Daily Excelsior... Editorial

EDITORIAL

By Sain Dass Sumbria
The balance budget is the best amongst ''all forms of Budgets and that is often absent in the present age. It is general phenomenon all over the world particularly in ''under developed or developing countries'' that deficit financing .....more

Sustainable Dependence

By Bharat Jhunjhunwala
Ten years after Rio the world is still confronted with the challenges of endemic poverty, unsustainable lifestyles and environmental degradation," says Nitin Desai, United Nations Under Secretary General and Chairman of ....more

The troubled Himalayan Kingdom

By Atul Cowshish
The rise of Maoist rebellion in the Royal Kingdom of Nepal has brought another danger to India's Himalayan borders never very secure after the war with .........more

EDITORIAL

Stay put or get out!

The roads in the Jammu city are much wider today that what they were ten years ago. Today, the city is inter-linked by two bridges, half a dozen bye-passes and many more sub-roads, short cuts, lanes and side-lanes. Yet coursing through the city is a near nightmare today with most of the bye-passes and short cuts blocked with spiked barrages, sand-bags and the like. There is hardly a road that is not creeping with policemen. From Secretariat to hospital, to all the public places, there are wide gates but all are chained and barred. The entry at all places is restricted, through narrow doors, lined with metal detectors. Just a year ago one could go freely to the railway station enter and leave it from the shortest side-entrances. If one were to do that today one may be put behind the bars for surreptitious entry and suspicious behaviour. After the recent attack, none can visit the Raghunath Temple without a lurking fear. For the last several years the entrance to the house of the Lord had been guarded, complete with a metal detector and armed policemen on alert. It was their alacrity that prevented a blood bath there other day.

Whether one is on the road, in a temple or a hospital, the siege situation is unmistakable and acute. Imperceptibly life has got hedged in. The closures are creeping even closer. The situation in the Valley is like an openly barricaded place. So it is in the vast hills of Jammu division where only years ago, one could simply let oneself loose without even the fear of wild animals. Those beasts of the wild have been killed but more ferocious animals have taken their place, who neither have the gentility nor the aspect of those beasts. These beasts shoot at anything that moves, menace every aspect of life and threaten the normal concourse of life everywhere. Why? Just because a bunch of people have been pushing the sinister agenda of a neighbour who is sworn to causeless, reasonless, khuda - vastey - ki enmity with this State, nation and people! Just what right do they have to make the life of a crore of people plain hell? What right does this bunch have to throw the life of all sections of people, in all places, into an outright chaos? By pressing for imaginary rights and forbidden causes they are robbing everybody else of their legitimate right to a peaceful living.

At the very last count they have thrown three lakh people out of their homes in Kashmir. Another two lakhs are living in makeshift tents for the last six months to several years. For no fault, without any cause save the need for this group of people to make easy money, plead alien causes, promote foreign interests! Even if their sons and wards, persons and families had not been prospering with the largesse of Indian nation, had not been cornering trainings and appointments here, they should be questioned for this high treason against the people and the State. Even if they were 'sincere' in their 'cause' they should not be permitted in their belligerency because it is jeopardizing the life of millions of other citizens. But they derive all the benefits and yet betray this people, State and nation. Most of all, they betray the life of the citizenry here. Nobody should be allowed that monopoly to wreck the life of others. Farooq is right is serving them the ultimatum to either stay in India and be Indian citizens or else pack their bags for the lands where their loyalties lie. Nobody who is traitorous to the cause of the nation has a right to live in this nation, amid its people menacing his or her life through and through.

Hindus, Muslims and POTA!

Every body from Vajpayee to Bush has stated that Islam should not be equated with terrorism. Yet it is a fact of life that most, the majority, the overwhelming majority of the terrorists menacing the world including India happen to be Muslims. Whether it is the attack on WTC, the earlier attacks on Egypt or elsewhere, or the raging terrorism in this State the perpetrators are invariably Muslims. Even the terrorists threatening Pakistan are Muslims! The international coalition against terrorism has been practically fighting Muslim-terrorists, alone. Yet none of that should be taken to mean that Muslims and terrorists are synonyms. There are Muslims fighting them, Muslims in the ranks of world coalition, though Pakistan is not a very bright example of those forces. In the circumstances it is inevitable that most of the detainees under the prevention of terrorism act should be Muslims. As the world leaders and leaders of this nation have been stressing time and again that circumstance should not be taken to mean that it is something against the Muslims.

