EDITORIAL

Resounding Vajpayee

Strange though it may look but it is a fact that where the lion hunts, the fox visits too; the feast that lion tastes, the fox also comes to partake.Yet the two are separated in a way, the sociologists may find difficult to distinguish, but the laymen never miss. Though the analogy may not be exactly fitted to the actions and behaviors of the India and Pakistan, their attitudes and gains, it illustrates that there are things where a subtle shade .....more

Sounded Musharraf

If Vajpayee’s statesmanship resounded over the vistas of the United Nations of the world, he was also able to get the Pakistan president suitable re- sounded, for his commitment to the world war against the menace threatening the world. Whatever certificates the general may collect from the US state departments, it is hard for him to clear his and his ....... .more

NC, Hurriyat should
lead KPs from front

By Pushp Saraf
I would speak to you as one member of a family talks to its other members. Therefore, I would be talking on the basis of my personal experiences about communal and regional feelings in our state. I was barely 16 when ...
more

Strengthening Indo-German bilateral relations

By I. P. Singh
German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's long scheduled trip to India came in the midst of the war in Afghanistan, which served to partially overshadow the bilateral aspect of the visit. The visit to India was meant to give a fillip to .. .
more

Preventing disasters

By Chandramohan Pathak
The Smithsonian Institute has issued a warning that the North India may be hit by a severe earthquake anytime before 2005. Earlier, the Institute had predicted a disaster for the Deccan plateau which took place in the form of ...
.more

EDITORIAL

Resounding Vajpayee

Strange though it may look but it is a fact that where the lion hunts, the fox visits too; the feast that lion tastes, the fox also comes to partake.Yet the two are separated in a way, the sociologists may find difficult to distinguish, but the laymen never miss. Though the analogy may not be exactly fitted to the actions and behaviors of the India and Pakistan, their attitudes and gains, it illustrates that there are things where a subtle shade makes a huge difference to the whole perspective. Prime Minister Vajpayee and Pakistan’s Musharraf both went to the UN conference and addressed the general assembly on the same American day. They were worried over the same problem though from different angles. Both the nations were relating to the world in its new moorings about peace, security and prosperity. Both were one with the world in their concerns for the future of mankind or so it was supposed. Yet one came out as the leader of the men and women, a statesman of the mankind, speaking of the future where the whole world was one thorough concern for the protection and advance of the society of human beings and the other was either explaining away its derelictions or pleading for a chance.

India and Pakistan were never so clearly distinguished as in that hall where all countries are theoretically equal, with equal weight and voice. A voice that does not matter, the cynics may say, but then the cynics are never aware of the impact their own cynicism has. Every word has a weightage that matters in the long term reckoning of things; how so ‘ineffectual’ a word or sound may- appear, it does matter in the ultimate counting. The world that apparently listens only to power and force does have an ear for the voice of sanity, voice of reason, voice of statesmansque wisdom. Over these past several decades India, indeed, has gained a praiseworthy stature through her ceaseless and, by and large, principled stands on the issues local, regional or international. That reputation counts. It counts more because sooner or later the warnings of India have come true; her beliefs have been upheld by the court of time, her stands have been vindicated by the events of the world. Vajpayee’s warnings from the same UN podium last year are seen today as prophetic words, for ignoring which the world had to pay a huge price.

In fact, the world would at some time have to assess how much it has lost in terms of peace and prosperity by ignoring Indian stands on issues. It in any case, it is in no shape to ignore the words India utters when addressing the problems before the world. That is because the intent is never to lead the world astray but to guide it to the truth. The words are true and real and they stem from the deep ethos of humane concerns. This was so clearly brought out in the address of the Prime Minister. The world must recognize the most imminent threat that looms at it today, see it dispassionately, thoroughly, fully. And fight it, for there is no other way. The world has a duty to protect the civilization upon it. It has also a duty to usher in peace. It cannot leave the fight halfway for the world can't be safe until terrorism is banned out for good. Else, there would be no peace, here, there or anywhere. As the PM said in his opening remarks, neither distance nor power is any protection against this menace. And then, the world cannot ignore the aspect of prosperity. The world has a fight on its hands, but it has also an obligation to see that the humanity, it is going out to protect, lives in peaceful prosperity. None save India could deliver this open message and Vajpayee has shown it with a finesse all his own.

