EDITORIAL
Resounding
Vajpayee
Strange though it may look
but it is a fact that where the lion hunts, the fox
visits too; the feast that lion tastes, the fox also
comes to partake.Yet the two are separated in a way, the
sociologists may find difficult to distinguish, but the
laymen never miss. Though the analogy may not be exactly
fitted to the actions and behaviors of the India and
Pakistan, their attitudes and gains, it illustrates that
there are things where a subtle shade .....more
Sounded
Musharraf
If Vajpayees
statesmanship resounded over the vistas of the United
Nations of the world, he was also able to get the
Pakistan president suitable re- sounded, for his
commitment to the world war against the menace
threatening the world. Whatever certificates the general
may collect from the US state departments, it is hard for
him to clear his and his ....... .more
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NC,
Hurriyat should
lead KPs from front
By Pushp Saraf
I would speak to you as one member of a family talks to
its other members. Therefore, I would be talking on the
basis of my personal experiences about communal and
regional feelings in our state. I was barely 16 when ...more
Strengthening
Indo-German bilateral relations
By I. P. Singh
German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's long scheduled trip
to India came in the midst of the war in Afghanistan,
which served to partially overshadow the bilateral aspect
of the visit. The visit to India was meant to give a
fillip to .. .more
Preventing
disasters
By Chandramohan Pathak
The Smithsonian Institute has issued a warning that the
North India may be hit by a severe earthquake anytime
before 2005. Earlier, the Institute had predicted a
disaster for the Deccan plateau which took place in the
form of ... .more
|
EDITORIAL
Resounding Vajpayee
Strange though it may look
but it is a fact that where the lion hunts, the fox
visits too; the feast that lion tastes, the fox also
comes to partake.Yet the two are separated in a way, the
sociologists may find difficult to distinguish, but the
laymen never miss. Though the analogy may not be exactly
fitted to the actions and behaviors of the India and
Pakistan, their attitudes and gains, it illustrates that
there are things where a subtle shade makes a huge
difference to the whole perspective. Prime Minister
Vajpayee and Pakistans Musharraf both went to the
UN conference and addressed the general assembly on the
same American day. They were worried over the same
problem though from different angles. Both the nations
were relating to the world in its new moorings about
peace, security and prosperity. Both were one with the
world in their concerns for the future of mankind or so
it was supposed. Yet one came out as the leader of the
men and women, a statesman of the mankind, speaking of
the future where the whole world was one thorough concern
for the protection and advance of the society of human
beings and the other was either explaining away its
derelictions or pleading for a chance.
India and Pakistan were
never so clearly distinguished as in that hall where all
countries are theoretically equal, with equal weight and
voice. A voice that does not matter, the cynics may say,
but then the cynics are never aware of the impact their
own cynicism has. Every word has a weightage that matters
in the long term reckoning of things; how so
ineffectual a word or sound may- appear, it
does matter in the ultimate counting. The world that
apparently listens only to power and force does have an
ear for the voice of sanity, voice of reason, voice of
statesmansque wisdom. Over these past several decades
India, indeed, has gained a praiseworthy stature through
her ceaseless and, by and large, principled stands on the
issues local, regional or international. That reputation
counts. It counts more because sooner or later the
warnings of India have come true; her beliefs have been
upheld by the court of time, her stands have been
vindicated by the events of the world. Vajpayees
warnings from the same UN podium last year are seen today
as prophetic words, for ignoring which the world had to
pay a huge price.
In fact, the world would
at some time have to assess how much it has lost in terms
of peace and prosperity by ignoring Indian stands on
issues. It in any case, it is in no shape to ignore the
words India utters when addressing the problems before
the world. That is because the intent is never to lead
the world astray but to guide it to the truth. The words
are true and real and they stem from the deep ethos of
humane concerns. This was so clearly brought out in the
address of the Prime Minister. The world must recognize
the most imminent threat that looms at it today, see it
dispassionately, thoroughly, fully. And fight it, for
there is no other way. The world has a duty to protect
the civilization upon it. It has also a duty to usher in
peace. It cannot leave the fight halfway for the world
can't be safe until terrorism is banned out for good.
