EDITORIAL

Overdue action

Pakistan has been actively, openly, maliciously sponsoring terrorism in Kashmir for the last one and half decades. The details of Pakistani plans and in Kashmir, their logistic and material projections, all have been described in good detail over these years. There is hardly any aspect of the insurgency in which Pakistan has not been directly involved. And almost every facet of that involvement has been fully, thoroughly exposed. Over the past few years, details of that involvement and implementation of the Pakistani plans have been amply aired by the International.....more

Defense is back

It was a situation of high abnormality that while a hard, real war was going on in its close neighborhood the great Indian State went without a defense minister. The country may not has declared a State of emergency, but the situation is the subcontinent is a very emergent one. A most modern war is being fought in the very close vicinity. The country across the border is actually in high turmoil. The leadership and people there are passing through a very unpredictable phase; probably, the most tricky phase in.....more

Let Pakistan see reason

By P L Khushu
The world scenario is presently chocked and tied with only one cry, which is substantially linked up with terrorism and its ultimate end. The outbursting of .....
more

The simmering casteist
cauldron

By Sondip Bhattacharya
The ruling BJP government in Uttar Pradesh is engagad in evolving a new setup of caste permutation and combination because the forthcoming State .......more

US operations in
Afghanistan : Aims and
objective

By Maj Gen V K Madhok (retired)
As US Operations in Afghanistan progress further questions which arise are. ...
.more

Military response in Afghanistan

By Gurmeet Kanwal
George W. Bush has declared war on terrorism and warned his countrymen, allies and friends that it will be a long drawn ,......
.more

EDITORIAL

Overdue action

Pakistan has been actively, openly, maliciously sponsoring terrorism in Kashmir for the last one and half decades. The details of Pakistani plans and in Kashmir, their logistic and material projections, all have been described in good detail over these years. There is hardly any aspect of the insurgency in which Pakistan has not been directly involved. And almost every facet of that involvement has been fully, thoroughly exposed. Over the past few years, details of that involvement and implementation of the Pakistani plans have been amply aired by the International agencies, including American and British intelligence sources. The greatest proof still, if more were needed, was the headship of the Pakistani State by Musharraf. Musharraf came to fore on the basis of his staunch anti-Indian activities and proclivities. He took over the reigns of power because Nawaz Sharif had been thoroughly discredited in the Kargil fiasco. Not for venturing out there, mind. The venturing out into the Indian territory was what he gained accolades for. It was the aftermath, the decisive defeat that India dealt him that ate up all his credit and credibility.

And the general who had lead him up the garden path took over. Though India and other nations cried foul at the top of their voices over this usurpation of the Pak peoples' prerogative, to the Pakistani people it appeared as the most 'natural thing' to happen. As if it was the logical end to the whole exercise! And, all that was for Kashmir. The only excuse of Musharraf was and is Kashmir. He even tried to tell his people that he had aligned with America against the Taliban to 'get Kashmir'. Would another proof of that nations' complicity in Kashmir be needed? Would another shred of evidence be called for ? It is high interference. Armed interference. Declarations of war against a peaceful neighbor with out reason, without cause, without any logic, save the clear intent to dismember that neighboring country. Musharraf spoke out even that truth very clearly at Agra. Yet the Indian Government has lain back and tried to set in political cunning and prevarication where an unambiguous action was called for. There was no legal provision for Kashmir being given out to Pakistan as a result of the Indian Independence Act of 1947. It was the kings' prerogative. The Muslim majority character of the State was no criteria.

Though the political leaders of the State had no legal say in the affair, India had the moral sanction, of the most popular leader, specifically of Kashmir, not only agreeing to the accession but actually begging the Indian Government to accept the accession offered by the ruler of the State. Yet India acted coy and never spoke of the communal character of the Pakistani interest in Kashmir. It is still acting coy hoping not to be reminded of the religious motivation and interest of the sundry terrorists operating in Kashmir. Nor has the clearly sectarian character and appeal of the so-called Hurriyat been pointed out. The result has been treating the communal and secular forces in the Valley as equally legitimate voices. Failure to ban the terrorist outfits in the Valley is only one aspect of the high Indian confusion in Kashmir; Indian Government actually hopes to come to a settlement with the communalists. And the actions of the Indian State both against the highly communal terrorists and the avowedly communal agenda of Pakistan have both has been reluctant. That is how Pakistan came to treat India as a gaming ground for its communal interests. That is what the secular forces in Kashmir have been demanding; what the national conference and Farooq Abdullah have been calling for: that neither the communalist Pakistan nor its supporters be given any legitimacy, nor allowed any say here. A secular country has the right to reject communalism, and a right to root it out. A right to rebuff foreign interferers in its affairs and rule, too. The hard realization in Akhnoor sector the other day is a fitting reply but not enough to say that realizaiton has sunken in the minds of mandarins of the Home ministry. The nation hopes it does not remain a singular event.