Sounded Musharraf

If Vajpayee’s statesmanship resounded over the vistas of the United Nations of the world, he was also able to get the Pakistan president suitable re- sounded, for his commitment to the world war against the menace threatening the world. Whatever certificates the general may collect from the US state departments, it is hard for him to clear his and his nation’s complicity in the scourge of terrorism. The association between the two has deepened to a level that whenever anybody opens his or her mouth to castigate the evil stalking world, Pak authorities are obliged to stand up and say that they are as much against it as others. Else, the speaker, if he or she happens to be beholden to that nation for this or that reason, adds the clarification. For a nation it is a great burden to live with. Of course, Pakistan has earned every bit of her notoriety there; she has worked ceaselessly for it, pledged her resource and even nationhood for this evil ‘cause’. She must now bear the burden of its curse. That was clear as Musharraf moved from country to country explaining out, clarifying and defending Pakistan.

There is nothing edifying for a nation in that. But then that nation has never been a great claimant for many values the human society cherishes. Even her founding principle of religion has now been rejected as a valid basis for nationhood. The world at UN meet reiterated that perception in emphatic terms. That is one more gain for India though it may not be exactly called ‘a loss’ for Pakistan; the day that nation comes to recognize its folly here, she would be a net gainer. And the world, particularly this part of the world, would be a more peaceful place to live in. Then, probably, all the aids Musharraf has been gathering all around the world would be of use to them as well as the donors. For that Musharraf has to have more of his country with him, more of the people converted to his newfound ‘religion of anti- terrorism’ and be more true to this new creed of his. All along his route to UN, Musharraf was sounded on this particular aspect too. He has been told in no uncertain terms that would determine the future of this country. India can only hope that the lessons have been learnt.