Else, there would be no peace, here, there or anywhere.
As the PM said in his opening remarks, neither distance
nor power is any protection against this menace. And
then, the world cannot ignore the aspect of prosperity.
The world has a fight on its hands, but it has also an
obligation to see that the humanity, it is going out to
protect, lives in peaceful prosperity. None save India
could deliver this open message and Vajpayee has shown it
with a finesse all his own.
Sounded Musharraf
If Vajpayees
statesmanship resounded over the vistas of the United
Nations of the world, he was also able to get the
Pakistan president suitable re- sounded, for his
commitment to the world war against the menace
threatening the world. Whatever certificates the general
may collect from the US state departments, it is hard for
him to clear his and his nations complicity in the
scourge of terrorism. The association between the two has
deepened to a level that whenever anybody opens his or
her mouth to castigate the evil stalking world, Pak
authorities are obliged to stand up and say that they are
as much against it as others. Else, the speaker, if he or
she happens to be beholden to that nation for this or
that reason, adds the clarification. For a nation it is a
great burden to live with. Of course, Pakistan has earned
every bit of her notoriety there; she has worked
ceaselessly for it, pledged her resource and even
nationhood for this evil cause. She must now
bear the burden of its curse. That was clear as Musharraf
moved from country to country explaining out, clarifying
and defending Pakistan.
There is nothing edifying
for a nation in that. But then that nation has never been
a great claimant for many values the human society
cherishes. Even her founding principle of religion has
now been rejected as a valid basis for nationhood. The
world at UN meet reiterated that perception in emphatic
terms. That is one more gain for India though it may not
be exactly called a loss for Pakistan; the
day that nation comes to recognize its folly here, she
would be a net gainer. And the world, particularly this
part of the world, would be a more peaceful place to live
in. Then, probably, all the aids Musharraf has been
gathering all around the world would be of use to them as
well as the donors. For that Musharraf has to have more
of his country with him, more of the people converted to
his newfound religion of anti- terrorism and
be more true to this new creed of his. All along his
route to UN, Musharraf was sounded on this particular
aspect too. He has been told in no uncertain terms that
would determine the future of this country. India can
only hope that the lessons have been learnt.
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NC,
Hurriyat should lead KPs from front
By Pushp
Saraf
I would
speak to you as one member of a family
talks to its other members. Therefore, I
would be talking on the basis of my
personal experiences about communal and
regional feelings in our state. I was
barely 16 when as an
apprentice-journalist under my esteemed
father, Mr Om Prakash Saraf, I had
accompanied the late Sheikh Abdullah
during his month-long public-contact
exercise in the Kashmir Valley following
his release from a jail in Ooty. It was
in the mid-60s. For the first time,
I had come in contact with a public
figure who was so liked by the people
that they sang hymns eulogising him. The
Sheikhs constant companion at that
time was Mirza Afzal Beg. Every day I
would be picked up in a taxi from our
Residency Road flat in Srinagar for
joining the Sheikhs entourage which
visited the far-off corners of the
Valley. For the first time also, I was
exposed to the extreme poverty and
illiteracy of our people. It was
apalling. Invariably in the public
meetings, I would come across a spectacle
which, at that particular juncture, would
both amuse and disturb me. Mirza Afzal
Beg would, during the course of his
speech in Kashmiri, switch over to
talking in English and then turn towards
the dias: "Let me tell Dogra rulers
that they should not think that they have
bought our honour for Rs 75 lakhs."
The reference to the fact that the late
Maharaja Gulab Singh, the founder of the
Dogra dynasty, had been given control of
Kashmir against a cash payment was
certainly out of context at that
juncture. But I needed much more exposure
to the states politics to realise
that the Mirza was neither being amusing
nor simplistic; it was just plain
mischief he would deliberately indulge in
to instil fear in the minds of an average
Kashmiri about Jammu Dogras.The Mirza
switched over to speaking in English more
for effect than for anything else. I am
sure that poor and illiterate villagers
could not follow a word. Around the same
time, there was police firing at the
Amirakadal bridge. One boy, Dalip Kumar
Nehru, was killed. As students of S.P.
