EDITORIAL
Overdue
action
Pakistan has been
actively, openly, maliciously sponsoring terrorism in
Kashmir for the last one and half decades. The details of
Pakistani plans and in Kashmir, their logistic and
material projections, all have been described in good
detail over these years. There is hardly any aspect of
the insurgency in which Pakistan has not been directly
involved. And almost every facet of that involvement has
been fully, thoroughly exposed. Over the past few years,
details of that involvement and implementation of the
Pakistani plans have been amply aired by the
International.....more
Defense
is back
It was a situation of high
abnormality that while a hard, real war was going on in
its close neighborhood the great Indian State went
without a defense minister. The country may not has
declared a State of emergency, but the situation is the
subcontinent is a very emergent one. A most modern war is
being fought in the very close vicinity. The country
across the border is actually in high turmoil. The
leadership and people there are passing through a very
unpredictable phase; probably, the most tricky phase
in.....more
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Let
Pakistan see reason
By P L Khushu
The world scenario is presently chocked and tied with
only one cry, which is substantially linked up with
terrorism and its ultimate end. The outbursting of .....more
The
simmering casteist
cauldron
By Sondip Bhattacharya
The ruling BJP
government in Uttar Pradesh is engagad in evolving a new
setup of caste permutation and combination because the
forthcoming State .......more
US
operations in
Afghanistan : Aims and
objective
By Maj Gen V K Madhok (retired)
As US Operations in Afghanistan progress further
questions which arise are. ....more
Military
response in Afghanistan
By Gurmeet Kanwal
George W. Bush has declared war on terrorism and warned
his countrymen, allies and friends that it will be a long
drawn ,.......more
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EDITORIAL
Overdue action
Pakistan has been
actively, openly, maliciously sponsoring terrorism in
Kashmir for the last one and half decades. The details of
Pakistani plans and in Kashmir, their logistic and
material projections, all have been described in good
detail over these years. There is hardly any aspect of
the insurgency in which Pakistan has not been directly
involved. And almost every facet of that involvement has
been fully, thoroughly exposed. Over the past few years,
details of that involvement and implementation of the
Pakistani plans have been amply aired by the
International agencies, including American and British
intelligence sources. The greatest proof still, if more
were needed, was the headship of the Pakistani State by
Musharraf. Musharraf came to fore on the basis of his
staunch anti-Indian activities and proclivities. He took
over the reigns of power because Nawaz Sharif had been
thoroughly discredited in the Kargil fiasco. Not for
venturing out there, mind. The venturing out into the
Indian territory was what he gained accolades for. It was
the aftermath, the decisive defeat that India dealt him
that ate up all his credit and credibility.
And the general who had
lead him up the garden path took over. Though India and
other nations cried foul at the top of their voices over
this usurpation of the Pak peoples' prerogative, to the
Pakistani people it appeared as the most 'natural thing'
to happen. As if it was the logical end to the whole
exercise! And, all that was for Kashmir. The only excuse
of Musharraf was and is Kashmir. He even tried to tell
his people that he had aligned with America against the
Taliban to 'get Kashmir'. Would another proof of that
nations' complicity in Kashmir be needed? Would another
shred of evidence be called for ? It is high
interference. Armed interference. Declarations of war
against a peaceful neighbor with out reason, without
cause, without any logic, save the clear intent to
dismember that neighboring country. Musharraf spoke out
even that truth very clearly at Agra. Yet the Indian
Government has lain back and tried to set in political
cunning and prevarication where an unambiguous action was
called for. There was no legal provision for Kashmir
being given out to Pakistan as a result of the Indian
Independence Act of 1947. It was the kings' prerogative.
The Muslim majority character of the State was no
criteria.
Though the political
leaders of the State had no legal say in the affair,
India had the moral sanction, of the most popular leader,
specifically of Kashmir, not only agreeing to the
accession but actually begging the Indian Government to
accept the accession offered by the ruler of the State.