NC, Hurriyat should lead KPs from front

By Pushp Saraf

I would speak to you as one member of a family talks to its other members. Therefore, I would be talking on the basis of my personal experiences about communal and regional feelings in our state. I was barely 16 when as an apprentice-journalist under my esteemed father, Mr Om Prakash Saraf, I had accompanied the late Sheikh Abdullah during his month-long public-contact exercise in the Kashmir Valley following his release from a jail in Ooty. It was in the mid-60’s. For the first time, I had come in contact with a public figure who was so liked by the people that they sang hymns eulogising him. The Sheikh’s constant companion at that time was Mirza Afzal Beg. Every day I would be picked up in a taxi from our Residency Road flat in Srinagar for joining the Sheikh’s entourage which visited the far-off corners of the Valley. For the first time also, I was exposed to the extreme poverty and illiteracy of our people. It was apalling. Invariably in the public meetings, I would come across a spectacle which, at that particular juncture, would both amuse and disturb me. Mirza Afzal Beg would, during the course of his speech in Kashmiri, switch over to talking in English and then turn towards the dias: "Let me tell Dogra rulers that they should not think that they have bought our honour for Rs 75 lakhs." The reference to the fact that the late Maharaja Gulab Singh, the founder of the Dogra dynasty, had been given control of Kashmir against a cash payment was certainly out of context at that juncture. But I needed much more exposure to the state’s politics to realise that the Mirza was neither being amusing nor simplistic; it was just plain mischief he would deliberately indulge in to instil fear in the minds of an average Kashmiri about Jammu Dogras.The Mirza switched over to speaking in English more for effect than for anything else. I am sure that poor and illiterate villagers could not follow a word. Around the same time, there was police firing at the Amirakadal bridge. One boy, Dalip Kumar Nehru, was killed. As students of S.P. College, we felt disturbed. Sixteen of us joined hands and decided to visit Nehru’s family for offering condolences. We formed a peace committee. The moment we gathered in the college compound to head for Nehru’s house, there were boos and jeers from some corners. We went ahead, nevertheless, and finished our self-imposed assignment. The majority of the members of the Peace Committee were our Muslim student colleagues and the vested interests which were active even at that time did not apparently like this. On the other hand, in Jammu, leaders of the erstwhile Jan Sangh would raise fears of a Kashmiri domination. What insinuations they had made following the death of Shyama Prasad Mookerhee in a Srinagar jail is only recent history. They helped sharpen the regional divide than building a united and strong Jammu and Kashmir. Gradually it was evident to me that the vested interests in both the regions would go to any extent to whip up regional and religious tensions for creating their respective vote citedals. The instances quoted above by me underline this grim reality. That within the Valley, too, there was an attempt to create a wedge between the Muslim and Kashmiri pandit students is clear from the experience I have narrated in the case of Dalip Kumar Nehru’s death. Given this background, I was delighted when, ignoring their past record against each other, both the Bharatiya Janata Party and the National Conference joined hands to share power at the Centre. I felt that in the hopeless milieu that we face today there is finally a joint forum which shall broadly be representative of our ethnic and regional diversities. Unfortunately, all hopes have been belied. Both are back at their original games, to say the least. We have reasons to marvel at the regional, geographical and religion diversity of our State. It is a wonderful experience to have grown up in a truly secular atmosphere. Whatever may have been politics in the past, the Muslim majority in the State has behaved very well although its leadership has been found wanting at many levels, particularly after 1990. We know it only too well that some minority leaders of the Valley were actually for the integration of the State with Pakistan in the critical period of 1947 even as the Muslim majority was inclined towards India. But developments over the years have caused apprehensions among the minorities. It is only too well that Jammu region has become a major centre of inhabiting migrants from different parts of the undivided State. The migrants from Mirpur have been settled down in Jammu region. And although people of Muzaffarabad have affinity to the Valley, they have also been accommodated in Jammu. And, now the people from Kashmir — both migrants and those looking for peaceful environment — are finding shelter in Jammu. Jammu region, therefore, has become a true reflection of the undivided State, a sort of a mini-India. However, it is painful to recall that despite a Parliamentary Committee recommending one-time monetary compensation for the migrants from the occupied territory, nothing has been done so far. Can there be something more regrettable? Happily, however, Jammu remains a fine example of communal harmony. There have been grave provocations like bomb blasts outside Raghunath Temple and Khatiqan Talab masjid; people have seen through the mischief and refused to buy the communal bait. It is a good development. Let’s hope it lasts because the continuing massacres of innocent persons in Doda district do not augur well. There has been some migration of Hindus from Doda district to safer places in Udhampur and Jammu. I find it quite intriguing that the ordinary residents of Surankote in Poonch district should fall prey to militants. Surankote is not very far from the Line of Control and is well protected by the hills. Why does it remain vulnerable is not clear to me. There is no evidence to suggest either that the Muslim majority in the region has turned hostile towards the minority community. In fact, the Muslims of the entire Poonch-Rajouri district — the majority of them Gujjars and Rajputs — are the members of one nationalist political party or the other. The situation in Surankote deserves a deeper study. What had happened in the Kashmir Valley is the most shameful chapter of our recent history. The forced exodus of the Kashmiri pandit community from the Valley is an indicator of a determined bid to change the secular profile of Kashmir. It is disgusting that our political leadership sheds copious tears in the name of paving the way for their return but does precious little to achieve the objective. I am convinced that the Kashmiri pandits would not return to the Valley till the leadership of the National Conference or the Hurriyat Conference leads them from the front. Merely offering baits of jobs would not have the desired effect. The social and cultural shock that the community is undergoing can be seen from their helpless existence in the camps in Jammu and Udhampur. Monetary compensation can hardly be any substitute for a dignified existence. In any case, the Valley is incomplete without them and their traditions so typical of the place. Their return to the Valley will be a test of Indian secularism also. For the time being, it seems we are in for more trauma. The Sikh minority is facing the same plight which the Kashmiri pandits had in 1990. Fortunately, the local majority is sympathetic towards them as I myself saw recently while being stranded during an armed conflict between the security forces and militants in villages on way back from Gulmarg. My hosts — an old Sikh friend and his family — and all of us were offered hospitality by the villagers as we had to per force stop our car till the gun battle was over. All this, however, does not completely dispel the fears that one spray of bullets from some mischievous corner could dramatically alter the scenario for the worse. In the Ladakh region, we have the the State’s smallest minority — that of the Buddhists — which has a national treasure in the form of Hemis gompa and other monasteris. However, they constitute a formidable majority in Leh district. They had at one time resorted to an ill-conceived social and economic blockade of the Muslim minority in their district in protest against the forced conversion of the Buddhist women but soon they realised their mistake and lifted the ban. They thus showed how a majority should behave against a minority in a particular region. Our politicians would do well to address themselves to the genuine aspirations of the Buddhists; in any case they should resist the temptation of politically dividing them because that would be counter-productive in a highly sensitive border region. In fact, the conduct of the Buddhist majority should be emulated by the religious majorities in the other two regions. Because the Buddhists are skeptical of how the leadership in Srinagar would behave towards them, they are seeking a union territory status. The demand has also risen for a separate state of Jammu and for a homeland for the Kashmiri pandits in the Valley itself. The Ladakh Buddhist Association, Panun Kashmir and the Joint Jammu Students’ Federation had also come together ironically for the purpose of seeking the trifurcation of the State. Personally I am against the trifurcation of the State. Ethnic and religious divisons are an anathema to a strong and secular polity. We have experience of the North-East before us where such divisions have failed to bring peace. I am against those who believe that only the Sunni Muslim majority in the State should be held responsible for the present turmoil in the State because, according to this view, all other Muslim sects and communities — Shias, Ahmediyas, Gujjars and Rajputs, among others — look in a direction different from the Sunnis. We should never forget that if Jammu and Kashmir acceded to India it was because that it had, apart from the approval of Maharaja Hari Singh, the popular sanction of the Sunni majority. And, the majority in our State has for long been subjugated first by an autocratic regime and then by a strange dispensation in which its share in government jobs was by and large restricted to lowly posts. I think, there is still a chance for us to prevail upon the angry section of the majority community to see reason and behave in accordance with the noble percept of Kashmiriyat and the principle of secularism on the basis of which the State acceded to India. We as the minorities of the State are the best placed to do so; no other body of persons in the country can perform this role. And, among us, the Kashmiri pandit community is the best placed to execute this task. For, apart from sharing a common past, it has a linguistic affinity with the majority community. We should make this attempt with all honesty and with full confidence that no body can take our land away. We are at a critical juncture of history. The Supreme Court, which is presently presided over by a son of our soil (this paper was read just before Justice Adarsh Anand retired as the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court), has made clear that the Constitution of the country is not subjected even to what is sought to be defined as the "popular will of the people". There are certain democratic norms constituting basic features of the Constitution which all of us have to adhere, whatever agenda and ambitions any section of society may have. Our efforts for a broader unity would find support even across the Line of Control. During my visit to the occupied territory last year, I was moved by the desire expressed by many for the unity of the State in the manner in which it had existed before 1947. The soil of Jammu and Kashmir belongs to all of us. Under our Constitutional dispensation, nowhere can the minorities be brushed aside, least of all in Jammu and Kashmir. The only precaution we need to take is to ensure that in our sufferings we do not let our own concerns and priorities blur our vision.(ends) *This paper was read at a seminar at India International Centre, New Delhi, organised by All-India Kashmiri Samaj. popular Samaj.

