed tendencies in the Indian .........more

Wealth from waste

By Radhakrishna Rao

In recent years, the problem of disposing of an ever increasing mountain of urban ..more

EDITORIAL

Hurriyat speak

It is nice to hear that Hurriyat is ready to talk about anything to bring peace to the State. The conglomerate must have realised, albeit belatedly, that the people of the State are against the terrorism and violence and want peace to return. The recent election showed it amply, clearly, repeatedly. Nobody could have missed it. But accepting that fact is what matters. Is the Hurriyat now convinced that there is no use in perpetrating or supporting violence, that peace and peaceful means are the only, was for all civilized people? Again, can the fact that it has chosen to voice that wish through the Mir Waiz, whose earlier utterances on peace acted as a red herring to the Hurriyat, be taken as proof that the conglomerate is now ready to think with its more enlightened member? All those things may have to be cleared before Hurriyat’s words can be taken as true cogitations. Else it transpires too late that the outfit has its own interpretations of peace, participation and democracy as the Jethmalani committee discovered during its exertions to bring the Hurriyat to choose the ballot. It failed and so did Hurriyat fail to find a constituency.

Today Hurriyat has to think rather deeply to tell who it represents in the State. Of course, being confined to the valley they have never claimed to speak for Jammu or the Ladakh regions. Now, within the valley the people have their own voices, their legitimately true representatives, some of whom are ex-Hurriyat men who found the plans of the Hurriyat too far for any solution and went to the people. They today sit in the assembly, deciding the fate of the State. So who does Hurriyat stand for, who does it want to talk about? It would be fine if the Hurriyat wants to talk on behalf of the terrorists themselves who put the two-dozen parties together and keep them there. Though, for the forms sake, Hurriyat has refuted that they have any truck with the terrorists, fem, in the valley and fewer still outside it believe that. But here one is talking of influence and clout, the authority that can make others accept your word and permit you to speak for them. That is for the terrorists to give not for anybody to claim. As they say, the hand that rocks the cradle rules. But whose is the hand and who is doing the rocking and who rules over whom, must be well established before any claims are made.

Then there is the question of what the terrorists are to be talked about. That they would be paid the money they spent on buying their weapons and that they would be given fares back home? Certainly, none can expect sovereign Governments to talk to marauders standing on the strength of their guns except the terms of their, surrender and any general pardons they may get. There can be talks to the people of the State who have eschewed the path of violence, as the elected Government has indicated, it would be going about as it deems fit, within its own sphere. It is difficult to see much role for the Hurriyat there, especially when they have been openly dismissive of the Kashmiris who defied their erstwhile masters and parted company with the gun. As it is the Hurriyat still appears to be taking orders from the terrorists sitting across the border. Or, at least the terrorists there believe they can order them about. The Hurriyat would do well to clear that confusion to discover where it stands.

Taxed reforms

Tax reform is an issue that all believe must be undertaken but few are ready to implement. The Kelkar recommendations on the tax reform appear to have been caught in the cache before they are even out. And there it would sit with countless other recommendations to reform the taxation in this country-all commissioned, all concluded and all sidestepped. The situation is much like the economic reforms before the nineties when huge reports and recommendations used to be commissioned and collected about reforming the economy. Then too all believed that the control regime of license Raj was killing the economy and that the opening up the economy was the answer to development and progress, but none found enough courage to do it. All liked to maintain the benefits-they, are mostly political, meant for the politicians and parties and not the people-and improve the economy. But that is not done. You cannot have sops and serious economic thinking together. It is to the lasting credit of Narasimha Rao-Man Mohan Singh team that it threw away that foggy thinking and reformed the economy. A similar bold initiative is needed to set the tax regime in order.

Else, it is the same sops and salvations story- sops for the people and salvations for the political parties-without any succor for the nation. The sops have another aspect. If you dole out bits and crumbs to others, you can also take in other bigger bites home. But that scheme of spreading the cake all over leaves the nation without the bread. And that is what the tax sops are doing. The political parties can dole favours out, the group and lobby interests are protected, and the nation can go abegging, like Delhi asking for Japanese aid to build toilets along the banks of Yamuna! Or, like the Government giving tax exemption to big agriculture incomes in the name of poor and subjecting the peons and petty clerks to taxes. If that is called extending the tax base, by the officials of the ministry itself as the Economic Times report on Kelkar reforms, none can hope for any rationalization of the tax monster. Yet the taxes must be reformed, as drastically as the economic liberalisation of the nineties. Quicker, too. And, it cannot be done with calculations of political and party interests, or impact on short-term sops. There is a crying need for a thorough overhaul of the tax regime and that is that.

