EDITORIAL

OPPORTUNIST SHAH

Politics is a dirty game. And if there was any doubt about it, it was set at rest by GM Shah himself after his meeting with KC Pant in Srinagar the other day. Shah and Pant need no introduction. Former is founder of the Awami National Conference (ANC) and former Chief Minister of Kashmir, while the latter is the Centre’s chief negotiator on Kashmir. Shah, who is also the brother-in-law of the present Chief Minister, Farooq Abdullah, has also established that a frustrated politician can ....more

MUSHARRAF & CRICKET

In his stepped-up interest in Kashmir politics and New Delhi’s perception and policies vis-à-vis Islamabad, Gen. Parvez Musharraf seems to have ensured that his interest in the Indo-Pakistan cricket ties did not diminish. The very fact that Gen. Musharraf has decided to raise the issue of deteriorating cricket ties between the two countries during his forthcoming meeting with Atal Behari Vajpayee in New Delhi shows the importance of the game in the scheme of things for India and Pakistan...more

‘Jehadi’ outfits get the jitters

By Debdeep Chakraborty
Pakistan's Chief Executive, General Pervez Musharraf's acceptance of the Indian Prime Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee's....
more

Hal with aviation giants
at Paris air show

By Deepak Arora
Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) of India is one of over 1,700 exhibitors which have confirmed their participation .....
more

Thailand: Healthcare
for 66 Cents

By Wallapa T
Medicare in Thailand has never been a bed of roses. Expensive, and sometimes of dubious quality, common....
more

Assassinantion of King
Birendra to encourage
masoists to Nepal

By P.N. Pradhan
The assassination of king Birendra and queen Aishwarya alongwith other members of the royal family by prince Dipendra over a trivial
...more

EDITORIAL

OPPORTUNIST SHAH

Politics is a dirty game. And if there was any doubt about it, it was set at rest by GM Shah himself after his meeting with KC Pant in Srinagar the other day. Shah and Pant need no introduction. Former is founder of the Awami National Conference (ANC) and former Chief Minister of Kashmir, while the latter is the Centre’s chief negotiator on Kashmir. Shah, who is also the brother-in-law of the present Chief Minister, Farooq Abdullah, has also established that a frustrated politician can be dirtier. Shah, known to a handful of his followers as ‘Gul Shah Baadshah’, swore by Kashmir’s accession to India when he was installed as the Chief Minister of J&K in 1984 after the removal of the Farooq Abdullah Government. During his tenure as the State’s ruler, Shah did not tolerate the talk against Kashmir’s ties with India. For 30 years Shah was considered to be successor to Sheikh Abdullah, his father-in-law. Always wearing a cap and dark glasses, Shah had been waiting for his opportunity all along. He was outwitted in 1982 when he lost the battle to Farooq Abdullah. Since Shah was keen to emerge on the scene as the Chief Minister, he kept himself in close contact with close aides of the Indian Premier. Things, happily for him, changed after elections in Kashmir in June 1983. Shah was acceptable to New Delhi. Why not? He had by then proved his loyalty to the Instrument of Accession. He had but one mission-if only he could manage 12 MLAs from the National Conference he was assured of the chair. And he knew how to do it. He offered every one of the 12 a chair each. His Cabinet had a unique distinction: A 100 per cent representation and total equality. It is a different matter that GM Shah went the same way he came-in a blaze of controversy. The same Governor, Jagmohan, who had ushered him in through the backdoor, played a major role in his ouster following rampant communal trouble in the State. No wonder, Shah refused to chant pro-accession slogans after his removal from the office of Chief Minister. But Shah obviously failed to accept the fact that facts of history, which he himself as the J&K Chief Minister had reckoned, remain facts even after desperate attempts are made to distort them. How many times did Shah himself declare the "finality" of Kashmir’s accession to the Indian Union when he was the Chief Minister of the State? Why should he now resent the External Affairs Minister, Jaswant Singh’s assertion that Kashmir is "an integral part of India"? Shah’s son, Muzaffar Shah, laboured for days together in New Delhi to persuade KC Pant to call on the former Chief Minister (‘Gul Shah Baadshah’) in Srinagar. Pant obliged and acted in a dignified manner. Pant could have hit back GM Shah when the latter let it be known that there was practically little to talk about when Jaswant Singh had said that Kashmir "is an integral part of India". But Pant, in a calculated move, decided to remain cool despite Shah’s assertion that Kashmir is not an integral part of India. Indeed, Pant imparted an important lesson to Shah: It is parliament’s stand that Kashmir is an integral part of India and that, in a democracy, Parliament is supreme. Pant is not to blame for the unproductive talks with GM Shah. The talks were bound to fail, as eccentric Shah had not digested Jaswant Singh’s pro-accession standpoint. Shah’s argument: There was no sense in holding talks when Jaswant Singh had made the statement on Jammu and Kashmir. If this argument were to be accepted by Gen. Parvez Musharraf, the proposed summit between him and Atal Behari Vajpayee would have to be called off. That Pant wanted Shah not to forget his past became evident when the former said in reply to a question at a news conference in Jammu on June 1: "I do not label people. They change with the passage of time. Somebody who was a militant ten years ago is not the same today and somebody who was a former Chief Minister now objects to the statement that Jammu and Kashmir is an integral part of India". Pant knows that his mission will succeed only if he received required support and cooperation from all sections in the State. It was, precisely, in this context that, during his 6-day visit to the Valley, Ladakh and Jammu, he deliberately made use of expressions such as "peace is necessary for development", "understanding", and "creating a climate of trust and confidence to find a agreed solution to the tangle". Pant’s use of expression "there are people who will not tolerate this exercise" was not without meaning and purpose. This expression, indeed, surfaced after a significant development in Srinagar: Expulsion of Azam Inquilabi from the patronship and basic membership of his party, Mahz-e-Azadi. His fault: His ‘secret’ meeting with KC Pant without his party’s prior permission.

