EDITORIAL
Enlist the people
The State of Jammu and
Kashmir may be one of the most sparsely populated states
in the union, but this is true only for the larger
picture of the State. Within the State the density of
population varies in a very abnormal fashion. The large
tracts of Ladakh that comprise almost half of the State's
land area are very thinly inhabited. So is the large
district of Doda, which makes up another twelve percent
of the State area. There is a high density in the
southwestern slot. These are the major districts of Jammu
and the whole of the Valley. The land portion is a mere
third of the State's area and accounts for nearly
three-forths of the population of the State. This is the
main focus of the terrorists. While there has been some
movement of militancy towards the Kargil district, it has
been well contained there. The major extension of the
terrorists over the last half a decade has been to the
southern parts from the Valley of Kashmir. These are the
districts of Jammu. The latest to be added here is the
southern fringe of the State comprising the Kathua
district.
The district over the last
two or three years has been a great increase in the
terrorist infiltration as well as action. It has also
become a feeder channel for the terrorists in the Doda,
which the district touches in its northeastern hills of
Bani. This gravitation is the most serious development of
these years. Possibly it could also be the place where
the operation to fold up the terrorism in the State and
bundle it out could begin. But that would remain only a
pipe dream until there is full involvement of the army,
administration and the people in the effort. Though the
army, administration have been in good concert here,
there is a feeling among the observers that an all-out
effort has not come into operation even months after the
areas were declared disturbed. The same observers point
out that the involvement of the people in the areas in
the campaign against the terrorism has not been of the
desired degree. Indeed, the people's power and vigilance
is a formidable asset available to the security fighting
the terrorists here. The people on one hand are in a
position to render a yeoman's service here and are also
willing to participate in this undeclared war against the
State.
But unfortunately the
participation of the people has not been enlisted fully
and functionally here. Though Village Defence Committees
are operating in Doda and doing some good work there, the
potential has not been fully exploited. VDCs are ill
equipped. They are also not well connected. The idea of
the VDCs can work only if it has a full backing of the
security agencies. They can act as the vanguard of the
fight against the terrorists, but they must have
summonable access to the assistance of the security
agencies, which can reach them at quick call. Somehow the
VDCs have been taken as something, which should be able
to confront terrorists on their own. And that wrong
assumption has cost many lives there and even cast doubts
on their role. There are many people who would simply
dismiss the VDCs as practically 'ineffective' when in
fact they have rendered great service in saving the
lives, if not in actually halting the spread of
terrorists. If anyone thought that the Village Defence
Committees would drive the terrorists out singly, with
their 303 rifles, they were living in a fool's paradise.
The terrorists, as is
being realized now, are highly organized, well trained,
well supplied and highly motivated troops who would not
be fought out by amateurs. In many instances they are
actually commandeered by the regular Pakistani army
personnel. The guerilla tactics, which they have adopted,
are hard to be combated even by regular security forces.
The effort needed here is great and it must be highly
methodical. Hence the Village Defense Committees have
been found wanting. But the deficiency is more on the
part of the support and facilities and defense committees
were given than in the actual efforts of the VDCs. And
they are not the last word in peoples' participation. As
all analysts agree the fight against the terrorists has
to be multifaceted and multipronged. The VDCs here
provide the first arm, which can bolster the efforts of
the security agencies. But the strategy has to look to
more extensive participation of the people. Two great
handicaps of the security agencies are the intimation and
timing. The general populace is best suited to act as the
eyes and ears of the security agencies. They are
everywhere all the time and can easily supply timely
intimation.
The trick is to enlist
this wide network in the intelligence gathering of
security forces. For this the villages and the areas have
to be interlinked more effectively. The people have to be
given the assurance that their efforts would be
'rewarded'. Though monetary rewards too can be helpful,
it is the 'reward' of action and response that has to be
ensured. For an instance the high security mobilization
that the Malhar area of Billawar has now seen should have
been mounted atleast five years ago when there were clear
indications that militants infested the high mountain
lands there. So it has been in Bani where the terrorists
have been having the run of the higher reaches for the
last several years without any effective counter. The
repeated massacres in Doda show that the enlisting of the
people, information networking and the location of the
security forces pickets at strategic places, wherefrom
they could reach the distress areas at quick notice, have
not taken place. All over the involvement of the people
has been halting and hesitant. The civil administrating
has not acted as a good coordinator here. In fact reports
from different places assert that the administration does
not particularly favour this type of initiative by the
people, until the situation gets serious and then nothing
helps. That situation has to change. The people,
administration and the security agencies have to act in
active concert. This terrorism has to be fought out.
