EDITORIAL

ELIMINATING RACISM

For more than a year, the United Nations Human Rights Commission has been making preparations for organsing the first World Conference against Racism. It isscheduled to be held in Durban from August 31 to September 7, 2001. In the words of Ms. Mary Robinson, the High Commissioner of the UNCHR," the scourge of racism, xenophobia and intolerance are difficult problems for both developed and developing countries,and there are particular issues in each region which were identified by a series of inter-governmental regional conferences and expert seminars." Racism....more

BJP AND KASHMIR

BJP’s moves on Kashmir ever since it assumed the seat of power need to be adjudged without any bias and irritation. During a short period of less than three years in the driver’s seat, the BJP leadership took several bold steps in the context of Kashmir. No steps that would match........more

WTO Vs sovereign
interests

By K Viswanatha Rao
Aim of the World Trade Organisation, WTO, of which India is a member, is to ensure free trade throughout the globe. By ....
more

The growing menace
of hazardous wastes

By Dr B K Fotedar
There are wastes and wastes everywhere. Every man notices that the different kinds of wastes go on piling around us with...
more

Expanding frontiers
of Ayurveda

By Radhakrishna Rao
Ayurveda, which literally means ''Science of Longevity'' is now gaining in popularity because of its holistic approach to tackling...
more

Systems of
conflict: Pakistan-
Afghanistan-India

By Ashok Kapur
The first option for India is to continue as before. In this case it remains in a reactive mode as before, it keeps talking about Pakistani state terrorism and .....
.more

EDITORIAL

ELIMINATING RACISM

For more than a year, the United Nations Human Rights Commission has been making preparations for organsing the first World Conference against Racism. It isscheduled to be held in Durban from August 31 to September 7, 2001. In the words of Ms. Mary Robinson, the High Commissioner of the UNCHR," the scourge of racism, xenophobia and intolerance are difficult problems for both developed and developing countries,and there are particular issues in each region which were identified by a series of inter-governmental regional conferences and expert seminars." Racism and Xenophobia came up as important items of debate at the UNCHR over several years in the past. These are considered as major and blatant violations of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Human Rights Commission has been making preparations for the global event in a systematic manner. Three regional conferences on the subject have been held so far covering South East Asia, the Middle East and Latin America. In Europe, a successful exercise for identifying the areas for discussion has been conducted. Apart from this, the NGOs and respective governments have also made their input in the shape of organising seminars, conferences and data processing. All this is contributing to the emergence of a worldwide society against racism. Therefore Durban Conference appears to be a landmark in a process that should ultimately eradicate racism from human society. However it is to be reminded that anti-racism drive is not as easy as has been imagined. Many vulnerable groups such as the Roma in Europe, those of African descent in North America, the Caribbean and Latin America and indigenous people look to the conference with keen expectation.

While the initiative taken by the United Nations Human Rights Commission is to be appreciated and supported as a matter of prime importance to the promotion of human rights, it is to be closely watched that the platform is not misused for politicising the issue. That is what sometimes happens with world conferences. Our apprehension is that some interested groups may take this opportunity to launch unjust and unwanted criticism of some governments and countries charging them with laxity in enforcing human rights. There are rumours that the ‘Dalit’ issue may be included in the list of specific cases of racism asking for a debate in the conference. This is unjust. No doubt, Indian society has inherited some evils from the past and these have to be eradicated lock, stock and barrel. But the ‘Dalit’ case has been highly politicised. Curiously, agencies and actors of foreign countries have been evincing keen interest in the activation of the community. For a couple of years in the past, the Dalits have been sending their delegations to the sessions of the UNCHR in Geneva to raise their human rights issues. Persons known for their anti-India posture approach them and patronize them. They have been distributing literature that distorts facts and mobilises public opinion in their favour. As true sons of the soil they should say what big steps the Government of India has taken and shall be taking in future to alleviate the suffering and deprivation of the Dalits. They should also speak of various favours and facilities provided to them by the Constitution of India. There is still much more to be done to bring the Dalits at par with other Indian social groups. But the policy of India-bashing at international fora is not a wise and patriotic step. Inclusion of Mr. Inder Kumar Gujral, the former Indian Prime Minister, in the Eminent Persons Group by the UN Human Rights Commissioner is a welcome decision. We are confident that in his capacity as a member of the Eminent Group, he will be able to present India’s policy on racism in a very appropriate and balanced manner.