MUSHARRAF & CRICKET

In his stepped-up interest in Kashmir politics and New Delhi’s perception and policies vis-à-vis Islamabad, Gen. Parvez Musharraf seems to have ensured that his interest in the Indo-Pakistan cricket ties did not diminish. The very fact that Gen. Musharraf has decided to raise the issue of deteriorating cricket ties between the two countries during his forthcoming meeting with Atal Behari Vajpayee in New Delhi shows the importance of the game in the scheme of things for India and Pakistan. According to one school of thought, cricket always was, and still can be, a great facilitator when it comes to improving relations between the two traditionally hostile neighbours. The game, unfortunately, has been allowed to be warped in the politics of the Indo-Pak problem in recent months. So much so that India refused to play bilateral cricket with Pakistan, triggering a strong threat from the latter of a total boycott of the game with India. The situation, it can be said without any fear of contradiction, has been a cause of concern not only to the players on both sides of the border but also the people at large. The game of cricket has a huge fan following in both the countries, and is known to stir strong passions. And by this token, it has always served as a common bond between the people of the two countries. As much as Hindi film movies and Pakistani plays have. The issue has now again come to the centrestage of the relations between the two countries in the context of the September Asia Cup Championship during which India is scheduled to play a test in Pakistan after two years. The announcement in this regard was promptly hailed by lovers of the game on both the sides. However, subsequently, doubts were raised about the test, after Sports Minister, Ms Uma Bharati, publicly flayed the BCCI for agreeing to play in Pakistan without taking the Government’s permission. The BCCI went ahead with the move in view of the earlier statements of the Indian Government allowing the national side to play against Pakistan in multi-nation events like the World Cup and Asian Championships, while refusing to sanction bilateral series between the two. Despite the Government’s repeated attempts at explaining and clarifying its stand, one finds it difficult to understand the reasoning behind the whole business. Just the other day, while the controversy over cricketing ties between the two countries continued to rage, the Government created a three-member Indian snooker team to take part in the Asian amateur championships to be held in Karachi from June 4 to 9. Recently, an Indian volleyball team played in the Asian junior championships in Islamabad. India is also expected to take part in the South Asian Federation (SAF) Games being held in Pakistan in October. It is in this context that Gen. Musharraf’s decision to take up the issue with the Indian Prime Minister, and hopefully sort it out once and for all, is quite welcome. One does hope that taking a cue from the Ping Pong diplomacy that the US and China engaged in quite effectively at the peak of the Cold War, New Delhi and Islamabad will also use the love for cricket among their people to come closer to each other.