Strengthening Indo-German bilateral relations

By I. P. Singh

German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's long scheduled trip to India came in the midst of the war in Afghanistan, which served to partially overshadow the bilateral aspect of the visit. The visit to India was meant to give a fillip to Indo-German economic relations that have not shown any striking movement in the past couple of years, even though they have maintained a steady course.

Chancellor Schroeder's travel plans to India and China got extended to a stopover in Islamabad and a short visit to Moscow, where the discussions mainly focused on the war against terrorism. Addressing a joint press conference in Delhi, Mr. Schroeder and Prime Minister Vajpayee agreed on the need for a broadbased regime in Afghanistan. A broadbased regime required representatives of the ethnic and religious minorities in the country with a prominent role for the UN in facilitating the post-Taliban transition. The two leaders agreed that a greater urgency was required for the post -war reconstruction of Afghanistan. India is also in favour of expanding the present consultative group known as the Six plus Two process to include the G-5 and the countries in the neighbourhood. The Six plus Two group consists of the US, Russia, China, Iran, Pakistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

The discussion on Afghanistan was of considerable significance since Germany, unlike the US and other European countries, has retained a modicum of interest in Afghanistan even after the Soviet withdrawal from the war torn country. A German school continued to be in operation in Kabul till the American coalition's war on terrorism began.

The German leader caused a bit of heartburn in New Delhi with his reference to the Agra summit. Mr. Schroeder, who had just completed a short visit to Islamabad, reiterated the need for a dialogue between India and Pakistan. At his press conference in New Delhi, the German Chancellor called for resumption of the Agra process between the two countries.

The Indian side has got quite used to the string of foreign travellers passing through Delhi who have advocated the need for a bilateral dialogue between India and Pakistan. But the mention of the Agra summit, which was an unmitigated media disaster for the Indian side, where the two delegations were not able to arrive at a joint statement, is probably not the best example to choose for the India Government which swears by the Lahore process.