College, we felt disturbed. Sixteen of us
joined hands and decided to visit
Nehrus family for offering
condolences. We formed a peace committee.
The moment we gathered in the college
compound to head for Nehrus house,
there were boos and jeers from some
corners. We went ahead, nevertheless, and
finished our self-imposed assignment. The
majority of the members of the Peace
Committee were our Muslim student
colleagues and the vested interests which
were active even at that time did not
apparently like this. On the other hand,
in Jammu, leaders of the erstwhile Jan
Sangh would raise fears of a Kashmiri
domination. What insinuations they had
made following the death of Shyama Prasad
Mookerhee in a Srinagar jail is only
recent history. They helped sharpen the
regional divide than building a united
and strong Jammu and Kashmir. Gradually
it was evident to me that the vested
interests in both the regions would go to
any extent to whip up regional and
religious tensions for creating their
respective vote citedals. The instances
quoted above by me underline this grim
reality. That within the Valley, too,
there was an attempt to create a wedge
between the Muslim and Kashmiri pandit
students is clear from the experience I
have narrated in the case of Dalip Kumar
Nehrus death. Given this
background, I was delighted when,
ignoring their past record against each
other, both the Bharatiya Janata Party
and the National Conference joined hands
to share power at the Centre. I felt that
in the hopeless milieu that we face today
there is finally a joint forum which
shall broadly be representative of our
ethnic and regional diversities.
Unfortunately, all hopes have been
belied. Both are back at their original
games, to say the least. We have reasons
to marvel at the regional, geographical
and religion diversity of our State. It
is a wonderful experience to have grown
up in a truly secular atmosphere.
Whatever may have been politics in the
past, the Muslim majority in the State
has behaved very well although its
leadership has been found wanting at many
levels, particularly after 1990. We know
it only too well that some minority
leaders of the Valley were actually for
the integration of the State with
Pakistan in the critical period of 1947
even as the Muslim majority was inclined
towards India. But developments over the
years have caused apprehensions among the
minorities. It is only too well that
Jammu region has become a major centre of
inhabiting migrants from different parts
of the undivided State. The migrants from
Mirpur have been settled down in Jammu
region. And although people of
Muzaffarabad have affinity to the Valley,
they have also been accommodated in
Jammu. And, now the people from Kashmir
both migrants and those looking
for peaceful environment are
finding shelter in Jammu. Jammu region,
therefore, has become a true reflection
of the undivided State, a sort of a
mini-India. However, it is painful to
recall that despite a Parliamentary
Committee recommending one-time monetary
compensation for the migrants from the
occupied territory, nothing has been done
so far. Can there be something more
regrettable? Happily, however, Jammu
remains a fine example of communal
harmony. There have been grave
provocations like bomb blasts outside
Raghunath Temple and Khatiqan Talab
masjid; people have seen through the
mischief and refused to buy the communal
bait. It is a good development.
Lets hope it lasts because the
continuing massacres of innocent persons
in Doda district do not augur well. There
has been some migration of Hindus from
Doda district to safer places in Udhampur
and Jammu. I find it quite intriguing
that the ordinary residents of Surankote
in Poonch district should fall prey to
militants. Surankote is not very far from
the Line of Control and is well protected
by the hills. Why does it remain
vulnerable is not clear to me. There is
no evidence to suggest either that the
Muslim majority in the region has turned
hostile towards the minority community.
In fact, the Muslims of the entire
Poonch-Rajouri district the
majority of them Gujjars and Rajputs
are the members of one nationalist
political party or the other. The
situation in Surankote deserves a deeper
study. What had happened in the Kashmir
Valley is the most shameful chapter of
our recent history. The forced exodus of
the Kashmiri pandit community from the
Valley is an indicator of a determined
bid to change the secular profile of
Kashmir. It is disgusting that our
political leadership sheds copious tears
in the name of paving the way for their
return but does precious little to
achieve the objective. I am convinced
that the Kashmiri pandits would not
return to the Valley till the leadership
of the National Conference or the
Hurriyat Conference leads them from the
front. Merely offering baits of jobs
would not have the desired effect. The
social and cultural shock that the
community is undergoing can be seen from
their helpless existence in the camps in
Jammu and Udhampur. Monetary compensation
can hardly be any substitute for a
dignified existence. In any case, the
Valley is incomplete without them and
their traditions so typical of the place.