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Sam's
spy in the sky
By
Allabaksh
The United
States is depending as much on its
missiles as on the spy in the sky in its
hunt for the most wanted man, Osama bin
Laden, dead or alive. Most American
military spy satellites have just one
task. Two private imaging satellites,
OrbView-4 and Quickbird from commercial
operators, Orbimage and Digitalglobe are
also chipping in with their, help on
request.
OrbView-4
was put into orbit ten days after Black
Tuesday from California. It is designed
to analyse surface composition and see
through camouflage. Quickbird is about a
year old in the sky. It was launched in
October last year. It can scan the earth
very closely and record details smaller
than a meter.
The spy
satellites, often called eye (ear?) in
the sky are designed to detect
transmissions from radios, radars and
other electronic systems. The
interception provides vital clues to the
type and location of the transmitter even
if is a hand-held radio.
Most
military communications, whether it is of
Uncle Sam or his foe, Osama bin Laden are
in codes. These encrypts can be
deciphered with some effort using the
computer processing techniques. One
hundred per cent success is, of course,
not assured. Not always, anyhow. An
analysis of the pattern of transmissions
over time helps in getting an additional
input.
During the
Gulf war, the United States deployed a
wide variety of systems to collect as
many data as possible on the Saddam
Hussein Empire. Unlike now in the case of
Afghanistan, where there is only one
source for hard intelligence, Pakistan,
(because of its identification with the
Taliban, the intelligence inputs from it
are suspect), there were one too many
sources, space and terrestrial, in
respect of Iraq.
In fact,
the Americans had a first knowledge of
Baghdad till a few days prior to the
misadventure into Kuwait. The US envoy to
the Iraqi capital was privy to most
happenings in the country. Yet, when the
chips were down the Americans had no
alternative to requisitioning
intelligence communication services. How
effective these were in the ultimate
analysis is a different matter.
According
to some strategic experts, Iraq was
fairly successful in dodging the
"American spies"’ at least
prior to the final weeks of the war. The
first warning signals about an impending
invasion of Kuwait was picked up from the
Soviet-built ‘Tall King’ radar.
It was out of service for several months.
The 350-mile range radar became
‘alive’ on July 29, 1990, as
the Iraqi tanks were getting ready to
roll down the highway to Kuwait.
By early
October, U.S. electronic intelligence had
some success in monitoring Iraqi military
communications though the Saddam men's
recourse to underground cables to
communicate made ''crystal gazing"
their intentions very difficult to the
most determined even.
It is a
surprise, therefore, when everything was
going in their ‘favour’ why
they surrendered "meekly'’. It
is certainly a subject for deeper
analysis some day, not now, when America
is still in a mood to punish Iraq
accusing Baghdad of helping the Osama
combine.
Osama bin
Laden, the American target in
Afghanistan, has not been using mobile
phones. He has given up his love for the
sat phone a while ago in the Clinton era
itself. Neither he nor any of his close
lieutenants depend on the Pakistan
telecom system.
Most
important cities of Afghanistan are on
the Pakistan network and as such are just
a local call away. Some can be reached
from Peshawar and some others from
Quetta. From rest of Pakistan, they can
be dialled using the STD facility.
The fear
of being ‘heard’ is
all-pervasive at the best of times. More
so, now when Gen Musharraf, the Pakistan
President is fighting his own survival
battles and, therefore, cannot be counted
as a part of the inner circle.
Nevertheless, the Americans have not
given up hope and are pinning their hopes
on some telephone link somewhere coming
crackling into the interceptors’
log.
Till such
time, there is no alternative to the
high-resolution images of the Afghan land
mass sent from imaging spy satellites to
the Pentagon. These images record people
on the move too. Computer study of these
pictures should throw light on the state
of affairs on the ground. These may even
pin point Osama bin Laden and his cave if
any. If this happens, then it would make
the operation a really short military
adventure into the unknown. Who knows?