‘Jehadi’ outfits get the jitters

By Debdeep Chakraborty

Pakistan's Chief Executive, General Pervez Musharraf's acceptance of the Indian Prime Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee's invitation for a summit in New Delhi, has raised hopes for peace on both sides of the border. The Prime Minister in his invitation to the Chief Executive of Pakistan has expressed his desire to address all outstanding issues between the two countries including the issue of Kashmir during the summit. Pakistan has always maintained that the core issue in the troubled relationship between the two countries is Kashmir. In an interview to BBC after receiving the invitation, the Chief Executive while making it clear that he had no objection to discuss all bilateral issues, stood by his country's earlier stand that Kashmir continues to be the main cause for the strained relations between India and Pakistan. The General further added that he was "cautiously optimistic" about the forthcoming summit.

Both the Indian and the Pakistan Governments know that the summit is merely a beginning and are not expecting any immediate breakthrough. The media in both the countries however, has been successful in raising the expectations of the common man. Political parties too are backing their respective Governments in this latest peace initiative. Overall, people in both the countries are relieved that an initiative has been taken to start the dialogue process between the two countries. India had stopped all bilateral talks with Pakistan after the Kargil conflict in 1999.

However, not everyone is happy with the prospects of peace between India and Pakistan. Pakistan based 'jehadi' outfits engaged in Kashmir have reacted in panic. Their concern is understandable, given the fact that a peaceful settlement between the two neighbours can threaten their very existence. Organisations like the Lashkar-e-Toiba and Al Badr view India's peace initiative as a ploy to hoodwink world opinion, and have asked General Musharraf not to fall in to India's 'peace trap'.

Almost all the jehadi organisations operating from Pakistan, except the Lashkar-e-Toiba are offshoots of two main religious parties, the Jamaat-e-Islam (JI) and the Jamaat-ul-Ulema-e-Islam (JUI). Both these parties were formed primarily to control political power in the country but later, after experiencing electoral failures, changed tracks. The Jamaat-e-Islami which was founded in 1941, participated in general elections for the first time in 1970. It was able to win only 4 seats out of the 151 it contested. On the other hand, the Jamait-ul-Ulema-e-Islam fared quite well in the same elections and was even able to form a coalition Government in the North West Frontier Province (NWFP). The life of this Government however turned out to be too short after Zulfikar Ali Bhutto sacked it. Since then, both these parties have given up their political aspirations.

It was in 1977 that both Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) and the Jamaat-ul-Ulema-e-Islam (JUI) again sprung back in to action. Taking advantage of the tide against the Pakistan People Party, they joined hands with the then Chief of Army Staff, General Zia Ul Haq, which then led to the imposition of marital law in the country. It was during this time that both the parties experience phenomenal growth and secured influence as well as substantial material support through intelligence agencies for fighting 'jihad' in Afghanistan, which was then under Soviet occupation. Thus began an alliance with the military establishments, which continues even today. Flush with foreign funds and backing from the military, both the JUI and JI established several thousand madrasas across Pakistan. Several camps were set up in the NWFP to recruit thousands of Afghan refugees as mujahideens to fight the Russians. The CIA fed millions of dollars to these camps to fight Soviet occupation in Afghanistan. Later these mujahideens formed the Taliban and today they control more than 90 percent of Afghanistan.

With the war over and the Soviets leaving Afghanistan in the late 80's both the JUI and the JI were faced with an identity crisis and feared that they would again be pushed into oblivion. It was then that they diverted their attention to Kashmir. While continuing to take part in the civil war in Afghanistan, groups from both the parties started splitting and forming separate 'jehadi' outfits to fight in Kashmir. The groups however continued to maintain their allegiance to their parent parties. While Hizbul Mujahideen and Al Badr are splinter groups of the Jamaat-e-Islami (JI), the Harkat-Ul Ansar was born out of the Jamiat-Ul-Ulema-e-Islam (JUI). The most recently formed Jaish-e-Mohammed, started by Maulana Masood Azhar after his release by the Indian Government in December 1999, in return for the passengers of the hijacked Indian airlines plane, too has its roots in the JUI. Some of the other jihadi outfits are the Sipah-e-Sahaba and Lashkar-e-jhangvi, both owing allegiance to Jamiat-ul-Ulema -e-Islam. The most powerful of these outfits however, is the Lashkar-e-Toiba was born much later in 1993 as a separate wing of the Markaz-al-Dawa-Wal Irshad to fight in Afghanistan, Kashmir, Kosovo and the Philippines. The outfit is today headed by Hafiz Mohammed Saeed, a former University lecturer.

