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EDITORIAL

DRINK COLA, NOT WATER

Lady luck seems to have smiled at various Cola bottlers-- Coca, Campa, Pepsi, et al. Reports that 70 percent of the tap water supplied by the Public Health Department to the consumers in Jammu was unfit for human consumption has caused panic. While the less affluent sections of society have not immune to the adverse effects of the malcontents in the tap water due to continued consumption for decades, it is the upper creamy layers of residents of posh Gandhi Nagar, Trikuta Nagar colonies, who are on the look-out for a safe substitute. They could switch over to either mineral or carbonated water or bottled tap water being marketted as ''mineral water''. In fact, supply of ''safe'' water in 5 litres, 10 litters jerry cans, is a lucrative business in New Delhi, Noida and surrounding areas of Greater Delhi. But for the citizens of Jammu there is little hope. Four of the seven samples picked up for laboratory tests have revealed that the so-called mineral water contained E Coli bacteria, which though by itself is not dangerous, its existence points to other disease causing bacterium. This is said to be the main cause of the common occurence of diseases such as jaundice, worm infections, giarda cysts and other stomach ailments. The presence of facial matter in drinking water also leads to infections such as dysentry, diarrhoea, cholera and even polio, we have been warmed. According to the powers that be in the Jammu Municipality and the Public Health......more

Hope from the past

Allabaksh Hyderabadi

Taliban and their clones have im-mensely damaged the image of Islam. There can be no doubt about it. With their single-minded pursuit of what they perceive to be the right course of Islam, they have virtually alienated the civilised public opinion and thereby caused immense pain to the Muslim community as a whole.....more

Need for review
of NFU policy

By Avinash Shirodkar

The NDA Government's decision to carry out nuclear tests in May 1998 appeared to herald a new era of an assured and confident India, aware of its rightful place in the international arena. After the explosion, it took us more than a year to formulate the draft nuclear doctrine.........more

Soft underbelly

By M Rama Rao

So, Vajpayee and Musharraf have given up their shadow boxing, firing from other's shoulders and are face to face with destiny. It is not an easy thing. Yes, undoubtedly after the way they allowed rhetoric to tie their hands behind their back.....more

It's Sattar
show in Agra

By B.Raman

It is clear like daylight now. Agra is not going to be the Pervez Mushar-raf Show. It is going to be the Pervez-Sattar show. Or, rather the Sattar show, with Abdul Sattar, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister, from behind the scene, deciding what subjects Pervez will raise, what he will say, how and so on......more

EDITORIAL

DRINK COLA, NOT WATER

Lady luck seems to have smiled at various Cola bottlers-- Coca, Campa, Pepsi, et al. Reports that 70 percent of the tap water supplied by the Public Health Department to the consumers in Jammu was unfit for human consumption has caused panic. While the less affluent sections of society have not immune to the adverse effects of the malcontents in the tap water due to continued consumption for decades, it is the upper creamy layers of residents of posh Gandhi Nagar, Trikuta Nagar colonies, who are on the look-out for a safe substitute. They could switch over to either mineral or carbonated water or bottled tap water being marketted as ''mineral water''. In fact, supply of ''safe'' water in 5 litres, 10 litters jerry cans, is a lucrative business in New Delhi, Noida and surrounding areas of Greater Delhi. But for the citizens of Jammu there is little hope. Four of the seven samples picked up for laboratory tests have revealed that the so-called mineral water contained E Coli bacteria, which though by itself is not dangerous, its existence points to other disease causing bacterium. This is said to be the main cause of the common occurence of diseases such as jaundice, worm infections, giarda cysts and other stomach ailments. The presence of facial matter in drinking water also leads to infections such as dysentry, diarrhoea, cholera and even polio, we have been warmed. According to the powers that be in the Jammu Municipality and the Public Health Engineering Department, Jammuites should not expect any reprieve in foreseeable future because Tawi river, the main source of drinking water supply is itself highly polluted, Besides, the task of monitoring the maze of leaking pipes-- the source of facial matter getting into drinking water-- is beyond the capacity of the somnolent PHE department. Therefore, the alternative for the denizens of this city of temples is to keep drinking the polluted drinking water in the hope that in due course they would become immune to the harmful effects of the bacterium in it. Else, take recourse to drinking various brands of Cola. Who knows, the Almighty may bless you with ''Chappar Phar Ke'', as an added bonus. Remember the jingle; ''Kuch bhi ho jaye, Coca Cola enjoy.''