However, Federal Interior Minister, Mr. Otto Schilly, who was part of the German delegation, made amends in his discussions the ongoing campaign against terrorism in his meetings in Delhi. "Both countries recognise that the situation in Jammu and Kashmir cannot be left out in the international fight against terrorism," he said after a meeting with his counterpart, the Home Minister, Mr. L. K. Advani. The sides agreed that new form of terrorism has an international network of logistic links and operative structures at its disposal. It was not just directed at the US but at the shared values and convictions of all freedom loving people all over the world. It was decided that an Indian team of officials would go to Germany shortly to exchange information and take a look at the systems in place in Germany of tackling terrorism.

The ease with which terrorists have been able to move about through international borders and transfer funds across the world has been a surprise to many. The German authorities in particular have been forced to undertake a quick review of their system and procedures to prevent the illegal use of the country's legal systems. The dimensions of the terrorist network through Germany and Europe had come to light last December when German police had arrested a group of four Arab men who were said to be aligned with a group planning a terrorist attack somewhere in France during Christmas. German authorities received a sharp knock with the revelations of the links of the Al Qaida terrorists in Hamburng.

Addressing a meeting of trade and industry organsied by CII and FICCI in Delhi, Mr. Schroeder said that the world community should come together to fight terrorism. It was everyone's responsibility to ensure that terrorism does not prevail over economic development and cooperations, he added. The German Chancellor was accompanied by a business delegation that included representatives of leading German companies. Indian and German economic cooperation depends largely on small and medium sized enterprises in the two countries, instead of large joint ventures. Both sides have emphsised that small and medium sized companies rely particularly on a favourable economic environment as well as reliable and clear framework conditions and structures. As Mr. Schroeder said, big companies were able to overcome red tape and infrastructure bottlenecks, the small and medium sized companies found it difficult to operate. However, there is a favourable investment climate in both countries to be exploited by investors from both countries. Closer state-to-state relations between the Indian States and the German provinces would also help in increasing economic ties.

Indian exports to Germany have been growing every year with Germany rating as India's fifth largest trading partner. Bilateral trade between India and Germany increased by 10 per cent in the first six months of the current year over the same period last year. It is expected that the two-way trade would be about US $5 billion for the year 2001. But the German side believes there is a large untapped potential in their economic ties with India, since India counts for merely one per cent of German exports as well as investment.

Four agreements involving the sum of Rs. 670 crore German assistance was signed during the visit. The projects include a 140 mw integrated combined cycle solar power project in Jodhpur, import of fertiliser (muriate of potash), National Pulse Polio Programme and a rural water supply, sanitation and community participation project in Rajasthan.

Bangalore and its IT industry has been of particular interest for the German side. Like his Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer in his visit earlier this year, Mr. Schroeder was accompanied by a large business delegation that also visited Bangalore. The German proposal to hire Indian IT experts to work in German has not really got off the ground. The proposal initially got caught in local German politics on an anti-immigration wave. Immigration is a sensitive subject in Germany with its large immigrant Turkish population brought in for the post-war reconstruction of the country. Later the interest among IT professionals and workers in India flagged because of the language problems and conditions such as spouses not being granted work permits in Germany. The German Government has sought to rework the proposal in order to attract a better response from foreign workers in the IT sector.

Reflecting on the long gap between an exchange of high level visits between Germany and India, the two sides agreed during their discussions to hold annual summit meetings to maintain regular contact at the highest level. A regular political interaction would help to add greater momentum to the bilateral relations between India and Germany. INAV

Preventing disasters

By Chandramohan Pathak

The Smithsonian Institute has issued a warning that the North India may be hit by a severe earthquake anytime before 2005. Earlier, the Institute had predicted a disaster for the Deccan plateau which took place in the form of the Latur catastrophe. The recent major tragedy - the earthquake which hit Gujarat is sure proof of inadequacy of present mechanisms, though for different reasons. The earthquake in Kobe was also predicted the Institute, so also last year's avalanche in J&K.

Kobe tremors had a devastating impact. The quake in Japan was not predicted by any seismologist, only a stray soothsayer. In Kashmir, the warnings of the Beacons Project of the Border Roads Organsitation went unheeded. And, according to sources, so did those from the Ministry of Defence's Snow and Avalanche Studies Establishment (SASE) in Manali. In Both cases, Indian planning authorities can derive important lessons.

However, despite these tragedies, it is certain that disaster management in the Indian context provides scope for optimism. Cyclones and droughts, which had so ravaged country in the past, have not been tamed, but can now be managed. Cyclone prediction, courtesy over a dozen advanced meteorological radars along the coastline, have come in handy. As the Indian Meteorological Department's Director (hydrology), Dr. D. S. Upadhyaya, says, "We can now predict cyclones with almost 100 per cent accuracy. So while we don't claim such disturbances don't have any negative affect, it is clear the toll can be reduced to a minimum."

