Rise and fall of graphs

By M J Akbar

President Pervez Musharraf's graph was rising in Washington at precisely the same time that Mullah Muhammad Omar's graph was collapsing in Kabul and Kandahar. Are the two related? Were the cynics of the Western world being especially nice to President Musharraf on his world tour while they took over his backyard?

The thought is not purely provocative. On Saturday evening in the elegant environment of New York's Waldorf Astoria President George Bush made it a point to please his guest by saying that the Northern Alliance, which has repeatedly expressed its hostility to Islamabad, should restrict its victories to Mazar-e-Sharif and perhaps move down south bypassing Kabul. When the commanders of the Alliance bypassed the White House and went straight for the jugular, the same President Bush, now in the company of Vladimir Putin, could barely restrain his delight. Matching glee has not been forthcoming from Islamabad. This is understandable. No matter who forms the next Government in Kabul, Pakistan will never have the kind of influence and even authority it possessed, as long as the Taliban was in power, over a nation vital to its strategic interests.

On the day that President Bush was supporting President Musharraf's hands-off-Kabul policy, maybe at that very moment, James Clark and Adam Nathan, on board USS Theodore Roosevelt, were reporting for The Sunday Times that the Northern Alliance had been "urged by Britain and America last night to mount a swift offensive towards the capital, Kabul, driving home their advantage after a string of successes in the north." Either President Bush was fooling President Musharraf or he was fooling The Sunday Times. The game was rather given away by Geoff Hoon, Britain's Defence Minister, who told The Sunday Times: "I would be quite happy to see the Northern Alliance steam across the northern Afghanistan and take Kabul."

Now that Kabul has fallen like a house of cards, we have to search for winners and losers in this high-stakes poker game that began on such an explosive note on 11 September. It might be stating the obvious to describe the Taliban as losers. But that depends on the definition of the Taliban. If the Taliban is a movement then it will re-space itself and wait for history to give it another opportunity. If it has acquired vested interests and become a Government, then it will fragment and disappear. There could be a third option: those of the Taliban who became a Government and used power to achieve personal or political purposes might disintegrate, while a new ideological core could reinvent a movement from the shreds of this moment. In all cases, the burden will fall on Pakistan; for the Taliban, in any manifestation, has nowhere else to go except to return from where it started. The situation is similar for Al Qaeda, which had charismatic leadership, fidayeen followers and, thus for a safe base from where to operate. Theoretically, those of its members who were not from Pakistan could hope to return to their original Arab countries or Bangladesh, or wherever. But they will not be welcome. Their Governments do not want their ideas at home, and in any case will be reluctant to confront the United States on their behalf. A ticket to Bangladesh would be equivalent to a ticket to trial in the United States as Washington continues its war on terrorism.

It is probably safe to suggest that Osama bin Laden will not surrender or leave his camp in Afghanistan; he will die fighting, or be killed by incendiary bombardment as has happened to some of his companions. But most of his followers will walk through the passes to Pakistan, as will the Taliban (the latter have already begun to do so). Will Mullah Omar seek refuge in Peshwar? He, unlike Osama, has not been accused personally of masterminding the attack of 11 September. What about the ministers of the Taliban Government? Will they be picked up by the Pakistan authorities and handed over for war trials? Then there will be Osama's family, an emotional resource for those who want to continue the war against the United States. Each one of these issues is a time bomb ticking at the heart of the Pakistan establishment.

In strategic terms, a decade of Pakistan policy has been decimated by the defeat of the Taliban. Civilians lake Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif were as responsible as the army for the presence of the Taliban in Kabul, and why not? Foreign policy and national interest should be non-partisan. One of the more remarkable facts (and one that might make the West uncomfortable) is that the Government of President Musharraf had persuaded the West to accept the Taliban Government as a reality without an alternative. This was an extraordinary success of Pakistani diplomacy. The process of legitimisation of a Government in Kabul that was in total harmony with Islamabad's interests had gone a long way forward when, literally out of the blue, 11 September destroyed so many years of patience. No Afghan Government in the foreseeable future will have anything but a formal relationship with Islamabad. As for the ISI's role in Kabul's decision-making; that is now effectively dead. Exclusive investigations published in Dawn and Herald prove that without the help of ISI operatives and Pakistan's military specialists in the last five years, the Taliban's successes against the Northern Alliance would have been less spectacular than they have been. M. Illyas Khan reports, with convincing detail, in the November issue of the Herald that the ISI supplied massive quantities of arms to the Taliban and that these supplies continued even in October this year. He reports: "In the dead of night on October 13, a convoy of 12 'tarpaulin-covered' trucks entered Afghanistan via the old Kurram Agency route, apparently escorted by military personnel. One wonders what the US spy satellites made of them."