Defense is back

It was a situation of high abnormality that while a hard, real war was going on in its close neighborhood the great Indian State went without a defense minister. The country may not has declared a State of emergency, but the situation is the subcontinent is a very emergent one. A most modern war is being fought in the very close vicinity. The country across the border is actually in high turmoil. The leadership and people there are passing through a very unpredictable phase; probably, the most tricky phase in the short history of that country. The people are up in arms, the army is very active, possibly very piqued too. On the Afghan front they are all helpless with the mighty American war machine raging. And Kashmir is the only card everybody there would like to play. India the eternal hate object of the Pak State and people is what could be used as a diversionary tool by any threatened general or satrap.

And yet India went without a minister for the all important defense ministry. To compound the matters the defense affairs had been entrusted to the already overburdened foreign minister. Now the situation has been remedied to some extent by the appointment of a full-fledged defense minister. George Fernandes has the added advantage of being well acquainted with the defense matters, as he was the minister there not so long ago. He was the one who steered the limited war at Kargil to a good fruitition. And as an acclaimed rights activist all his life. George Fernandes has a stature all his own. Probably, all these considerations mattered when Prime Minister was making his choice to give defense a head. Else, it would have been in the fitness of things to wait for the Venkataswami Commission to come out with its findings in de affaire la Tehelka.

Let Pakistan see reason

By P L Khushu

The world scenario is presently chocked and tied with only one cry, which is substantially linked up with terrorism and its ultimate end. The outbursting of this cry came to recognition only after recent brutal acts of terrorism in New York. United States of America is horribly shaken and rightly so and is aspiring to catch the mentors of such acts dead or alive. It is certainly appreciating to see the super power of the world so much concerned about the global terrorism and certainly deserves all types of moral support by all the nations of the world. India in this context has to be amongst the front ranking nations, but while doing so, the support has to be limited to the status of moral sympathy and support only. Over indulgence like that of Pakistan can be counter productive and harmful in the long run for the Indian nation and its nationals. India has been facing the brutal acts of cross border terrorism for the last more than a decade and serious concern in this regard have been shown and aired by Indian nation right from the first day of the start of terrorism in all forums of International status. Beyond just listening to the Indian woes, nothing tangible or substantial was done by any other super power to come to the rescue of the Indian Polity, beyond extending a civilised support to the scorning part of the cross border terror and its ism. Had these super powers understood and appreciated the Indian concern well in time, today’s situation of America would have never arisen. Now that cross border terrorism has taken the shape of global terrorism and has become vivid and nacent because of the New York attack, the think tank probables of the Indian Governance has to have a cautious approach towards the same. Terror sponsored by an individual or group of individuals, as also a single country or nation should in no way be commuted as a war or hate for the populace of a particular faith or religion, particularly for the Indian nation where people of different religious faiths live, the conceptual part of terror should be got diluted and annihilated by involving all the saner sections and sects of the Indian population. India’s concern about the terrorism shall continue to be on the log books as long as the same is active, be it in J&K, North Eastern States or Punjab. The terrorism in Punjab has ultimately got buried some how in Punjab itself. This has happened with the able and determined civilised administrative and political capabilities of Indian Governance and not through a war hysteria or cry as is being witnessed now globally. India has to be a part of the International community for deciphering and uprootment process of the terrorism but the approach has to be more of human nature as against the total war cry which has entangled the whole world right now. Super powers or nations getting grouped for absolute war may do so at their own will, but it should certainly not engulf Indian society or soil. India believes in democratic means and ends and has thus to continue the same as a special & specific non-aligned nation. Aspecting the war cry of super powers through India’s corridor, will mean something bad for this nation. While all the sympathies should be with America because of New York carnage and other brutal acts on it, somebody, somewhere shall have to remind and tell such powers of their erstwhile role in regard to terrorism. Now that it has engulfed these powers also, let them face it within their own parameters of course, with a sympathetic pat from India.