Similarly, satellite imagery and supercomputer-analysed data have also facilitated drought prediction in longrange terms of two to three months. But, of course, because an actual drought has not hit the country since 1987, these applications have not been tested. However, earthquake predication remains a difficult task. As the head of the Environmental Sciences Department in Jawaharlal Nehru University, Prof. C. K. Varshney, says, "Earthquakes cannot be predicted, even when the best of information is available."

Keeping in mind the awesome past quakes in Uttarkashi, Latur and Gujarat the possibility of another major tremor shaking the central Himalayan region, as prophesised by Dr. Roger Bilham of the University of Colorado (US), quack studies have become the epicentre of disaster control programmes. Importantly, projects are moving away from the often futile exercise of predicting quakes to consolidating a database for establishing norms with which to reduce damage.

Prominent among these programmes is the one sponsored by the Department of Science and Technology (DST) - a World Bank-assisted, $7.5 million effort at monitoring the landmass and preparing updated seismological maps. With the IMD, the Indian institute of Technology (Delhi), the National Remote Sensing Agency and the Ministries of Urban Development and Agriculture, among others, closely involved in the project, the emphasis is on reducing casualties. DST's joint adviser, Dr. R. K. Midha. Says, "There is no question of prevention, we are stressing on monitoring, warning and minimsing damage." Adds IMD's Deputy Director General (seismology), Dr. V. P. Kamble : "This is an integrated programme based on hazard analysis."

While physical modelling of seismicity prone areas is virtually impossible because of the fluctuating time, space and magnitude variables, theoretical modelling is being concentrated upon along with up or downgradation of seismic zones. The efforts include observational precursors, parametric modelling, chaos analysis and fractal analysis, based on the hard data which is being collected.

But the task will remain monumental. Explains Dr. Kamble: "Environmental sensing of faults is very difficult because direct measurement cannot be done and because stress accumulates over a wide area over a time period of over a million years. The per day increment leading to the actual quake cannot be measured." In fact, the Germans attempted to study a fault at close range by drilling a hole, reaching the boundary of the plate and implanting video cameras to capture exact motions. But their efforts were unsuccessful. The Chinese, too, have discarded predictions as a useful tool and the Japanese now face a similar predicament.

But the Indian effort, seismologists hope, will be properly directed. While the present instrumentation does not allow detection of tremors measuring below five on the Richter scale with advanced equipment, it is asserted that those of only three will be recognised and will be significant pointers towards possibly larger disorders. Dr. Kamble says, "We are trying to identify faults, their locations. We hope to have a large database of parameters, locations and epicentres."

Most importantly, it must be remembered that in Kobe the modern multistorey buildings, which were considered quake proof, did prove their efficacy as fatalities occurred essentially in areas crowded with older constructions. The DST is already working along these lines : Of integrating quakereistance into planning activity. The project is expected to finally lead to an improvement of the present construction codes. And densely-crowded metropolitan centres are also being focused upon. For a start, the micro-zonation of New Delhi has been undertaken. Similar studies will be gradually extended to other cities.

As for the Kashmir tragedy, it was largely avoidable because the SASE is supposed to be a premier institution with a mandate to prevent calamities of the sort which occurred. However, the Indian Army has acquired some expertise in dealing with such incidents and has reportedly brought its reaction time down to a very efficient level.

And there is hope for the future. A series of long-term precautions are being deliberated upon, including structural controls at sites by way of constructing diversion walls for avalanches, galleries (roofs) on highways, or mounts (a network of earthen barriers to retard the force of avalanches and landslides). Artificial triggering of avalanches when the build-up reaches dangerous levels has also been implemented, with some success.

But while for casts and warnings are regularly provided and often announced on television and radio, enforcing preventive measures remains a craft the authorities must perfect. In India nature itself is cruel. As Dr. Upadhyaya says, "Here the slopes of mountains are 30 to 40 degrees, which helps snow deposits build up." But obviously prevention of similar tragedies is possible and experts also call for utilisation of VHF satellite communications and cordless telephones to facilitate the control process.

Of special relevance is the Disaster Preparedness Programme, which was a district level network activated after the Latur catastrophe. It is now necessary for the authorities to ensure the programme become truly effective. Ultimately, however, it is apparent that India no longer remains as much at the mercy of the elements as it was in the past. INAV

 
 



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