Hope from the past

Allabaksh Hyderabadi

Taliban and their clones have im-mensely damaged the image of Islam. There can be no doubt about it. With their single-minded pursuit of what they perceive to be the right course of Islam, they have virtually alienated the civilised public opinion and thereby caused immense pain to the Muslim community as a whole.

Sadly, the Muslim World has not covered itself with glory by their reaction, which can at best be described as muted to the actions like destruction of the Bamiyan Buddhas. Religious leaders, who should be in the forefront of any condemnation of acts that are against the tenets of the faith, have been observing, generally speaking, masterly silence, neither supporting nor condemning.

May be they are embarrassed by the acts of Islamists. It is also possible that they are tongue tied by the fact that long centuries ago, when sentiment was inflamed with the sacking of Baghdad by marauding Mongols, the Christian world raised no murmur of protest. One doesn't know for sure. Both possibilities cannot be ruled out.

Naturally, therefore, rises the question: should we make the present a prisoner of the past. More so in these days of welcome with open arms to a future where the global village doesn't remain a myth but is about to become a reality. Any number of incidents can be cited from the religious folklore that our ancestors too looked to the future always with hope and never allowed themselves to be tied by the past to the past.

Two incidents from the long Islamic history offer us an insight that certainly holds out a similar perceptive. One of these episodes goes by the title, Statue's Nose and the other is known as story of the Lost Pig. Both are an education to the ignoramus of the glorious Islamic past particularly the attitude of early Muslim rulers towards their non-Muslim subjects.

First, the incident of Statue's Nose.

It happened in the present day Egypt during the period of Caliph Umar. Amir ibn, al-As (RA) was the governor of the day. He had just conquered the territory. He was popular amongst his subjects. One day when he was still in Alexandria, a Christian delegation headed by the Archbishop waited on him. They were seething with anger and wanted justice.

The nose of a statute of Christ in the market place had been broken off and it was the considered opinion of the delegation that only a Muslim could be the culprit. The governor was distressed and shared their grief. He offered to pay for the statue's repair. He was even willing to get a replacement for the broken statute.

Both offers did not find favour with the delegation. In fact, were rejected outright. The governor asked them. What would satisfy you? In halting but measured tones, the reply came the only compensation acceptable to them was permission to make a statue of the Holy Prophet and break its nose off. Amar's reaction was predictable it was unfavourable. The governor ruled that the Christians would be compensated by being allowed to cut the nose of any Muslim they wished.

The next morning the Christians of the city as well as the Muslims of the garrison were summoned to the court to hear the governor. He first described the incident and then summoned the Bishop and spoke as follows: ''You are the head of the Christians and I of the Muslims here. The responsibility of ruling this country is mine and I must accept the punishment for any insult that may have been offered to your religion fo the weakness of my administration. Take this sword and cut off my nose.''

According to historians, the governor immediately handed over his sword to the Bishop. Amidst the commotion his decision had created,a Muslim soldier broke ranks and ran upto the platform with the broken nose in his hand and admitted his guilt offering his own nose.

The Bishop thereupon remarked: It was wrong to break the image but it will be greater wrong to mangle a human face for that. And he threw away the sword. Smile returned to all faces around.

The second story, as told to us, is no less interesting in holding a mirror to the past without prejudice. It goes like this. Once a Khariji war party was on its way. A wild animal attacked them suddenly. It appeared to be a pig but it could be a wild boar. The soldiers killed it with their lances. And continued their march.

After a while some of them had a doubt: Did we kill a tamed, domesticated animal by mistake? They decided to go back on the pig's traces through the desert. After a journey of three days they finally reached a Christian settlement. On enquiry, there they found a man, who said that a pig of his had been lost about a week before.

The soldiers told him that they had killed the animal in the mistaken impression that it was wild and offered compensation. He refused. He said that he had already given it up for dead and as such he needed no compensation. The soldiers were in no mood to yield. They virtually at sword point paid him compensation . Because ''they were not going to risk having to answer on Judgement Day for an unclean pig''.

What is the moral? What do these incidents reflect?

Let us remember that Kharijis are often described as the fundamentalist' fundamentalists. While they saw nothing wrong with ruling non-Muslim majorities or with excluding them from political life, they were scrupulous in ensuring that spiritual lives and material property of all subjects, non-Muslims including were fully protected. They practised what they believed-religious tolerance. For the Muslims of that era, what had happened in Bamiyan would have been incomprehensible. The Taliban fatwas too!