Changeover in Kashmir
Men, Matters, Memories

By M L Kotru

I have rarely, if at all, in the past half century of my professional life felt like attending swearing-in-ceremonies. I was too young and still in college when Nehru was sworn in as Independent India's first Prime Minister. In retrospect, that is the one I would have given my right arm to watch. And there was no TV then. So, all you got to know of the ceremony was courtesy All India Radio and its running commentary on the event and of course later via the Films Division news clips at the local cinema. All cinemas then used to show a 10-minute news clip prepared by the Films Division on the lines of British Movietone clips during the 'World War-II years which were must viewing then. So how come I chose to fly out to Srinagar to witness the swearing-in of Mufti Mohammad Sayeed's Government in Jammu and Kashmir? Was it that I had over the years developed a soft corner for the man as he soldiered on fighting a lone battle as it were, with National Conference founded by the stalwarts of the freedom struggle in Jammu and Kashmir led by Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah? Mufti must have been at junior school when the Sheikh founded the National Conference and no doubt an admirer of the tallest Kashmiri leader then. Mufti, a younger man, flirted with politics and politicians after Sheikh's Government fell in 1953. As time passed by Mufti Sayeed joined other political workers of the day, serving over the years, as a Minister in Kashmir. But it was his fight against the Sheikh dynasty that put him in the limelight with Indira Gandhi picking-him up to lead the Congress party in the State. It was an arduous task given the respect Sheikh Abdullah commanded. But Mufti, if only by his doggedness, managed to get under the Sheikh's skin. The Sheikh in turn hated his name, his looks and his party, all in equal measure. That was a Abdullah habit, hating people who didn't accept his stalwart status. Mufti continued to lead the Congress even after it relinquished power to, ironically, the Sheikh. The Sheikh's party was virtually un-represented in the Assembly then. Mufti's presence even so continued to irritate the Sheikh, Rajiv Gandhi called him away to join the Cabinet but Mufti's heart continued to be in Kashmir. He resigned from the Rajiv Cabinet after the Prime Minister forced a marriage of convenience between the National Conference, now headed by Farooq Abdullah, and the Congress. Mufti ended up as V. P. Singh's Home Minister at the Centre but the coalition of which he was a member was as fragile as they usually are. Mufti was elected to Lok Sabha once again and his daughter Mehooba to the Kashmir Assembly. This was when he had returned to the Congress fold briefly with Mehbooba serving as Congress legislature party leader. The return to Congress was shortlived though with Sonia at the helm. The father-daughter duo founded the regional Peoples Democratic Party. In less than four years with the untiring Mehbooba as its mascort the PDP established itself in the Valley - much to the chagrin of Farooq Abdullah and his son, Omar. Came the elections and the PDP virtually wiped out the National Conference in the Valley much to the relief of the people at large. Well, Mufti's PDP may not have got a majority in the House; in reality, it bagged a measly 16 seats. The important thing though was that it eased the Abdullah hold on the Valley. Farooq and his young son seemed so sure of their victory that the father had hoped for a major political role for himself at the Centre, and that Omar would succeed him to the "Gaddi" in Kashmir. It's the magnitude of the defeat which Mufti inflicted on the NC that made Mufti's victory so remarkable. Mufti and his daughter were now seen as the new power centre in the Valley. Yet, the Congress party with its 20 odd seats, almost all of these from Jammu, would not yield to Mufti. It dillied and it dallied. It would align with PDP but only if its nominee was the Chief Minister. The controversy dragged for two weeks before Sonia formally realized the folly of acting the dog in the manger. The evident reluctance to compromise was indicative of the party's feudal mindset. The solution to it, finally accepted, was staring it in the face from day one. After all the alienation had been patently noticeable in the Valley, not so much in Ladakh and Jammu though odd voices of dissent could be heard there too. There was obviously the need for a party from the Valley to take over the Chief Ministership. Yet the Congress took two weeks before saying "yes" to the reality of Mufti.