The influence of the 'jihadi' outfits has been growing rapidly over the years. It is estimated that there are over 1,000 religiouus schools in Pakistan today. In a recent interview to the Karachi based newspaper, The News, the former Pakistani Prime Minister, Benazir Bhutto, expressed fear that members of these outfits may one day be successful in creating a parallel armed force. Another Lahore based daily, The Nation, in one of its articles had estimated the number of 'jehadis' operating from Pakistani soil to be 3,00,000.

In a recent interview to BBC, General Musharraf said that the time is not yet ripe for asking the 'jehadi' outfits to stop their activities in Kashmir. But even if the Indo-Pak talks did manage a breakthrough in the future and General Musharraf wanted outfits like Lashkar-e-Toiba and Al Badr to pull back from Kashmir, the question is whether these outfits will heed to the Government's appeal. Besides, there is always a possibility of backlash from political and religious parties that are indirectly involved in militancy in Kashmir in case the Government tries to do anything forcibly. The 'jehadi' outfits are also known to have considerable support in the Pakistani army as well as in the ISI. Any move against these outfits will be met with strong opposition from these quarters. The Nawaz Sharif led Pakistan Muslim League Government had at one time tried to crack down on religious militancy in Punjab but it was stopped after the military coup in October 1999. The clout and strength of organisationss like Lashkar-e-Toiba can be judged from their role during the Kargil conflict. The military Government too had initially hinted at banning these groups but later backed out. As per a recent understanding between the 'jihadi' outfits engaged in Kashmir and the Pakistani Government, the former will keep a low profile and desist from recruiting and collecting donations openly in return for immunity.

With Pakistan and India agreeing to talk to each other, the first hurdle in the peace process seems to have been crossed. The major obstacles will however come to light once the talk begin. India's success in convincing Gen Pervez Musharraf of the need for friendly relations between the two countries and the later's willingness and ability to control the 'jehadi' outfits and other hardline elements in the Pakistan army can go a long way in silencing the guns in the Valley.

Hal with aviation giants at Paris air show

By Deepak Arora

Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) of India is one of over 1,700 exhibitors which have confirmed their participation at the eight-day Paris air show 2001 beginning June 17. Dubbed as the biggest aeronautical and space show in the world, it would be visited by delegations from over 43 countries, including India, Belarus, Georgia, Finland and Northern Ireland would also attend the air show.

The air show would see participation from top global aviation giants including Airbus, EADS, ADR, Boeing and Gifas. The business chalets, meeting places between the exhibition and clients, are characteristic of the good economic health of the profession. This year 505 chalet units have been booked compared to 458 in 1999, which is an increase of 8.6 per cent. This year 217 aircraft will be exhibited in the static display area and 57 aircraft will carry out flying displays every afternoon.

Some of the aircraft which would attract great attention at the show are the Global Hawk, Endurance UAV (a plane without pilot) of the size of a business jet and able to fly an attitude of over 17 km with a range of 26,000 km; the B2 strategic bomber undetectable by radar and recently used in Kosovo; a life size model of Airbus A380, Russian Antonov 225, the biggest carrier in the world and Sukhoi 30 MK.

The very latest models in civil aviation such as Airbus A 340-600 and Boeing B 737- 900, the longest aircraft of the third B737 generation, will be also be kept at the show. Some reflecting the last trend of the Aeronautical and Space Industries such as the recoverable stage of the Baikel rocket, the top of Ariane IV and V, UAVs and airships would also mark their presence. Famous historical aircraft, a lot of acrobatic planes of different types and parachutists during the general public days will liven up the sky of the Paris Air Show 2001. More than 270,000 visitors are expected at the show.

In the previous show in 1999, as many as 41 countries participated. It attracted 266,454 visitors, including 104,633 professional visitors and 104,633 from general public from 149 countries. There were 1,895 exhibitors, including 1,119 from abroad. As many as 3,023 journalists and 1,193 mediamen covered the events. There were 204 aircraft on static display and 69 aircraft and 60 helicopters had participated in the flying display.

