EDITORIAL
LAST CHANCE
Governor of J&K State
Girish Chander Saxena does some plain speaking about
current status of terrorism and the futuristic threat
perceptions in terms of global ramifications. For this
State he makes it amply clear that extension of truce by
three months until May 31 is the last chance for
fundamentalist and terrorist groups to 'fall in line' or
face very tough action. Suspension of combat operations
is no lincense for these forces of mayhem and anarchy to
go on killing-spree. Combat operations are on hold so
that peace gets a fair chance. The mood of the people is
in favour of peace and rejection of violent-culture. This
stands manifested abundantly from the happy crowds on
shopping spree in the State making their buy for the Eid
festival. These crowds have been unprecedented and even
women folks and children have ventured out. This is the
healthiest sign and message to the mercenaries and their
proteges in the State that they must cease violence
forthwith and allow the hapless citizens to breathe
freely and in peaceful environs. Even the Hurriyat
leadership is no more inclined to support the cause
propounded by Pakistan through sponsorship of
mercenaries. Some Hurriyat leaders want these
blood-hounds withdrawn from the State by Pakistan so that
people can sort out their problems unhindered and
undeterred by gun-culture. The intelligentsia too is in
favour of peace. Suspension of combat operations has thus
to be viewed in the correct perspective. Governor Saxena
minces no words when he says that security forces has the
capabilities to get tough. The message for these imported
gun-wielders is to 'fall in line' or face the might of
security forces. There is also the message that
suspension of combat operations (often referred as
ceasefire) is not for ever and that these terrorists have
the last chance to become sane, civilised and responsive
to the mood of the people while the going is good.
During address to
International Association of the Chiefs of Police in
Delhi Governor Saxena has also delved into futuristic
threat perceptions. He makes mention of nuclear and
chemical weapons falling in the hands of fundamentalists
and terrorists. It is an awful thought that calls for
very close interaction amongst various countries which
are in a position to neutralise such threats. In fact,
Osama bin Laden, the billionaire terrorist from Saudi
Arabia presently operating from the safety of outlawed
Taliban regime in Afghanistan did mention this aspect of
aquiring chemical and nuclear arsenals. CIA briefings to
American Congress also speak of such threats assuming
definite shape before long. This is so because nuclear
and missile technologies are falling in rogue hands or
rogue States who are known to be breeding grounds for
global terrorists. These nations are Iran, Libya,
Afghanistan, Sudan, Pakistan. The suppliers are mostly
China and North Korea besides clandestine purchases.
Pakistan has already acquired around 30 nuclear bomb. It
is worth mentioning that some days back there were
reports that fundamentalist outfits in Pakistan have not
allowed shifting of such nuclear and missile arsenals to
'safer places'. This means they are keeping in an eye on
the movement of such deadly weapons. In fact, there is
real danger that such weapons could fall in the hands of
global terrorist outfits like Lashkar-e-Toiba,
Jaish-e-Mohammad, Al Qaida Osama's outfit, Hizbullah etc.
The danger of such weapons falling in rogue hands is very
much there. Much more dangerous is the prospect of these
terrorist outfits actually using them because they do not
come under any international safeguards or treaties. It
stands further elucidated in as much as Pakistan ruler
Gen Musharraf has expressed his difficulties in reining
in terrorist outfits operating from Pak soil. Obviously,
once such weapons of mass destruction be it chemical,
biological or nuclear fall in their hands they could play
havoc with mankind.
Governor Saxena is thus
right on course when he mentions closer interaction
amongst forces of civilised countries for combating such
futuristic threats. It may be mentioned if India is not
safe, so is USA. In the recent past these terrorists have
inflicted substantial damage on US interests worldwide.
They blasted two embassies in Kenya and Tanzania which
consumed more than 300 lives, including many Americans.
Earlier, they had blasted World Trade Centre in New York.
