EDITORIAL
ELIMINATING RACISM
For more than a year, the
United Nations Human Rights Commission has been making
preparations for organsing the first World Conference
against Racism. It isscheduled to be held in Durban from
August 31 to September 7, 2001. In the words of Ms. Mary
Robinson, the High Commissioner of the UNCHR," the
scourge of racism, xenophobia and intolerance are
difficult problems for both developed and developing
countries,and there are particular issues in each region
which were identified by a series of inter-governmental
regional conferences and expert seminars." Racism
and Xenophobia came up as important items of debate at
the UNCHR over several years in the past. These are
considered as major and blatant violations of the
Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Human Rights
Commission has been making preparations for the global
event in a systematic manner. Three regional conferences
on the subject have been held so far covering South East
Asia, the Middle East and Latin America. In Europe, a
successful exercise for identifying the areas for
discussion has been conducted. Apart from this, the NGOs
and respective governments have also made their input in
the shape of organising seminars, conferences and data
processing. All this is contributing to the emergence of
a worldwide society against racism. Therefore Durban
Conference appears to be a landmark in a process that
should ultimately eradicate racism from human society.
However it is to be reminded that anti-racism drive is
not as easy as has been imagined. Many vulnerable groups
such as the Roma in Europe, those of African descent in
North America, the Caribbean and Latin America and
indigenous people look to the conference with keen
expectation.
While the initiative taken
by the United Nations Human Rights Commission is to be
appreciated and supported as a matter of prime importance
to the promotion of human rights, it is to be closely
watched that the platform is not misused for politicising
the issue. That is what sometimes happens with world
conferences. Our apprehension is that some interested
groups may take this opportunity to launch unjust and
unwanted criticism of some governments and countries
charging them with laxity in enforcing human rights.
There are rumours that the Dalit issue may be
included in the list of specific cases of racism asking
for a debate in the conference. This is unjust. No doubt,
Indian society has inherited some evils from the past and
these have to be eradicated lock, stock and barrel. But
the Dalit case has been highly politicised.
Curiously, agencies and actors of foreign countries have
been evincing keen interest in the activation of the
community. For a couple of years in the past, the Dalits
have been sending their delegations to the sessions of
the UNCHR in Geneva to raise their human rights issues.
Persons known for their anti-India posture approach them
and patronize them. They have been distributing
literature that distorts facts and mobilises public
opinion in their favour. As true sons of the soil they
should say what big steps the Government of India has
taken and shall be taking in future to alleviate the
suffering and deprivation of the Dalits. They should also
speak of various favours and facilities provided to them
by the Constitution of India. There is still much more to
be done to bring the Dalits at par with other Indian
social groups. But the policy of India-bashing at
international fora is not a wise and patriotic step.
Inclusion of Mr. Inder Kumar Gujral, the former Indian
Prime Minister, in the Eminent Persons Group by the UN
Human Rights Commissioner is a welcome decision. We are
confident that in his capacity as a member of the Eminent
Group, he will be able to present Indias policy on
racism in a very appropriate and balanced manner.
BJP AND KASHMIR
BJPs moves on
Kashmir ever since it assumed the seat of power need to
be adjudged without any bias and irritation. During a
short period of less than three years in the
drivers seat, the BJP leadership took several bold
steps in the context of Kashmir. No steps that would
match the ones taken by BJP were ever taken by the
Congress rulers over fifty yeas in the past. To begin
with, Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee took the
initiative of Lahore bus journey in the hope of talking
to his Pakistani counterpart about restoration of peace
in Kashmir and breaking the impasse. In response to
Pakistans Kargil incursion, BJP government
demonstrated its determination to react militarily as
well as diplomatically forcing Pakistan to eat the humble
pie. It also showed the finest quality of statesmanship
by declining the permission to field commanders of
crossing the LoC in Kashmir in hot pursuit. This
demonstrated Indias self-confidence and observance
of the principles of good neighbourliness as envisaged in
the UN Charter and International Law. Thereafter came the
announcement that the government had decided to declare
unilateral cease-fire in Kashmir. This was in the month
of Ramadhan and cease-fire was declared first for one
month on experimental basis and later on was extended
thrice. It had to be withdrawn only when the response
from the militants was not forthcoming and they thought
it was Indias weak point. More recently the offer
of unconditional talks by New Delhi to all dissident
groups in Kashmir including APHC is further
vindication of BJPs
sincere intentions of resolving Kashmir tangle. The
Hurriyat has failed to respond to this gesture. Therefore
it remains sidelined. Hopefully BJP will pursue with its
agenda of resolving the Kashmir tangle and put an end to
wanton bloodshed and fratricidal war. It is unfortunate
that APHC has played with the sentiments of ordinary
Kashmiris who want peace to prevail in Kashmir. People
are fed up with militancy and want to return to normal
life. It was this compulsion that prompted New Delhi to
offer cease-fire and unconditional talks. There was a
time when the Hurriyat spoke of only one condition for
talks and that was unconditional talks. One
fails to understand why it has dragged its feet when
unconditional talks were offered. That Pakistan has let
it down is a matter between the Hurriyat and Pakistan on
whose behest they have been carrying on their activity.