The numbers of exhibitors, build-up areas and visitors give a composite indication of an increase of 10 per cent, compared to 1999. This increase of 10 per cent has been continuing since 1997, which shows that the Paris Air Show still has growth potential. The International Paris Air Show is the most important event concerning the aeronautical and space world- from the airframe manufacturers to the equipment suppliers. The international show takes place every two years at Le Bourget airport (Seine-Sain-Denis), less than 10 km from Paris. Created in 1909. it is the oldest aeronautical show of the world.

For the first show of the century and of the millennium, the 44th Paris air show at Bourget promises to be an exceptional vintage. Reservations have all-ready been received for 502 chalet units. For the first time in its history, the air show will be filled to capacity. To meet this unprecedented demand, the organiser has had to find extra space to set up new lines of chalets, which have all been reserved already. In the halls as well, demand is much greater than the spaces available- over 62,000 sq mts spread over six halls, including the new Hall 6 bult in 1999. With each new show the organiser makes every effort to impove the reception facilities and the environment offered to exhibitors. This year, he has decided to increase the authorised stand height from 3 m to 4 m, thus allowing stands with areas of over 250 sq mts to include a mezzanine of over 20 per cent of the floor area. These mezzanines must of course comply with the regulations governing safety and organisation related to height, area and respect for neighbouring stands.

It's easy to see: the Paris Air Show, which this year will be playing host to 39 countries and 21 national pavilions, will once again be equal to its reputation. In a context marked by a wave of restructuring and merger-buyouts designed to form big international groups, once again the show will be designed to create conglomerates once again the show will be a 'must' for the related profession, providing global solutions and becoming the crossroads for today's partnership and tomorrow's technologies.

The Paris Air Show 2001 will add a new dimension this summer with the debut of a sectorized international pavilion focused primarily on aerospace leading-edge technologies. The Global Solutions Pavilion will present attendees with the opportunity to view, at a single location, many key attendees with the opportunity to view, in a single location, many key technologies critical for the future development of aviation and space business.

Developed specifically for the Paris Air Show, the Global Solutions Pavilion will be ''the place to be'' at the 2001 event. Encompassing Hall 1 an area of 4,000 square metres, the Pavilion will showcase the ''latest and greatest'' in space and communication, automation and robotics, telecommunication, metal and materials on -board comforts and the business of aviation. In this new ''sectorized'' environment at least 100 exhibitors and their partners from around the world will get the exclusive opportunity to interface with show attendees, discuss business opportunities, including partnerships.

In additions to stand exhibits, the Global Solutions Pavilion will feature industry leaders hosting daily presentations and interactive workshops in a multi-purpose theatre. Live, interactive product demonstrations will give attendees an opportunity to see ''technology in action''. There will be several conference rooms, a business centre equipped with all office needs and a fully staffed exhibitors' lounge.

Additionally, the Global Solutions Pavilion will play host to an international media presence that will greatly benefit the exhibitors. In essence, it will become a ''business playground'', providing exhibitors maximum exposure and attendees an innovative environment in which to do business. The Global Solutions Pavilion is partnership between the event organizer Salons Internationaux de' Aeronautique et de Espace (SIAE), alongwith AADI and its sister company, Global Marketing Solutions, a division of Hannover Fairs USA, Inc. -CNF

Thailand: Healthcare for 66 Cents

By Wallapa T

Medicare in Thailand has never been a bed of roses. Expensive, and sometimes of dubious quality, common people have never been assured of good healthcare. Most medical care is provided by private hospitals - located mostly in cities - where the quality of service, prices and the ethics of the hospital operators have been questionable.

But the situation has taken a healthier turn with the Thai Rak Thai party living up to its election promise of providing inexpensive, good quality healthcare.

Early this year, the Thai Rak Thai had promised the people that if elected, it would make healthcare available for a mere Baht 30 (US 66 cents) per visit. No one paid much attention to the promise, until, on being elected, the government actually decided to implement the scheme. The 'Baht 30 Healthcare' as it has now become known, was formally launched this month. The scheme began at more than 500 hospitals and health centres in the provinces of Phayao, Nakhon Sawan, Samut Sakhon, Yala, Yasothon and Pathum Thani. It will later be extended to other parts of the country.