Very recently, ship berthed at Yemen port was blasted
killing 18 American service-men. Aghast with such attacks
on American interest worldwide US closed down many
embassies and consulates. Great Britain too has woken up
from hibernation and imposed ban on many terrorists
outfits having their bases/operations in UK. Russia to
has paid heavy price in Chechenya because predecessor
regimes did not take substantial action. Incidentally
breeding ground for global terrorism are in countries
where fundamentalists rule the roost. The futuristic
threat perceptions are ably highlighted by Governor
Girish Saxena who is a former RAW Chief. It may be
mentioned that he also headed the Task force on
Intelligence constituted by GoM which in turn has already
submitted its 137 page recommendations to Prime Minister
for cabinet approval. It is possible that threat
perceptions now mentioned at the IACP meet in Delhi have
also found mention in his recommendations to the GoM. It
is said that 'forewarned is forearmed'. It is upto Indian
security managers and ruling clan to read between the
lines correctly and revamp the system on the theme, ''A
stitch in time saves nine''.
NODAL AGENCY
There is the imperative
need of establishing nodal agency by the Government for
mainly addressing to the students problems. Be they
school children or College students or University
scholars. Be they from professional colleges like
Medical, Engineering and Agricultural streams. Student is
a student. It is loudly repeatedly by the rulers that
youths are the future. In fact, future lies in their
hands. There are homilies and sermons galore on imbibing
nationalism and discipline. All this is fine. They are
not only the future but also the present. The tragedy is
'present' is ignored and stress is on 'future'. It is the
present that calls for compassion, understanding and
sympathetic approach by the powers that be. It is wrong
to assume that students have no problems. In fact, they
have problems many times more than other categories of
people. They remain under constant stress of preparing
too much in too little time. They also have to be
bothering about the Damocle's sword of exams. They have
to play safe on the domestic front as well lest they
should lose the pocket money, whatever it be. In
addition, instead of listening to their problems and
solving them, they are forced to resort to agitational
means. It is a tragedy of modern governance that they go
by the theme of 'mother does not give milk unless the
child cries'. No wonder these very students are on the
streets, provoked to the brim due to inaction. The very
fact that even girl students have come to the fore shows
the magnitude of hurt and wrong done to the student
community i.e. youths by the recalcitrant rulers. The
latter is habitually inclined to aggravate the situation
instead of finding viable solution to their grievances.
Be it the shortage of staff, absence of labs and
libraries, lack of sport facilities, absence of power
supply or the challenge to their career prospects like
the PRIME admissions to Govt Medical Colleges, there is
urgency to establish nodal agency so that problems of
students are constructively and expeditiously addressed
by the powers that be. This insurgency-infested State can
ill afford the luxury of unrest particularly amongst the
student community. It is exactly in the light of the
above that Jammu University should view the demands of
the students for the ensuing exams so that some way can
be found out to help them because of loss of academics
for over two months due to prolonged unrest and
agitation.
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SPOTLIGHT
Pak Madrasa
Haqqania for Kashmir war
Tanzeemul
Ikhwan opposes Hindus’ return to
Valley
From B L
Kak
A new
threat has emerged for the advocates of
re-settlement of Kashmiri Hindu migrants
in the Valley. Having come, as it did,
from Pakistan’s Tanzeemul Ikhwan,
the threat, experts have warned, should
not be under-estimated or ignored.
Why this
kind of threat? It is the product of the
stand taken by Tanzeemul Ikhwan to send
hundreds of ‘fighters’ to
Kashmir to preserve its distinct Islamic
character "with no kafir
getting even an inch of land in the land
of Islam".
"The
land of Kashmir is exclusively meant for
the Muslims of Kashmir. Kafirs,
such as Kashmiri Pandits and other
Hindus, have no place in this land of
Muslims", asserts the Tanzeemul
Ikhwan in a recently-printed document.
And it
has warned: "If these kafirs
are found trying to return to the Valley
of Kashmir, they will be taught a lesson
which they will have to remember till
their end".
Equally
alarming is the message from
Pakistan-based Tanzeemul Ikhwan: "We
want unhindered implementation of
Sharia-that is, the Muslim legal
system-in whole of Muslim Kashmir.
Opponents of this system should be dealt
with firmly".
The
Tanzeemul Ikhwan is an Islamic movement,
reportedly enjoying moral and material
support from various Muslim sources and
organisations, including Pakistan,
Afghanistan and Saudi Arabia.
The
Tanzeemul Ikhwan is known for its
hundreds of thousands of followers. And
Pakistan’s military ruler, Gen.