Any invention is as much a matter of
chance as luck.
As pointed
out at the outset, the OrbView-4 offers
one-meter resolution multi-spectral
imagery. The high-resolution camera on
the satellite, owned by Orbimage,
acquires hyper spectral imagery, which is
useful for classifying material types on
the Earth’s surface. It visits each
location once in less than three days and
is capable of turning from side-to-side
up to 45 degrees from a polar orbital
path.
Primarily,
OrbView-4 utility is in agriculture and
forestry management. Now, of course, the
Alliance against Terrorism stands to
benefit since the dividing line between
security and prosperity is very thin. In
a manner of speaking, this is not an
extra duty for this or any other
satellite.
Helping
national security agencies manage
international relations on a global scale
is a part of its charter. It is for
nothing the on-board instruments are able
to offer one-meter panchromatic imagery
and four-meter multispectral imagery with
a swath width of eight kilometres besides
a 200-channel hyper spectral imagery with
a swath width of five kilometres.
Orbinage
has in all three satellites in the
‘service’ of the needy. View-1,
launched on April 3, 1995, is providing
daily several images of the earth's crust
and cloud formation. These have improved
long-term weather forecasts. The second
satellite, View-2, has been offering
broad- area multi-spectral imagery of
both land and ocean since August 1, 1997.
OrbView- 3
is still in the works though its
successor, OrbView -4 is in its orbit. It
may be launched some time next year. Its
resolution imagery will help the US to
keep watch on potential conflict zones,
identify and (target) enemy troops and
assets, plan air, ground and naval
missions, deploy resources; and assess
battle damage.
On Black
Tuesday, human intelligence failed in its
entirety. But the spy satellites did
their job. They picked up the aftermath
of the attack on the twin towers of the
World Trade Centre. The gaping hole left
by the collapse of the towers and the
damage to the Pentagon were seen by
Ikonos satellite, orbiting 423 miles
above the earth.
Ikonos is
the woods first high - resolution
commercial earth imaging satellite. It
moves at a speed of 1750 miles per hour.
Its
one-meter resolution image of Pentagon
shows extensive damage to the western
side and interior rings of the
multi-ringed building. In another image
dearly visible are the cars in the
Pentagon parking lot.
The images
of Manhattan show the remains of the
1,350-foot WTC towers, and the debris and
dust that had settled throughout the
area.
Also
noticed are the many emergency and rescue
vehicles in the streets in the vicinity
of the disaster.
‘The
Ikonos graphically recorded the dramatic
images of the Osama terror. These are
offering a new perspective to the attack
on the symbols of American pride.
-Syndicate Features
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Terminator
technology
Who
dies-seeds or the farmers?
By Dr
Madhu Saxena and Dr Roopa Vajpeyi
While USA
has given green signal to the
controversial terminator technology to
spread its tentacles in its own country,
time would not be far away when it would
reach other countries on the globe as
well. The technology, which would hit
markets by January 1, 2003, is currently
the greatest threat to humanity. If, it
is commercialized on large-scale basis,
it will inevitably lead to famine and
starvation on a worldwide basis. Major
impact would be on over three-quarters of
the world’s farmers (including many
of the poorest) who depend on saving
seeds from one year to-the next.
The basic
theme to popularize this technology says
- that since excessive use of fertilizers
has caused land degradation, manifesting
salinity and alkalinity. Pesticides,
though efficacious, have caused enormous
damage because of non-judicious use or
have accidentally impacted non-target
organisms. Therefore, productive seeds
with quality traits are the answer to the
problem, In this technology, a useful
gene coding for a property is inserted
into the plant compatible promoter and a
terminator sequence Genes promoters and
terminators are DNA sequences having
different properties. The genes used are
usually obtained from other organisms or
they can also be synthesized in the
laboratory. The promoter and terminator
sequences direct the genes to develop
into the desired trait for which they are
used. The terminator sequence however
renders the plants incapable to producing
fertile seeds. The net result being, you
get something additional only on loosing
something so basic like production of
fertile seeds. Indeed it is a blessing in
disguise!
