Daily Excelsior... Editorial

EDITORIAL

By D R Ahuja
Pakistan Dictator Gen. Pervez Musharraf's sinister efforts to gain control of Afghanistan in the post-Taliban. ....more

Need to boost
organic farming

By Radhakrishna Rao
The havoc unleashed by high tech farming based on the widespread and indiscriminate use of agrochemicals has once..more

RBI's monetary and
credit policy

By K R Sudhaman
The Reserve Bank’s Credit Policy has had mixed reactions. While the industry, hit hard by the economic slowdown .... .more

Children's literature in Hindi

By Damodar Agrawal
There is a lot of activity in the world of children’s literature in Hindi. So much so that it looks....... .more

Seeds of new cold war

By K. V. S. Rama Sarma
A new cold war is taking birth in the strife-torn Afghanistan. The American bombs that........ .more

EDITORIAL

Old warmth thawing

A friend in deed is the friend we need. Nothing proves this better than the Indo-Russian friendship spanning five eventful decades of their history. All through the cold war when the world was held in peace by the threat of sure destruction, the two countries stood by each other. They fortified each other against the onslaught of the world forces bent of changing the world to their advantage by a brazen display of narrow strategic interests. Even as India formulated, fostered and ‘ran’ the concept of Non-alignment, she was a dependable ally of Russia, in all its deeds and acts. And, so was Russia in her part of the bargain. India then followed a singular hybrid of the Marxism and capitalism. She was a democracy and thus a natural ally to the democracies of the world. She was socialistic in thought and deed and there stood close to the leftist hearts. Ideologically she could ride either boat and did that for years. Yet the world knew where she would be found at the moment of reckoning, and counted her in the Russian block for all practical purposes.

Together Russia, Soviet Union as it was then, and India formed the other pole of the world though USSR clearly was the senior partner there. But India with its influence among the third-world countries commanded a modicum of respect, all her own. A factor there was the Indian penchant for trudging the lone path. While being in the broad ‘coalition’ with USSR she did keep her own mind. However, the fact that the ‘democratic world’ was fiercely amalgamated against the communists, and by default against all that went with it ideologically or actually, never gave India a chance to be critical of the block. Even in Afghanistan the Americans laid up so closely with Zia that India even if she wished could not be a party there. So it happened with all the world, especially the Indian part of the world where the American and British strategies went right against the Indian interests. Though few remember it now, Russia had not been the original choice of ‘friends’ for Nehru. He went to America first, tried to speak his heart to them as kinsmen in democracy, but the Americans turned so cold that he lost heart in the very second speech in the US Congress. The rest is the history of Indo-Russian friendship.

Then. the Soviet Union broke up. It broke up due to internal pressure, the pressure caused by the high failure of the socialist pattern of economy. Within years, the Indian economy, suffered similar tremors. Fortunately she did not have all our eggs in the basket of communism. And quickly put in more capitalist baskets to save more eggs. With capitalism, came markets and with open markets came the ‘natural friendship’ of kindred democracies Nehru had hoped to cement on his first visit to USA! The nineties were the happy honeymoon of Indo-US thaw that finally saw Clinton-glow in Delhi. Then came the ‘war’, Apparently it was a war after India’s heart. But the way it is going along the old American strategic route leaves little for the Indian hopes. Now, as then, it has been impressed upon India that she has to fight her wars herself, with her own strategies and must have her friends on her side. That was revealed to Russia during the Yeltsin years of American courtship. Now the friends are back in the bear hug, trying to comfort each other in this winter chill. A good thaw it should prove, because it is a convergence of national interests which any day are stronger than the market ones.

Osama’s Kashmir

The reports say that Osama bin Laden did pay a secret visit to Kashmir in the late nineties. In cognito, of course. That was a Kashmir that had been ravaged by his lieutenants and co-fliers in terrorism. Yet that Kashmir must have been better than any of the countries he had been to in his crusading years. It was definitely better than Afghanistan he had helped to devastate, with obscurantism over the years. One does not know whether he liked it or not but he must have been pretty uncomfortable in a state that still had a modicum of civilization in it. All has not been destroyed yet, and that must rankle heavily with the crusader who wants to see only prayer-halls and hangman’s nooses around. Was that why he though that a renewed effort was needed to bring Kashmir under his full spell ? The new rise in militancy there does coincide with the reported time of his coming there. And now, Kashmir certainly is going there with his terrorist brethren spreading mayhem all around. Had he waited a little more, before pontificating on the ‘denial of rights’ in Kashmiris he would have had more matter to meat up his assertions.