It only happens that most of the detainees are Muslims and that is that. When a man becomes a terrorist he ceases to be of any faith. He ceases to be human at all. He gives up the privilege and advantage of being a civilized being, a respecter of life and becomes an animal. That animal deserves neither consideration nor compassion. He should not be designated as belonging to this creed or that. But that is exactly what is happening. The political interests, bigoted agendas and mistaken media have increasing begun to point to the persons detained under the anti-terrorism laws by their earlier faiths and callings. Politicians who would not stop at anything to make a political kill have found this mode useful; it helps them pose as saviors of this sect or that community. But unfortunately the media too is falling in the trap. Reportages are becoming explicit in their description of religious denominations of the arrested terrorists. It gives the wrong impression of imaginary persecution and goes to buttress the ill founded claims of the same terrorists. Terrorists are terrorists, to be met with the deserts they deserve, irrespective of who, what and wherefrom they are.

Union Budget and Common man

By Sain Dass Sumbria

The balance budget is the best amongst ''all forms of Budgets and that is often absent in the present age. It is general phenomenon all over the world particularly in ''under developed or developing countries'' that deficit financing is preferred, India is no exception to this rule. To overcome the mounting pressure on economy because of huge deficits our Government have been resorting to levy taxes (both direct and indirect) on domestic front, levy additional excise duty on consumers goods manufactured for sale within the country, reduce excise duty and custom duty on imports and exports, print extra currency and many similar unpopulous steps that resulted in unprecendented hike in the cost of essential consumer goods and unbridled inflation in market. This also generated huge black money every year, finally in Economic crises to unmanageable extent. This strategy, however underwent complete change with market shift in its 'Economic policies' and switch over to the 'Policy of Liberalisation free market or globalisation'' i.e the fast paced growth of trade and cross border investment by the Central Government jumping the bandwagon of World Trade Organisation (WTO) in 1991. The deficit in the Budget by the Central/State Government are now generally covered by the external debts i.e loans from IMF-WB etc. and foreign direct investments instead earlier met by market borrowing, Financial Institutions, contribution from Public Sector Undertakings and Government owned Corporations. The adverse impact of Policy of globalisation is now quite evident at all levels. The middle class and poor down trodden sections of society are the worst sufferers due to this 'Policy'. The lifting of restrictions on 1429 items of consumer goods wef April Ist 2001 has further deepend the Economic crises because of adverse impact on the 'Home Industry' particularly the small Scale Sector. The farmers community and peasantry is also equal sufferers because of the present economic policies, that are generally persumed under the diktats of International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Bank (WB) and World Trade Organisation (WTO).

The budget that generally connotes the 'Annual Statement' of receipts and payments is always regarded an open reflection of the 'Economic Policies' of the State. The Budget for 2002-03 indicated the Govt of India's soft approach towards Multinational Companies. Foreign Investments, Non-resident Indians, big Business Houses etc and its firm resolve to the carry forward the process of economic reforms. The reduction in custom duty on imports (loosing Rs 2200 crores annual revenue) the option to the foreign banks to either operate as branches of their parent banks or to set up subsidiaries in India about full convertility of deposit schemes for non-Resident Indians (NRIs) or capital account liberalisation permission to 'Indian Companies' making overseas investments in joint ventures abroad, without prior approval upto 50 percent of their net worth and investments by the Indian Companies abroad upto one hundred US Dollar on annual basis through automatic routes etc are instances that can be quoted in this regards.