World powers have no illusion about non-popularity of the
APHC. Pakistan is not an exception. It is for the
Hurriyat leadership to re-assess its position in the
light of fast changing circumstances. The offer for
unconditional talks should have been welcomed by the
Hurriyat in the interests of its own survival as well as
the survival of millions of others. But it has missed the
bus. Though Mr. Pant has once again said that if the APHC
re-examines its stand, it could be possible to talk to
them. The ball is now in their court.
|
WTO
Vs sovereign interests
By K
Viswanatha Rao
Aim of the
World Trade Organisation, WTO, of which
India is a member, is to ensure free
trade throughout the globe. By free trade
is meant freedom to import and export
anything, anytime.
But
unimpeded imports are not an unmixed
blessing. These might affect domestic
manufacturers. Two methods are adopted to
curb imports-levy of a high duty (in the
recent past India levied more than 300
percent duty on some items) and
restrictions on the importable quantity.
While a complete ban is resorted to in
rare cases, imposing quantitative
restrictions (QRs) is the next best.
But, what
is best is not what is compatible with
WTO rules and regulations. Naturally
therefore, India ageed to fall in line.
It wanted to move in a phases and over a
period of five or so years.
The WTO
was unwilling to let India have its way.
It insisted on lifting of restrictions in
as short a time frame and in as few
phases as possible. So, it was agreed, by
mutual consent, to lift restrictions in
two phases- the first with effect from
2000 and the second by 2001.
India, for
unidentified and for some flimsy reasons,
had a long list-hold your breath- of 1429
items, the import of which was
quantity-wise restricted. Indian
manufacturers, economist, analysts and
traders felt that lifting the QRs would
mean opening the flood gates to imports
and that imported goods would occupy all
the available shelf space at the market
place.
As a
response to their concern, the government
announced lifting of QRs on only 714
commodities with effect from April 1,
2000. The move elicited what in
journalese is called a ''cautious
welcome''.
One year
down the line, the fear proved to be
unwarranted. The import picture is
diametrically opposite to what one felt
would happen.
A slight
digression is warranted at this stage of
the discussion on QRs to take a peep into
India's imports. The Bill for non-oil
imports has been declining in recent
years. In the year 1998-99, the import
payment was just about eight per cent
more than the bill for the previous year.
In
1999-2000, the imports registered a two
growth over the 1998-99 bill. Last
fiscal, that is 2000-2001, was the first
year of phased lifting of QRs. Yet the
imports did not look up but nose-dived by
around 14 per cent.
Some
senior commerce ministry officials
explained, rather explained away the
unexpected downslide in imports thus: The
Commodities, on which quantitative
restrictions were lifted, were useless
items. If this indeed is the case, why
did the government clamp QRs on such
items in the first place ?
With
effect from this April, quantitative
restrictions on the remaining 715 items
were lifted. Again there was the fear of
imports flooding the Indian market. As if
in response, the Government has set up
what it calls the War Room in Udyog
Bhavan to keep a tab on the market
trends.