Yet India acted coy and never spoke of the communal
character of the Pakistani interest in Kashmir. It is
still acting coy hoping not to be reminded of the
religious motivation and interest of the sundry
terrorists operating in Kashmir. Nor has the clearly
sectarian character and appeal of the so-called Hurriyat
been pointed out. The result has been treating the
communal and secular forces in the Valley as equally
legitimate voices. Failure to ban the terrorist outfits
in the Valley is only one aspect of the high Indian
confusion in Kashmir; Indian Government actually hopes to
come to a settlement with the communalists. And the
actions of the Indian State both against the highly
communal terrorists and the avowedly communal agenda of
Pakistan have both has been reluctant. That is how
Pakistan came to treat India as a gaming ground for its
communal interests. That is what the secular forces in
Kashmir have been demanding; what the national conference
and Farooq Abdullah have been calling for: that neither
the communalist Pakistan nor its supporters be given any
legitimacy, nor allowed any say here. A secular country
has the right to reject communalism, and a right to root
it out. A right to rebuff foreign interferers in its
affairs and rule, too. The hard realization in Akhnoor
sector the other day is a fitting reply but not enough to
say that realizaiton has sunken in the minds of mandarins
of the Home ministry. The nation hopes it does not remain
a singular event.
Defense is back
It was a situation of high
abnormality that while a hard, real war was going on in
its close neighborhood the great Indian State went
without a defense minister. The country may not has
declared a State of emergency, but the situation is the
subcontinent is a very emergent one. A most modern war is
being fought in the very close vicinity. The country
across the border is actually in high turmoil. The
leadership and people there are passing through a very
unpredictable phase; probably, the most tricky phase in
the short history of that country. The people are up in
arms, the army is very active, possibly very piqued too.
On the Afghan front they are all helpless with the mighty
American war machine raging. And Kashmir is the only card
everybody there would like to play. India the eternal
hate object of the Pak State and people is what could be
used as a diversionary tool by any threatened general or
satrap.
And yet India went without
a minister for the all important defense ministry. To
compound the matters the defense affairs had been
entrusted to the already overburdened foreign minister.
Now the situation has been remedied to some extent by the
appointment of a full-fledged defense minister. George
Fernandes has the added advantage of being well
acquainted with the defense matters, as he was the
minister there not so long ago. He was the one who
steered the limited war at Kargil to a good fruitition.
And as an acclaimed rights activist all his life. George
Fernandes has a stature all his own. Probably, all these
considerations mattered when Prime Minister was making
his choice to give defense a head. Else, it would have
been in the fitness of things to wait for the
Venkataswami Commission to come out with its findings in
de affaire la Tehelka.
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Let
Pakistan see reason
By P L
Khushu
The world
scenario is presently chocked and tied
with only one cry, which is substantially
linked up with terrorism and its ultimate
end. The outbursting of this cry came to
recognition only after recent brutal acts
of terrorism in New York. United States
of America is horribly shaken and rightly
so and is aspiring to catch the mentors
of such acts dead or alive. It is
certainly appreciating to see the super
power of the world so much concerned
about the global terrorism and certainly
deserves all types of moral support by
all the nations of the world. India in
this context has to be amongst the front
ranking nations, but while doing so, the
support has to be limited to the status
of moral sympathy and support only. Over
indulgence like that of Pakistan can be
counter productive and harmful in the
long run for the Indian nation and its
nationals. India has been facing the
brutal acts of cross border terrorism for
the last more than a decade and serious
concern in this regard have been shown
and aired by Indian nation right from the
first day of the start of terrorism in
all forums of International status.