No particular need to wonder; the information is almost certainly in some safe deposit, gathering interest, waiting to be sprung upon Islamabad when the West's operational forces and the Northern Alliance have completed their military operations. It is possible that Islamabad believed Mullah Muhammad Omar's claims that the Taliban could fight another ten years or a hundred years or whatever; intelligence agencies all over the world end up being gulled by their proteges. The shock in Islamabad when the Taliban punctured in Kabul was apparent. Not too long ago President Musharraf was asking America not to continue bombing during Ramzan. He did not estimate then that there might be very little left to bomb by Ramzan. As the holy month begins, American bombing is targeted at the homes or hideouts of specific Taliban and Al Qaeda commanders. There is not much left to protest about.

Pakistan goes back to worrying about two borders rather than one. And there are a few things to worry about on the eastern border as well. I do not know if President Musharraf picked up a signal beeping, softly, from more than one transmitter in the West during his tour. The debate on the difference between a freedom fighter and a terrorist is nearly over. There is a new consensus that you cannot really redraw the maps of nations anymore, irrespective of past rights and wrongs. It is simply too dangerous to do so. Vladimir Putin, for instance, has picked up this signal. Washington, which used to have a few things to say about repression against the Chechens, is now happy to leave it off the agenda of either bilateral discussions or multilateral concern. When definitions were being formulated from the debris of 11 September, Sri Lanka, quite naturally, asked whether the LTTE would be considered terrorists or freedom fighters. The answer has come. Terrorists. The freeze has started with bank accounts.

This does not mean a blank cheque for Delhi in Kashmir; but it does mean something that could be unacceptable to Islamabad. Nothing would make the rest of the world happier than to see a settlement of the Kashmir dispute along the Line of Control, with marginal adjustments. Similarly, there will be pressure on Israel and Palestine to accept a partition of Jerusalem and get on with the rest of life. This is no assurance that India and Pakistan, or for that matter Israel and Palestine, will submit to lines drawn to their west; but any arguments against what seems reasonable, or against rational compromise, will not find too large an audience. This, by the way, is the good news. Don't ask me what the bad news could be.

The relief in Washington at the collapse of Kabul is visible; it will take longer to reassure the rest of America. In one sense the whole of America has become Ground Zero, as it remains haunted by the possibility of what could happen even more than by what did happen. The American Airlines accident renewed an ebbing nightmare. At the top, the pecking order has changed. Vice President Dick Cheney, who was once called the real president, is at the receiving end of the joke now. Each time there is any hint of a crisis, they haul him off to some "safe destination" and smile thinly as they do so. (On September 11 George Bush was sent to a "safe destination" by Cheney.) More recent is the victory of defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld over secretary of State Colin Powell. Powell has been pessimistic about the military strategy; he too overestimated the Taliban. It could be that the State Department's intelligence analysis was influenced by Islamabad.

It is a Bush-Rumsfeld war now. Suits Texas.

As for Kabul itself: there used to be a joke when military operations started that the time to buy stock in razor blades had come. A whole new market was opening up. A picture sent by the agencies this week makes the point. A barber is shaving the beard of a thirty-something man who looks at the mirror with aplomb as he rediscovers his face. We can't see who the barber is, but of course we can see the hand holding the oldfashioned razor. On the barber's wrist is a flashy new watch. You can see it glinting even in the photograph. It's a good time to be a barbar in Kabul.

PoK refugees’ long wait for justice

By O P Modi

It has been a long wait for justice and fulfillment of their rights as bona- fide state subjects of Jammu & Kashmir. Fifty-four years have gone by when they lost everything in Pak occupied Kashmir (PoK). Their near and dear ones, their homes, their lands and their moveable properties, all were left behind. They came from Muzaffarabad to Kashmir valley; penniless and clad in just what they were wearing at the time the Pakistani tribals in 1947 attacked them on 22nd October. In a few days, after that, hundreds of thousands others fled from their dwellings in Mirpur, Kotli, Bhimber, Plunderi, Bagh and Rawlakote towns and villages of the state, when they too were attacked and their kith and kin were massacred before their very eyes.

Nearly fifty thousand families migrated to safe places in Kashmir valley and Jammu region. However, those who had entered the Valley from Muzaffarabad division were not allowed to settle there. All of them were made to leave for Jammu. Later many families migrated to Delhi and other parts of the country. During more than half a century, after the holocaust in what is now called PoK, the brave and resilient people of those areas have managed to live respectable lives. But the feeling of hurt that they have been betrayed all these years, by the successive state and central governments, is deep and continuing. Most distressing is the complete lack of sympathy for them on the part of both the governments.