The budget proposals for 2002-03 presented by the Union Finance Minister on Feb 28th in the Parliament depicted fiscal deficit of Rs 135524 crores, 5.3 percent of Gross National Product (GDP). In the current years budget the deficit of Rs 116314 crores initially projected has now been revised to Rs 131721 crores, stated to be 5.7 percent of GDP. This kind of trend in fiscal deficit is continuing in the 'Union Budget' from last several years.

The reasons for the abnormal rise in fiscal deficit may be because of (a) shortfall in revenue collection against the collection target fixed, steep hike in non plan expenditure especially on unproductive scheme, cost escalations of development schemes and similar other factors. The union Finance Minister, has also acknowledged the shortfall of Rs 20683 crores in tax revenue Rs 7000 crores in disinvestments and an upward trend of Rs 4054 crores in Plan Expenditure. The revised estimates for 2001-02 and budget estimates for 2002-03 is not expected to behave in different manner. The actual deficit for these two years that will be available after the closure of the fiscal period shall be much higher as has been experienced in the past years.

The Union Finance Minister has proposed additional resource Mobilization (ARM) to the order of Rs 10,500/- crore.

This is in addition to the likely income from abnormal hike in postal rates, rate of PDS Sugar LPG and K. Oil etc. The actual deficit is therefore even much higher than that of indicated above.

The proposed labour law reforms, that permits industrial units employing one thousand workers (as against the existing limit of the hundred) to retrench staff without getting government nods or assent and shut down companies, declaring 42,200 posts surplus and move the surplus staff to ''surplus pool'' and ask them to avail option of voluntary retirement scheme (VRS) within three months or loose compensation; withdrawal of subsidies on LPG K Oil (that cost consumers Rs 20/- on LPG Slender and Rs 1.50 per litre K Oil respectively dearer) and fertilizers etc, hike in rail fare of second class passengers and freight charges, lowering down of interest rates on Provident Fund and Small Savings by 1/2 percent (the only source of income of senior citizens etc) levy of surcharge of 5% on (Income Tax for National Security; withdrawal of concessions under Section 88 of Income Tax Act relating to rebate (10% instead of 20% above Rs 1,50,000 to 5,00,000 and omitting altogether above 5,00,000) levy of service tax on ten new items and pension reforms introducing contributory Pension Scheme w.e.f (1.6.2002) are the 'retrograde' measures that have been included in the current budget proposals. All these measures are anti-farmers/peasents, anti-working class and anti-people too and cannot in any way whatsoever, be appreciated.

''Fixed Income Group'' particularly service Class shall be affected by the proposed measure. The Salaried Class is always at ''receiving end'' having to pay taxes at source. The existing income tax slabs not only remained unchanged, but a surcharge of five percent on I.T for national security besides reduction in rebate on saving on annual income of Rs 1,50,000 from 20% to 10% and withdrawal of the concession above Rs 5,00,000 has also been additionally imposed on income above rupees 60,000 per annum adding to the miseries of the tax payers. The cut in subsidies, phased dismentaling of Administrative Price Mechanism (APM) on petroleum and petroleum products, reduced return from contractual savings fewer government jobs and prospects of voluntary retirement jobs and prospects of Voluntary Retirements Scheme (VRS) and retrenchment as proposed in the budget leave the common man sulking turning his apprehensions about being the 'Centre Piece'' of the budget into a night marsh reality. It is a sob (not sops) story all the way for the middle classes as also the rural poor.

Sustainable Dependence

By Bharat Jhunjhunwala

Ten years after Rio the world is still confronted with the challenges of endemic poverty, unsustainable lifestyles and environmental degradation," says Nitin Desai, United Nations Under Secretary General and Chairman of the World Summit on Sustainable Development scheduled to be held at Johannesburg later this year. If Desai has his way, it will be the same after hundred years for wise men like himself have converted the concept of sustainable development into that of sustainable dependence.

Desai recognizes that the "unsustainable patterns of production and consumption" in the developed countries are a major obstacle to sustainable development. The straightforward solution to this problem is to increase the price of natural resources. Higher prices would lead to lower consumption. This could be done by the developing countries collectively imposing an ‘export tax’ on all resource transfers to industrial countries and equitably distributing the proceeds for building infrastructure etc.