But even now, his predecessors and followers in terrorism have filled the scene up with enough ‘cruelties’, ‘slaughters’, ‘killings’ and ‘violations’ to make him fill a tape and send it out. And when al Jazeera videoed it out, few asked whether ‘cruelties’, ‘slaughters’. ‘killings’ and ‘violations’ were by Indians or his lieutenants. Possibly not even the Kashmiris asked that question, for they seem to have singularly forgotten that Kashmir had seen no ‘cruelties’, ‘slaughters’. ‘killings nor ‘violations’ before the jihadis infiltrated in and started the spree twelve years ago. Then, the late Zia chided them on being ‘non-violent. With help of Osama and his cohorts they have certainly violated Kashmir, its ethos and mentor. But probably, they would not remember even that. The people’s memories are said to be proverbially short. And, hence they come to be ruled by the likes of outright violators of rights, humans and civilization. And so, none remembers to ask what does a Saudi, child of American strategy, fed by the Pakistan, and sheltered by far Afghanis have to do with Kashmir. Or have nothing to do with his Arab brethren, right-less, rule-less, freedom-less, in tight shackles?

Pak-Taliban Relations

By D R Ahuja

Pakistan Dictator Gen. Pervez Musharraf's sinister efforts to gain control of Afghanistan in the post-Taliban scenario could not make any headway. Rather Pakistan got a stinging rebuff when the US Secretary of State Colin Powell made it clear that Islamabad will not be allowed to foist a government of its choice in Afghanistan. The next government in Afghanistan cannot be dictated into by Pakistan, he asserted. The alternative to Talibans will have to be an international effort under the auspices of the United Nations, Powell told a congressional hearing. There will be need to consult all of Afghanistan's neighbours and countries like India. China and Russia. Powell's blunt remarks came in the wake of Gen. Pervez Musharraf's insistence on a dominant role for Pakistan in determining Afghanistan's political future. To perpetuate its hold on Kabul, Pakistan has in recent days, tried its utmost to marginalise the Northern Alliance that is supported by Russia and India. In his emphatic rejection of a grand role by Pakistan in Afghanistan, analysts see Powell tried to distance himself from the criticism that the US was unwillingly acquiescing in Musharraf's crafty plan to co-opt ''modern Taliban elements in the future set up''. Pakistan cannot be allowed to do what it did before, namely foisting a government of their choice'' he asserted. Pakistan also did an unwise act by convening a meeting of Afgham leader in Peshawar failing to attract representation from the Northern Alliance and offer rebel groups. Hence the need to call another meeting in Turkey of Afghan leaders of all Afghan groups.

In an article M Ilyas Khan said Afghan governmet have traditionally been hostile to Islamabad. The Talibans are not the first government to turn against Islamabad. Kabul's border disputes with Pakistan and the differences over the nature and extent of Afghan transit trade that has traditionally been routed through Pakistan under treaties signed by the British with Afghan governments have always evinced an element of hostility towards Pakistan. Over the past nine years, however, Pakistan attempted to install what it calls ''friendly'' regimes in Kabul. Ironically these two turned hostile one after the other, proving the long-standing position that Kabul is a natural of India and not of Islamabad.

Following the demise of the communist regime in 1992, the Pakistan-based Afghan-resistance groups agreed to share power under an accord and an interim government was installed in Kabul under Sibghatullah Mujeddiedi. A moderate Islamist in compliance with the accord formula, Mujeddedi transferred power to Burhanuddin Rabbani, another moderate, two months later, though Rabbani was given an extension in his term, he refused to hand over power. He ruled Afghanistan with the help of his Defence Minister, Shah Masood, who had never lived in Pakistan during the Afghan Jehad. This fact was mentioned as the reason why Masood's government ultimately turned hostile to Pakistan.

Gulbuddin Hekmatyar had no such reasons. Though commanding the largest and most influential Mujahideen's Party during the resistance, he lived mostly in Pakistan and was considered a ''surrogate'' of the ISI. He fell out with President Rabbani when the later refused to step down. Though at a later stage he was appointed Prime Minister in Rabbani's government, he could not enter Kabul to assume office due to fighting with Masood. He later blamed the ISI for thus, saying the President's plans did not include handing over to a Pakhtoon Afghan. He now lives in exile in Iran.