BJP AND KASHMIR

BJP’s moves on Kashmir ever since it assumed the seat of power need to be adjudged without any bias and irritation. During a short period of less than three years in the driver’s seat, the BJP leadership took several bold steps in the context of Kashmir. No steps that would match the ones taken by BJP were ever taken by the Congress rulers over fifty yeas in the past. To begin with, Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee took the initiative of Lahore bus journey in the hope of talking to his Pakistani counterpart about restoration of peace in Kashmir and breaking the impasse. In response to Pakistan’s Kargil incursion, BJP government demonstrated its determination to react militarily as well as diplomatically forcing Pakistan to eat the humble pie. It also showed the finest quality of statesmanship by declining the permission to field commanders of crossing the LoC in Kashmir in hot pursuit. This demonstrated India’s self-confidence and observance of the principles of good neighbourliness as envisaged in the UN Charter and International Law. Thereafter came the announcement that the government had decided to declare unilateral cease-fire in Kashmir. This was in the month of Ramadhan and cease-fire was declared first for one month on experimental basis and later on was extended thrice. It had to be withdrawn only when the response from the militants was not forthcoming and they thought it was India’s weak point. More recently the offer of unconditional talks by New Delhi to all dissident groups in Kashmir including APHC is further

vindication of BJP’s sincere intentions of resolving Kashmir tangle. The Hurriyat has failed to respond to this gesture. Therefore it remains sidelined. Hopefully BJP will pursue with its agenda of resolving the Kashmir tangle and put an end to wanton bloodshed and fratricidal war. It is unfortunate that APHC has played with the sentiments of ordinary Kashmiris who want peace to prevail in Kashmir. People are fed up with militancy and want to return to normal life. It was this compulsion that prompted New Delhi to offer cease-fire and unconditional talks. There was a time when the Hurriyat spoke of only one condition for talks and that was ‘unconditional’ talks. One fails to understand why it has dragged its feet when unconditional talks were offered. That Pakistan has let it down is a matter between the Hurriyat and Pakistan on whose behest they have been carrying on their activity. World powers have no illusion about non-popularity of the APHC. Pakistan is not an exception. It is for the Hurriyat leadership to re-assess its position in the light of fast changing circumstances. The offer for unconditional talks should have been welcomed by the Hurriyat in the interests of its own survival as well as the survival of millions of others. But it has missed the bus. Though Mr. Pant has once again said that if the APHC re-examines its stand, it could be possible to talk to them. The ball is now in their court.

WTO Vs sovereign interests

By K Viswanatha Rao

Aim of the World Trade Organisation, WTO, of which India is a member, is to ensure free trade throughout the globe. By free trade is meant freedom to import and export anything, anytime.

But unimpeded imports are not an unmixed blessing. These might affect domestic manufacturers. Two methods are adopted to curb imports-levy of a high duty (in the recent past India levied more than 300 percent duty on some items) and restrictions on the importable quantity. While a complete ban is resorted to in rare cases, imposing quantitative restrictions (QRs) is the next best.

But, what is best is not what is compatible with WTO rules and regulations. Naturally therefore, India ageed to fall in line. It wanted to move in a phases and over a period of five or so years.

The WTO was unwilling to let India have its way. It insisted on lifting of restrictions in as short a time frame and in as few phases as possible. So, it was agreed, by mutual consent, to lift restrictions in two phases- the first with effect from 2000 and the second by 2001.

India, for unidentified and for some flimsy reasons, had a long list-hold your breath- of 1429 items, the import of which was quantity-wise restricted. Indian manufacturers, economist, analysts and traders felt that lifting the QRs would mean opening the flood gates to imports and that imported goods would occupy all the available shelf space at the market place.