--Syndicate Features

Need for review of NFU policy

By Avinash Shirodkar

The NDA Government's decision to carry out nuclear tests in May 1998 appeared to herald a new era of an assured and confident India, aware of its rightful place in the international arena. After the explosion, it took us more than a year to formulate the draft nuclear doctrine. Sixty days instead, would have reflected our seriousness of intent. And despite the stimulating debate that followed the promulgation of the doctrine, we are again witnessing a worrisome silence. There seems to be a palpable absence of purpose. One wonders whether Pokhran-II was just tokenism and not an event to mark the unfolding of a new chapter.

To reopen the debate some comments are being offered on three aspects where opinions are divided. The principle of no first use (NFU), the posture of minimum deterrence, and that our inventory will be based on the triad of air, surface and submarine-based delivery systems. It is important to emphasize that when dealing with weapons of mass destruction, the voice of reason must prevail over moral rhetoric. An unquestioning adherence to policies formulated a decade or two ago would be equally unwise. Before examining the NFU principle, a brief explanation - the negation of this principle does not imply that we would always be the first to launch a nuclear attack. It only indicates that while exercising our inalienable right to self-defence, we retain the option to use nuclear weapons. It's situational premise, which allows us the flexibility to strike first or retaliate.

Let us now look at the expected pay-offs of a NFU policy. What are the advantages? Has it succeeded in softening the impact of our entry into the nuclear club? Will this clause facilitate the lifting of sanctions and allow us easy access to the technologies that we need? Does it help in ensuring credible deterrence at lesser cost? Does it facilitate in persuading possible adversaries to adopt a benign posture towards us? Since the answer is an unambiguous no to all these questions, there is a case for a serious second look at the NFU policy, Renouncing the use of nuclear weapons against non-nuclear weapon states is understandable, and so are agreements between nuclear weapon states (Russia and China) on NFU. A blanket NFU denies a country the leverage it could exercise to push bilateral treaties. This is in some measure the reason why Pakistan has scoffed at our offer of an NFU treaty. The defendants of the NFU posture may quote the Soviet and Chinese example. It should be noted that the Russians initiated this approach only when their nuclear armoury was hugely inferior to that of the allies (their main adversary) and abandoned it thereafter. To the Chinese, the threat of the NATO arsenal was in the abstract. With the Russians they negotiated an agreement.

While political scientists may observe that nuclear weapons are not for war but for averting war, and that nuclear weapons are political weapons for those charged with formulating national strategy must not permit themselves to be befuddled with such notions. Nuclear weapons, at the basic level, enhance exponentially a nation's war fighting capability. Much as we may abhor violence and war, if national security is threatened we must declare our resolve to use conventional forces and, if necessary, nuclear weapons. Our nuclear doctrine must not be ambiguous on this issue.

There are two other serious pitfalls of the commitment to a retaliatory response. One, it may encourage an adversary to gamble on a "take out" attack to neutralise our arsenal (in the hope that the resultant destruction and shock will cause the collapse of our consequence management arrangements to the extent that the counter attack does not happen). Two, the effect on the size of the arsenal. A retaliatory posture implies adequate residual capability. This has a spiralling effect on the arithmetic of numbers.

The position of minimal credible deterrence as against just credible deterrence is again symptomatic of our cultural and historical pacificism : "I will use force only if you use force and then too I will use the minimum force." In war, the concept of minimum force is dangerous. Is minimum credible deterrence compatible with credible deterrence? Is "minimum" a reaction to the ridiculously large arsenals that the Cold War adversaries built up? The governing concern should be affordability and cost. We must strive to acquire credible deterrence with the greatest economy. The prevailing confusion is clearly discernible when we look at the number of warheads meant to define our minimum credible deterrent capability. It is from a dozen to over 300 warheads with capability of each warhead ranging from kilotons to megatons.

The draft documents states : "India's nuclear forces will be effective, enduring, diverse, flexible & responsive.will be based on a triad of aircraft, mobile land base missiles & sea based assets." This is an extremely balanced position. Its implementation requires careful deliberation, especially as there is a need to look at the problem somewhat unconventionally. In the beginning nuclear bombs could only be delivered by air. Later, when surface-based delivery systems became available, the US continued to retain a sizeable air delivered capability for reasons unique to its strategic perspective. An indepth analysis will indicate that with the acquisition of appropriate surface and sea-based capabilities the relevance of air-based delivery systems diminishes correspondingly. Currently we do not have a sea based capability. Our air-and land-based assets are also minimal. Therefore, the course to be charted is to be carefully evolved. The main focus must be on sea -and surface-based systems with air delivery, initially as a necessary option, and later for adequate redundancies.