A month
later, in May, orders went out to allow
import of 300 items- Freely, of course-
only through eleven points. These
designated points are the four metro
airports, six seaports (Kochi, Mumbai,
Nheva Sheva, Kolkata, Vizag &
Chennai) the Inland Container Deport
(ICD) at Tughluqabad, near Delhi.
Within a
fortnight, the government withdrew the
order. Why ? It was flawed in its
entirety. Also the trade data for April
2001 did not show a trend different from
the previous year. In fact, the imported
cost of non-oil commodities was less that
in April 2000.
Interesting,
indeed very puzzling is the import scene.
The cue to the mystery unfolded in early
June. Slowly. Unpretentiously.
True, the
lifting of QRs did not mean a heavy
inflow of all the 1429 goods that were
taken off the restricted list. What was
happening instead was that some select
commodities were flowing in such heavy
quantity that Indian manufacturers began
to cry foul aloud.
The
Directorate General of Anti-dumping and
Allied Duties (DGAD) looked into the
phenomenon. It identified 68 cases of
dumping. Chemicals and petro-chemicals
topped the list with 39 cases followed by
pharmaceuticals- nine, steel and other
metals-eight, consumer goods (sport
shoes, white cement, dry and lead acid
batteries)- three cases, and other
goods-nine cases.
Country-wise,
China faces 41 cases of dumping, followed
by European Union 21 cases. South Korea,
Japan, United States, Russia and Taiwan
chipped in with a case each.
Under the
WTO, India can exercise its right to slap
duty on the imported item to make its
landing cost equal to the domestic price
of a similar item. Well, this is what is
called anti-dumping duty otherwise. The
sole aim is protection to the Indian
industry.
This
protection should not become a permanent
shield, though, and thereby prevent a
healthy growth and development of the
ability to face competition, how so ever
stiff it may be.
The June
experience is revealing. It shows the
fears against the lifting of QRs on a
thousand odd items coming true, though
slowly.
Hereafter,
the government, trade and the consumers
have to remain alert to further dumping.
The effect of these should be gauged
quantitatively also and plans should be
kept in place for quick, real time
reaction and redressal.
Slapping
anti-dumping duty is possible upto a
limit. It is not among the best answers
to the malady just as re-imposition of
Quantitative Restrictions is not.
There no
gain saying that manufacturers in India,
with their rich experience of working for
53 odd years in Free India, should
improve their efficiency, increase
production and productivity. They should
device means to reduce cost of production
and undertake proper marketing.
The
prevailing attitude- anything can be
sold, as there is no alternative- should
end. Consumers now have a choice even
though it is at a price. Like in
politics, in business too, there is no
TINA there is no alternative-syndrome.
Besides,
experience has shown that slapping
anti-dumping duty is a time consuming
process (Government claims that we have
the fastest anti-dumping machinery in the
world!). Justification for the levy
should be absolute. Some times, in the
time lag between a complaint and actual
levy of anti-dumping duty, the damage may
be so harsh that it takes a long time to
repair it.
Let it be
realised that protection is encouraging
inefficiency. It is a national sin. Let
no more sin be commited.
The
available alternative - Quit WTO.
--Syndicate Features
|
 |
The
growing menace of hazardous wastes
By Dr B
K Fotedar
There are
wastes and wastes everywhere. Every man
notices that the different kinds of
wastes go on piling around us with the
result that our environment has become
completely saturated with it. Mentioning
our own domestic waste at the start, we
feel that the more it is cleared daily
the more it gets accumulated. Domestic
refuse consists of all types of junk
which is haphazardly disposed off. The
domestic garbage or refuse consists of
woollen socks, cotton rags, aluminimum
cans, plastic bags, paper bags, banana
peels, glass bottles old leather shoes,
tin cans, wood chips and many things
more. These are presently being thrown in
the open grounds, on the banks of rivers
or in some isloated areas and we just for
a moment think that we this way are
completely getting rid of the same. But
this is not true. After all the pile of
this junk is stored in the environment
with disastrous effects. Most of this
junk is not biodegradable. The experts
have found that the risks of spread of
infections are connected with them.