Their return to the Valley will be a test
of Indian secularism also. For the time
being, it seems we are in for more
trauma. The Sikh minority is facing the
same plight which the Kashmiri pandits
had in 1990. Fortunately, the local
majority is sympathetic towards them as I
myself saw recently while being stranded
during an armed conflict between the
security forces and militants in villages
on way back from Gulmarg. My hosts
an old Sikh friend and his family
and all of us were offered hospitality by
the villagers as we had to per force stop
our car till the gun battle was over. All
this, however, does not completely dispel
the fears that one spray of bullets from
some mischievous corner could
dramatically alter the scenario for the
worse. In the Ladakh region, we have the
the States smallest minority
that of the Buddhists which has a
national treasure in the form of Hemis
gompa and other monasteris. However, they
constitute a formidable majority in Leh
district. They had at one time resorted
to an ill-conceived social and economic
blockade of the Muslim minority in their
district in protest against the forced
conversion of the Buddhist women but soon
they realised their mistake and lifted
the ban. They thus showed how a majority
should behave against a minority in a
particular region. Our politicians would
do well to address themselves to the
genuine aspirations of the Buddhists; in
any case they should resist the
temptation of politically dividing them
because that would be counter-productive
in a highly sensitive border region. In
fact, the conduct of the Buddhist
majority should be emulated by the
religious majorities in the other two
regions. Because the Buddhists are
skeptical of how the leadership in
Srinagar would behave towards them, they
are seeking a union territory status. The
demand has also risen for a separate
state of Jammu and for a homeland for the
Kashmiri pandits in the Valley itself.
The Ladakh Buddhist Association, Panun
Kashmir and the Joint Jammu
Students Federation had also come
together ironically for the purpose of
seeking the trifurcation of the State.
Personally I am against the trifurcation
of the State. Ethnic and religious
divisons are an anathema to a strong and
secular polity. We have experience of the
North-East before us where such divisions
have failed to bring peace. I am against
those who believe that only the Sunni
Muslim majority in the State should be
held responsible for the present turmoil
in the State because, according to this
view, all other Muslim sects and
communities Shias, Ahmediyas,
Gujjars and Rajputs, among others
look in a direction different from the
Sunnis. We should never forget that if
Jammu and Kashmir acceded to India it was
because that it had, apart from the
approval of Maharaja Hari Singh, the
popular sanction of the Sunni majority.
And, the majority in our State has for
long been subjugated first by an
autocratic regime and then by a strange
dispensation in which its share in
government jobs was by and large
restricted to lowly posts. I think, there
is still a chance for us to prevail upon
the angry section of the majority
community to see reason and behave in
accordance with the noble percept of
Kashmiriyat and the principle of
secularism on the basis of which the
State acceded to India. We as the
minorities of the State are the best
placed to do so; no other body of persons
in the country can perform this role.
And, among us, the Kashmiri pandit
community is the best placed to execute
this task. For, apart from sharing a
common past, it has a linguistic affinity
with the majority community. We should
make this attempt with all honesty and
with full confidence that no body can
take our land away. We are at a critical
juncture of history. The Supreme Court,
which is presently presided over by a son
of our soil (this paper was read just
before Justice Adarsh Anand retired as
the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court),
has made clear that the Constitution of
the country is not subjected even to what
is sought to be defined as the
"popular will of the people".
There are certain democratic norms
constituting basic features of the
Constitution which all of us have to
adhere, whatever agenda and ambitions any
section of society may have. Our efforts
for a broader unity would find support
even across the Line of Control. During
my visit to the occupied territory last
year, I was moved by the desire expressed
by many for the unity of the State in the
manner in which it had existed before
1947. The soil of Jammu and Kashmir
belongs to all of us. Under our
Constitutional dispensation, nowhere can
the minorities be brushed aside, least of
all in Jammu and Kashmir. The only
precaution we need to take is to ensure
that in our sufferings we do not let our
own concerns and priorities blur our
vision.(ends) *This paper was read at a
seminar at India International Centre,
New Delhi, organised by All-India
Kashmiri Samaj. popular Samaj.