It is the bounden duty of any Government to protect the lives, honour and properties of its subjects. Failure of the Maharaja’s Government to save the people of these areas does not, in any way, absolve the successor governments from settling the legitimate demands of the refugees As the assets of the State have been taken over by the successor Government the liabilities too have to be accepted and settled by it . To meet the ends of natural justice the present Government of Jammu and Kashmir and the Union Government are bound to judiciously settle the claims of the refugees from PoK. They were ousted from their homes and hearths for no fault of theirs. Neither the lapse of time ( in this case fifty four years) nor the fact that most of them are presently doing well can be an excuse to "close the file" as Syed Mufti Mohammed is said to have done when he was the Union Home Minister. It is not because of any governmental support that PoK refugees have been able to establish themselves decently. Rather the Government must be thankful to them for not having become a continuing liability for it. It is merely by the dint of their hard work that they have not only self supported themselves but many out of them have attained distinction in life.

The refugees’ organisation launched its first agitation in early fifties; in the course of which their leaders and workers were arrested and put behind bars. In 1954-55 Master Roshan Lal and his colleagues were arrested and suffered imprisonment for six months for raising their voice for the rights of the refugees. Bachan Singh Panchi president Sharnarthi Action Committee, also took up the cause of thousands of refugees. For over forty years he and his supporters relentlessly struggled for the rights of the "Sharnarthis" (refugees). Panchi a tall, well built and outspoken leader of the movement continued his struggle for the rights of the refugees without any let up. Among others who have fought for the cause the names of Sardar Rangil Singh, Janak Singh, Jai Ram Sharma, Mahant Dhana Singh, Ram Lal Verma, Capt. R.C. Raina, Yashpaul Gupta and Rajiv Chuni stand out prominently. Bachan Singh Panchi’s persistent efforts resulted in the visit of a Parliamentary Committee to the State. It is reported that the Committee recommended an ex-gratia payment of Rs.25,000/- besides some other benefits to each refugee family. The Government has failed to pay even this meager sum; the payment of which, at the least, could have proved that it did care for its citizens who were uprooted from their homes. Despite the sacrifices made by these leaders the demands of the refugees continue to be ignored by the State as well as the Central Government.

Initially the refugees, who were later designated as Displaced Persons (DPs), were asked to get registered with the State Government. Almost every one is reported to have been registered with the state authorities. The claims for the deposits with Jammu & Kashmir Bank, functioning in PoK at the time of country’s partition, were also made by the DPs. At that time two more banks namely: Bank of Lahore and Central Coperative Bank, were also functioning in Mirpur. It is well known that the J&K Bank was able to retrieve its record from PoK and the details of the deposits can be verified easily if there is a will on the part of the authorities to do so. However, the amount of the claims made during 1953-54 will have to be calculated based on the value of rupee then and whatever it may be at the time of their settlement.

Unfortunately while the successive state governments did not take up the issue of compensation sincerely, it could have vigorously taken up the matter with New Delhi. After the state’s accession with Indian Union, Government of India is bound either to restore back to the refugees their immovable properties left in PoK by waging a war against Pakistan or else pay full compensation to them for such properties.

A few months back an organisation of the refugees filed a writ petition with the Supreme Court of India which had to be withdrawn later. Intimating the reasons for withdrawing the writ petition their Advocate in his letter to the petitioners states "During the course of argument on admission by Honourable Judges that if the Honourable Supreme Court inclined to pass the award directing the Government to pay the compensation, in whose favour and to whom the award should be disbursed and therefore advised to file in the individual capacity representing on behalf of the Association together names of the members of the Association giving particulars of their address and background with documents if any to hold that such of the members, ancestors have been uprooted or migrated from the part of area of Jammu & Kashmir, displaced from Poonch, Muzaffarabad, Mirpur, Kotli Bhimber etc." The advocate further writes that if the Supreme Court was in a "negative mood" it could have asked the petitioners to file their writ with the J&K High Court or approach the State Government.

It is a classic case of a government’s neglect of those who stunned by an enormous tragedy get scattered and fail to raise a forceful hue and cry. It is a fact that only a vociferous and united people can get their demands settled from an apathetic Government. Perhaps the Apex Court of the country could come to the rescue of the PoK refugees. However, it will require lots of patience and the will on the part of their leaders to get the long awaited justice to them.