War against terrorism by some super powers should be their own concern as obvious inferences by such a cry against a class or community or a sect will mean a bigger trouble. India can hardly afford to be an active partner of such a type of cry as this nation believes in tolerance, mutual respect, good governance of brotherhood as also supreme regard for human rights, which our Constitution guarantees in un-equivocal terms.

India is facing and countering cross border terrorism for our suspects in this regard are evidently identified and known. Our neighbour viz, Pakistan has exposed itself to a deep degree of bad taste and grace and to our extreme astonishment the present rulers of that country are cobwebed within their own web of self inscribed web of terror. It is a situation of choosing between the devil and a deep sea for such rulers now. India has to tackle them with wisdom as no further recognition for their such acts is needed. Entire India and its nationals know that our problem is from our neighbour. Simultaneously if some good amount of wisdom is left with the terrorists operating in J&K state, they should abandon the patronage of Pakistan now atleast as it has left the Talibani’s and Afgani’s in lurch. Similarly super powers should also understand the double speak of Pakistan. They can not be friends of any body as per their latest approach. While as Pakistan Government is now bent to support international effort to curb terrorism, what about its own acts of promoting of terrorism in Jammu & Kashmir. Even the present ruler of Pakistan, General Parvez Musharraf is on record to have said that if India does not leave Kashmir, the Jihadis would do an Afganistan on it and Pakistan can not stop them as they are freedom fighters. It is now looking like to put the cart before the horse. The general has deserted the same Afganistan and there was rather no other alternative beyond that. Similar wisdom shall prevail upon such rulers in regard to Kashmir also. No power in the world can sustain terrorism now. It has to go and let it go happily without further blood shed. The powers which are trying to create an impression that terrorism is an offshoot of jihad are miserably mistaken in so far as Indian polity is concerned. Recently, Iran has dubbed ideological formulations of the Taliban as a ‘vulgarisation of Islam’. Indian is proud to contain Islam in its lap for ages. Thus the war cry across the sea trying to invade Taliban or Afganistan should not be concluded as Indian inclusion also. Now that the recognition of global terrorism is almost a certified entity, the cross border terrorism of Pakistan in J&K should die naturally.

Albeit the human cry across the whole world the abettors behind terrorism have managed to inject another dose of terror and mass killings while executing such an attack recently in J&K Assembly campus. So many innocent human lives have been wiped away for no fault of theirs. Under such circumstances it has to be declared now finally that what bin Laden is to America and others, Pakistan is a bigger bin Laden to India and particularly to Kashmir. If perforce India is forced to engage itself with International Community for fighting global terrorism, and capture Bin La Din dead or alive, the fore-most pre condition in this context on India’s part should be to get Pakistan isolated as a terrorist country and ensure all types of resolute barriers of sorts to be imposed upon it by the International Community, particularly the western powers. Pakistan seems to have earned a cake by another proxy deceit by getting Talibans marginalised and disowning them for foreign consumption as also domestic consumption. Since its economy as also internal security is at its lowest ebb presently, it has scored a point by siding with USA and U.K. unceremoniously and thus sold their pound of flesh by getting economic support by way of millions of dollars from Western Countries. This speaks volumes about they credentials of the present rulers of Pakistan. Thus India has to continue to go with its declared war against terrorism alone. Dr. Farooq’s sentiments expressed by him recently and his tearful emotional sobbings, along with his other colleagues of the J&K Assembly should be considered the extreme parameters of the broken patience of the people of Jammu & Kashmir..

Indian’s apart, the people of J&K should not be made to suffer now on a different count. Kashmir is a war torn place and what New York has seen now the people of Jammu & Kashmir have been tasting it ever since a decade. Terrorism has broken its culture, economy, as also beauty. What did the mentors across the border get out of it. Probably nothing, other than devastation of Kashmir. Let them understand the language & see the writing on the wall that now it is their turn. Let them not devastate humanity.