Implications
of Terminator Technology
* The
poor farmers in India and other
developing countries may get tempted to
use this technology or if forced due to
their ignorance they may not be aware of
the embedded terminator technology into
the new varieties of seeds in the market.
They will end up buying them with the
motif of having a high yielding crop.
Such a crop, if fails will end up adding
to a number of burdens on the farmers in
the current as well as in the subsequent
generations,
* Their
crop won’t be affected that season
but when the farmers will sow the seeds
next season they would discover that
their seeds are sterile, so they do not
germinate when re-planted.
* Farmers
will neither get the fruit nor can save
the seeds for replanting or breed new
crop varieties, and they are forced to
buy fresh seeds year after year
* All
investment would be lost.
* May end
up having contaminating certain other
plants causing environmental concerns or
gene pollution. It is likely that the
trait of seed sterility could be passed
to other non-genetically-engineered crops
making most or all of the seeds sterile
in the region.
* Poor
farmers in an area might have to face
famine and hunger leading to Markets
suicides and starvation deaths.
Markets
It is a
glaring fact that India has entered the
Guinness book of world records in being
the number one country around the world
in importing large variety of seeds.
India buys more than $2 million worth of
fruit and vegetable seeds from the US
every year. With a market share of 23 per
cent, the US is the largest supplier of
seeds to India. Companies like, BASF, Du
Pont, Pharmasia (Monsanto) have patents
on Terminator Technology. Delta and Pine
land (D&PL) and the United States
Department of agriculture (USDA) jointly
own the terminator patent (US
#5,723,765). US has granted permission to
the $301-million D&PL, one of the top
seed giants world over and USDA - to
begin commercialization of seeds
empowered with Terminator technology. In
the process USDA- who will get a royalty
of 5 per cent on the net sales. They have
now jointly applied for a license in 78
countries to sell seeds using this
technology. United States Department of
agriculture.
Further
the companies hope that sterile seeds
will enable them to expand their markets
for Genetically modified food in
developing countries. As it is, the
modern technology has reduced the scope
for saving seeds. The hybrid, high
yielding seeds reproduce badly, if at
all, thus forcing farmers to come back
and buy more. Hybrid varieties of seeds
are particularly poor at reproduction,
and both developing and developed
countries now tend to buy seeds each
year. This habit will silently seep in
and force farmers to buy terminator seeds
each year without protest forgetting
their own rights.
Impact
on Farmer’s Right and Biodiversity
Farmer’s
have fundamental right to save seeds and
breed crops. But if this technology
enters our country, this right would
eventually.be lost and with the passage
of time it will have a hazardous effect
on destroying the ever shrinking forests
with their biodiversity, It is said that
each day one plant species becomes
extinct.
Further,
Lok Sabha recently passed the Protection
of Plant Varieties and Farmers’
Rights Bill, 1999. According to the bill
the farmers are recognized as breeders,
cultivators and conservers of the seeds
in their possession.
It
provides them the right to register a
variety they have evolved over a period
of time. They can also legally sell their
seeds but cannot sell for reproduction
under commercial marketing. Farmers can
get their evolved varieties registered
only if they are able to conform to the
criteria of novelty, uniformity and
stability through a difficult and
stringent process.
The above
bill although superficially gives the
impression of coming out in favour
of farmers but farmers are actually the
bill’s primary and targeted victims.
It creates a paradise for multinational
breeders and hence it is suspected
whether farmers I will be able to trade
in seeds or not. It facilitates filing of
lawsuits against farmers if found selling
patented or branded seeds with penalties
to the tune of either three years of
imprisonment or fines upto Rs. 10 lakh.
The possible consequences are horrendous.
Also that
it grants permission to the back door
entry of Genetically Modified crops and
their seeds. Consequently farmers will
surrender to the multinationals with
their high quality terminator seeds
instead of their own seeds which will
each time have to be proved for their
novelty. Thus leaving little scope to
enter the commercial market.
It is said
that Monsanto, have drawn up rigorous
licensing agreements for farmers in the
US and Canada who wish to buy their
genetically modified seeds. Monsanto had
the right to visit the farmer’s land
and take seed samples to check whether
the farmer is obeying the contract.