The Taliban themselves have never been proud of their ties with Pakistan. Instead their second time leadership despises Pakistan, when they call Punjabis. But some extraordinary factors have kept their top leadership close to Islamabad. The political analysts have been predicting a worsening of Pak-Taliban ties since 1997. One way of this happening could have been the consolidation of power by the Taliban with Afghanistan, which thy still have not achieved. Another way would be for the Pakistanis themselves to turn against Taliban as has happened now by siding with America and lending their air bases to them. Some say Pervez Musharraf is playing a double game by deploying Mujahideens to fight againt the Americans.

The Pak rulers and ISI agencies not only destroyed Afghanistan by supporting Taliban but also tried to play the same game in Kashmir but they forgot that Kashmir is a part of secular and democratic India. The youth in Kashmir who were misled and trained on the pattern of Taliban realised very soon they were deceived by Pakistan rulers. Many of them surrendered and joined national stream. Pakistan has disowned Taliban whose boat seems to be sinking. Now the Kashmiris should also think seriously whether the Pak rulers are really their friends or foes. The fate of the Taliban is before them. A couplet from renowned Urdu poet Mirza Ghalib is an eye opener ''HUYE TUM DOST JIS KE DUSHMAN USKA ASMAN KYON HO'' (Meaning that if you become somebody's friend, he does not need heaven's enemity).

Need to boost organic farming

By Radhakrishna Rao

The havoc unleashed by high tech farming based on the widespread and indiscriminate use of agrochemicals has once again brought into sharp focus the need to practise farming in harmony with nature. No wonder, the pitfalls of the green revolution have led to a worldwide resurgence in natural farming that seeks yield from earth without spoiling the ecosystem at large. Indeed the much advertised green revolution, relying on the high yielding, vulnerable varieties and an abundant supply of water have failed to ward off the threat of droughts. Lacking resistance to insects and nests, and unable to withstand climatic fluctuations . The high yielding varieties have turned out to be no match for the proven natural varieties.

In fact, a scientific study by the American National Academy comes to the conclusion that the, application of pesticides and fertilisers does not necessarily lead to better farming than the natural farming. Perhaps the credit for putting natural farming on pratical footing an a global scale goes to Japanese plant pathologist Fukuoks who secured an FAO award for the signal service rendered to the cause of natural farming. A staunch believer in the principles of Zen Buddhism, Fukuoke says that his regenerate itself. Fukuoks is clear in his perception that the soil’s nourishing qualities stem from organic matter that return to soil periodically.

The world over organically- grown farm produce is gaining in popularity among the health and quality-conscious consumers to reduce dependence on non- renewable energy sources and realise the full efficiency of inputs and economic realisation of yields. Studies reveal that by adopting natural and sustainable farming methods, India can produce as much as 100-million of additional foodgrains.

According to Dr Teuro Higs, agricultural scientist and a staunch advocate of nature farming, the concept of nature farming seeks to re-establish the balance of energy in nature without using pesticides and chemicals. "This ancient technique of nature farming is based on sound ecological principles", says Dr Hifs. No wonder, nature farming is becoming popular in both the developed north and developing south.

In Tamil Nadu's Dharampuri district, a progressive farmer V R K Murthy has obtained spectacular resultsby integrating traditional farming practices with scientific techniques. According to murthy, intercropping is an insurance against crop failures. If one crop fails, one always has another to rely on, says Murthy.

Narayana Reddy, a farmer with a ten acre farm in Sorhunase hamlet near Bangalore, is another staunch votary of organic farming methods. Several farmers, scientists and researchers with an active interest in organic farming gather at his farm where they are advised not to be concerned over the stiff raise in prices of fertilizers and pesticides. Says Reddy, "Indian agriculture should seize the opportunity to bid adieu to synthetic fertilizers and adopt farming methods that make use of organic manure.''

Since Reddy’s farm is located close to Sai Baba's monastry at Whitefield, the farmer’s organic farming methods have received plenty of international exposure from tourists.

Reddy has already trained many farmers in and around his village in the technique of organic farming. He points out that farmers can switch over to organic farming gradually over a period of five years by stopping application of chemicals to a quarter of their land each year.

However, Reddy cautions that in the initial stages, the yield will be less for it takes time for the soil to adjust itself to the changes brought about by changing over from fertilizers to organic manures.

Reddy stresses that organic manure do not destroy earthworms—the true friends of farmers. According to Reddy, the presence of earthworms is vital as it increases nitrogen, potassium and phosphorous contents in the soil. Reddy states that farmers can not only a manage without using fertilizers and pesticides but have no real need for them.
PTI feature

RBI's monetary and credit policy

By K R Sudhaman

The Reserve Bank’s Credit Policy has had mixed reactions. While the industry, hit hard by the economic slowdown feels RBI Governor Bimal Jalan could have done much more, Government particularly Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha has described it as bold and forward looking aimed at spurring growth by infusing much needed liquidity. But there is no denying the fact it is a pragmatic response to the difficult situation that the economy is facing.