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Strengthening
Indo-German bilateral relations
By I. P.
Singh
German
Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's long
scheduled trip to India came in the midst
of the war in Afghanistan, which served
to partially overshadow the bilateral
aspect of the visit. The visit to India
was meant to give a fillip to Indo-German
economic relations that have not shown
any striking movement in the past couple
of years, even though they have
maintained a steady course.
Chancellor
Schroeder's travel plans to India and
China got extended to a stopover in
Islamabad and a short visit to Moscow,
where the discussions mainly focused on
the war against terrorism. Addressing a
joint press conference in Delhi, Mr.
Schroeder and Prime Minister Vajpayee
agreed on the need for a broadbased
regime in Afghanistan. A broadbased
regime required representatives of the
ethnic and religious minorities in the
country with a prominent role for the UN
in facilitating the post-Taliban
transition. The two leaders agreed that a
greater urgency was required for the post
-war reconstruction of Afghanistan. India
is also in favour of expanding the
present consultative group known as the
Six plus Two process to include the G-5
and the countries in the neighbourhood.
The Six plus Two group consists of the
US, Russia, China, Iran, Pakistan,
Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
The
discussion on Afghanistan was of
considerable significance since Germany,
unlike the US and other European
countries, has retained a modicum of
interest in Afghanistan even after the
Soviet withdrawal from the war torn
country. A German school continued to be
in operation in Kabul till the American
coalition's war on terrorism began.
The German
leader caused a bit of heartburn in New
Delhi with his reference to the Agra
summit. Mr. Schroeder, who had just
completed a short visit to Islamabad,
reiterated the need for a dialogue
between India and Pakistan. At his press
conference in New Delhi, the German
Chancellor called for resumption of the
Agra process between the two countries.
The Indian
side has got quite used to the string of
foreign travellers passing through Delhi
who have advocated the need for a
bilateral dialogue between India and
Pakistan. But the mention of the Agra
summit, which was an unmitigated media
disaster for the Indian side, where the
two delegations were not able to arrive
at a joint statement, is probably not the
best example to choose for the India
Government which swears by the Lahore
process.
However,
Federal Interior Minister, Mr. Otto
Schilly, who was part of the German
delegation, made amends in his
discussions the ongoing campaign against
terrorism in his meetings in Delhi.
"Both countries recognise that the
situation in Jammu and Kashmir cannot be
left out in the international fight
against terrorism," he said after a
meeting with his counterpart, the Home
Minister, Mr. L. K. Advani. The sides
agreed that new form of terrorism has an
international network of logistic links
and operative structures at its disposal.
It was not just directed at the US but at
the shared values and convictions of all
freedom loving people all over the world.
It was decided that an Indian team of
officials would go to Germany shortly to
exchange information and take a look at
the systems in place in Germany of
tackling terrorism.
The ease
with which terrorists have been able to
move about through international borders
and transfer funds across the world has
been a surprise to many. The German
authorities in particular have been
forced to undertake a quick review of
their system and procedures to prevent
the illegal use of the country's legal
systems. The dimensions of the terrorist
network through Germany and Europe had
come to light last December when German
police had arrested a group of four Arab
men who were said to be aligned with a
group planning a terrorist attack
somewhere in France during Christmas.
German authorities received a sharp knock
with the revelations of the links of the
Al Qaida terrorists in Hamburng.
Addressing
a meeting of trade and industry organsied
by CII and FICCI in Delhi, Mr. Schroeder
said that the world community should come
together to fight terrorism. It was
everyone's responsibility to ensure that
terrorism does not prevail over economic
development and cooperations, he added.