As a response to their concern, the government announced lifting of QRs on only 714 commodities with effect from April 1, 2000. The move elicited what in journalese is called a ''cautious welcome''.

One year down the line, the fear proved to be unwarranted. The import picture is diametrically opposite to what one felt would happen.

A slight digression is warranted at this stage of the discussion on QRs to take a peep into India's imports. The Bill for non-oil imports has been declining in recent years. In the year 1998-99, the import payment was just about eight per cent more than the bill for the previous year.

In 1999-2000, the imports registered a two growth over the 1998-99 bill. Last fiscal, that is 2000-2001, was the first year of phased lifting of QRs. Yet the imports did not look up but nose-dived by around 14 per cent.

Some senior commerce ministry officials explained, rather explained away the unexpected downslide in imports thus: The Commodities, on which quantitative restrictions were lifted, were useless items. If this indeed is the case, why did the government clamp QRs on such items in the first place ?

With effect from this April, quantitative restrictions on the remaining 715 items were lifted. Again there was the fear of imports flooding the Indian market. As if in response, the Government has set up what it calls the War Room in Udyog Bhavan to keep a tab on the market trends.

A month later, in May, orders went out to allow import of 300 items- Freely, of course- only through eleven points. These designated points are the four metro airports, six seaports (Kochi, Mumbai, Nheva Sheva, Kolkata, Vizag & Chennai) the Inland Container Deport (ICD) at Tughluqabad, near Delhi.

Within a fortnight, the government withdrew the order. Why ? It was flawed in its entirety. Also the trade data for April 2001 did not show a trend different from the previous year. In fact, the imported cost of non-oil commodities was less that in April 2000.

Interesting, indeed very puzzling is the import scene. The cue to the mystery unfolded in early June. Slowly. Unpretentiously.

True, the lifting of QRs did not mean a heavy inflow of all the 1429 goods that were taken off the restricted list. What was happening instead was that some select commodities were flowing in such heavy quantity that Indian manufacturers began to cry foul aloud.

The Directorate General of Anti-dumping and Allied Duties (DGAD) looked into the phenomenon. It identified 68 cases of dumping. Chemicals and petro-chemicals topped the list with 39 cases followed by pharmaceuticals- nine, steel and other metals-eight, consumer goods (sport shoes, white cement, dry and lead acid batteries)- three cases, and other goods-nine cases.

Country-wise, China faces 41 cases of dumping, followed by European Union 21 cases. South Korea, Japan, United States, Russia and Taiwan chipped in with a case each.

Under the WTO, India can exercise its right to slap duty on the imported item to make its landing cost equal to the domestic price of a similar item. Well, this is what is called anti-dumping duty otherwise. The sole aim is protection to the Indian industry.

This protection should not become a permanent shield, though, and thereby prevent a healthy growth and development of the ability to face competition, how so ever stiff it may be.

The June experience is revealing. It shows the fears against the lifting of QRs on a thousand odd items coming true, though slowly.

Hereafter, the government, trade and the consumers have to remain alert to further dumping. The effect of these should be gauged quantitatively also and plans should be kept in place for quick, real time reaction and redressal.

Slapping anti-dumping duty is possible upto a limit. It is not among the best answers to the malady just as re-imposition of Quantitative Restrictions is not.

There no gain saying that manufacturers in India, with their rich experience of working for 53 odd years in Free India, should improve their efficiency, increase production and productivity. They should device means to reduce cost of production and undertake proper marketing.

The prevailing attitude- anything can be sold, as there is no alternative- should end. Consumers now have a choice even though it is at a price. Like in politics, in business too, there is no TINA there is no alternative-syndrome.

Besides, experience has shown that slapping anti-dumping duty is a time consuming process (Government claims that we have the fastest anti-dumping machinery in the world!). Justification for the levy should be absolute. Some times, in the time lag between a complaint and actual levy of anti-dumping duty, the damage may be so harsh that it takes a long time to repair it.

Let it be realised that protection is encouraging inefficiency. It is a national sin. Let no more sin be commited.