The new credit policy cuts the bank rate by 0.5 per cent, reduces the CRR from an effective 6.3 per cent to 5.25 per cent two stages and raises interest paid on CRR to the full bank rate of 6.5 per cent. The reduction in CRR by 200 basis points as much beyond expectation by the markets. This is expected to ease the liquidity by about Rs 8000 crore. Considering the recessionary trends world over and the recent unprecedented global events, these measures will certainly help in pump priming.

In the face of unfavourable industrial and export situation, RBI has reduced the GDP growth target for the current fiscal to 5-6 per cent from its earlier projections of 6-6.5 per cent. It is in this background, RBI claims to have adopted a pro- growth approach in the policy. But considering that the economic fundamentals are strong with moderate inflation, stable and low interest rates, comfortable foreign exchange reserves of 45 billion dollars and large foodgrain stocks, one is not wrong in saying that Jalan could have been more bold in the credit policy. Perhaps having served in Government for long, it appears he chose to be cautious even as he took some steps forward.

There is no denying the fact that Indian interest rates have been reduced by less than in most of the developing countries in the present circumstances and CRR remains among the highest in the world. With inflation at 3.2 per cent, the real prime lending rate at 7 per cent will certainly act as a dampener to attract investment, which is the need of the hour to kickstart the economy. The complaint of the Industry that Jalan has done too little too late is not totally out of place.

One good thing he has done by cutting bank rate by 50 basis points is that he has helped the Government, which is perhaps the largest borrower. With fiscal deficit likely to mount in the face of huge shortfall of revenue collections by about Rs 30,000 to Rs 35,000 crore, the Government borrowing is expected to shoot up, much beyond the targeted Rs 116,000 crore for the financial year. As it is there are indications that the borrowing has touched nearly 80 per cent of the budgeted level in just six months. So any cut in bank rate will help the Government as it would reduce its interest burden marginally, which stood at around Rs 100,000 crore annually.

On CRR there are some criticisms that it is not exactly two per cent. Effectively it is only 0.8 per cent, releasing about Rs 8,000 crore in two tranches of Rs 6,000 crore and Rs 2,000 crore on Nov 3 and Dec 29. This coupled with increase in interest rate on eligible CRR balance at best will make a difference of a few basis points in terms of reduction in reserve-adjusted cost of funds.

There are also fears that the additional liquidity provided might find itself in undesirable avenues in the absence of fiscal impulse. So it is all the more important that the Government provide the necessary fiscal stimulus. Jalan has now shown the way and it is now for the Vajpayee Government to act. RBI has taken some risk though not adequately and the Government should respond to spur growth and investment by pushing up much needed public expenditure.

The cut in interest rate will impact on prices of financial assets, especially bonds and equities. The financial market is far from integrated with the rest of the market. Financial intermediation business in the country is dominated by Public Sector Banks and Financial Institutions. Hence responses to changes in interest rate are not forthcoming in the equities market. It would have helped further if RBI had relaxed the cap on the Capital Market exposure and introduced increased supervision on this part of the Banks’ portfolio. This would have lifted the morale of the equity market.

There are some sops for the exporters. The policy has advised reduction in the ceiling on interest rate on rupee export credit by one percentage point across the board for six months. Jalan claims that the effective interest costs on six month export credit is only 3-4 per cent. But exporters feel they still have an uncompetitive credit structure, more so in the present global uncertainties. The only silver lining is that Jalan promised to look into exporters demands by making study with the help of NCAER.

In some the major benficiary is the Government as its cost of borrowing would be less. Besides Government's interest outflow would fall considerably in the background of the prevailing poor credit offtake. The worst affected will however be the senior citizens- the retired persons and pensioners who do not have social security schemes that match up to those in develolped countries.
PTI Feature

Children's literature in Hindi

By Damodar Agrawal

There is a lot of activity in the world of children’s literature in Hindi. So much so that it looks like a golden age. Though there is a dearth of magazines for children, there are about 500 writers regularly writing for them and publishing about the same number of books every year. By the Hindi Akademi of Delhi and NCERT they are being regularly awarded prizes.