The simmering casteist cauldron

By Sondip Bhattacharya

The ruling BJP government in Uttar Pradesh is engagad in evolving a new setup of caste permutation and combination because the forthcoming State Assembly elections are critical for the ruling coalition. The outcome will have a direct impact on the leadership of Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and the NDA Government at the Centre. Mr. Vajpayee has himself conveyed the message to the members of the Sangh Parivar that the future of his NDA Government is linked with the outcome of UP Assembly elections. BJP’s Chief Minister Rajnath Singh has already put forward a new scheme of "reservations within reservations" and "jobs within jobs" for the Dalits and the backward castes by slicising (from slice) the quotas around Backward Castes, the Extremely Most Backward Castes, and the Muslim Backward Castes. By opening a Pandora’s box of "socially backward versus other socially backward castes", Mr. Singh has posed a potent political challenge to the caste-based Bahujan Samaj party of Mr. Kanshi Ram, and the Samajwadi Party of Mr. Mulayam Singh Yadav.

It deserves to be stated that political compromises made by the Congress in UP have led to a situation where it is not at all in the reckoning and now the political triangle consists of the BJP, BSP and Samajwadi Party. This is the reason that the BJP is playing a "caste card in politics" because its two main political rivals have strong caste-based social support among the Jatavas or Chamars of the BSP, and Yadavs of the Samajwadi party. None of these three contenders for power in UP are taking the Congress even as a marginal factor in the forthcoming elections. Mr. Rajnath Singh appointed a Social Justice Committee under Mr. Hukam Singh to look into the 27 per cent quota of reservations of public positions for the backward castes of Uttar Pradesh.

This Social Justice Committee of the BJP State Government has followed the path shown by Mr. V. P. Singh, who played the caste reservation game to protect his temporary prime ministership in August, 1990. Incidentally, Mr. V. P. Singh, the "messiah" of the worst kind of casteist politics in India, proclaimed the acceptance of Mandal Commission Report on reservations in public services in the name of social justice for the backward castes. It is ironical that the worst kind of casteist politicians of UP conceal their activity of vulgar manipulative politics by taking recourse to the ideology of social justice.

The Rajnath Singh Government’s new policy of sub-quotas for reservations is based on sub-division of 27 per cent quota into five per cent for the Yadavs, nine per cent for eight most backward castes which also includes Lodhs, Kurmis and the Jats; and the remaining 14 per cent of reservations are for the 70 other backward castes. Further, 22 Muslim castes have been also given benefits of reservations in the category of Extremely Most Backward Castes. This new casteist politics of the BJP has completely rattled Mr. Mulayam Singh Yadav, Mr. Kanshi Ram and other sub-caste leaders, who feel threatened because "quotas within quota" caste policy has directly hit the caste support base of the two leaders. Mr. Mulayam Singh Yadav has jumped into the "new debate" by observing that "we want 11 to 15 per cent of State Government jobs to be reserved for the poor from the upper castes". Mr. Kanshi Ram, while criticising the policy of "reservation within reservation" of the Manuwadi BJP, has demanded reservation in the private sector.

Another UP leader Beni Prasad Verma wants "reservation on the basis of caste percentage of Uttar Pradesh population" and Mr. Kanshi Ram too wants caste-based census of the State’s population for determining the quota for reservations for each caste. The national leadership of the BJP, which is deeply involved in the politics of elections to the UP Assembly, desires that the Hukum Singh UP Social Justice Committee should also find ways and means for five per cent "economically backward" sections among the upper castes.

Why is the caravan of caste and sub-caste based reservations moving forward? Why has the BJP jumped into the caste-based politics of UP? What has been the impact of caste-based politics on the governance of the State? How has politics of caste impacted civil society in UP? These questions about the ongoing drama of casteisation, communalisation, criminalisation and complete marginalisation of secular, progressive forces in UP cannot be answered without contextualisation of the social order in the State.

A few important feature of political and socio-cultural profile of UP may be mentioned to properly comprehend its continuing downslide. UP was a very important headquarters of the Congress, socialists, communists, Muslim Leaguers and Hindu Maha Sabha-ites, and all these political tendencies were actively involved in political competition during the struggle for freedom. Every major ideological group was found in an active contest in UP and every major ideology had its own active followers and leaders. Every major ideology in the State thus received its intellectual sustenance from highly developed universities and colleges.