The German Chancellor was accompanied by
a business delegation that included
representatives of leading German
companies. Indian and German economic
cooperation depends largely on small and
medium sized enterprises in the two
countries, instead of large joint
ventures. Both sides have emphsised that
small and medium sized companies rely
particularly on a favourable economic
environment as well as reliable and clear
framework conditions and structures. As
Mr. Schroeder said, big companies were
able to overcome red tape and
infrastructure bottlenecks, the small and
medium sized companies found it difficult
to operate. However, there is a
favourable investment climate in both
countries to be exploited by investors
from both countries. Closer
state-to-state relations between the
Indian States and the German provinces
would also help in increasing economic
ties.
Indian
exports to Germany have been growing
every year with Germany rating as India's
fifth largest trading partner. Bilateral
trade between India and Germany increased
by 10 per cent in the first six months of
the current year over the same period
last year. It is expected that the
two-way trade would be about US $5
billion for the year 2001. But the German
side believes there is a large untapped
potential in their economic ties with
India, since India counts for merely one
per cent of German exports as well as
investment.
Four
agreements involving the sum of Rs. 670
crore German assistance was signed during
the visit. The projects include a 140 mw
integrated combined cycle solar power
project in Jodhpur, import of fertiliser
(muriate of potash), National Pulse Polio
Programme and a rural water supply,
sanitation and community participation
project in Rajasthan.
Bangalore
and its IT industry has been of
particular interest for the German side.
Like his Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer
in his visit earlier this year, Mr.
Schroeder was accompanied by a large
business delegation that also visited
Bangalore. The German proposal to hire
Indian IT experts to work in German has
not really got off the ground. The
proposal initially got caught in local
German politics on an anti-immigration
wave. Immigration is a sensitive subject
in Germany with its large immigrant
Turkish population brought in for the
post-war reconstruction of the country.
Later the interest among IT professionals
and workers in India flagged because of
the language problems and conditions such
as spouses not being granted work permits
in Germany. The German Government has
sought to rework the proposal in order to
attract a better response from foreign
workers in the IT sector.
Reflecting
on the long gap between an exchange of
high level visits between Germany and
India, the two sides agreed during their
discussions to hold annual summit
meetings to maintain regular contact at
the highest level. A regular political
interaction would help to add greater
momentum to the bilateral relations
between India and Germany. INAV
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Preventing
disasters
By Chandramohan Pathak
The Smithsonian
Institute has issued a warning that the North
India may be hit by a severe earthquake anytime
before 2005. Earlier, the Institute had predicted
a disaster for the Deccan plateau which took
place in the form of the Latur catastrophe. The
recent major tragedy - the earthquake which hit
Gujarat is sure proof of inadequacy of present
mechanisms, though for different reasons. The
earthquake in Kobe was also predicted the
Institute, so also last year's avalanche in
J&K.
Kobe tremors had a
devastating impact. The quake in Japan was not
predicted by any seismologist, only a stray
soothsayer. In Kashmir, the warnings of the
Beacons Project of the Border Roads Organsitation
went unheeded. And, according to sources, so did
those from the Ministry of Defence's Snow and
Avalanche Studies Establishment (SASE) in Manali.
In Both cases, Indian planning authorities can
derive important lessons.
However, despite
these tragedies, it is certain that disaster
management in the Indian context provides scope
for optimism. Cyclones and droughts, which had so
ravaged country in the past, have not been tamed,
but can now be managed. Cyclone prediction,
courtesy over a dozen advanced meteorological
radars along the coastline, have come in handy.
As the Indian Meteorological Department's
Director (hydrology), Dr. D. S. Upadhyaya, says,
"We can now predict cyclones with almost 100
per cent accuracy. So while we don't claim such
disturbances don't have any negative affect, it
is clear the toll can be reduced to a
minimum."
Similarly,
satellite imagery and supercomputer-analysed data
have also facilitated drought prediction in
longrange terms of two to three months. But, of
course, because an actual drought has not hit the
country since 1987, these applications have not
been tested. However, earthquake predication
remains a difficult task. As the head of the
Environmental Sciences Department in Jawaharlal
Nehru University, Prof. C. K. Varshney, says,
"Earthquakes cannot be predicted, even when
the best of information is available."