Parvez Musharraf, himself has
acknowledged the organisation’s
clout and influence. Doubts, if any in
this regard, were set at rest in December
last after the organisation threatened to
take Islamabad by storm if the Government
did not implement Sharia.
Instead of
taking them on, the Musharraf Government
deputed a Minister to talk with the top
leaders of the Tanzeemul Ikhwan. After
the Minister’s persuasion, the
organisation agreed to move the deadline
for Sharia to March.
The
entire leadership of Tanzeemul Ikhwan is
drawn from retired senior Army officers.
Intelligence inputs from across the
border have confirmed that hundreds of
current officers and soldiers of Pak
military attend the Ikhwan’s
ideological training sessions. The Ikhwan
has also become a source of attraction
and inspiration,too, for a number of
retired and serving officers of the ISI
(Inter-Services Intelligence).
No wonder,
ISI’s former chief, Lt. Gen. Hamid
Gul, proclaimed the other day:
"Pakistani Army soldiers have always
been religious, but now growing numbers
of officers have turned Islamist".
Lt. Gen. Gul himself is closely
associated with Islamist groups. And he
continues to advocate Kashmir’s
separation from the Indian Union.
Tanzeemul
Ikhwan may differ with the choice of
operations employed by the
Lashkar-e-Toiba. But the two
organisations are united on one thing,
namely, increasing the number of madrasas
(religious schools). The madrasa
system, Pakistan-watchers have confirmed,
has become popular in Pakistan and
Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK),
particularly in outlying regions.
Reason:
Boys get free education, free food. And
encouraging financial incentives if they
want to fight in Kashmir. Pakistan is
reported to have more than 50,000 madrasas.
A number of them, according to
intelligence inputs, are involved in the
task of producing dedicated
"fighters". Madrasa Haqqania,
located in Peshwar sector, has already
shot in prominence.
Indeed,
this centre is associated with jihadi groups
waging war in Kashmir, Bosnia and beyond.
When the talk of administrative measures
against jihadi groups by the
military Government of Pakistan began
recently, the Madrasa Haqqania strongly
expressed itself against such a move and,
in fact, called for "immediate"
measures to intensify war in Kashmir.
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The
beleaguered soldiers
By
Joginder Kandhari
The Indian
ruling elite claims the current ceasefire
in the Valley to be a diplomatic
manoeuver to outwit the ISI mandrains and
to isolate Pakistan internationally.
Alongside, a parallel Track-II diplomacy
is on, ostensibly to complement the overt
effort. Almost a national debate has been
kicked up by the media over the isuse of
travel documents to Hurriyat leaders. On
matters pertaining internal security, we
now have a new politico-military
understanding in place whereunder Army
Chief publically recommends extension of
ceasefire before expiry of each
instalment of it. To cap it all,
Commander 16 Corps thunders an
unqualified public apology over a couple
of firing incidents and also declares
that military intelligence people have no
business to step out of their unit lines.
Much above all this din, faint echoes of
Mr Advani's proactive policy declarations
can be heard no matter if the Minister
has long eaten his own words.
Admist all
this noise, the soldier stands firm
albeit confused. No one seems to spare a
thought for him. His routine continues to
be as exacting manoeuver. His routine is
unending, may it be road opening or
defending his camp. His actions are
subject to microscopic examination both
within the organisation and without it.
Ceasefire decision seems to have fettered
him from proacting while at the same time
leaving him exposed to scathing criticism
should his camp became a target of now
fashionable 'fidayeen' attaks. He appears
caught in a serious dilemma whether to
act or not in a tight tactical situation.
If he fires at a mob pelting stones on
his convoy, protection of whch is his
duty, heavens seem to fall for we are
given to over-reaction. If he fires in
self defence on a rampaging mob, he
invites indictment in public from his own
commanders. He knows not weather to move
out of his barracks to seek information
about militants or to stay indoors to be
the butt of severe criticism for failure
to furnish timely information. For him
this schizophrenia in higher command
levels is just another militant stratagm.
Besides
fighting on ground, insurgency needs to
be countered in the mind as well.