The available alternative - Quit WTO.
--Syndicate Features

The growing menace of hazardous wastes

By Dr B K Fotedar

There are wastes and wastes everywhere. Every man notices that the different kinds of wastes go on piling around us with the result that our environment has become completely saturated with it. Mentioning our own domestic waste at the start, we feel that the more it is cleared daily the more it gets accumulated. Domestic refuse consists of all types of junk which is haphazardly disposed off. The domestic garbage or refuse consists of woollen socks, cotton rags, aluminimum cans, plastic bags, paper bags, banana peels, glass bottles old leather shoes, tin cans, wood chips and many things more. These are presently being thrown in the open grounds, on the banks of rivers or in some isloated areas and we just for a moment think that we this way are completely getting rid of the same. But this is not true. After all the pile of this junk is stored in the environment with disastrous effects. Most of this junk is not biodegradable. The experts have found that the risks of spread of infections are connected with them. Woollen socks take one year to become biodegradable, cotton rags five months, aluminium cans 200 to 500 years, leather shoes 40 to 50 years, tin cans 40 to 50 years and wood 10 to 15 years. It can thus be easily imagined that junk of all domestic wastes cannot be so quickly disposed off for it leaves trails of infections every where.

Ragpickers (or junk collectors) run parallel to the municipalities in collection and disposal systems, but still 75 percent of the junk remains untouched in the environment. The domestic waste problem is disturbing in almost all States of India. For some time past such huge junks of waste used to be dumped in landfills at far off places from thepopulation centres. But with the rise of population the huge piles of waste generated cannot find a room for final disposal because of the fast urbanisation presently taking place. The growing population have made their entry in the uphill areas after clearing forests. In places like Bombay, the people did not been hesitate to encroach sea costs. Similarly, various Indian lakes have been encroached upon by the growing populace making room for their residential requirements. Under this changing scenario, dumping of waste in the landfills seems not to be a viable option.

Then there is another type of waste called Industrial chemical waste, which has brought many miseries to the people during the last two decades. Industrialists do not care where ooze from factories goes and how it affects land and water both. For example, on the outskirts of Ahmedabad, near the Vatva Industrial estate, a strange sight greets the visitors. Stray dogs are tinged with purple or splashed with blue or green by rambling through many yards where toxic waste is thrown. Three people burnt their feet a few years ago at Vapi dumpy yards where toxic waste was being thrown. The accidents at so many other places of India have been taking place from time to time by dumping toxic wastes from factories in the vicinity of habitations. At Deonar (Bombay's largest Municipal dump yeard workers complain of constant respiratory problems nausea and dizziness. The effects of toxic wastes spread like cancer silently and virtually remain unnoticed. +9The sad story of the wastes also is revealed in an Industrial Estate in Andhra Pradesh, Medak district, Patancheru. Untreated industrial effluents from the estate let out in the Nakkavagu drain have poisoned ground water, affecting hundred of acres of agricultural land, the drinking water of about 15 hamlets led to an increase in the diseases including cancer. The waters of Jamuna have completely become black due to dumping of domestic wastes and also the hazardous wastes from chemical units, the effluents from which directly get poured into the river. Then there is what has happened to waters of the Ganga, which has now lost both recreational and aesthetic value. Though the Ganga Action Plan has since been started, the contamination of water by the industrial units continues to be poured into it unabatingly making the waters unsafe for human consumption. Though the dimension of chemical wastes from industries is piling up in the environment, governments at the Centre and at State levels are turning a blind eye towards all this. Nor is there any system to look after the health of those working knee deep in the toxic slush. The materials of output from chemical industries feeds great many industries like plastics, paints and dyestuffs. Many States are thus thriving onthe jugernauts of industrial expansion and hence affecting the environment badly.