Before its launch, the policy was strongly criticised by the medical community, especially hospital administrators. Private sector hospitals raised several issues including the fact that by providing such cheap healthcare, they would all become bankrupt. Moreover, it was also felt that there would be huge numbers of patients at hospitals and the quality of healthcare would fall dramatically as a result of the influx of patients.

In hospitals where this scheme has been introduced, the numbers of patients is expected to increase by 20 to 30 per cent. But in the first few days, the number of patients has not increased. Several reasons have been forwarded for this. Firstly, many of the people do not yet know of the scheme and secondly, it might take a bit of time for them to adjust to such cheap healthcare.

Deputy Health Minister Suraphong Suebwonglee said he did not think people would make a habit of unnecessary visits to hospital. "I'm sure nobody wants to fall ill or go to the hospital just because they have to pay only Baht 30," he said, after visiting hospitals and health centres in Pathum Thani.

However, matching the criticism has been strong support for the scheme, with the poorer segments of society praising it lavishly. One of the first patients to benefit from the scheme was Chanya Limsuwan who had to pay only Baht 30 to deliver her baby. The normal charges would have been about Baht 1,000 (US$ 22). "I am so happy that my labour pains began today. Had it been earlier I would have had to pay much more for my child's birth," says 42-year-old Alisala Rathanaphas who delivered her son under the new scheme.

58-year-old Somjit Chaipatana is another staunch supporter of the scheme. "I usually go to Bhumibol Hospital for my medication. I suffer from hig blood pressure, diabetes, high cholesterol and a number of other health problems. Earlier each hospital visit cost me Baht 2,800 (US$ 62), but now I can get the same treatment for Baht 30," she says.

While the patients are no doubt happy, the hospitals have started counting the money that they are going to lose thanks to the new scheme. According to Dr Phinit Hiranchote, Director of Samut Sakhon Hospital, the actual cost of treating the first six patients between midnight and 8 am on the day the scheme was launched was Baht 1,033 (US$ 23), but the hospital collected only Baht 180 (US$ 4).

Hospital authorities would no doubt see the matter in a different light if the government was to compensate them the difference, but with economic conditions as bad as they are, there is not much hope of that happening. (WFS)

Assassinantion of King Birendra to
encourage masoists to Nepal

By P.N. Pradhan

The assassination of king Birendra and queen Aishwarya alongwith other members of the royal family by prince Dipendra over a trivial issue does not augur well for the stability of the Himalayan kingdom. It is more so in view of the rising Maoist militancy, drawing its inspiration not just from the traditional Maoist movements of the Beijing variety of the late 1960s, but from the more recent Peruvian Shining Path (Sendero Luminoso, a Maoist terrorist group, very active since the beginning of the 1990s) has become very conspicuous in Nepal over the last few years. Maoist rebels attacked police stations in two remote mountain villages in midwest and central Nepal on April 2, killing at least 35 policemen. Three rebels died in the attacks. More than 1,500 people have died since the rebels began fighting the government in 1996.

The militants, who belong to the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist), claim that they are fighting to end constitutional monarchy and to dismantle the feudal structure that lingers in different parts of the country. The Communist party of Himalayan Nepal implemented a constitutional democracy through a popular "People's Movement" in, 1990. Then, for five years, the local communist movement, under the leadership of CPN(M) has been creating a civil unrest; and now it seems to have posed unavoidable threats to the so-called democratic process in Nepal.

Four years ago, on February 13, 1996, a "people's war", as it was claimed to be, was initiated in Nepal under the leadership of the CPN (M). In the first two weeks, almost 5,000 actions were carried out throughout the country - including armed assaults on police stations in rural districts, "confiscation" of property from "oppressive" landlords, and " punishment of local tyrants". So far, this movement has cost 1,500 to 2,000 lives. Poverty, corruption, some arbitrary government rules and the age-old feudal system have fuelled this massive leftist violence. They aim to overthrow the bureaucrat-capitalist class and state system, which they think are dependent on and serve for imperialism.