Apart from the manner in which Congress eventually accepted the secondary role in Kashmir the more significant development to my mind was the eclipse of the Abdullah dynasty which the Mufti's victory seems to signify. The Abdullahs, beginning with the Sheikh's emergence as the unquestioned leader of the State's people in 1929, onward had had a uniquely predominant say in matters related to Jammu and Kashmir. The Valley had been their bastion for all these years. They had ruled the State for an uninterrupted 27 years and looked set to continue even longer. Mufti Sayeed and his daughter Mehbooba upset all that, aided and a betted no doubt by the self destructive manipulations of the Abdullahs themselves.

Questions will continue to be asked about Mufti's survival in the Kashmir hot seat. But to my mind he may have a surprise up his sleeves for the doubting Thomases. For one thing the Kashmiris have longed for a change for the past 15 years. For another Mufti with his hands on grassroots approach may provide just the kind of healing, the festering Kashmiri sore needs. And with daughter Mehbooba opting out of the Government, she will serve both as watchdog and a constructed in-house critic.

To return to my theme, it was the epoch-making dimension of this changeover in Kashmir that drove me to witness the swearing-in of Mufti Sayeed as the Chief Minister. May be it also marked the end of the Abdullah dynasty rule in Jammu and Kashmir.

KPs in counting, again!...............
Yours Randomly,

By Dr. R L Bhat

Mehbooba Mufti’s extensive tour of the migrant camps has brought deserved light from the new Government to bear on the problems of the Kashmiri Pandits. The last time one heard of a Government talking of its concern for them was when the Central Government announced its package for the return of the Hindus to their ancestral homes in the valley. The plan inspite of the big crores it spoke of was in one word ‘dismissive’; it dismissed the Pandits, their problems and threw a cheque at their face almost saying ‘take it and return to the valley’. That it came from the Vajpayee Government, which has long been perceived as deeply cognizant of the problems that led to the exodus of the aborigines of Kashmir, made it into a virtual travesty. The clear impression was that the Government wanted to wash its hands off the migrants’ problem. The attitude was betrayed again when the meager enhancement in the migrants’ dole was miscarried, reportedly by the State Government, nullifying the sole assurance the Prime Minister had given to the migrants on his visit to the State.

The most hurtful aspect of the whole scheme was the raging insensitivity. This migration, like the other migrations that have since taken place from other areas of the State and are still on, is primarily a problem of security. The people were not safe, their safety had not been assured and they found safer places themselves as any people, any-where would do. Such people migrate even to other nations and continents. We have examples from all over the world, the most recent ones being from the European continent, of people under persecution fleeing hither and thither in search for safety. That the Kashmir Pandits were the pointed targets of the terrorists-called ‘Mujahids’ then-is well known not only to the people and politicians of the valley but to others too. Yet there was an attempt to sweep this fact under the dirty carpet. The last Government after making initial noises went on to impute to migrants a vested interest not to return to their homes. Its home minister went a step ahead, saying that gun could not be eliminated and that the migrants had to return irrespective of whether the terrorism was controlled or not. None saw, how heartless a departure it was from the ‘return with dignity’ commitment; none there seemed to bother about that either.

Mehbooba, like her campaign in the valley has focused on this human aspect. That she went from camp to camp, spoke to people and aired views that addressed the hearts indicates that the approach here is different. The experience of having lived among the common people till yesterday is after all a great asset; you see the problems as the sufferers see them. And that is most important if you want to solve the problems. Migrants face a number of problems. They are up against the day-to-day challenges of living an exiled life, fending for themselves and their families and gathering enough hope to live and fight for another day. There are mundane problems of water supply and electricty hygiene and sanitation, healthcare and education in the camps. The very camps as laid and erected are an affront to the human dignity. The non-campers find their meager resources eaten up by unnatural expenditures. There is suffocation, literal in the hovels they are living in and figurative at the community level where they have neither say nor voice. Even their culture and language is under a great strain. Even the migrant writers trying to salvage their culture and traditions find the State doors closed to them. So do their social service organizations. And topping it all is the fact of exile.

For all these problems stem from that one single factor. None of them would have arisen if there had been no migration, or if the migrants could return to their homes and live a normal lives there. But that would not come about without the return of a normaley in the valley. May be the new approach the Government is evolving would turn the terrorists from their violent path. But that is yet to be. And, then there is the determinate factor of foreign mercenaries spread like a pestilence all over the State. They would love to have sitting ducks for their target practice and terror tactics. Would the migrants after a thirteen-year travail return to be easy targets for these ubiquitous marauders? Should the Government think of turning them into ones? Safety and security is basic to the return of the migrants. If that were assured, the migrants would not wait for the nod of the Government or even that of their leaders. They’d return in hordes as they tried to in mid-nineties but were shooed back with bullets. It would not do to argue ‘what of the other Kashmiris’ there is a difference and all are aware of it. Accordingly the PDP leader did not advance the argument as had been done in the past.