The Uttar Pradesh intelligentsia, along with the literati, supported and supplemented contending ideologies in the State. On the eve of independence, UP launched its journey with all the assets and liabilities of this historical inheritance. If on the one hand, UP could boast of its ideological and organisational capital, on the other, Partition of India left the State as a completely fractured society. UP needed a healing touch because its leadership and political formations had not only to fight against the monster of communalism, the Muslim minority too had to be assured that it was absolutely safe in India. Nehru’s Congress, Acharya Narendra Dev’s socialists and Z.A. Ahmad’s communists were very active in providing a socially progressive political umbrella to all communities against communal forces in the State.

The major generalisation from this pre-independence and post-independence social profile of UP is that it started its democratic journey with a good network of party organisation, trade unions, kisan sabhas, student unions and provincial, regional, district, city, town and village level organisational leadership. How was this great asset of politics squandered away? The Nehru Congress at the apex was socially progressive, but Congress leadership in UP was socially conservative and practitioner of caste and soft Hindutva. Congress social class and caste alliance in UP consisted of the "twice born castes" with the hegemony of Brahmins, Thakurs, Rajputs, Banias and Kayasthas in this order, and for the winning of an election, the Congress created a powerful social constituency among Muslims and Scheduled Castes.

The political superstructure of UP reveals the social essence of the Congress’s leadership. Govind Ballabh Pant, Dr Sampurnanand, Chandra Bhanu Gupta, Kamlapati Tripathi, H. N. Bahuguna, Narain Dutt Tiwari and V. P. Singh occupied the highest echelons of power in the UP Congress, and the odd man out was Chaudhary Charan Singh, who was looked down upon by the high caste leaders as a rough Jat peasant. Not only this. All the major players in UP politics combined their social conservatism with the practice of soft Hindutva and caste-based loyalties. How far the three major political parties benefit from the emerging casteist formula remains to be seen. But what is certain that the State has been torn asunder ; and one can only expect violence during the election. INAV

US operations in Afghanistan : Aims and objective

By Maj Gen V K Madhok (retired)

As US Operations in Afghanistan progress further questions which arise are. What is the overall concept of American strategy? Is US interest confined to removal of Terrorism, occupation of Afghanistan and eliminating Osama bin Laden? Or its Chief concern is its oil security in the Gulf? Also, Pakistan's compulsions and has Islamabad made the right choice and its future role? Has India been marginalised? What is the post Taliban scenario? Finally,what incidents can set in motion another entirely new major change in the present situation?

US has always aimed at keeping the war away from its Homeland. Accordingly, military and logistic bases were established in South Korea, Japan,Diego Garcia, Middle East and the like. Troops, Air and Naval Fleets remain positioned at these bases at various stages of readiness. Alliances have been entered into support Allies with a view to protect US interests. And the only threat visualized to US Homeland was considered to be from missiles fired by the so called Rogue states to counter which NMD (National Missile Defence) was being discussed. But the Sep 11,2001 four terrorist attacks causing nearly 7000 casualties have changed all that.These sent shock waves and a clear signal that the Homeland was not safe. That such terrorist attacks could endanger US interests abroad such as the oil supplies from the Gulf and therefore, as a first step,the need to deal with Afghanistan.

Whether this is a right conclusion that Afghanistan is the source of all ter- rorism and Osama bin Laden is the chief perpetrator are matters which cannot be decided in a hurry. But Afghanistan was easy to deal with considering its ill equipped Taliban forces and a Northern Alliance already pitched in battle with their counterparts. More important, leaving Afghanistan alone would have emboldened Iran and Iraq to threaten US oil supplies. Besides,a state of no action would have had a most demoralising affect within America.

But all this could not be done without Pakistan's assistance and all out co-o peration. Accordingly, a major shift took place to woe and befriends Pakistan to win it back as an Ally. For which massive economic benefits, lifting of economic sanctions and restrictions on supply of military hardware have been removed. And more rewards will follow.

In Pakistan it was a hard and certainly a bold decision by Gen Musharraf to support the US in an anti US environment in Pakistan. Also, to tell the Talibans,who are supported by Fundamentalist and Jehadi Groups that their days were numbered if they failed to hand over bin Laden. Besides, Pakistan is a strategic partner of China. Should Musharraf succeed Pakistan will be benefitted immensely so far as its economy and sources of military hardware and technology are concerned. Therefore, his intent to share intelligence, allow the use of Pakistan's air space and even airfields and perhaps much more, have been steps in the right direction.