Beyond just listening to the Indian woes,
nothing tangible or substantial was done
by any other super power to come to the
rescue of the Indian Polity, beyond
extending a civilised support to the
scorning part of the cross border terror
and its ism. Had these super powers
understood and appreciated the Indian
concern well in time, todays
situation of America would have never
arisen. Now that cross border terrorism
has taken the shape of global terrorism
and has become vivid and nacent because
of the New York attack, the think tank
probables of the Indian Governance has to
have a cautious approach towards the
same. Terror sponsored by an individual
or group of individuals, as also a single
country or nation should in no way be
commuted as a war or hate for the
populace of a particular faith or
religion, particularly for the Indian
nation where people of different
religious faiths live, the conceptual
part of terror should be got diluted and
annihilated by involving all the saner
sections and sects of the Indian
population. Indias concern about
the terrorism shall continue to be on the
log books as long as the same is active,
be it in J&K, North Eastern States or
Punjab. The terrorism in Punjab has
ultimately got buried some how in Punjab
itself. This has happened with the able
and determined civilised administrative
and political capabilities of Indian
Governance and not through a war hysteria
or cry as is being witnessed now
globally. India has to be a part of the
International community for deciphering
and uprootment process of the terrorism
but the approach has to be more of human
nature as against the total war cry which
has entangled the whole world right now.
Super powers or nations getting grouped
for absolute war may do so at their own
will, but it should certainly not engulf
Indian society or soil. India believes in
democratic means and ends and has thus to
continue the same as a special &
specific non-aligned nation. Aspecting
the war cry of super powers through
Indias corridor, will mean
something bad for this nation. While all
the sympathies should be with America
because of New York carnage and other
brutal acts on it, somebody, somewhere
shall have to remind and tell such powers
of their erstwhile role in regard to
terrorism. Now that it has engulfed these
powers also, let them face it within
their own parameters of course, with a
sympathetic pat from India.
War
against terrorism by some super powers
should be their own concern as obvious
inferences by such a cry against a class
or community or a sect will mean a bigger
trouble. India can hardly afford to be an
active partner of such a type of cry as
this nation believes in tolerance, mutual
respect, good governance of brotherhood
as also supreme regard for human rights,
which our Constitution guarantees in
un-equivocal terms.
India is
facing and countering cross border
terrorism for our suspects in this regard
are evidently identified and known. Our
neighbour viz, Pakistan has exposed
itself to a deep degree of bad taste and
grace and to our extreme astonishment the
present rulers of that country are
cobwebed within their own web of self
inscribed web of terror. It is a
situation of choosing between the devil
and a deep sea for such rulers now. India
has to tackle them with wisdom as no
further recognition for their such acts
is needed. Entire India and its nationals
know that our problem is from our
neighbour. Simultaneously if some good
amount of wisdom is left with the
terrorists operating in J&K state,
they should abandon the patronage of
Pakistan now atleast as it has left the
Talibanis and Afganis in
lurch. Similarly super powers should also
understand the double speak of Pakistan.
They can not be friends of any body as
per their latest approach. While as
Pakistan Government is now bent to
support international effort to curb
terrorism, what about its own acts of
promoting of terrorism in Jammu &
Kashmir. Even the present ruler of
Pakistan, General Parvez Musharraf is on
record to have said that if India does
not leave Kashmir, the Jihadis would do
an Afganistan on it and Pakistan can not
stop them as they are freedom fighters.
It is now looking like to put the cart
before the horse. The general has
deserted the same Afganistan and there
was rather no other alternative beyond
that. Similar wisdom shall prevail upon
such rulers in regard to Kashmir also. No
power in the world can sustain terrorism
now. It has to go and let it go happily
without further blood shed. The powers
which are trying to create an impression
that terrorism is an offshoot of jihad
are miserably mistaken in so far as
Indian polity is concerned. Recently,
Iran has dubbed ideological formulations
of the Taliban as a vulgarisation
of Islam. Indian is proud to
contain Islam in its lap for ages. Thus
the war cry across the sea trying to
invade Taliban or Afganistan should not
be concluded as Indian inclusion also.
Now that the recognition of global
terrorism is almost a certified entity,
the cross border terrorism of Pakistan in
J&K should die naturally.