She also concentrated on the immediate problems. After the immediate problems of mundane living is the lack, rather the denial, of employment to the migrants over the past decade and more. Except the State cadre posts, all the employments have been roundly denied to the migrants. There were one or two recruitment drives by the police, but the bulk of the one and a quarter lakh appointments made by the last Government left the migrants high and dry. As if it were a ‘rule’. Even the posts that fell vacant on retirement of the migrant-employees were not filled from amongst the migrant youth. Farooq Abdullah’s big promise by to give them their ‘share’ only subjected them to the indignity of queuing for long days before the secretariat gates filling in forms, without even a token appointment made. So utter has been that disappointment and indignity that migrants are reluctant to believe any promises, any words. That Mehbooba was heard making promises again, shows that she has renewed a trust. Would she be as good as her word? At the moment, at least, there seems to be no ground to disbelieve her words or sincerity.

The flawed thinking continues

By S.V. Vaidyanathan

The RBI’s mid-term credit policy statement for 2002-03 confirms two relatively less-discussed tendencies in the Indian economy. First, easy liquidity and lower nominal interest rates relative to the levels recorded through much of the early and mid-1990s are proving inadequate to reverse the slow rate of non-agricultural growth in the system.

In the RBI’s own words: "During 2002-03 so far, financial markets in India have been generally stable. Liquidity has been adequate, and the interest rate environment favourable to promote investments."

What it refuses to recognise is that growth has been disappointing, despite these facilitating trends. Second, there has been an embarrassingly large accumulation of foreign exchange reserves in the system, from $45.2 billion as on October 26, 2002, an increase of $18.8 billion. Rather than seeking to understand this peculiar accumulation of reserves, the statement seeks to defend the development as an indication of prudent external sector management.

Confronted by these developments, the RBI has chosen either to ignore them or justify them with seeking to explain them. For example, it is widely known that with inflation being subbued for some time now, there has been a shift in the focus of the central bank’s attention from inflation control to growth promotion. What the evidence on growth suggests is that the central bank’s strategy of using a regime of easy liquidity and lower nominal interest rates to trigger growth has failed to deliver results.

The RBI, however, appears to be reluctant to accept this evidence that has been corroborated by recent trends in the index of industrial production (IIP). While admitting that overall GDP growth for 2002-03 is likely to be in the range of 5-5.5 per cent as against the earlier projection of 6-6.5 per cent, the credit policy statement attributes this solely to the shortfall in agricultural production due to the poor monsoon, and believes that this has occurred despite a recovery in industrial production during the first half of this financial year.

It is indeed true that the IIP for the April-August period points to a rate of growth of 4.9 per cent this year as compared with 2.4 per cent during the corresponding period of the previous year. But even this rate is extremely poor when compared to the high rate achieved during the post-reform boom of the mid-1990s or the growth rates recorded during the 1980s.

One consequence of this persistence of slow growth is the fact that despite easy liquidity, credit offtake from by the non-agricultural sector has been disappointing. As the statement records, excluding the impact of mergers, scheduled commercial banks’ credit increased by 6.6 per cent (Rs. 38,800 crore) between April 1 and October 4, 2002, against 6.8 per cent (Rs. 34,700 crore) in the previous corresponding period.

The other consequence of the slow growth has been the fact that non-oil imports, especially non-oil, non-bulk imports, have been subdued. This combined with the fact that the higher returns offered by the domestic financial market resulted in substantial international investor interest and led to large capital flows, led to a build-up of reserves, since foreign exchange inflows were being inadequately absorbed to finance imports. In brief, to prevent an appreciation of the rupee, the RBI was forced to buy into the excess supply of dollars, leading to the $18 billion accumulation over the year ending October.

Thus, the principal problem that confronts the Indian economy is that of slow growth, which rules despite the large stocks of food in the system, the huge reserves of foreign exchange and the massive excess capacity in much of the industrial sector. As the RBI itself makes clear, inflation is not a problem at all.