Woollen socks take one year to become
biodegradable, cotton rags five months,
aluminium cans 200 to 500 years, leather
shoes 40 to 50 years, tin cans 40 to 50
years and wood 10 to 15 years. It can
thus be easily imagined that junk of all
domestic wastes cannot be so quickly
disposed off for it leaves trails of
infections every where.
Ragpickers
(or junk collectors) run parallel to the
municipalities in collection and disposal
systems, but still 75 percent of the junk
remains untouched in the environment. The
domestic waste problem is disturbing in
almost all States of India. For some time
past such huge junks of waste used to be
dumped in landfills at far off places
from thepopulation centres. But with the
rise of population the huge piles of
waste generated cannot find a room for
final disposal because of the fast
urbanisation presently taking place. The
growing population have made their entry
in the uphill areas after clearing
forests. In places like Bombay, the
people did not been hesitate to encroach
sea costs. Similarly, various Indian
lakes have been encroached upon by the
growing populace making room for their
residential requirements. Under this
changing scenario, dumping of waste in
the landfills seems not to be a viable
option.
Then there
is another type of waste called
Industrial chemical waste, which has
brought many miseries to the people
during the last two decades.
Industrialists do not care where ooze
from factories goes and how it affects
land and water both. For example, on the
outskirts of Ahmedabad, near the Vatva
Industrial estate, a strange sight greets
the visitors. Stray dogs are tinged with
purple or splashed with blue or green by
rambling through many yards where toxic
waste is thrown. Three people burnt their
feet a few years ago at Vapi dumpy yards
where toxic waste was being thrown. The
accidents at so many other places of
India have been taking place from time to
time by dumping toxic wastes from
factories in the vicinity of habitations.
At Deonar (Bombay's largest Municipal
dump yeard workers complain of constant
respiratory problems nausea and
dizziness. The effects of toxic wastes
spread like cancer silently and virtually
remain unnoticed. +9The sad story of the
wastes also is revealed in an Industrial
Estate in Andhra Pradesh, Medak district,
Patancheru. Untreated industrial
effluents from the estate let out in the
Nakkavagu drain have poisoned ground
water, affecting hundred of acres of
agricultural land, the drinking water of
about 15 hamlets led to an increase in
the diseases including cancer. The waters
of Jamuna have completely become black
due to dumping of domestic wastes and
also the hazardous wastes from chemical
units, the effluents from which directly
get poured into the river. Then there is
what has happened to waters of the Ganga,
which has now lost both recreational and
aesthetic value. Though the Ganga Action
Plan has since been started, the
contamination of water by the industrial
units continues to be poured into it
unabatingly making the waters unsafe for
human consumption. Though the dimension
of chemical wastes from industries is
piling up in the environment, governments
at the Centre and at State levels are
turning a blind eye towards all this. Nor
is there any system to look after the
health of those working knee deep in the
toxic slush. The materials of output from
chemical industries feeds great many
industries like plastics, paints and
dyestuffs. Many States are thus thriving
onthe jugernauts of industrial expansion
and hence affecting the environment
badly.
So is the
sad story about nuclear wastes. These are
causing a havoc globally. Form the very
beginning of the nuclear era, these
wastes have created many type of health
hazards in human society. There was leak
of radioactive water from 230 MW Tarapur
Atomic Power Station at the Bhabha Atomic
Research Centre in the year 1995. Large
amounts of radioactive matter in the
nuclear fuel containers, dumped by the
Russian Navy more than 30 years ago were
later found near the Norwegian borders.
In 1997, a train carrying nuclear waste
from the southern town of Walheim to
Danneberg in the north of Germany
triggered violent protests in several
towns enroute thereby showing a great
annoyance and fear of people even to hear
about nuclear waste movement in any part
of the globe. Residents of desert village
Sonawada just a few kms from India;s
Nuclear Weapon's testing site Pokhran
became worried a lot. Heavy drilling has
been carried out inthe area since March,
1998, ostensibly for the granite, but in
all probability to make space for a
nuclear waste dump site. So in India, as
well as in many other countries, the
disposal of nuclear waste has a great
problem in itself. Similarly, other
effects which became known later in
Rawalbhata (a village on the eastern bank
of Rana Pratap Sagar lake near Kota in
Rajasthan) can be seen on reported by the
experts very dreadful. Many children
suffered congenital deformities since the
Rajasthan Atomic Power Station came up in
1972. The people, mostly children within
10 km radius of the plant got affected.