Keeping in mind
the awesome past quakes in Uttarkashi, Latur and
Gujarat the possibility of another major tremor
shaking the central Himalayan region, as
prophesised by Dr. Roger Bilham of the University
of Colorado (US), quack studies have become the
epicentre of disaster control programmes.
Importantly, projects are moving away from the
often futile exercise of predicting quakes to
consolidating a database for establishing norms
with which to reduce damage.
Prominent among
these programmes is the one sponsored by the
Department of Science and Technology (DST) - a
World Bank-assisted, $7.5 million effort at
monitoring the landmass and preparing updated
seismological maps. With the IMD, the Indian
institute of Technology (Delhi), the National
Remote Sensing Agency and the Ministries of Urban
Development and Agriculture, among others,
closely involved in the project, the emphasis is
on reducing casualties. DST's joint adviser, Dr.
R. K. Midha. Says, "There is no question of
prevention, we are stressing on monitoring,
warning and minimsing damage." Adds IMD's
Deputy Director General (seismology), Dr. V. P.
Kamble : "This is an integrated programme
based on hazard analysis."
While physical
modelling of seismicity prone areas is virtually
impossible because of the fluctuating time, space
and magnitude variables, theoretical modelling is
being concentrated upon along with up or
downgradation of seismic zones. The efforts
include observational precursors, parametric
modelling, chaos analysis and fractal analysis,
based on the hard data which is being collected.
But the task will
remain monumental. Explains Dr. Kamble:
"Environmental sensing of faults is very
difficult because direct measurement cannot be
done and because stress accumulates over a wide
area over a time period of over a million years.
The per day increment leading to the actual quake
cannot be measured." In fact, the Germans
attempted to study a fault at close range by
drilling a hole, reaching the boundary of the
plate and implanting video cameras to capture
exact motions. But their efforts were
unsuccessful. The Chinese, too, have discarded
predictions as a useful tool and the Japanese now
face a similar predicament.
But the Indian
effort, seismologists hope, will be properly
directed. While the present instrumentation does
not allow detection of tremors measuring below
five on the Richter scale with advanced
equipment, it is asserted that those of only
three will be recognised and will be significant
pointers towards possibly larger disorders. Dr.
Kamble says, "We are trying to identify
faults, their locations. We hope to have a large
database of parameters, locations and
epicentres."
Most importantly,
it must be remembered that in Kobe the modern
multistorey buildings, which were considered
quake proof, did prove their efficacy as
fatalities occurred essentially in areas crowded
with older constructions. The DST is already
working along these lines : Of integrating
quakereistance into planning activity. The
project is expected to finally lead to an
improvement of the present construction codes.
And densely-crowded metropolitan centres are also
being focused upon. For a start, the
micro-zonation of New Delhi has been undertaken.
Similar studies will be gradually extended to
other cities.
As for the Kashmir
tragedy, it was largely avoidable because the
SASE is supposed to be a premier institution with
a mandate to prevent calamities of the sort which
occurred. However, the Indian Army has acquired
some expertise in dealing with such incidents and
has reportedly brought its reaction time down to
a very efficient level.
And there is hope
for the future. A series of long-term precautions
are being deliberated upon, including structural
controls at sites by way of constructing
diversion walls for avalanches, galleries (roofs)
on highways, or mounts (a network of earthen
barriers to retard the force of avalanches and
landslides). Artificial triggering of avalanches
when the build-up reaches dangerous levels has
also been implemented, with some success.
But while for
casts and warnings are regularly provided and
often announced on television and radio,
enforcing preventive measures remains a craft the
authorities must perfect. In India nature itself
is cruel. As Dr. Upadhyaya says, "Here the
slopes of mountains are 30 to 40 degrees, which
helps snow deposits build up." But obviously
prevention of similar tragedies is possible and
experts also call for utilisation of VHF
satellite communications and cordless telephones
to facilitate the control process.
Of special
relevance is the Disaster Preparedness Programme,
which was a district level network activated
after the Latur catastrophe. It is now necessary
for the authorities to ensure the programme
become truly effective. Ultimately, however, it
is apparent that India no longer remains as much
at the mercy of the elements as it was in the
past. INAV
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