So is the sad story about nuclear wastes. These are causing a havoc globally. Form the very beginning of the nuclear era, these wastes have created many type of health hazards in human society. There was leak of radioactive water from 230 MW Tarapur Atomic Power Station at the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre in the year 1995. Large amounts of radioactive matter in the nuclear fuel containers, dumped by the Russian Navy more than 30 years ago were later found near the Norwegian borders. In 1997, a train carrying nuclear waste from the southern town of Walheim to Danneberg in the north of Germany triggered violent protests in several towns enroute thereby showing a great annoyance and fear of people even to hear about nuclear waste movement in any part of the globe. Residents of desert village Sonawada just a few kms from India;s Nuclear Weapon's testing site Pokhran became worried a lot. Heavy drilling has been carried out inthe area since March, 1998, ostensibly for the granite, but in all probability to make space for a nuclear waste dump site. So in India, as well as in many other countries, the disposal of nuclear waste has a great problem in itself. Similarly, other effects which became known later in Rawalbhata (a village on the eastern bank of Rana Pratap Sagar lake near Kota in Rajasthan) can be seen on reported by the experts very dreadful. Many children suffered congenital deformities since the Rajasthan Atomic Power Station came up in 1972. The people, mostly children within 10 km radius of the plant got affected. Government nuclear scientists refuse to accept the claim of plant got affected. Government nuclear scientists refuse to accept the claims of other scientists, but as far as there were no health problems before in the region, the fact cannot be ignored that radioactive emissions an surely be the main cause of creating miseries to the people as for as their health problems are concerned. The story of Jaduguda in Bihar is in no way different from Rawatbhata. The mines in and around Jaduguda contain Uranium which is being extracted from the ore. The left over tailings are poured into the ponds and thus it was found that large chunk of population got afflicted with cancer, various skin diseases, brain damage, kidney disorders, hypertension, deformities and fertility loss.

We, in general go on adding to waste and never think of disposing it out far away from the human habitation. Actually we are the real culprits. We in way tend to address environmental problems by displacing them instead of resolving them. Displacement refers to transfering the hazardous efffects of environmental degradation across space, time or media.

When communities generate too much solid waste and export it to other communities, they are displacing their problem across the space. When environmental dangers are left for future generations, it is displacement of pollution to another -- for instance when they incinerate household wastes and turn it into toxic ash, they are displacing it across media. We therefore, go on adding to pollution in various forms and in almost every instance someone else suffers. The problem is to be understood globally and not individually. We not only need to remain clean, but we have to think of keeping the whole world clean. We have also to think long term measures to keep future generations sae. Temporary adjustments would not suffice. The Government at the Centre needs to make every effort to minimise waste by recycling as has been done by Japan and Russia. Secondly the different types of wastes should be sorted and made use of as a raw material for other industries. The biggest threat, however, remains of the disposal of nuclear waste, for which hard efforts need to be taken to get rid of this menace. It presently makes us to feel as if we stand over a big atom bomb, which may explode anytime to place the whole society in trouble. The efforts in this direction are no doubt very hard to follow but have to be addressed nonethe-less.

Expanding frontiers of Ayurveda

By Radhakrishna Rao

Ayurveda, which literally means ''Science of Longevity'' is now gaining in popularity because of its holistic approach to tackling ailments and restoring health. This ancient Indian health care system eliminates the factors that cause ailments taking both the internal and external environment of the human body into consideration. In contrast the allopathic medicine lays stress on the symptomatic suppression of the ailments.

Ayurveda which traces its origin to Atharvaveda makes use of the herbal medicine, dietetics, body work, surgery, psychology and spirituality. Some of the chronic and degenerative diseases, not otherwise curable are known to respond to Ayurvedic treatment. Says a physician at the Kottakal Arya Vaidya Sala, ''We are well known for our treatment of rheumatism, arthiritis, paralysis, spondylitis skin and degenerative diseases.''

Against this backdrop, it is little surprising that vigorous efforts are being made to preserve and promote the Ayurvedic heritage in its varying dimensions. In a major development, the Dept of Indian System of Medicine and Homeopathy has finalised a plan to provide information on 35,000 ayurvedic preparations in a digital format intelligible to the researchers across the world. The objective of this digital library is to avert the risk of presumptuous patenting by foreign firms of non original inventions about the Indian herbal medicinal substances.