Major participants in the activity are National Book Trust, the Children’s Book Trust and the Publications Division of the Information Ministry. Others include private publishers, the Bal Bhawan Society, Delhi’s Hindi Akademi, the NCERT, Bal Kalyan Sansthan (Kanpur), the Bharatiya Bhasha Parishad (Calcutta) and the Hindi academies of some state governments.

In addition, the All India Radio, Delhi, and the regional radio stations regularly broadcast literary programmes for children.

Yet the writers’ and publishers, interest in children's literature seems to be ad hoc and half-hearted. They pursue this as a side-business. During the years of the operation black-board scheme, thousands of books were written and publishedbecause it was supposed to be a commercial venture.

But when the scheme flopped, credit NBT, there was a lull in the trade. Publishers now shudder to invest money on children’s books.

Children’s writers are treated in low esteem. Awards for children’s literature fetch the lowest amount of money. In 1994, Delhi’s Hindi Akedemi announced no award, and the awards distributed earlier were limited to Rs.2,000. The highest annual award of Rs. 10,000 is given by the NCERT, but only two Hindi writers get it. The Bharatendu Harishchandra Puraskar- has extended its scope to cover children’s literature. But, unfortunately, no writer was considered fit for the first and second prizes. The winner of the third prize only got Rs.3,000.

Though the quantity of literature being produced every year is not very discouraging, the quality leaves much to be desired. That is because of the lip-service paid to this genre. The emphasis of the National Book Trust, the biggest public sector publisher, is on the publication of utilitarian literature, which includes biographs and informative material, which is a set-back to original creative writers.

The NCERT has confined itself to textbooks. The Publications Divisions does not publish poetry, though it has started bringing out story books.

Even otherwise, the writers for children are divided between two steel-framed loyalty groups led by Harikrishna Devasare on the one hand, and Jai Prakash Bharati on the other.

The one preaches the modern scientific and psychological approach and the other is a votary of fancies, fairies and myths.

There is also a third group called the Kanpur Syndrome’ led by Dr. Rashtra Bandhu, which specialises in the production of poetry for self-glorification. Their monthly ‘Bal Sahitya Sameek shall trades in idolatry and iconoclasticism, apart from giving the prestigious’ Rs. 500 annual puraskars to the ‘best writers.

The scenario is darkened further by the dearth of good children’s magazines. Bennet Coleman’s "Parag" was closed years ago. The only children’s magazine that continues to win the little hearts is Hindustan Times’s Nandan and Rajasthan Patrikas Balhans. Though their circulation at present is nearly a quarter of a million, they fail to reach even two per cent of the Hindi- speaking families in Delhi and Jaipur from where they are published.

Other magazines, Champak and Suman Saurabh by Delhi Press, are lacking in literary content, though they are quite popular.

The All India Radio with its huge network in the Hindi-belt could have done a lot to boost literature for children. But the production for the children’s slot has always been in the hands of the immature and the inexperienced.

After the retirement of Balak Ram Nagar, for example, the radio "Bal-Karyakram" has suffered a setback. It has lost its poetry and originality.

The Hindi newspapers are not contributing much towards improving the quality of children’s literature, though in their Sunday editions they are devoting enough space to it. The stories and poems that they publish are mostly of ephemeral interest written as they are to suit particular festivals and occasions. Yet the contribution of Parag and Dharmyug cannot be ignored.

The credit for establishing children’s poetry as a separate entity goes to them, though they are now defunct.

If there is a deterioration in quality, this is due also to the tendency of the big writers to spurn and look down upon those who write exclusively for children. This is not to say that there is a total blackout. Away from hype and hoopla, there are many who are writing well and writing substantially.

If a proper evaluation of the "Hindi' Bal Sahitya' has to be done it should be on the strength of their writings only. The rest is worth ignoring.
PTI Feature

Seeds of new cold war

By K. V. S. Rama Sarma

A new cold war is taking birth in the strife-torn Afghanistan. The American bombs that are killing innocent people and flattening towns and villages, may or not help the cause for which Washington launched the attacks more than two weeks back, but they are creating a fertile ground for a clash of interests among nations that are directly or indirectly connected with Afghanistan. Whether the war is long or short, the fire that was ignited by the attacks on the World Trade Centre in New York and Pentagon in Washington is unlikely to end soon. The US has correctly perceived these two ghastly incidents to be declaration of war —on the same lines as Pearl Harbour attack - and responded as any self respecting nation would and should do.