But Desai does not like such a solution. He says that the industrial countries should adopt such policies which raise consumer awareness, provide incentives to industry to adopt cleaner production processes, and encourage publicly-funded research for sustainable production. The developing countries should continue to export their resources at lowest prices to the industrial countries who should continue to consume them but do so ‘sustainable’. The transfer of resources from developed to industrial countries, their dependence on these markets and the ensuing ‘endemic poverty’ should remain intact. If Desai really wanted the developing countries to remove poverty, he should have said: "Reduce consumption in industrial countries by imposing a sustainable consumption tax on all imports of natural resources."

Desai recognizes the problem of least developed countries. They are weighed down by debt, and lack the capacity to invest in industries and knowledge-based products. The solution to this problem is to build a larger coalition of all developing countries to demand higher prices—if necessary, through formation of cartels— for their products from the industrial countries. Then redistribute the booty among them on the basis of some equitable formula. We have seen at Doha and other international fora that the industrial countries offer special concessions to least developed countries and cause a split within the developing countries. The problem is similar to the divide created by managements between say Class 3 and Class 4 employees. An effective leaders manages to keep the flock together.

But Desai does not like such a solution. He says that there should be special programmes of capacity building and preferential market access to assist the least developed countries. This is like building special programmes for Class 4 personnel and, in the process, breaking the unity of the workers in negotiations. In reality, the fate of the least developed countries is tied up with the developing countries. Both have to break their dependence on the industrial countries. Together alone can they get a better deal from the industrial countries. A revised formulation should read as follows: "Increase technical cooperation among the developing- and least developed countries, to negotiate effectively as a block for improving market access and forming cartels of their products to obtain high prices from industrial countries."

Desai recognizes that multinational companies do not discharge their social, environmental and economic responsibilities; that private foreign investment does not often come in infrastructure and other priority areas; and does not support developing countries in their economic goals. The simple and effective solution to this problem is to create awareness of the developing countries that, as a block, they are not receiving any net foreign investment from industrial countries at all. In its Global Development Finance report, the World Bank has estimated that in 2000, the flow from industrial- to developing countries was 299 billion dollars, but the flow in the reverse direction was 307 billion dollars. The industrial countries are operating only as bankers who collect money from one developing country to invest in another. In the process, however, they extract many concessions for their multinationals. The developing countries should focus on preventing the outflow of their own wealth to the industrial countries. They should improve the investment climate for their own businessmen. This will eliminate the middleman role of the industrial countries and save billions for them.

But Desai does not like such a solution. He says that the developing countries should "create a domestic environment conducive to attracting foreign capital, by providing a stable investment climate, secure property rights and contract enforcement." Their dependence on the middleman-role of industrial countries should remain intact. A revised formulation should read as follows: "Encourage developing countries to provide a stable investment climate to domestic capital and build their capacities to negotiate effectively and impose proper conditionalities of technology transfer, profit repatriation and environment protection on multinationals. Encourage developing countries to build an information bank of information on defaulting multinationals."

Desai recognizes that patent-led monopolies on clean technologies are a major impediment to sustainable development. These patent holders, more often industrial country multinationals, demand high prices for their technologies which the developing countries are unable to pay for. The straightforward solution to this problem is to dismantle the patent regime itself. The world has a choice to make. The patents regime leads to the development of new technologies while depriving developing countries of the benefits of those already available. A patent-free regime would hamper the development of new technologies but make available clean technologies to developing countries. The latter would lead to sustainable development now. There is a tradeoff between sustainable development and more development. The dismantling of patents regime would put the development of new technologies on hold but create more sustainable development immediately.

But Desai does not like such a solution. He says that developing countries be assisted to "implement patent laws and regulations." New technological developments are at a premium and sustainable development is at a discount. A revised formulation should read as follows: "The urgent problem facing the world is of making available clean technologies to developing countries at affordable prices. The patents regime is an impediment in the process. Efforts must be made to dismantle the patents regime to make available clean technologies to the developing countries. The development of new technologies can wait."

