India's Afghanistan option
Engage Talibans Through Northern Alliance

By Maj Gen V K Madhok (Retired)

Three issues need investigation before determining as to India's stakes in Afghanistan and what action New Delhi can take? These being: US interests? Secondly, Pakistan's involvement and its overall purpose? Thirdly, UN sponsored peace talks and whether these will succeed? But first, a few facts and the prevailing situation.

With UN sanctions-resulting from a US sponsored resolution, slapping an embargo on arms deals and trade with Taliban ruled Afghanistan, freezing of their assets in foreign countries and boycotting air flights operated by the Taliban Government in place, the ousted Government of Rabbani (Northern Alliance) fighting Talibans seems to be well placed.

But it can succeed only provided it gets effective logistic and military support. As mere talks of assisting the peace process by Iran, Russia, India and Tajikstan wont help. Besides, Pakistan which has recognised the Taliban regime (alongwith Saudi Arabia and the UAE) continues to aid Talibans with weapons, equipment and regular military units across its porous border with Afghanistan. These violations cannot be checked in the absence of a UN border monitoring mechanism.

Russia, which withdrew its 1,15,000 troops from Afghanistan on Feb 15,1989 after a humiliating failure has already banned the sale of arms and spares to Talibans by its individual and state establishments. It has ordered seizure of Bin Laden's assets who is reportedly financing the Chechen rebels. Besides, it is deeply concerned about the influx of Afghan refugees in Tajikstan-its southern neighbour. Note: That the Americans had poured in massive arms aid and other military hardware to train Mujahideen from bases in Pakistan. These helped equip Talibans and the many militant outfits who are now fighting in Kashmir.

Today, the situation is that according to a briefing given by Ahmed Shah Masood, the daring military commander of Northern Alliance, to the member of European Parliament at Paris and Brussels last month, Talibans control only 70% and not 90% of the country. That he will be soon setting up diversionary bases to engage Talibans who are getting ready to launch a spring offensive.

US does not recognise the Taliban regime. Yet it is riding two horses: While it asked Rabbani to withdraw his mission from the US, it did not permit Talibans to establish diplomatic relations. Washington's interests centre around the rich oil and gas resources of Turkmenistan and other a CA Republics. Negotiations to lay two pipelines - 1456 Kms each, 800 Kms of which pass through Afghanistan have been on for the last 6-8 years. But the oil companies negotiating offered huge share of profits. Besides, US wants a regime in Kabul which is hostile to Iran. It wants to keep the a CA Republics -rich in oil, gas and other resources, away from Russia. It looks for a buffer zone in northern Afghanistan. And as such , the emphasis and thrust is on setting up a broad based government old. Finally, US wants Bin Laden who master-minded two explosions in US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in Mid 1998. Washington had gone to the extent of positioning an elite commando unit on its Saudi Arabian base to nab Bin Laden. But the 45 years old always on the move. So far, he has defied capture.

As regards Pakistan, it was Pakistan which sponsored Talibans (nearly 8000) after training in the seminaries of Baluchistan. They were moved to fill the vacuum and bring stability to Pakistan's strife torn northern neighbour. Having crossed the borders in 1994, they swept the country by 1996. But they have not yet succeeded in establishing control. They are militarily dependent on Islamabad. US is therefore right when it says that Pakistan exercises a great deal of influence over them. Pakistan has made offers to mediate. But the Northern Alliance has rejected the offer. It wants Pakistan to first stop aiding Talibans or their assistance will serve on purpose. But Pakistan denies this allegation. Today, there are nearly two million refugees in Pakistan. After the Kargil to Afghanistan to fight the Northern Alliance.

Pakistan lacks strategic depth. A Taliban ruled Afghanistan will provide that. This therefore is a cardinal issue of interest to Pakistan. Besides, Islamabad intends to build roads and railways to CA Republics to enable them to transport their resources through Afghanistan to Pakistan's ports. In addition, Pakistan can locate its reserves, airfields, depots and what not in Afghanistan on the basis of a strategic partnership with a friendly regime in Kabul. The only threat it faces is the spill-over of radical Taliban fundamentalism in Pakistan which could engulf it in violence.

So far as India is concerned, the destruction of historic Buddha statues at Bamiyan and elsewhere had drawn adverse response- though mild, in India and elsewhere. On his Id Day message at Jama Masjid, Delhi on Mar 12,2001 the Shahi Imam term the incident as a retaliation to demolition of Babri Masjid. Two days later, sensing adverse reaction in India, the Taliban Foreign Minister Muttawakil reminded New Delhi not to forget, that it was the Taliban Government which had prevailed on the hijackers at Kandhar to release the plane. That normally, India should have handled the situation as the plane had first landed in India at Amritsar.

But Afghanistan is important to India. It cannot afford to let Afghan mercenaries join the militants in Kashmir. Concurrently, Kabul is unhappy with India as New Delhi kept completely quiet when the Russian invaded Afghanistan and now the Northern Alliance embassy continues to function at New Delhi while the Master have changed at Kabul.