Government nuclear scientists refuse to
accept the claim of plant got affected.
Government nuclear scientists refuse to
accept the claims of other scientists,
but as far as there were no health
problems before in the region, the fact
cannot be ignored that radioactive
emissions an surely be the main cause of
creating miseries to the people as for as
their health problems are concerned. The
story of Jaduguda in Bihar is in no way
different from Rawatbhata. The mines in
and around Jaduguda contain Uranium which
is being extracted from the ore. The left
over tailings are poured into the ponds
and thus it was found that large chunk of
population got afflicted with cancer,
various skin diseases, brain damage,
kidney disorders, hypertension,
deformities and fertility loss.
We, in
general go on adding to waste and never
think of disposing it out far away from
the human habitation. Actually we are the
real culprits. We in way tend to address
environmental problems by displacing them
instead of resolving them. Displacement
refers to transfering the hazardous
efffects of environmental degradation
across space, time or media.
When
communities generate too much solid waste
and export it to other communities, they
are displacing their problem across the
space. When environmental dangers are
left for future generations, it is
displacement of pollution to another --
for instance when they incinerate
household wastes and turn it into toxic
ash, they are displacing it across media.
We therefore, go on adding to pollution
in various forms and in almost every
instance someone else suffers. The
problem is to be understood globally and
not individually. We not only need to
remain clean, but we have to think of
keeping the whole world clean. We have
also to think long term measures to keep
future generations sae. Temporary
adjustments would not suffice. The
Government at the Centre needs to make
every effort to minimise waste by
recycling as has been done by Japan and
Russia. Secondly the different types of
wastes should be sorted and made use of
as a raw material for other industries.
The biggest threat, however, remains of
the disposal of nuclear waste, for which
hard efforts need to be taken to get rid
of this menace. It presently makes us to
feel as if we stand over a big atom bomb,
which may explode anytime to place the
whole society in trouble. The efforts in
this direction are no doubt very hard to
follow but have to be addressed
nonethe-less.
|
|
Expanding
frontiers of Ayurveda
By Radhakrishna Rao
Ayurveda, which
literally means ''Science of Longevity'' is now
gaining in popularity because of its holistic
approach to tackling ailments and restoring
health. This ancient Indian health care system
eliminates the factors that cause ailments taking
both the internal and external environment of the
human body into consideration. In contrast the
allopathic medicine lays stress on the
symptomatic suppression of the ailments.
Ayurveda which
traces its origin to Atharvaveda makes use of the
herbal medicine, dietetics, body work, surgery,
psychology and spirituality. Some of the chronic
and degenerative diseases, not otherwise curable
are known to respond to Ayurvedic treatment. Says
a physician at the Kottakal Arya Vaidya Sala,
''We are well known for our treatment of
rheumatism, arthiritis, paralysis, spondylitis
skin and degenerative diseases.''
Against this
backdrop, it is little surprising that vigorous
efforts are being made to preserve and promote
the Ayurvedic heritage in its varying dimensions.
In a major development, the Dept of Indian System
of Medicine and Homeopathy has finalised a plan
to provide information on 35,000 ayurvedic
preparations in a digital format intelligible to
the researchers across the world. The objective
of this digital library is to avert the risk of
presumptuous patenting by foreign firms of non
original inventions about the Indian herbal
medicinal substances.
In yet another
development, the tribal group of Kanis,
inhabiting the forest stretches of Western Ghats
in southern Kerala have been awarded a patent for
a herbal medicine for treating diabetes. Now
efforts are on to bag an international patent for
this unique medicine named Chembaravalli from the
office of Patent Cooperation Treaty at Geneva.
This anti diabetic compound considered safe and
effective is derived from the roots of Humboldita
Decurrens. The tribal group has been using it to
treat diabetes and certain allergies for many
years now. Tests at the Regional Research
Laboratory (RRL) in Thiruvananthapuram have shown
that Chembaravalli is capable of reducing blood
sugar level by as much as 51%.