As regards US overall concept: This was finalised after Pakistan's approval. It centres around three essentials: A sharp and swift military action avoiding civil casualties, installation of a post Taliban regime and reconstruction of Afghanistan alongwith humanitarian aid. Accordingly, military operations have aimed at destroying Taliban training camps, command headquarters, supply and ammunition depots, their Anti Aircraft batteries and whatever helicopters and aircraft they had at their airfields. This also includes support of Northern Alliance with logistics and military hardware from Tajik and Uzbekistan airfields and camps. Further, US has positioned nearly one thousand troops there and more will follow and & if necessary, spearhead ground operations should Northern Alliance fail to make progress.

Concurrently, strategies are being discussed for the post Taliban regime in which China too is greatly interested. The most likely option appears to be an interim arrangement headed by ex King Zahir Shah with a broad representative Government consisting of all ethnic groups. Pakistan has clearly stated that it is against a Government led by Northern Alliance consisting of Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras who constitute 15 per cent each of total population while Pushtoons form 50-60 percent of the population. Besides, Pakistan has always been anti Northern Alliance which has been inclined towards India.

It is clear that military operations wont last long, may be a couple of days. Already, the Afghanistan air space is clear which permits move of heliborne troops and para dropping anywhere in Afghanistan. Many senior Taliban commanders and troops are already deserting. And those who refuse to join the broad based alliance will flee to the mountains in a hope of conducting guerrilla war in the future. In addition, some aid has already been dropped for civilian refugees and reconstruction strategies are being discussed.

But all said and done, the overall interest of US continues to be its oil security. For the last ten years efforts are being made to make use of alternate sources of oil and gas from Turkmenistan and Kazygstan, through pipelines laid in Afghanistan to Pakistan's ports. All this could not be done due to non co-operation by Talibans and an anti US stance by Pakistan. But now this can be done because Pakistan sees a window of opportunity in all this.

The ultimate scenario which could emerge is a friendly Afghanistan, both to the US, Pakistan and even Russia, permitting transportation of oil and gas, with a strong military presence in the Gulf by the US to keep away Iran and Iraq from doing any mischief. And so far as dealing with global terrorism, it cannot be done without a global coalition and a frame work established by the UNO. And that will take time.

But what happens if Musharraf is eliminated by a military coup or even assassinated. In which case, a Jamate Islami led Government, supported by Talibans and hardliners in the Army can come to power in Islamabad. And this Government with a nuclear button in its hand will refuse to cooperate with the US making its position very difficult. Or a germ attack takes place in the US.

Accordingly, Musharraf has become a period commodity so far as the US and even India are concerned. Thus US is in a hurry to eliminate the Talibans and to get a friendly concerned. Thus US is in a hurry to something happens to Musharraf. So far us India is concerned, it remains truly marginalised.Its political leaders have remained just as observers.

Military response in Afghanistan

By Gurmeet Kanwal

George W. Bush has declared war on terrorism and warned his countrymen, allies and friends that it will be a long drawn affair. In fact, the operation has been named "Enduring Freedom''. While the real war will be against the vast global terror network of Osama bin Laden’s Al Qaeda and its many associate terrorist organisations and will undoubtedly require time, patience and painstaking effort to succeed, the United States (US) administration will feel compelled to show some early results to assuage the wave of anger and bitterness still sweeping across America. To this end, the US and allied forces, military juggernaut is rolling forward and the Taliban militia in Afghanistan is to bear the brunt of its massive firepowe r.

The initial US military objectives will be two-fold. First, to destroy the Taliban’s war waging potential so that a more representative and moderate regime can be eventually installed in Kabul, a government that will assist the international community in its fight against terrorism. Secondly, to destroy bin Laden’s known camps and bring him to justice. The Taliban’s combat aircraft (10 SU-22 fighter bombers, 5 MiG-21 fighters, about 40 transport aircraft and 10 cargo helicopters), 500 tanks, assorted artillery pieces including rocket launchers and air defence weapons and the airstrips at Kabul, Kandahar and Bagram will be the primary targets for stand off weapons like air-to-surface missiles and even Tomahawk cruise missiles an the first few days after air strikes are launched. The shoulder fired Stinger surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), approximately 80 of which are still held by the Taliban, will impose considerable caution on US pilots. These missiles were given by the CIA to Pakistan’s isi during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s and were passed on by the ISI to the Taliban.