Albeit the
human cry across the whole world the
abettors behind terrorism have managed to
inject another dose of terror and mass
killings while executing such an attack
recently in J&K Assembly campus. So
many innocent human lives have been wiped
away for no fault of theirs. Under such
circumstances it has to be declared now
finally that what bin Laden is to America
and others, Pakistan is a bigger bin
Laden to India and particularly to
Kashmir. If perforce India is forced to
engage itself with International
Community for fighting global terrorism,
and capture Bin La Din dead or alive, the
fore-most pre condition in this context
on Indias part should be to get
Pakistan isolated as a terrorist country
and ensure all types of resolute barriers
of sorts to be imposed upon it by the
International Community, particularly the
western powers. Pakistan seems to have
earned a cake by another proxy deceit by
getting Talibans marginalised and
disowning them for foreign consumption as
also domestic consumption. Since its
economy as also internal security is at
its lowest ebb presently, it has scored a
point by siding with USA and U.K.
unceremoniously and thus sold their pound
of flesh by getting economic support by
way of millions of dollars from Western
Countries. This speaks volumes about they
credentials of the present rulers of
Pakistan. Thus India has to continue to
go with its declared war against
terrorism alone. Dr. Farooqs
sentiments expressed by him recently and
his tearful emotional sobbings, along
with his other colleagues of the J&K
Assembly should be considered the extreme
parameters of the broken patience of the
people of Jammu & Kashmir..
Indians
apart, the people of J&K should not
be made to suffer now on a different
count. Kashmir is a war torn place and
what New York has seen now the people of
Jammu & Kashmir have been tasting it
ever since a decade. Terrorism has broken
its culture, economy, as also beauty.
What did the mentors across the border
get out of it. Probably nothing, other
than devastation of Kashmir. Let them
understand the language & see the
writing on the wall that now it is their
turn. Let them not devastate humanity.
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The
simmering casteist cauldron
By
Sondip Bhattacharya
The ruling
BJP government in Uttar Pradesh is
engagad in evolving a new setup of caste
permutation and combination because the
forthcoming State Assembly elections are
critical for the ruling coalition. The
outcome will have a direct impact on the
leadership of Prime Minister Atal Bihari
Vajpayee and the NDA Government at the
Centre. Mr. Vajpayee has himself conveyed
the message to the members of the Sangh
Parivar that the future of his NDA
Government is linked with the outcome of
UP Assembly elections. BJPs Chief
Minister Rajnath Singh has already put
forward a new scheme of
"reservations within
reservations" and "jobs within
jobs" for the Dalits and the
backward castes by slicising (from slice)
the quotas around Backward Castes, the
Extremely Most Backward Castes, and the
Muslim Backward Castes. By opening a
Pandoras box of "socially
backward versus other socially backward
castes", Mr. Singh has posed a
potent political challenge to the
caste-based Bahujan Samaj party of Mr.
Kanshi Ram, and the Samajwadi Party of
Mr. Mulayam Singh Yadav.
It
deserves to be stated that political
compromises made by the Congress in UP
have led to a situation where it is not
at all in the reckoning and now the
political triangle consists of the BJP,
BSP and Samajwadi Party. This is the
reason that the BJP is playing a
"caste card in politics"
because its two main political rivals
have strong caste-based social support
among the Jatavas or Chamars of the BSP,
and Yadavs of the Samajwadi party. None
of these three contenders for power in UP
are taking the Congress even as a
marginal factor in the forthcoming
elections. Mr. Rajnath Singh appointed a
Social Justice Committee under Mr. Hukam
Singh to look into the 27 per cent quota
of reservations of public positions for
the backward castes of Uttar Pradesh.
This
Social Justice Committee of the BJP State
Government has followed the path shown by
Mr. V. P. Singh, who played the caste
reservation game to protect his temporary
prime ministership in August, 1990.
Incidentally, Mr. V. P. Singh, the
"messiah" of the worst kind of
casteist politics in India, proclaimed
the acceptance of Mandal Commission
Report on reservations in public services
in the name of social justice for the
backward castes. It is ironical that the
worst kind of casteist politicians of UP
conceal their activity of vulgar
manipulative politics by taking recourse
to the ideology of social justice.