Such perverted approach runs through every grain of Desai’s thinking. On the free trade regime, Desai fails to recognize that the gains from free trade to developing countries have proven to be very small. The need is to build cartels like OPEC to improve the terms of trade of developing countries. On crippling debt of developing countries, Desai wants ‘relief’. And he suggest an increase in aid. This approach is based on the assumption that the present wealth of industrial countries is permanent. The solution, as mentioned above, is to improve their incomes by increase in prices of the commodities produced by them. On rural development, Desai wants more "financial and technological support for rural infrastructure, enterprise development and access to credit for the rural poor." It is not recognized that the share of agriculture in income declines with development which, in the present period, comes from knowledge-based services. The correct route for developing countries is to develop their labour-intensive services sector—education, health care, music and entertainment, software, etc. Desai, therefore, is truly leading the World Summit on Sustainable Dependence.

The troubled Himalayan Kingdom

By Atul Cowshish

The rise of Maoist rebellion in the Royal Kingdom of Nepal has brought another danger to India's Himalayan borders never very secure after the war with China in 1962. If frequent large-scale killings of both civilians and security forces by the rebels are any indication, the situation in Nepal has not changed much even after the almost unprecedented step of sending the Royal Nepalese Army to fight the rebels.

Insurgency by the Maoists has also not shown any signs of weakening since the declaration of the State of Emergency in the Kingdom in November last year. Home Minister of Nepal, Devendra Raj Khandel, had said that after the horrible massacre of Mangalsen, in which 154 people were killed, the Maoist rebellion would be "crushed". But there is no sign of it.

The assurances of help and expressions of sympathy offered to the Nepalese Prime Minister, Sher Bahadur Deuba, during his recent visit to India are also unlikely to bring much change in the ground situation. In fact, from the Indian point of view things may become worse.

Given the general paranoia among a cross-section of Nepalese politicians about "big brother" India, any help from New Delhi may be suspect. Many Nepalese refuse to believe that Indian help can ever be altruistic. There are pockets of Chinese and Pakistani influence in Nepal which will do their best to constantly raise doubts over Indian gestures.

Be that as it may, the fact is that at the root of the Maoist rebellion in Nepal is the problem created by years of neglect of vast but remote areas of the country. While many Nepalese earned a name in the world by climbing some of the loftiest mountains, trekking through most difficult terrain, overcoming challenges from the ravages of nature, and displaying dare devilry, the administration from the Kathmandu valley could never trudge to the interior of the kingdom which became synonymous with extreme poverty and neglect.

Such conditions are tailor - made for those who preach "rebellion" coated with an aura of romanticism about "people's power". The Maoists have already established a "parallel" Government in these areas. The worry today is that their area of influence has been spreading at a somewhat alarming rate.

The ushering in of democracy apparently made little or no impact on the distant areas of Nepal. Busy in-fighting and indulging in the game of one-upmanship, the antics of political parties have only helped Maoists swell their ranks. Insurgency is not a law and order problem. It is as much a political problem. And it is a fall-out of wrong or failed economic policies as well.

The Army Chief, General Prajjawal Sumsher Jang Bahadur Rana, has questioned his country's politicians for blaming the Army for the present troubles when, in his opinion, the country has not seen good governance for at least 12 years. The chief of a disciplined Army is normally not given to expressing any opinion about politicians - except perhaps in Pakistan. When he does, the provocation can be assumed to be overwhelming.

Though it will cause no surprise in India, the present ruling party in Nepal is deeply divided with Giriraj Prasad Koirala, the predecessor of the present Prime Minister, almost openly working to bring down Deuba. With a total of 113 members, the Nepalese Congress has only a thin majority in the 205-member lower house of the country.

During the February session of Nepalese legislature, called to ratify the declaration of emergency, many members of the ruling party had joined the Opposition in demanding Deuba's scalp. Chaotic scenes were witnessed on the floor of Parliament before the mandatory two-third vote ratified the emergency for another three months.