Conventional operations are not as
delicate to handle as such campaigns
where 'enemy' seems to lurk almost
everywhere. Protracted employment in
counter insurgency duties tends to lull
soldierly faculties and it requires
utmost care and concern on part of
commanders to enliven these attributes.
Lacing a soldier with ultra modern
gadgetry alone would not be enough. He,
so to say, requires psychological
fondling in order to sharpen his decision
making skills for low intensity conflicts
are often fought at the lowest levels. He
just gets a fraction of a second to take
a combat decision. Such decisions are
vital for the success of any effort
mounted subsequently. Probability of such
a decision going wrong always exists. A
soldier does not get unnerved by any
criticism of such failures by the public
or the media as long as his commanders
stand by him. But public criticism by his
own commanders does not help his causes
at all because he does not understand
nuances of psywar granting that to be the
higher intention. All political
somersaults need to be made intelligible
to him in simple tactical language and
that is exactly what commanders are
supposed to do. True, this is not an easy
job but all the same it has to be done
and done well especially when the
military leadership too vacillates as
violently as the political class.
For our
military leadership importance of man
behind the gun in insurgency environment
needs no reiteration. The soldier may not
ask many questions but he is intelligent
enough to discern paucity of ideas at the
highest decision making levels. He
quietly seeks answers to all pervasive
ambiguity about his role in the Valley
and his commanders have a moral
responsibility to clear it.
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What
hinders non-proliferation
By Satyabrata Rai Chowdhuri
Eyebrows were
raised when the final declaration of the
Millennium Summit of the United Nations, held in
September, did not mention a word about the
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), a treaty
second in size only to the UN Charter. According
to sources, serious disagreement erupted among
the members of the Drafting Committee when the US
representative was most insistent on having the
NPT prominently mentioned in the Final
Declaration. But he was opposed by the majority
of members of the committee. A disappointed US
representative reportedly left the Committee room
saying, ''Yes, now I realize the treaty has lost
much of its relevance.''
This reminds one
the concluding lines of Earnest Hemingway's novel
'The Sun Also Rises' where the heroine bids
farewell to her male friend and remarks that
things could have been better. ''Yes'', he
replies, ''Isn't it pretty to think so ?'' At the
end of the 20th century, those words could serve
as the epitaph for the Treaty on the
Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).
For thirty years,
the NPT was the centre of the nuclear
non-proliferation debates. Since the 1995 NPT
review and Extension Conference, however, the
Treaty has lost not only much of its relevance
but also its credibility. In one sense, it has
fallen victim to its successful indefinite and
unconditional extension. Its temporary nature a
key provision when it was negotiated in the late
1960s and throughout the first four review
conferences--ceased in 1995. The five-year
reviews, now supposedly enhanced and more
action-oriented, are today of little interest to
the nuclear - weapon states (NWS). They have what
they wanted in 1970 but only obtained in
1995-locking the non-nuclear weapon states (NNWS)
into a permanent legal instrument. Vertical
proliferation is in the exclusive hands of the
NWS. In another sense, the NPT has outlived its
usefulness as a horizontal non-proliferation tool
since all NNWS with nuclear aspirations have
joined the Treaty.
Few will challenge
the assessment that the prospects for genuine
nuclear disarmament are now far worse than a
decade ago. The reason for this sad state of
affairs range from broad political, economic and
social questions to the specific attitudes of the
governments most directly involved.
Despite the end of
the Cold War, NATO's nuclear stance, as
reiterated at its 50th anniversary summit, has
not changed. As the Kosovo intervention proved,
it is no longer a purely defensive organisation.
It is now ready to operate ''beyond the Allies'
territory'' and will continue to rely on nuclear
weapons. Its first-use posture is gaining in more
support as Alliance membership expands.
The Russian
Federation has also espoused that doctrine. Of
similar concern is the trend that NATO nuclear
doctrine has also began to influence the non-NATO
members of the European Union (EU). In their
quest for a common foreign policy, once neutral
EU members such as Austria and especially Finland
are moving very close to their EU NATO partners.
Javier Solana, NATO's former Secretary-General,
is now charged with developing further the EU's
common foreign and security policy and the role
of nuclear weapons is bound to play a major part
in his consultations with countries such as
Ireland and Sweden.