The
Rajnath Singh Governments new
policy of sub-quotas for reservations is
based on sub-division of 27 per cent
quota into five per cent for the Yadavs,
nine per cent for eight most backward
castes which also includes Lodhs, Kurmis
and the Jats; and the remaining 14 per
cent of reservations are for the 70 other
backward castes. Further, 22 Muslim
castes have been also given benefits of
reservations in the category of Extremely
Most Backward Castes. This new casteist
politics of the BJP has completely
rattled Mr. Mulayam Singh Yadav, Mr.
Kanshi Ram and other sub-caste leaders,
who feel threatened because "quotas
within quota" caste policy has
directly hit the caste support base of
the two leaders. Mr. Mulayam Singh Yadav
has jumped into the "new
debate" by observing that "we
want 11 to 15 per cent of State
Government jobs to be reserved for the
poor from the upper castes". Mr.
Kanshi Ram, while criticising the policy
of "reservation within
reservation" of the Manuwadi BJP,
has demanded reservation in the private
sector.
Another UP
leader Beni Prasad Verma wants
"reservation on the basis of caste
percentage of Uttar Pradesh
population" and Mr. Kanshi Ram too
wants caste-based census of the
States population for determining
the quota for reservations for each
caste. The national leadership of the
BJP, which is deeply involved in the
politics of elections to the UP Assembly,
desires that the Hukum Singh UP Social
Justice Committee should also find ways
and means for five per cent
"economically backward"
sections among the upper castes.
Why is the
caravan of caste and sub-caste based
reservations moving forward? Why has the
BJP jumped into the caste-based politics
of UP? What has been the impact of
caste-based politics on the governance of
the State? How has politics of caste
impacted civil society in UP? These
questions about the ongoing drama of
casteisation, communalisation,
criminalisation and complete
marginalisation of secular, progressive
forces in UP cannot be answered without
contextualisation of the social order in
the State.
A few
important feature of political and
socio-cultural profile of UP may be
mentioned to properly comprehend its
continuing downslide. UP was a very
important headquarters of the Congress,
socialists, communists, Muslim Leaguers
and Hindu Maha Sabha-ites, and all these
political tendencies were actively
involved in political competition during
the struggle for freedom. Every major
ideological group was found in an active
contest in UP and every major ideology
had its own active followers and leaders.
Every major ideology in the State thus
received its intellectual sustenance from
highly developed universities and
colleges.
The Uttar
Pradesh intelligentsia, along with the
literati, supported and supplemented
contending ideologies in the State. On
the eve of independence, UP launched its
journey with all the assets and
liabilities of this historical
inheritance. If on the one hand, UP could
boast of its ideological and
organisational capital, on the other,
Partition of India left the State as a
completely fractured society. UP needed a
healing touch because its leadership and
political formations had not only to
fight against the monster of communalism,
the Muslim minority too had to be assured
that it was absolutely safe in India.
Nehrus Congress, Acharya Narendra
Devs socialists and Z.A.
Ahmads communists were very active
in providing a socially progressive
political umbrella to all communities
against communal forces in the State.
The major
generalisation from this pre-independence
and post-independence social profile of
UP is that it started its democratic
journey with a good network of party
organisation, trade unions, kisan sabhas,
student unions and provincial, regional,
district, city, town and village level
organisational leadership. How was this
great asset of politics squandered away?
The Nehru Congress at the apex was
socially progressive, but Congress
leadership in UP was socially
conservative and practitioner of caste
and soft Hindutva. Congress social class
and caste alliance in UP consisted of the
"twice born castes" with the
hegemony of Brahmins, Thakurs, Rajputs,
Banias and Kayasthas in this order, and
for the winning of an election, the
Congress created a powerful social
constituency among Muslims and Scheduled
Castes.