The reasons for opposing the imposition of emergency can be understood very well in India which was placed under the same provision between 1974 and 1976. But unlike India, democracy in Nepal is sill in a nebulous State. People there feel that a prolonged spell of emergency would spell the end of their yearning for democracy. The human rights groups fuel fears by stressing the sufferings of the "innocent civilians."

It is also to be remembered that the first democratically elected Government in Nepal, headed by the late B P Koirala, was dismissed in the 1960s under the emergency provisions and the country was placed under an autocratic rule by the King. But compared to those days, the King appears in a different today. The King is widely seen as the symbol of country's unity and integrity.

However, the Maoist insurgents would like to see an end to the centuries old monarchy. Their hopes probably soared briefly after the June 1 massacre of most of the royalty and the subsequent reservations about the eventual successor, the present King, Gyanendra. The rebels also want a constituent assembly set up to guide the future course of Government in the land-locked country.

With the communist parties in Nepal - there are almost 10 of them - willing to accept the King as the ruler, it is not clear how much popular support exists for the demand to abolish the monarchy. It is also a myster why the rebels, who are said to have modelled themselves after the Peruvian Shining Path, have adopted the course of violence and insurgency when the world seems to be turning against this course.

One explanation is that the strategists amongst them, who include the chief of the Maoists, Pushpakamal Dahal alias Prachand, Baburam Bhattarai, ex-JNU student, Ram Bahadur Thapa alias Badal and Mohan Vaidya alias Kiran, feel that the "people's war" cannot be won without the gun. It can be assumed (in fact Nepalese authorities complain so) that the Nepalese rebels must be banking on help and cooperation from several sources from the various Naxal-type outfits in India, especially in Bihar, which shares its northern border with Nepal, and other eastern parts of India.

The terrain in which the Indian counterparts of the Nepalese Maoists operate is also difficult and inaccessible, and offers easy hideouts. The Indian Government, with resources better than Nepal's, has also not been able to quell the insurgency in these parts. And it is no secret that these rebels in Indian territory receive patronage from foreign sources.

It may not be speculative to look for the mischief-making ISI of Pakistan with its strong-anti-India base in Nepal extending its help to the Nepalese rebels. Some might disagree because one of the aims of the Nepalese Maoists is stated to be the creation of a South Asia confederation comprising India, Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Pakistan is a glaring omission here. But this cannot be taken as indiction of the Nepalese rebels' distrust of Pakistan.

It may have more to do with the fact that Pakistan is untouched by the kind of rebels movements hat have sprouted in the rest of South Asia countries. In countries like India and Nepal, insurgent movements are born to address socio-economic issues and the nurtured by forces inimical to the Governments in Delhi and Kathmandu. In Pakistan "rebels" - if they can be so-called - relate to only waging a jehad, particularly against India and they are nurtured by the Government in Islamabad itself.

The ISI and the Nepalese rebels' interest coincide as both of them see India as an "enemy". A rumour is often spread in Nepal that India is always scheming to annex Nepal. The rumour mills, have also spread the story that the rebels and the King are together so as to keep the democratic forces away from power?

Some of our analysts like to speculate on a possible Chinese role in Nepal's troubles. But any covert Chinese help has to be ruled out in the context of long spell of excellent Sino-Nepalese relations based on mutual trust.

But the suspicion on ISI help cannot be dismissed out of hand. For a long time, the Nepalese have been dismissing India's concern over the rising activities of the ISI in their country. But in recent days the Nepalese have begun to realise the harm that the Pakistani saboteurs did to their country, and their economy.

India's security interests demand a successful end to the Maoist rebellion in Nepal. The US pledged its support to Nepal's fight against "terrorism" when US Secretary of State Colin Powell was in Kathumandu last winter. India and, indeed, the whole world will be ready to assist Nepal in whatever manner it wants in fighting the rebels. But the issue remains how will these offers be used?

It looks unthinkable at the moment that Nepal - unlike Pakistan - will allow foreign forces to operate from its territory to flush out the rebels. The only way out is obviously to show some urgency to addressing the problems of the remote rebel-held areas of Nepal for which all kinds of material help should be pouring in from all corners of the world.

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