A stable, well governed Afghanistan which does not take sides is essential for New Delhi. Today, efforts are on to shore-up Northern Alliance against Talibans by Russia, Iran , India and Tajikstan. A Fundamentalist regime in Kabul, in full control of the country, will surely divert men and material to boost Pakistan supported Proxy war in Kashmir. Thus further straining India's already over-stretched ,military capability. US wants to contain Itan, diffuse Russian stronghold on the CA Republics and to use oil and gas resources of CA Republics. But it is hard put to deal with the Talibans in view of their pathetic human rights record. Thus there can be no peace in Afghanistan in the near future. Accordingly, India is left with no option but to keep the Talibans engaged effectively by supporting the Northern Alliance by overt and covert means. If that does not happen, Indian security forces should be prepared for fierce battles with Talibans in Kashmir as well as at the Indo-Pak border.

Rural Economic growth gets a boost

By Dr Navin Chandra Joshi

The Union Budget for 2001-2002 can truly be said as a programme for sustainable rural development that takes care of not only substantial growth in agriculture and other allied sectors, but also in fulfilling the social needs of the rural people by revving up the sagging level of investment in India's rural economy, among other things.

For the poor, the Budget has touched upon the much-needed empowerment of unorganised labour, infrastructural facilities, increased in house building activities and more industrialisation in India's villages.

For poverty alleviation programmes, Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha had announced in the last year's budget the launching of a new scheme, the "Pradhan Mantri Gramodays Yojana" with the objective of undertaking time-bound programmes to fulfill critical needs of the people in rural areas. A sum of Rs. 5,000 crore was provided for in the budget.

Out of this sum, Rs. 2,500 crore was earmarked for launching a nationwide programme for constructing rural roads and for improving rural connectivity. The Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana was launched by the Prime Minister on December 25, 2000. Under the new Budget, Rs. 2,500 crore have been provided while 50 per cent of the diesel cess has been earmarked for development of rural roads.

The Finance Minister has made a plaintive note by saying that even after 50 years of planned development, there are still about 80,000 villages which do not have access to electricity. Therefore, a package of initiatives will be launched to improve the power distribution system in rural areas. This would include completion of electrification of bulk of the remaining villages in the next six years, apart from other financial incentives to state electricity boards.

For development of rural infrastructure, it is well-known by now that the Rural Infrastructure Development Fund (RIDF), set up in 1995-96, managed by the NABARD, has emerged as an important scheme for financing rural infrastructure projects of the state governments. The scope of RIDF has been widened to allow lending to Gram Panchayats, Self-Help Groups, NGOs and other eligible organisations for implementing village-level infrastructure projects.

A micro finance development fund has also been set up in NABARD with contribution of Rs 40 crore each by NABARD and R.B.I. This fund will provide start up funds to micro finance institutions and infrastructure support for training and systems management and data building to promote rural micro units.

In the realm of the cooperative sector, the Budget recognises the crucial role of cooperatives for credit in rural areas but at the same time it has been said that over time, problems have developed mainly because of excessive bureaucratisation and the overlapping jurisdiction of State Government and the NABARD.

Some state government have already taken legislative action to promote genuinely cooperative institution. For rural credit, clear delineation of the supervisory role of the RBI / NABARD on banking matters is also essential. To promote these two prerequisites for a more vibrant rural cooperative credit system, a fund will be created in the NABARD.

In the matter of rural banking, the reform measures initiated last year to strengthen and restructure the RRBs will continue in 2001-2002, while over 160 RRBs are posting operating profits at present. To augment the flow of credit for food and ago-processing industries, lending by banks to them has already been treated as priority sector lending. Out of these 160 RRBs, 50 RRBs have been able to wipe out their accumulated losses. In view of the importance of the RRBs in rural financing, the Budget states that the programme of strengthening the RRBs is to be continued.

With the development and modernisation of agricultural practices, the Budget recognises that there is need to augment support and extension services for agriculture. For this purpose, a scheme for setting up Agriculture and Agri-business Centres by agricultural graduates will be launched with the support of NABARD.

In the scheme for giving support to unorganised farm labour, a kind of social security measure has been mooted. Besides, a special scheme for landless agricultural labourers, the Khetihar Mazdoor Bima Yojana will provide benefits of insurance cover like it is given under the Janashree Bima Yojana. Moreover a pension of Rs 100 per month will be given to the beneficiaries on attaining the age of 60 years. The wage ceiling have also been enhanced for workers.

Any scheme of rural development has to take oare of the lot of the youth in our countryside. As a result of provisions in earlier budgets, all existing self-employment schemes, addressed to different target groups such as PMRY, IRDP, NRY, etc,. were reoriented to provide skill-based training entrepreneurship development and subsidy-linked bank credit to youth for empowering them to start viable small businesses.

Employment Assurance Scheme is being implemented at the district/block levels, with the selection of works being decided by the Zila Parishads in consultation with the other elected representatives.

To ensure that the funds under the wage employment schemes are spent with the active involvement of the elected Panchayati Raj institutions, while 80 per cent of funds are released to implementing agencies as per normal procedure, the remaining 20 per cent is released as an incentive only if the State has put in place elected and empowered Panchayati Raj institutions.

The major objective of any budget for rural development should be to reconstruct and develop the rural economy in such a way that income from the ownership of productive assets, skills and labour would be automatically distributed more equitably. The current budget for 2001-2002 has spelt out several steps in this direction.

All said and done, unless the basic needs of the rural population are met, people may not respond well to any kind of assistance even through they are for the benefit of rural development as a whole. The state governments should pay special attention to the organisation and administrative structure at various levels to utilise the plan funds more efficiently and productively. More than anything else, the government must see to it that funds meant for the rural poor do reach them fully and timely. PTI Feature