What can Ireland
and Sweden do? They are keen to keep their
distance from NATO. For one thing, they are the
only EU members that have supported the three
General Assembly follow-up resolutions regarding
the 1996 advisory opinion of the International
Court of Justice (ICJ) on the legality of the
threat or use of nuclear weapons, one of the most
important events since the 1995 NPT conference.
For another, they are among the eight initiators
of the New Agenda Coalition's proposal to pursue
nuclear disarmament. Despite the New Agenda's
modest content, NATO rejected it. With the
exception of Denmark, Iceland and Norway, NATO
members have also vigorously opposed all
resolutions relating to the ICJ's advisory
opinion. So much for the rule of law.
What can other
countries do? Not much, it seems. Although the
leaders of many countries speak publicly about
the need to eliminate nuclear weapons, they are
relatively quiet about this issue when they meet
in private with their NWS counterparts. They are
obviously more interested in other items of their
bilateral agendas.
The main obstacle
to nuclear non-proliferation is, therefore, the
attitude of the NWS governments. The challenge is
great. Only governments can negotiate treaties
and those of the NWS do not seem ready to embark
on a course of genuine nuclear non-proliferation
leading to the total elimination of nuclear
weapons.
United Nations
General Assembly resolutions have no impact on
their mind-set. The opinion of the ICJ makes
them, and many of their allies, uncomfortable but
not enough to change their policy. They can see
the vital importance of defending just causes and
preventing the massive violation of human rights.
They are moved to promote reconciliation and
peace processes in such places as Northern
Ireland and the Middle East. They call for a more
secure and peaceful world. And they insist on
retaining nuclear weapons despite what it means
in terms of proliferation. When it comes to
Israel, the NWS opt for a double standard on
non-proliferation and ignore the basic question.
When Inda and
Pakistan conducted a round of Nuclear tests in
1998, the NWS reacted by repeating the same old
line of ''do as I say and not as I do''. They
refuse to accept the ground realities in the
subcontinent and think that they can wish away
the nuclear weapons of those two states. At their
behest, the Security Council called on India and
Pakistan to join the NPT as NNWS. Or take their
attitude to the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty
(CTBT). The USA, for example, urges India and
Pakistan to sign a treaty it has not yet ratified
itself.
The 1995 NPT
review and Extension Conference neatly divided
the last decade of the 20th century. And it was
there, at that conference, that the NNWS parties
surrendered. In matters nuclear, the NPT as a
disarmament tool ended in 1995 and gave way to a
different, irrelevant and stillborn NPT.
All this shows
that perhaps it is time to do away with the
automacity of NPT review conferences. They do not
lead to much. And the few results obtained could
be achieved elsewhere and at a lower financial
cost. Each review conference is preceded by a
long preparatory process that concentrates on
organisational matters, leaving substantive
issues to the conferences themselves where
discussions centre on the nuclear disarmament
provisions.
At each review
conference the goal has been to reach agreement
on a common assessment of how the NPT is being
implemented by its parties. But agreement is by
consensus (which any party can block) and thus
reflects on the lowest common denominator. One of
the mysteries regarding the NPT is how the
parties agreed to work by consensus at the review
conferences while the extension decision was to
be taken by a simple majority. Review conferences
have become a drafting exercise where the
crafting of a document becomes paramount and
wordsmithing replaces serious negotiations and
serves to paper over differences.
The situation
regarding the non-proliferation of nuclear
weapons is today much more complicated than it
was ten or twenty years ago. The technology for
their manufacture has been improving and what was
once the monopoly of one, later two, three and
eventually seven nations has now become
accessible to many. What you invent today to
enhance your security has a tendency to reappear
later elsewhere as a threat. The development of
different and more sophisticated weapons and
weapon systems. They seem to offer security until
they are developed by others. The cycle then
repeats itself. It then follows that the NPT
regime is in need of serious collective
rethinking. Perhaps this will lead nowhere but it
must be attempted.