Annual inflation, as measured by variation in the wholesale price index (WPI) (base: 1993-94=100) was on an average basis ruling at 2.3 as on October 12, 2002, against 6.3 per cent in the previous year. Measured by variations in the consumer price index (CPI) for industrial workers on a point-to-point basis, it was 3.9 per cent in August 2002 against 5.2 per cent a year ago. This domination of slow growth over inflation and the evidence that growth was not responding to lower nominal rates clearly requires the Government to rethink its proposition that monetary rather fiscal policy initiatives need to be emphassised. But so long as the current thinking on "financial reform" persists this is unlikely to occur.

Not surprisingly, the midterm review promises more of the same. By further reducing the bank rate and the repo rate, by enhancing liquidity in the system through cuts in the CRR, and by encouraging banks to reduce spreads over PLR, the RBI is still trying to use the twin levers of lower interest rates and easy liquidity to impart some dynamism to the system. This failure to change the way it looks at the big picture, has been combined with a large number of specific micro-level policies and adjustments that are unlikely to impact on the problem of slow growth confronting the economy today. INAV

Wealth from waste

By Radhakrishna Rao

In recent years, the problem of disposing of an ever increasing mountain of urban waste has assumed serious proportions. While energy and useful substances can be produced from urban garbage, it has become the cause of spreading diseases and upsetting the environmental balance.

Clearly and apparently, solid waste disposal poses an enormous problem in rapidly growing urban centres. Many a time, urban waste also contributes to the spread of water-borne diseases.

Against this backdrop, many urban centres in India are exploring ways and means of profitably exploiting an ever increasing quantity of garbage that lies unattended in corners of streets and outskirts of urban areas. For instance, the Bangalore Municipal Corporation has come out with a proposal to produce power through biomethanation and gasification of garbage generated in the city.

As such, Bangalore Municipal Corporation has approved the calling of global tenders for "Expression of Interest" in garbage-based power generation on Build-Operate - Transfer (BOT) basis. More than 1500 tonnes of garbage is generated daily in this fastest growing Asian City. Currently, much of this is disposed off in the dumping grounds.

"Biomethanation is a common process. Gasification of garbage is the latest trend. We will invite tenders for both versions of power generation", said Srinivasamurthy, Bangalore Municipal Corporation Commissioner.

Similarly, the fast growing coastal city Mangalore, where the problem of urban garbage has assumed menacing dimensions, is planning to launch an Asian Bank funded project for the safe disposal of urban waste. Bangalore produces over 150-metric tonnes of solid waste per day.

Significantly, in the Western Indian city of Pune, compost is produced from about 650-tonnes of garbage through the process of anaerobic fermentation. The process is both simple and cost effective.

The urban waste is sprayed with the so-called effective Microrganism (EM) solution which helps produce compost in about 45 days. The EM solution not only neutralises the bad odour of the garbage but also reduces the fly menace.

As it is, the EM technology was first developed in Japan way back in 1982 and is today becoming popular in various parts of the world.

Urban waste is also being turned into the so-called briquettes which come in various shapes and sizes. These briquettes generate energy when burnt. As it is, all kinds of biomass including crop wastes, saw dust, wood chip and rice husk can be briquetted. Briquettes which are easy to burn, are considered a clean and environmentally friendly fuel. Moreover, briquettes are cheaper and non-perishable.

Meanwhile, in a major breakthrough, a group of researchers at Washington State University and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory at Richland, Washington are exploring various ways of extracting valuable chemicals from animal dung and then turn them into nutrients and cosmetics. Further, they are exploring the use of carbohydrates in the dung to make chemicals used in many plastic products and cosmetics which are usually made from crude oil and its products.

On another front, Dr Albert Stiller, Professor of Chemical Engineering at West Virginia University, feels that chicken droppings too can be converted into high efficiency fuel. Through heat and intense pressure, chicken droppings can be blended with diesel to power an engine with no significant difference in the performance.

Research in many parts of the world has led to agricultural waste being increasingly used to produce useful materials. Today rice husk based Boards - superior and cheaper than the wood based boards - are being used in many parts of India.

As it is, the rice husk based board can be tailor-made to suit different needs. They are also ideally suited for high technology applications such as audio speaker decks and air-conditioner support systems. These boards are fire retardant, resistant to vagaries of nature besides being flexible. In the Philippines, rice husk based power system is being used to run the rice mills.

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