The
political superstructure of UP reveals
the social essence of the Congresss
leadership. Govind Ballabh Pant, Dr
Sampurnanand, Chandra Bhanu Gupta,
Kamlapati Tripathi, H. N. Bahuguna,
Narain Dutt Tiwari and V. P. Singh
occupied the highest echelons of power in
the UP Congress, and the odd man out was
Chaudhary Charan Singh, who was looked
down upon by the high caste leaders as a
rough Jat peasant. Not only this. All the
major players in UP politics combined
their social conservatism with the
practice of soft Hindutva and caste-based
loyalties. How far the three major
political parties benefit from the
emerging casteist formula remains to be
seen. But what is certain that the State
has been torn asunder ; and one can only
expect violence during the election. INAV
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US
operations in Afghanistan : Aims and objective
By Maj Gen V K Madhok
(retired)
As US Operations
in Afghanistan progress further questions which
arise are. What is the overall concept of
American strategy? Is US interest confined to
removal of Terrorism, occupation of Afghanistan
and eliminating Osama bin Laden? Or its Chief
concern is its oil security in the Gulf? Also,
Pakistan's compulsions and has Islamabad made the
right choice and its future role? Has India been
marginalised? What is the post Taliban scenario?
Finally,what incidents can set in motion another
entirely new major change in the present
situation?
US has always
aimed at keeping the war away from its Homeland.
Accordingly, military and logistic bases were
established in South Korea, Japan,Diego Garcia,
Middle East and the like. Troops, Air and Naval
Fleets remain positioned at these bases at
various stages of readiness. Alliances have been
entered into support Allies with a view to
protect US interests. And the only threat
visualized to US Homeland was considered to be
from missiles fired by the so called Rogue states
to counter which NMD (National Missile Defence)
was being discussed. But the Sep 11,2001 four
terrorist attacks causing nearly 7000 casualties
have changed all that.These sent shock waves and
a clear signal that the Homeland was not safe.
That such terrorist attacks could endanger US
interests abroad such as the oil supplies from
the Gulf and therefore, as a first step,the need
to deal with Afghanistan.
Whether this is a
right conclusion that Afghanistan is the source
of all ter- rorism and Osama bin Laden is the
chief perpetrator are matters which cannot be
decided in a hurry. But Afghanistan was easy to
deal with considering its ill equipped Taliban
forces and a Northern Alliance already pitched in
battle with their counterparts. More important,
leaving Afghanistan alone would have emboldened
Iran and Iraq to threaten US oil supplies.
Besides,a state of no action would have had a
most demoralising affect within America.
But all this could
not be done without Pakistan's assistance and all
out co-o peration. Accordingly, a major shift
took place to woe and befriends Pakistan to win
it back as an Ally. For which massive economic
benefits, lifting of economic sanctions and
restrictions on supply of military hardware have
been removed. And more rewards will follow.
In Pakistan it was
a hard and certainly a bold decision by Gen
Musharraf to support the US in an anti US
environment in Pakistan. Also, to tell the
Talibans,who are supported by Fundamentalist and
Jehadi Groups that their days were numbered if
they failed to hand over bin Laden. Besides,
Pakistan is a strategic partner of China. Should
Musharraf succeed Pakistan will be benefitted
immensely so far as its economy and sources of
military hardware and technology are concerned.
Therefore, his intent to share intelligence,
allow the use of Pakistan's air space and even
airfields and perhaps much more, have been steps
in the right direction.
As regards US
overall concept: This was finalised after
Pakistan's approval. It centres around three
essentials: A sharp and swift military action
avoiding civil casualties, installation of a post
Taliban regime and reconstruction of Afghanistan
alongwith humanitarian aid. Accordingly, military
operations have aimed at destroying Taliban
training camps, command headquarters, supply and
ammunition depots, their Anti Aircraft batteries
and whatever helicopters and aircraft they had at
their airfields. This also includes support of
Northern Alliance with logistics and military
hardware from Tajik and Uzbekistan airfields and
camps. Further, US has positioned nearly one
thousand troops there and more will follow and
& if necessary, spearhead ground operations
should Northern Alliance fail to make progress.
Concurrently,
strategies are being discussed for the post
Taliban regime in which China too is greatly
interested. The most likely option appears to be
an interim arrangement headed by ex King Zahir
Shah with a broad representative Government
consisting of all ethnic groups. Pakistan has
clearly stated that it is against a Government
led by Northern Alliance consisting of Tajiks,
Uzbeks and Hazaras who constitute 15 per cent
each of total population while Pushtoons form
50-60 percent of the population. Besides,
Pakistan has always been anti Northern Alliance
which has been inclined towards India.