PTI Feature
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Jaswant
Singh visits Myanmar
Much delayed effort to engage Yanghon
By. Maj Gen V K Madhok
(Retd)
No important
political leader has visited Myanmar in the last
13 years, During this period of New Delhi's
isolation, the Chinese have expanded their
influence and it is rightly said, that Myanmar's
foreign policy is being drafted in Beijing. The
significance of this country which is really
India's strategic eastern flank and shares a 1600
Km (approximately) long border with the sensitive
states of AP, Nagaland, Manipur and Mizoram (also
Bangladesh) has been lost over the years. Yet it
was in Myanmar (erstwhile Burma) that Indian
troops fought many a battle under Indian and
British leadership against the Japanese in the
Second World War. Names like Wingate's Raiders,
Slim, Irrawady and Chindwin bring back many vivid
memories of Indian soldier's deeds. Burma
campaign was prescribed as a study for entrance
examination to India's Staff College. Yet India
kept itself away from its neighbour for reasons
difficult to explain.
Therefore, Indian
Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh's visit to Myanmar
from Feb. 12,2001 alongwith a large delegation
consisting of representatives from the bordering
eastern states as well as from foreign and
defence ministries, though much delayed, is a
beginning. The point to note is, that
Indo-Myanmar interaction should not end with the
opening of Road Tamu-Kalewa, now that the
Government has gained the necessary political
mileage from its inauguration.
There is a
perception doing the rounds that in the long run,
Myanmar-a military dictatorship, which is more or
less reduced to a Chinese satellite, with
Americans enforcing sanctions and taking other
initiatives to restore democracy in Myanmar, is
becoming a battle ground (initially with
diplomatic and economic initiatives) between the
US and China.
Accordingly, there
is an urgent need to assess as to: What is the
situation within Myanmar? What initiatives the US
is likely to take ? And how can a Sino-Myanmar
nexus (like the Sino-Pak nexus) impact on India's
seven northeastern states-connected only with a
narrow 30 Km long corridor with the rest of the
country?
Myanmar faces
several crucial issues in the immediate and
distant future. The roots of which lie in its
military's ambitions to retain supremacy. On top
of the list is Madam Suu Kyi, leader of the
National League of Democracy and Military Juntas
Betanoir. She wants the military to quit.
Therefore She continues to remain the chief
obstacle to SLORC's (State Law and Order
Restoration Council) now renamed as SPDC (State
Peace and Development Council) future ambitions.
From amongst the
remaining issues one could choose: The continuing
insurgency and pro-democracy movements inside
Myanmar. The threat of an election under
international or UN supervision, redrafting of
the constitution to enable the military to retain
a tight grip on the country, foreign pressures
and stern criticism of human rights violations.
Therefore, while the military is caught
see-sawing in the process of crucial decisions
which it must take to meet future challenges, Suu
Kyi is kept now in-now out of house arrest and
prevented from conducting any party work.
Madame Suu Kyi
will be completing an eleven year internment in
July 2001 with periodic reprieves. The SPDC has
yet to decide whether to charge sheet her or to
set her free. She has been given an option to
leave Myanmar for good. But She would rather stay
on and be considered a patriot then disappearing
in exile. The sympathy of the outside world
clearly lies with Her-the winner of 1991 Nobel
Prize for peace. Since then, other Nobel Prize
winners have made fervent appeals for her
release. In case, the SPDC releases here and lets
her stay on in the country, She will again become
the focus of a pro-democracy movement which the
military will find difficult to contain. And
therefore this remains a genuine worry for the
SPDC.
On the other hand,
the military has been becoming stronger. With a
State controlled media stringent laws, it has
better control over the country. Foreign ad has
been coming in. Thai, Japanese and European
businessmen have invested a lot of money to
establish hotels and other joint venture in areas
adjacent to the Golden Triangle. Myanmar's armed
forces too have been expanding with Chinese'
help. And massive arms supplies have been pursing
in from Beijing in accordance with a Sino-Myanmar
arms agreement signed in 1989. The army has
already touched half a million mark. Besides, it
will become as much dependent on Chinese defence
hardware in the future as Pakistan is today. But
the army is not free from desertions. In August
1993, eleven soldiers deserted near Manipur. They
were provided shelter by Manipur students.
This was the first
incident of its kind after the pro-democracy
uprising. It could have been dismissed as trivial
or as a routine isolated occurrence provided
there was less secrecy in free flow of
information to the outside world. Since it is not
so, one cannot rule out the reproduction of such
like incidents in the future . All this does not
lend international respectability to SPDC which
has been desperately seeking it.