In another related
development, the Bangalore City Corporation under
the World Bank aided India Population Project for
Urban Poor will take the benefits of ayurveda to
an estimated one million slum dwellers in the
city. As part of this a number of herbal gardens
have been raised in vacant plots in and around
Bangalore.
This scheme would
give the slum dwellers access to inexpensive
remedies for common ailments and restore to them
tradition which is a part of their ethos.
In keeping with
the changing times, Ayurvedic institutions are
busy striving to expand their reach and create
consumer base by establishing state of the art
production centres, advanced centres of learning
and well equipped nursing homes. For instance,
the well known Arya Vaidya Sala has entered into
a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the
Council for Scientific and Industrial Research
(CSIR) in New Delhi for developing modern
standards for its products and processes. But
then the problem is that the proposed
Biodiversity legislation may deprive the
ayurvedic research centres access to the rich
herbal wealth thriving in the forest stretches of
India. As such, this legislation should include a
clause allowing ayurvedic centres selective
access to the botanical riches of the Indian
forests.
PTI
Feature
|
Systems
of conflict: Pakistan-Afghanistan-India
By Ashok Kapur
The first option
for India is to continue as before. In this case
it remains in a reactive mode as before, it keeps
talking about Pakistani state terrorism and about
the role of foreign mercenaries in Kashmir. It
can continue to try to make its case in
international fora, including the Arab and
Islamic councils and the UN. It can keep trying
to prevent Pakistan from internationalishing
Kashmir and it can keep trying to discourage the
US from mediating in kashmir. At the same time,
the Indian armed forces can remain engaged with
various Kashmiri groups in a search for political
solution in the belief that Kashmir is a serious
internal Indian political problem. The problem
with this option is that it keeps Indian
diplomacy as well as military policy tied to the
actions of Pakistan, Kashmiri militant groups,
the UN, the US, and the initiative to raise the
level of violence and to define the agenda lies
with forces outside India. This option leaves
India permanently in a reactive mode.
In the second
option, India recognises that if a power vacuum
emerges in Pakistan because of its inability to
develop a meaningful democratic process along
with economic and social reforms, then a
fractured or broken up Pakistan would make it the
cockpit of many rivalries and ambitions. Pakistan
is not a nation, it is a land with many 'regional
nations' : Baluch, Sindhi, Mohajir, Pathan ad
Punjabi. Pakistan is a case study of acute ethnic
conflict where social conflict is easily
militarised. The 1971 Bangladesh precedent showed
how lack of political accommodation enabled the
Punjabi-Bengali cultural conflict to get
militarised which led to separation. Ethnic
conflict may be studied from three angles : (a)
as the Cold War and bipolarity died, the
discipline of East-West bloc solidarity was lost,
and ethnic-religious conflicts gained salience;
(b) ethnic and religious conflicts show the skill
of strong political personalities and
institutional forces to mobilise masses and
salient groups for a popular cause; (c) ethnic
and religious conlict is an inevitable result of
nation-building and political accommodation. For
India, the second approach is the most relevant
because of the role of strong personalities and
institutional forces in Pakistan in stimulating
conflict.
The third option
is risky, but it is proactive, and if successful,
it would transfer the strategic and tactical
initiative into Indian hands and demonstrate
India's ability to set the regional agenda. It is
justified by the view that if nothing is ventured
or risked, nothing can be gained. It rests on the
premise - which the Kargil operation validated -
that Pakistan is smaller than India in
geographical size, population, the scale and
quality of its indusrial and technological
capabilites and the size of its military
establishment. But Pakistan has a strategic plan;
the motivation and the organisation of resources
is of high quality for the purpose of continuing
the proxy war in Kashmir and in other Indian
border provinces. It has a track record which is
now about 15-20 years old.
On the other hand,
India's pursuit of the first option reveals it to
be big but not organised with an effective
strategic plan that can change the attitude and
behaviour of the adversary. The first option is a
failed option. It is costly for India in terms of
financial costs, human suffering, military
casualties and the effect on military morale,
vulnerability of the government to domestic
controversy and international pressures, and
above all it is a no win situation : the
adversary has the initiative to raise the ante
and time the escalation to its interests and
calculations. It leaves India tied to Pakistani
jihad.