It is clear that
military operations wont last long, may be a
couple of days. Already, the Afghanistan air
space is clear which permits move of heliborne
troops and para dropping anywhere in Afghanistan.
Many senior Taliban commanders and troops are
already deserting. And those who refuse to join
the broad based alliance will flee to the
mountains in a hope of conducting guerrilla war
in the future. In addition, some aid has already
been dropped for civilian refugees and
reconstruction strategies are being discussed.
But all said and
done, the overall interest of US continues to be
its oil security. For the last ten years efforts
are being made to make use of alternate sources
of oil and gas from Turkmenistan and Kazygstan,
through pipelines laid in Afghanistan to
Pakistan's ports. All this could not be done due
to non co-operation by Talibans and an anti US
stance by Pakistan. But now this can be done
because Pakistan sees a window of opportunity in
all this.
The ultimate
scenario which could emerge is a friendly
Afghanistan, both to the US, Pakistan and even
Russia, permitting transportation of oil and gas,
with a strong military presence in the Gulf by
the US to keep away Iran and Iraq from doing any
mischief. And so far as dealing with global
terrorism, it cannot be done without a global
coalition and a frame work established by the
UNO. And that will take time.
But what happens
if Musharraf is eliminated by a military coup or
even assassinated. In which case, a Jamate Islami
led Government, supported by Talibans and
hardliners in the Army can come to power in
Islamabad. And this Government with a nuclear
button in its hand will refuse to cooperate with
the US making its position very difficult. Or a
germ attack takes place in the US.
Accordingly,
Musharraf has become a period commodity so far as
the US and even India are concerned. Thus US is
in a hurry to eliminate the Talibans and to get a
friendly concerned. Thus US is in a hurry to
something happens to Musharraf. So far us India
is concerned, it remains truly marginalised.Its
political leaders have remained just as
observers.
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Military
response in Afghanistan
By Gurmeet Kanwal
George W. Bush has
declared war on terrorism and warned his
countrymen, allies and friends that it will be a
long drawn affair. In fact, the operation has
been named "Enduring Freedom''. While the
real war will be against the vast global terror
network of Osama bin Ladens Al Qaeda and
its many associate terrorist organisations and
will undoubtedly require time, patience and
painstaking effort to succeed, the United States
(US) administration will feel compelled to show
some early results to assuage the wave of anger
and bitterness still sweeping across America. To
this end, the US and allied forces, military
juggernaut is rolling forward and the Taliban
militia in Afghanistan is to bear the brunt of
its massive firepowe r.
The initial US
military objectives will be two-fold. First, to
destroy the Talibans war waging potential
so that a more representative and moderate regime
can be eventually installed in Kabul, a
government that will assist the international
community in its fight against terrorism.
Secondly, to destroy bin Ladens known camps
and bring him to justice. The Talibans
combat aircraft (10 SU-22 fighter bombers, 5
MiG-21 fighters, about 40 transport aircraft and
10 cargo helicopters), 500 tanks, assorted
artillery pieces including rocket launchers and
air defence weapons and the airstrips at Kabul,
Kandahar and Bagram will be the primary targets
for stand off weapons like air-to-surface
missiles and even Tomahawk cruise missiles an the
first few days after air strikes are launched.
The shoulder fired Stinger surface-to-air
missiles (SAMs), approximately 80 of which are
still held by the Taliban, will impose
considerable caution on US pilots. These missiles
were given by the CIA to Pakistans isi
during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in
the 1980s and were passed on by the ISI to the
Taliban.