The CPN (M) is applying Mao's strategy of a protracted people's war - establishing base areas in the countryside which would surround the cities, seize nationwide power, and establish a new democratic republic, as a step toward building a new socialist society. According to an article written by B.K. Rana in a recent issue (April 4) in The Peoples Review (a political and business weekly, published from Kathmandu), Maoist activities are spreading fast in Nepal and these rebels belong mostly to the Magar Community, including the Tharus, Tamangs and a few others. Magars claim they form 25 per cent of the total population and are hence the largest section in the country. Maoist activities originated from Rolpa in west Nepal, the home of the Magars.

The rebels claim that western Nepal is historically, geographically and culturally the basin of their revolution. The population is more oppressed by the ruling classes, and the government in Kathmandu is based too far from this part of Nepal. In a recent interview to a US daily, Pushpa Kamal Dahal alias Prachanda, the Chairman of the CPN(M), said that economically the ruling class of Nepal have always neglected the development of the west because they thought it to be a bad investment. Added to this, according to Prachanda, was the growing sense of feeling "oppressed" by the "upper caste chauvinistic-hegemonistic attitude" of the ruling classes' towards them. Sociological studies reveal that the people of the western Nepal mainly belong to the Mongolian ethnic group, also evident from their Mongoloid features. They were not so much within the grip of the different reigns that controlled the rest of Nepal before the beginning and till the middle of the 19th century. With the advent of the Gorkha empire this part was seized - but not totally captured. There had been some kind of autonomy even then. People were not much bothered about the distant power that wanted their subjugation. "The Magar ancestors.have so glorious history of shedding blood in the making of modern Nepal. But they are portrayed as villains in the pages of history," lamented Rana in his article mentioned above.

Though Nepal is a pilgrim's city for the devout Hindus, one would hardly find any temple in the western part (especially in the regions of Rolpa and Rukum). The CPN (M) ascribes this as a culture where upper caste Hindu-chauvinism and feudal values do not prevail. That is the reason, the CPN (M) concentrates on "working" in these areas, like in Thabang and Rolpa" Reports from different sections of the Press (including foreign agencies), investigations by different human rights organization (notably among them, Institute for Human Rights Communication, Nepal) indicated that a weak political and administrative system, rampant corruption and its traditional isolation, magnified by Nepal's abject poverty, have added advantage to the Maoists to reach the target they are groping for, that is, freeing Nepal from the "Semi-feudal-semi-colonial social system by means of Peoples War as envisaged by Mao Zedong".

Nepal's population, a mosaic of different tribes, language groups, and religions, was secluded in the mountains for centuries. Many still live in remote villages that take several days' walk to reach. Many villages have been totally ignored by economic planners - they have to do without schools, roads, electricity, or medical facilities. The increasing number of unemployed people, sub-standard education (close to 100,000 rural youths failing high school examinations every year), little domestic capital to invest, and inadequate foreign aid have made the scenario critical.

Average economic growth, approximately four per cent per year for the past few years, has become insufficient to absorb the estimated 500,000 young people who join the labour force each year. Maoists are thus receiving widespread support from these people. Unemployed youths are joining the CPN(M), a significant part of them being women (over one hundred women have died fighting the police). The support and participation of non-Hindu ethnic castes (known as Janajatis) has been yet another strength of the insurgency. According to some political analysts, the geographical positioning of Nepal is strategically sensitive to India, Bangladesh and China.

Many speculate that external entities might also be involved in this growing insurgency. Nepal's Maoists have covert links with India's Maoist rebels like the People's War Group (PWG) and Maoist Coordination Centre (MCC), which are active in Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Bihar. The 120-km Araniko highway linking Nepal and China, constructed in the 1960s with Chinese assistance despite India's objection, passes though Kavre, Dolakha and Sidhupalchok districts, hotbeds of Maoist insurgency.

Of course, there is currently no evidence of official Chinese support for the Nepalese Maoists. But political analysts feel that an upsurge in Tibetan activities in Nepal could make the Maoists a tempting instrument for reprisal.

The situation is not yet ripe for a showdown, and might need a few more years of intense insurgent activities. The Maoists do not have sufficient arms and ammunition, but snatching of arms from the police forces is not really a distant possibility.

In view of the emerging scenario, and coronation of prince Gyanendra, India has to adopt a policy of wait and watch. At the same time, there is an urgent need for greater interaction between Indian and Nepalese political leadership to strengthen bilateral relations between the two countries. Political stability in Nepal is political stability at the northern border of India. INAV

 



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