The second option
is more dangerous than the Bangladesh operation
in 1971 because West Pakistan is in proximity to
Iran, Afghanistan, China, and the iterests of the
US, Russia, China, India, Iran and Saudi Arabia
are engaged in the future of Pakistan and there
are consequences for each country of internal
instability in Pakistan. In the 1971 war, the
military contest was between Indian and Pakistani
power and India had the advantage of geographical
contiguity to the military and
political-psychological war theatre. Furthermore,
the powers (major and minor) did not have a vital
interest in East Pakistan's future as they do in
the Pakistan-Afghanistan-Kashmir theatre. If
India does not develop the third option
(discurssed below), a situation may arise where
by prologed ethnic and religious conflict in the
region could reduce the new US administration
(assisted by the likes of Thomas Pickering,
Strobe Talbott and David Holbrook) to mount
humanitarian intervention as in the case of
Kosovo. In the third option, the end game is to
create a situation whereby Pakistan finds it in
its interest to sue India for peace rather than
for India to offer concessions to Pakistan (which
no Indian government can offer, and which in any
case will never be enough for Pakistan's military
and intelligence authorities and the jihadis).
The author's premise is that the core issue is
the future of Pakistan and the basis of its
identity, and the core issue is whether or not
Pakistan will be able to Balkanise India and cut
it down to Pakistan's size.
The third option
requires India to reject the American advice to
Delhi to open negotiations with Pakistan. This
suggestion is based on a practical issue, viz,
who the negotiatiors in Pakistan are. The answer
is that there is no negotiators behind Pakistani
militant rhetoric and policy. There is no one in
Pakistan who can deliver a compromise on terms
other than the surrender of Kashmir to Pakistani
authority as a first step to India's
Balkanisation. So the first side of the third
option for India is to reject negotiation with
Pakistan. The second side is for India to explore
all negotiating possibilities with Kashmiri
militants, but with an awareness that
Pakistan-linked and Pakistan-dependent Kashmiri
groups will not negotiate because it is not in
their interests to compromise; their interest
lies in securing Indian concessions. So the
second side is to explicitly show that India is
interested in negotiating with the Kashmiris, now
with Pakistan. The third side of this option is
to gradually start tightening the screws of the
Pakistan Army -ISI combination. Strategy is a
mind game. In the third option, the Pakistani
military brass and the intelligence machinery are
the targets. They will recognise the value of
negotiations if the costs of their policy of
proxy warfare and intervention keep getting
higher.
India should not
respect the sanctify of the LoC since Pakistan
does not. Let Indian forces cross the LoC and
operate in Pakistan-held Kashmir. Let the Indian
Navy continuously rernind the Karachi population
(as was done during the Kargil operation) that
Indian missiles which are trained on Karachi will
be enough to make Pakistan a landlocked state
even if the costs of an India-Pakistan war will
be high; they will be higher for Pakistan with
American aid. Pakistani specialists should be
encouraged to war game scenario of a nuclear war
- where Pakistan drops a few bombs on Delhi, the
city may become the sixth or seventh buried city,
the Indian leadership may be finished and the
sealed order to the Indian Armed Forces would be
to fight the last war with Pakistan to the
finish. Only when the statistics show that
five-six Pakistanis die for every Indian killed
will it become clear to the Pakistani public and
elite opinion that proxy warfare is not really
low-cost for Pakistan. It would also show the
Indian public and world opinion that the Indian
Government his a strategy which raises the costs
of proxy warfare and its aim is to change.
contd...
Pakistan's
motivation and behaviour, as America did in
relation to Hitler's Germany and imperialist
Japan during the Second World War. Such an
option, however, requires a high degree of
continuous civil-military interaction and
political-military coordination. Unfortunately,
this is not apparent in the behaviour of the
Indian government, as the Kargil report shows. A
paradigm shift in the development of
civil-military-political-military plans is
required to effect the efficient development of
the third option, but this requires philosophical
as well as organisational changes in India.INAV
|
 |
| |
 |
|