The secondary
target list will include previously identified
headquarters and communications centres, known
fuel dumps, arms and ammunition stores and
related military assets. Most of these will be
hit on subsequent days after the Talibans
air defence resources have been credibly
destroyed. For these strikes the US will employ
fighter ground-attack aircraft like the Warthog
that will not only come screaming in to launch
close range rocket attacks but also take pictures
of the devastation that they cause so that people
back home get to see that America is getting
even. While the US and its allies will take care
to avoid causing civilian casualties,
considerable collateral damage may be expected to
occur. The Afghans fleeing from their homes will
run into the countless landmines that have been
carelessly strewn over the countryside over two
decades of bitter fighting. Depending on the
ferocity of the air strikes, a humanitarian
disaster of huge proportions may be expected to
unfold.
The initial air
strikes will be multi-directional and will be
launched from several different types of weapons
platforms. The three aircraft carrier battle
groups (USS Enterprise, Theodore Roosevelt and
Carl Vinson), deployed in the Persian Gulf and
northern Arabian Sea, will employ F-18 Hornet
fighter ground attack aircraft (FGA) for ground
strikes and F-14 Tomcats for air defence escorts.
Early warning and control will be provided by E-
2C Hawkeye AWACS aircraft. Besides
nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, the battle
groups comprise cruisers, destroyers, frigates,
attack submarines and support ships. British
aircraft carrier HMS Illustrious and its sister
ships are also likely to pitch in for the strikes
with Sea Harrier jump jets. Most of these
aircraft will have to overfly Pakistani airspace,
as Iran is not willing to extend military
cooperation to the US and allied forces. Tomahawk
cruise missiles will again be used though not in
very large numbers. Each Tomahawk costs about $1
million and the stocks depleted during the 1999
strikes against Serbian forces are yet to be
fully replenished.
US B-52 bombers
from Diego Garcia, F-15 and F-16 fighter- bombers
and British Tornados from air bases in Saudi
Arabia, Oman, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar are
likely to be utilised for delivering heavier
payloads against larger targets such as air
strips. if the need arises, long-range B-2
bombers from bases as far away as Turkey and
Germany may also be employed to launch ground
strikes, especially against targets in northern
Afghanistan. In some cases, air-to-air refuelling
may be necessary. Contrary to popular
perceptions, the US is unlikely to risk using the
Peshawar airfield in Pakistan for launching
either air strikes or commando raids, as the area
comprises mainly the Pushtun tribe that is known
for its hostility and may be armed with Stinger
SAMs. However, the Quetta, Sargodha and
Bahawalpur airbases in central and western
Pakistan are likely to serve as launch pads for
Special Forces operations.
While a
large-scale ground invasion by the US and its
allies can be ruled out, a number of surgical
strikes will be launched by Special Forces to
raid Osama bin Ladens hideouts and those of
his associates. The US Special Forces commandos
like the Delta Force and the Rangers and the
British SAS will be dropped by air or inserted by
helicopters close to the suspected hideouts to
raid and destroy them. Most such operations will
be of short duration (24 to 72 hours) and
helicopters will extricate the commandos.
However, in all cases commando operations will be
launched only after gaining accurate intelligence
after each raid. Search and strike operations
that are not based on prior intelligence would be
risky and are likely to be avoided. In a few
cases, long duration operations may be planned in
which the commandos will be expected to melt into
the countryside, live off the land, gain
intelligence, build a network of sources and
prepare the ground for subsequent surgical
strikes.
Besides a
feel-good effect, the air strikes will have only
limited military utility, as there are very few
major targets that can be hit. The commandos are
also unlikely to meet with major success quickly.
Looking for Osama bin Laden and his unholy
warriors in the numerous folds, ravines, valleys
and caves of the rugged mountainous terrain of
the Hindu Kush will prove to be a daunting
venture. The winter that will set in early
October will make the task even more hazardous
and make the logistics effort considerably more
complex. Eventually, the US and its allies may be
left with no option but to establish a forward
airhead as a launch pad for heliborne Special
Forces operations. The Bagram air base north of
Kabul is ideal for the purpose. It could be
seized by the Northern Alliance and utilised by
the US and its allies for Special Forces
operations. But, whether the US would like to tie
up its future strategic interests with those of
the Northern Alliance is altogether a different
question.
PTI
Feature
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