In yet another development, the tribal group of Kanis, inhabiting the forest stretches of Western Ghats in southern Kerala have been awarded a patent for a herbal medicine for treating diabetes. Now efforts are on to bag an international patent for this unique medicine named Chembaravalli from the office of Patent Cooperation Treaty at Geneva. This anti diabetic compound considered safe and effective is derived from the roots of Humboldita Decurrens. The tribal group has been using it to treat diabetes and certain allergies for many years now. Tests at the Regional Research Laboratory (RRL) in Thiruvananthapuram have shown that Chembaravalli is capable of reducing blood sugar level by as much as 51%.

In another related development, the Bangalore City Corporation under the World Bank aided India Population Project for Urban Poor will take the benefits of ayurveda to an estimated one million slum dwellers in the city. As part of this a number of herbal gardens have been raised in vacant plots in and around Bangalore.

This scheme would give the slum dwellers access to inexpensive remedies for common ailments and restore to them tradition which is a part of their ethos.

In keeping with the changing times, Ayurvedic institutions are busy striving to expand their reach and create consumer base by establishing state of the art production centres, advanced centres of learning and well equipped nursing homes. For instance, the well known Arya Vaidya Sala has entered into a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) in New Delhi for developing modern standards for its products and processes. But then the problem is that the proposed Biodiversity legislation may deprive the ayurvedic research centres access to the rich herbal wealth thriving in the forest stretches of India. As such, this legislation should include a clause allowing ayurvedic centres selective access to the botanical riches of the Indian forests.

PTI Feature

Systems of conflict: Pakistan-Afghanistan-India

By Ashok Kapur

The first option for India is to continue as before. In this case it remains in a reactive mode as before, it keeps talking about Pakistani state terrorism and about the role of foreign mercenaries in Kashmir. It can continue to try to make its case in international fora, including the Arab and Islamic councils and the UN. It can keep trying to prevent Pakistan from internationalishing Kashmir and it can keep trying to discourage the US from mediating in kashmir. At the same time, the Indian armed forces can remain engaged with various Kashmiri groups in a search for political solution in the belief that Kashmir is a serious internal Indian political problem. The problem with this option is that it keeps Indian diplomacy as well as military policy tied to the actions of Pakistan, Kashmiri militant groups, the UN, the US, and the initiative to raise the level of violence and to define the agenda lies with forces outside India. This option leaves India permanently in a reactive mode.

In the second option, India recognises that if a power vacuum emerges in Pakistan because of its inability to develop a meaningful democratic process along with economic and social reforms, then a fractured or broken up Pakistan would make it the cockpit of many rivalries and ambitions. Pakistan is not a nation, it is a land with many 'regional nations' : Baluch, Sindhi, Mohajir, Pathan ad Punjabi. Pakistan is a case study of acute ethnic conflict where social conflict is easily militarised. The 1971 Bangladesh precedent showed how lack of political accommodation enabled the Punjabi-Bengali cultural conflict to get militarised which led to separation. Ethnic conflict may be studied from three angles : (a) as the Cold War and bipolarity died, the discipline of East-West bloc solidarity was lost, and ethnic-religious conflicts gained salience; (b) ethnic and religious conflicts show the skill of strong political personalities and institutional forces to mobilise masses and salient groups for a popular cause; (c) ethnic and religious conlict is an inevitable result of nation-building and political accommodation. For India, the second approach is the most relevant because of the role of strong personalities and institutional forces in Pakistan in stimulating conflict.

The third option is risky, but it is proactive, and if successful, it would transfer the strategic and tactical initiative into Indian hands and demonstrate India's ability to set the regional agenda. It is justified by the view that if nothing is ventured or risked, nothing can be gained. It rests on the premise - which the Kargil operation validated - that Pakistan is smaller than India in geographical size, population, the scale and quality of its indusrial and technological capabilites and the size of its military establishment. But Pakistan has a strategic plan; the motivation and the organisation of resources is of high quality for the purpose of continuing the proxy war in Kashmir and in other Indian border provinces. It has a track record which is now about 15-20 years old.