The secondary target list will include previously identified headquarters and communications centres, known fuel dumps, arms and ammunition stores and related military assets. Most of these will be hit on subsequent days after the Taliban’s air defence resources have been credibly destroyed. For these strikes the US will employ fighter ground-attack aircraft like the Warthog that will not only come screaming in to launch close range rocket attacks but also take pictures of the devastation that they cause so that people back home get to see that America is getting even. While the US and its allies will take care to avoid causing civilian casualties, considerable collateral damage may be expected to occur. The Afghans fleeing from their homes will run into the countless landmines that have been carelessly strewn over the countryside over two decades of bitter fighting. Depending on the ferocity of the air strikes, a humanitarian disaster of huge proportions may be expected to unfold.

The initial air strikes will be multi-directional and will be launched from several different types of weapons platforms. The three aircraft carrier battle groups (USS Enterprise, Theodore Roosevelt and Carl Vinson), deployed in the Persian Gulf and northern Arabian Sea, will employ F-18 Hornet fighter ground attack aircraft (FGA) for ground strikes and F-14 Tomcats for air defence escorts. Early warning and control will be provided by E- 2C Hawkeye AWACS aircraft. Besides nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, the battle groups comprise cruisers, destroyers, frigates, attack submarines and support ships. British aircraft carrier HMS Illustrious and its sister ships are also likely to pitch in for the strikes with Sea Harrier jump jets. Most of these aircraft will have to overfly Pakistani airspace, as Iran is not willing to extend military cooperation to the US and allied forces. Tomahawk cruise missiles will again be used though not in very large numbers. Each Tomahawk costs about $1 million and the stocks depleted during the 1999 strikes against Serbian forces are yet to be fully replenished.

US B-52 bombers from Diego Garcia, F-15 and F-16 fighter- bombers and British Tornados from air bases in Saudi Arabia, Oman, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar are likely to be utilised for delivering heavier payloads against larger targets such as air strips. if the need arises, long-range B-2 bombers from bases as far away as Turkey and Germany may also be employed to launch ground strikes, especially against targets in northern Afghanistan. In some cases, air-to-air refuelling may be necessary. Contrary to popular perceptions, the US is unlikely to risk using the Peshawar airfield in Pakistan for launching either air strikes or commando raids, as the area comprises mainly the Pushtun tribe that is known for its hostility and may be armed with Stinger SAMs. However, the Quetta, Sargodha and Bahawalpur airbases in central and western Pakistan are likely to serve as launch pads for Special Forces operations.

While a large-scale ground invasion by the US and its allies can be ruled out, a number of surgical strikes will be launched by Special Forces to raid Osama bin Laden’s hideouts and those of his associates. The US Special Forces commandos like the Delta Force and the Rangers and the British SAS will be dropped by air or inserted by helicopters close to the suspected hideouts to raid and destroy them. Most such operations will be of short duration (24 to 72 hours) and helicopters will extricate the commandos. However, in all cases commando operations will be launched only after gaining accurate intelligence after each raid. Search and strike operations that are not based on prior intelligence would be risky and are likely to be avoided. In a few cases, long duration operations may be planned in which the commandos will be expected to melt into the countryside, live off the land, gain intelligence, build a network of sources and prepare the ground for subsequent surgical strikes.

Besides a feel-good effect, the air strikes will have only limited military utility, as there are very few major targets that can be hit. The commandos are also unlikely to meet with major success quickly. Looking for Osama bin Laden and his unholy warriors in the numerous folds, ravines, valleys and caves of the rugged mountainous terrain of the Hindu Kush will prove to be a daunting venture. The winter that will set in early October will make the task even more hazardous and make the logistics effort considerably more complex. Eventually, the US and its allies may be left with no option but to establish a forward airhead as a launch pad for heliborne Special Forces operations. The Bagram air base north of Kabul is ideal for the purpose. It could be seized by the Northern Alliance and utilised by the US and its allies for Special Forces operations. But, whether the US would like to tie up its future strategic interests with those of the Northern Alliance is altogether a different question.

PTI Feature

 



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