The farmer
also had to ensure that anyone who bought
his produce followed the same rules,
otherwise he as the original buyer, will
have to pay the penalty. The obligations
of the contract were fully binding all
the successors or people doing business
with the contract holder, in the process
the farmer himself cannot exercise his
own right without Monsanto’s
explicit permission. It has been reported
that by early 1999 Monsanto had contested
525 cases against farmers who saved or
re-used the seeds, claiming damages of
tens of thousands of dollars. As a
result, more than 100 farmers in the US
and Canada destroyed their crops out of
fear from being sued.
Can we
say No to Terminator!
The
technology, which could spell disaster
for hundreds of millions of people around
the world, is being protested as a
dangerous and immoral technology that
should never see the light of the day.
The technology’s sole objective is
to increase the profits of seed industry
by forcing farmers to return to the
commercial seed market every year. While
the biggest nation USA promotes the
technology it would be seen in the times
to come that how many countries could
really resist it.
Global
Issue
The
controversial terminator technology is
being debated worldwide. Although
India’s Agriculture minister has
told the Indian Parliament in August,
that he has banned the import of seeds
containing the terminator gene because of
the potential harm to Indian Agriculture.
Yet, it is a big question that how far
India doesn’t come into the trap of
USA and other developed countries for
this matter.
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No
solution to break the bind of deepening
demand
deflation
By S. V. Vaidyanathan
The appalling
terrorist attack on the United States and the
counter-attack on Afghanistan by a coalition
force has sent shock waves across the world. An
increasingly globalising world has to encounter
growing vulnerability and there is no escaping
the reverberations of external shocks in this new
ethos. Will the global economy dragged into a
recession along with the US? Will the US become
restrictive and initiate a protectionist stance
in the global economy? What are the likely
consequences of these events on India? The
answers to these questions are tentative and
sketchy.
The extent of the
impact on the economy would depend on whether the
attack is a one-time event or the start of a new
period of heightened uncertainty. That the US and
the global economy are both on the decelerating
growth trajectory is well-known. The US economy
is sure to bear the burnt. It will be hit by the
severity of disruptions and dislocations of
trade, travel, tourism, civil aviation, and a
host of financial services, especially the
insurance sector.
Apart from the
loss of income, there is going to be a
‘negative’ real wealth effect due to
the erosion in stocks market valuations. If a
rapidly falling consumer confidence index, the
set back to retail trade and the creeping
increase in the unemployment rate are any
indication, the US economy is in a recession. All
this would impact its prevailing fragile growth
prospects.
The $10-trillion
US economy represents over 22 per cent of the
global economy and accounts for 14.2 per cent of
the export of goods and services. It is the
largest importer, providing support of over
$1,258 billion, or 18.9 per cent, of total world
supplies in 2000. In the 1990s, the US recorded
an annual import growth of 9 per cent, while the
average for the world was about 6 per cent.
Thus, it served as
a powerful engine of world economic growth
through its massive imports. Besides, the US has
been attracting a major share of the world
capital flows and has been the significant driver
of foreign direct investment. Any setback to such
a formidable economic might is bound to make the
outlook uncertain for the rest of the world.
India cannot be an excemption.
How will the
impending global recession affect India? For the
past two-three years India has been affected by a
crisis of underperformance, credibility, and
confidence. Our real GDP growth is progressively
declining. Hopes are now being pinned on the
normalcy of the monsoon to bail out the economy.
But fresh external shocks threaten to neutralise
the gains of a strong agricultural recovery.
In the short term
(up to this fiscal), India’s economy would
suffer a demand contraction impact due to the
loss or reduction of: (i) Remittance income; (ii)
exports of goods and computer software; (iii)
‘real’ wealth effect due to the erosion
of market capitalisation of equity investment;
(iv) capital spending of the government; and (v)
disposable income in the event of additional tax
efforts to overcome the prevailing fiscal
strains.
In quantitative
terms, the aggregation of the negative impact can
be placed at Rs. 6,500-7,500 crore in nominal
terms, of 0.2-0.3 per cent of real GDP.
Besides, Indian
industry would be forced to absorb the cost
escalation (inflationary) impact of (i) the
likely hike in POL prices to cut back the
mounting oil pool deficit; (ii) substantial
increase in the insurance premia burden; (iii)
additional bunker’s freight surcharge for
shipping; (iv) some hardening of interest rates,
and so on. The total burden of these would be Rs.