On the other hand, India's pursuit of the first option reveals it to be big but not organised with an effective strategic plan that can change the attitude and behaviour of the adversary. The first option is a failed option. It is costly for India in terms of financial costs, human suffering, military casualties and the effect on military morale, vulnerability of the government to domestic controversy and international pressures, and above all it is a no win situation : the adversary has the initiative to raise the ante and time the escalation to its interests and calculations. It leaves India tied to Pakistani jihad.

The second option is more dangerous than the Bangladesh operation in 1971 because West Pakistan is in proximity to Iran, Afghanistan, China, and the iterests of the US, Russia, China, India, Iran and Saudi Arabia are engaged in the future of Pakistan and there are consequences for each country of internal instability in Pakistan. In the 1971 war, the military contest was between Indian and Pakistani power and India had the advantage of geographical contiguity to the military and political-psychological war theatre. Furthermore, the powers (major and minor) did not have a vital interest in East Pakistan's future as they do in the Pakistan-Afghanistan-Kashmir theatre. If India does not develop the third option (discurssed below), a situation may arise where by prologed ethnic and religious conflict in the region could reduce the new US administration (assisted by the likes of Thomas Pickering, Strobe Talbott and David Holbrook) to mount humanitarian intervention as in the case of Kosovo. In the third option, the end game is to create a situation whereby Pakistan finds it in its interest to sue India for peace rather than for India to offer concessions to Pakistan (which no Indian government can offer, and which in any case will never be enough for Pakistan's military and intelligence authorities and the jihadis). The author's premise is that the core issue is the future of Pakistan and the basis of its identity, and the core issue is whether or not Pakistan will be able to Balkanise India and cut it down to Pakistan's size.

The third option requires India to reject the American advice to Delhi to open negotiations with Pakistan. This suggestion is based on a practical issue, viz, who the negotiatiors in Pakistan are. The answer is that there is no negotiators behind Pakistani militant rhetoric and policy. There is no one in Pakistan who can deliver a compromise on terms other than the surrender of Kashmir to Pakistani authority as a first step to India's Balkanisation. So the first side of the third option for India is to reject negotiation with Pakistan. The second side is for India to explore all negotiating possibilities with Kashmiri militants, but with an awareness that Pakistan-linked and Pakistan-dependent Kashmiri groups will not negotiate because it is not in their interests to compromise; their interest lies in securing Indian concessions. So the second side is to explicitly show that India is interested in negotiating with the Kashmiris, now with Pakistan. The third side of this option is to gradually start tightening the screws of the Pakistan Army -ISI combination. Strategy is a mind game. In the third option, the Pakistani military brass and the intelligence machinery are the targets. They will recognise the value of negotiations if the costs of their policy of proxy warfare and intervention keep getting higher.

India should not respect the sanctify of the LoC since Pakistan does not. Let Indian forces cross the LoC and operate in Pakistan-held Kashmir. Let the Indian Navy continuously rernind the Karachi population (as was done during the Kargil operation) that Indian missiles which are trained on Karachi will be enough to make Pakistan a landlocked state even if the costs of an India-Pakistan war will be high; they will be higher for Pakistan with American aid. Pakistani specialists should be encouraged to war game scenario of a nuclear war - where Pakistan drops a few bombs on Delhi, the city may become the sixth or seventh buried city, the Indian leadership may be finished and the sealed order to the Indian Armed Forces would be to fight the last war with Pakistan to the finish. Only when the statistics show that five-six Pakistanis die for every Indian killed will it become clear to the Pakistani public and elite opinion that proxy warfare is not really low-cost for Pakistan. It would also show the Indian public and world opinion that the Indian Government his a strategy which raises the costs of proxy warfare and its aim is to change. contd...

Pakistan's motivation and behaviour, as America did in relation to Hitler's Germany and imperialist Japan during the Second World War. Such an option, however, requires a high degree of continuous civil-military interaction and political-military coordination. Unfortunately, this is not apparent in the behaviour of the Indian government, as the Kargil report shows. A paradigm shift in the development of civil-military-political-military plans is required to effect the efficient development of the third option, but this requires philosophical as well as organisational changes in India.INAV

 



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