It is foolish to imagine that Master Militant Osama bin Laden and his protective cover Taliban would not have anticipated the American response. And it is equally naive to believe that Pakistan, which was infact the lifeline of the Taliban -bin Laden axis, was not part of the grand advance preparations to face the expected American wrath. Since the American diplomatic and strategic reflexes and responses are stereotyped and are known, the Taliban -Pak nexus must have made adequate planning to take advantage of the rugged topography of Afghanistan and the deadly winter months. It is entirely possible that the attacks in New York and Washington were timed for September keeping in mind the possibility of American response to come in pre winter months and Ramzan fasting period.

If the Americans go on as promised by Secretary of State Colin Powell, ignoring Gen. Musharraf's plea to recess bombing during the Ramzan month, the Muslim opinion all over the world will become increasingly more strident and anti-American. And, continued U.S. armed action will take the war into the winter months posing serious logistical problems for the Americans. Apart from the missile attack the U.S. had launched following the militant attack on its embassy in Kenya, which gave a very good idea of the ways of the American war machine. Taliban also knows the American thinking quite well since both had collaborated closely to fight the Russians. Non partisan reports from Afghanistan indicate that the U.S. bombing has not suffered any damage at all.

Barring civilian deaths and destruction of private houses and a few public buildings the U.S. bombing has not been able to inflict the expected blow to Taliban let alone cripple its war machine. Reports say that life is going on an usual and Taliban’s military helicopters are flying on their routine rounds. As Taliban has said repeatedly it is waiting for U.S. foot soldiers. The commandos the U.S has dropped in Northern Afghanistan are reported to have withdrawn after a few hours! Equally inspiring are the reports about the Northern Alliance, which apparently has not made any headway at all. No direct contact or confrontation has taken place between the two warring Afghan factions so far.

The Americans have made it clear that they would not like to provide air cover to Northern Alliance troops without which real thrust towards Kabul is not possible. Taliban’s forces are estimated at 80,000 to 85,000. Having learnt the art of fighting a big and better -equipped army during their wars with the Russian Red Army, Taliban would know how to deploy its limited troops and firepower to maximum advantage against the Americans. The elusive Taliban has already compelled U.S. Defence Secretary Rumsfeld to admit that U.S. forces may not be able to catch Osama. Given this pessimistic outlook, the U.S. campaign in Afghanistan seems to be going nowhere just as the Northern Alliance too seems to moving in rounds with no one coming along to help.

It is this stalemate and consequent frustration that will foment clash of interests leading to a new cold war. Perhaps anticipating this operational deadlock the Americans have begun talking about post-Taliban regime prematurely. Clearly they want to find a political alternative to military action. That not only would save the face of the Americans, especially President Bush, but will also give them a foothold in the geographically crucial Afghanistan, which is situated at a vital trijunction of Asia. Upto here all the players in the game - Pakistan, Russia, Central Asian Republics, China and India - have no objections.

The problems arise if Americans try to foist a government of their choice creating a Southern Alliance. Already Secretary Powell has unceremoniously rejected Gen. Musharraf’s idea of imposing on Kabul a pro-Pak regime. Now that the U.S. has exposed its mind, Gen. Musharraf will begin playing the old Pakistani game of double -dealing. The capture and execution of moderate veteran Afghan leader Abdul Haq by Taliban, foiling the attempts of American helicopters and gunships to rescue him does not augur well for efforts to cobble up a compromise regime to replace Taliban. It is a clear warning to Washington and others that Taliban overtly and Pakistan covertly will not permit the present Kabul regime to be changed peacefully. Pakistan’s idea of a regime pliable to its own interests is bond to become the bone of contention dividing the powers involved into different camps.

If the war goes on as at present producing no worthwhile results, the U.S. may willy-nilly allow itself to be persuaded by Gen. Musharraf to accept a new Taliban regime -old wine in new bottle - on the understanding that Osama wil halt his tirade against Washington. If this means some adjustment in Middle East, the U.S. will not hesitate to agree. The crude manner the U.S. has been trying to rein in Israel gives an inkling of Pentagon’s thinking.

If Pakistan brokers peace between the U.S. and Taliban, all the three can hope to dominate Central Asia and its natural resources and exert enormous political pressure on others. What must be remembered is that the fundamental cause for U.S. - Islamic conflict in Palestine. Since the American civilization, prestige and power are at stake it should not be a surprise if the U.S. comes up with a compromise solution to bring peace in Middle East - In such a scenario, the possibility of Islamic military being diverted to other regions like Kashmir in India, Sinkiang in China and Chechnya in Russia cannot be and should not be ruled out. That would herald a new cold war. —CNF