3,500-4,500 crore or about 0.2 per cent of the
nominal GDP. India would also witness reduced
supply of capital flows of at least $1-1.5
billion due to freezing of FIIs’
investments, cutback in remittances and
postponing FDI and capital raising through GDRs,
ADRs and ECBs by Indian corporates.
Admittedly,
India’s external vulnerability is low, it
remains predominantly a domestic economy, and its
export dependency is 9 per cent of GDP. But,
significantly, its exposure to the US is as much
as 20 per cent in terms of goods exports and 60
per cent in software exports. Likewise,
India’s exposure to the European Union
countries (mostly NATO members and susceptible to
terrorism) is fairly high at 25 per cent and 20
per cent respectively in terms of goods and
software exports.
Considering the
quantitative dimensions, the situation may prima
facie not appear to be one of doom and gloom.
Yet, it needs to be stressed that the proverbial
resilience of the Indian economy cannot be taken
for granted. For the past few years some crisis
or the other has hit India, be it US sanctions
after the Pokhran nuclear test or the Gujarat
earthquake, Orissa floods, steep oil price hike,
etc. Every external shock or natural calamity
progressively weakens the economic fundamentals.
There are
obviously two sides to the macroeconomic
fundamentals. Apparently, there is no cause for
anxiety on the supply side, except perhaps due to
the poor progress of the infrastructure sector.
In fact, the critical problem at this stage is
how to deploy effectively surpluses of food,
forex reserves, industrial capacities and
liquidity in the banking system for the
economy’s revival.
In contrast, the
demand side (both consumption and investment) has
been so severely battered the last few years that
its adverse impact will be more long-lasting. The
constant systemic or structural failures are
ripping open demand weaknesses of the economy in
practically every sphere. Thus, there is no depth
either in the equity or debt markets. As a
consequence, financial markets go through turmoil
with the outbreak of every shocking event or
news. So also the lack of depth in the
consumption behaviour of Indian households, the
myths of middle-class purchasing power and its
sustainability are constantly being exposed. Once
again, the aftermath of the US terrorist attack
is going to affect demand drivers rather than the
supply side of our economy.
Having said this,
what is the way out for the economy to obviate
the prospect of further deceleration of real GDP
growth this year? Do we need more reforms and
better implementation? Or, perhaps, vigorous
pump-priming and liberal credit at softer
interest rates? We were clueless earlier, and
even more so now.
There is no
shortage of discussions and documentation on what
needs to be done. Many brilliant suggestions were
made in the series of recent meeting with the
Prime Minister, including the presentation of the
McKinsey study. Therefore, there is hardly
anything new that can be prescribed. Can the
policy-makers see opportunity in the present
adversity? Surely, economic fundamentals are
operating at the sub-optimal level. Surpluses of
supply essentially reflect the deficiencies of
demand. Therefore, how to reverse the declining
demand in the midst of the emerging crisis is a
formidable challenge.
That the
country’s fiscal health will be under acute
stress is a foregone conclusion. Yet, in the
short-term, thee is no other option but to
reflate the economy through fiscal expansion.
This world certainly entail, among other things,
(i) fulfillment of all the budgetary commitments
of Plan and capital spending; (ii)
across-the-board or selective substantial
reduction in excise (and/or any other form of
excise rebate scheme for increased production);
and, (iii) expeditious completion of
disinvestment programme and earmarking proceeds
exclusively from new infrastructure development
initiatives. As a consequence, the incremental
fiscal deficit (including now foreclosed deficit
financing route will become inevitable and
desirable.
These are
extraordinary times and the most difficult phase
of transition in the post-reforms period. In this
context, the revival of business confidence and
stock market sentiments cannot be secured through
mere liberalisation of credit and softening of
interest rates. In fact, this is no solution to
break the bind of deepening demand deflation. The
supply-side equation of macro situation warrants
a Keynesian mode of fiscal expansion (including
the printing of currency), howsoever unpalatable
this may be to the fiscal purist. This short-term
strategic response needs to be supported by the
long-pending medium-term structural adjustment
reforms that everybody is clamouring for. INAV
.
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