Concurrently,
Madame Suu Kyi cannot come into power without
free and fair elections which cannot be held
without international and superpower support.
Therefore towards this end a personal letter from
Ex President Clinton to Suu Kyi which was
delivered to her sometime ago by the American
Ambassador and which promised full support to her
is significant.
Besides, an
Amnesty International report released sometime
ago stated that life in Myanmar was characterised
by fear, intimidation and wide spread human
rights violations. So far as drugs and narcotics
are concerned, Myanmar continues to remain the
largest producer of opium in the world. Which
alongwith other narcotics is being smuggled all
over Asia, Europe and the US. The Amercicans are
in the process of finalising their policies in
South Asia which will take concrete shape in the
coming months.
The situation in
Myanmar therefore indicates the types of issues
the US will be confronted with and for which its
foreign policy is likely to be asked. That is, to
support the democratic movement more vigorously.
Condemn human rights violations, combat drug and
narcotic traffic and overall encourage and to
help establish a regime which is sympathetic
towards its foreign policy goals. Finally, to
neutralise Chinese' influence.
India should
therefore be prepared to see fresh initiatives by
the US, specially to tackle those issues which
concern the restoration of democracy. One of
these is the visible friendly relations-US it
trying to establish with Myanmar's neighbour
Bangladesh. Further, US sees a role for India in
its foreign policy and considers India as the
centre of gravity in South Asia. At an
appropriate time, alongwith support from various
Noble Prize winners and their countries, there is
likely to be pressure on SPDC to release Suu Kyi,
let her stay on in the country and permit, her to
campaign for elections. And when that is done, to
canvass for elections under UN supervision.
Thereby exerting sufficient pressure on the
military to abide by people's verdict.
This appears to be
a tricky situation for the SPDC but that appears
to be its fate. However, the military have
embarked on a plan to prompt all this by
redrafting the constitution for which the first
convention was called in January 1994 and for
which subsequent meeting have been held.
Therefore, with this tool, the elections can be
delayed on one pretext or the other. Conversely,
should an elected government cone into power with
a popular leader like Suu Kyi, it may scrap the
constitution drafted by the military regime.
So far as
insurgency is concerned, though under control it
has not been totally eliminated. The Karens and
Kachins continue to agitate for independent
states. Although some efforts have been made by
China and Thailand to persuade the dissident
leaders to negotiate for a settlement but no
concerted results have been achieved so far. Nor
does there seem to be a final and visible
resolution of the problem in the near future.
As regards India,
after Rajiv Gandhi,'s visit to Yanghon in 1987,
the only high dignitary who visited Myanmar was
India's foreign secretary and that too only for
two days towards the end of March 1993. This
visit was followed by Indian Army and naval
Chiefs in 1994 and January 2001 respectively,
Therefore one wonders as to what are the reasons
that no Indian President, Prime Minister or even
the Foreign Minister visited Myanmar for more
than a decade: A country with which India has
really no dispute worth the name.
During Rajiv
Gandhi's visit a proposal was mooted to have more
co-operation between Indo-Myanmar armed
forces-particularly to resolve border incidents.
This made sense. In any case this was a good
starting point. But this was not followed up.
Accordingly, majority of the current problems
like the illicit drug trade, which has had
disastrous effects on the Manipur youth, the
current activities of NSCN (K), the Burmese Nagas
and the shooting down of four jawans of the Assam
Rifles by the Myanmar Army on Oct 25, 200 could
have been resolved or mitigated.
In addition, the
provision of training bases and other support to
ULFA across the border inside Myanmar, smuggling
of arms inside Mizoram and a host of other
connected activities could have been nipped in
the bud had the agreed cooperation taken place.
The greatest
challenge which India faces in the near future is
a scenario, when two military dictatorships on
India's western (Pakistan) and eastern (Myanmar)
flanks can be broughts together with tacit
support from China, under one umbrella (ISI). In
a worst case situation, it could mean a
co-ordinated second proxy war by the separatist
movement in the northeast, against the Indian
Union with bases and arms freely available in
Myanmar and Bangladesh. India's political
leadership will therefore do well to do some home
work to obviate the development of such a
possibility.
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