Our immediate concern should be to focus on acquiring capabilities. Maximise the yield of fissile material. Acquire thermonuclear warheads; simultaneously explore miniaturisation. Further testing if necessary must be undertaken - pressures of CTBT notwithstanding. Currently low-yield weapons (tactical nuclear weapons) appear to have little relevance. The scenario may change tomorrow, particularly with into "the window accuracies" at considerable ranges. Increase the ranges an accuracies of our delivery and surveillance systems. (We must accelerate the PSLV and GSLV programmes). These are technology trajectories relevant both for conventional and nuclear weapons.

Finally, for achieving and managing our credible nuclear deterrent in this age of rapidly changing technologies, all echelons of our security apparatus must be more time sensitive. Investment in capabilities will translate into deterrence only if they are operational within specified periods. The Russian nuclear deterrence will be seriously degraded the day the Americans succeed in deploying their ABM shield. The other imperative is that we cannot afford to look at technology incrementally. We have to leap-frog to catch up and move ahead. INAV

Soft underbelly

By M Rama Rao

So, Vajpayee and Musharraf have given up their shadow boxing, firing from other's shoulders and are face to face with destiny. It is not an easy thing. Yes, undoubtedly after the way they allowed rhetoric to tie their hands behind their back.

Reams are being written in the Indian and Pakistan media these days about Vajpayee, about Musharraf. Their every word, their every deed is under microscope to find a new meaning, a new nuance. Will success come their way today to walk on the high road to progress', where the heads are raised, where beaming faces spread relief, where the talk zeroes in on no what had been but what has to be?

The crucible of history is a funny place. It has no room for excuses, no room either for unadulterated ambitions that contribute to nothing but unmitigated disaster.

What will be the shape of things to emerge on the scene? Well, we will know at the 'new dawn'. Right now, it is better to get on with the chores we are familiar with in the Indian sub-continent.

What does this gibberish on offer ever since Vajpayee wrote that wonderful letter to Musharraf (before the General decided to anoint himself as the president, mean? In simple, plain English it says realism and optimism should go hand in hand, neither taking two steps forward nor two steps backward. So keep your powder dry. And be prepared for surprises along the line.

Realistic and, indeed, sensible advice this is, Because, in any discourse on India-Pakistan, the narrow base of the junta, military or democratic whichever is in power at any given time leaves no room for over enthusiasm, though sadly, every new twist and every new turn in the relationship between the neighbours props up peaceniks gushing forthwith enthusiasm in search of that elusive place in history.

Turn around in relations between nations, for that matter between individuals, can come about only when the foundation is laid on a five-letter word- TRUST.

In the Indo-Pak context, the search for this five-letter word is like searching for water near a mirage. Rummage through the pages of history, if still in doubt. Even otherwise, there is nothing wrong with rummaging through the history or holding a mirror to history, occasionally. The exercise helps us to remain on course, to be careful, to skirt the soft underbelly of the interlocutors across the border to India.

The point is in a country where accountability is the subjective yardstick reserved for those in the dog house only a miracle can bring about an over night, change. Believe me when I say we are past the medieval ages to which the likes of Jamaat, Taliban and Hezbe Tahir (the new force on the Central Asian firmament) want to take the world to create a new 'universal caliphate' and to 'absorb all Muslims under the Sharia rule'.

And frankly, we do not have any guarantee that the State policy in Islamabad doesn't subscribe to the faith in miracles. Yes, despite all the euphoria over Musharraf's new found legitimacy to stay for five years in the driver's seat, despite all the interest the transnational corporations and they mentors have to pipeline the land divide.

This cynicism laced with sarcasm as the readers are likely to term my outpouring, is not on account of the Alliance For Restoration of Democracy (ARD) to play ball with President General Musharraf on the eve of his so journey to Delhi-Agra-Jakpur-Ajmer. No certainly, it is not prompted by the reluctance of the deputy army chief and the likes to pay obeisance to the one and the only four-in-one boss.

In fact, I am not surprised by these developments.

I would have been surprised, undoubtedly, if the ARD played ball with Musharraf and if his deputy displayed his loyalty to the master.

I am propelled to hold on to my views by Musharrafism! Nothing else. Yes I do not think I have to hold forth on Musharrafisms. Yes. It isn't necessary, when the General himself is holding mirror unto himself.

Nevertheless, let me offer an analogy, I am reminded off every time I read a report of, no, not of the Amnesty International (AI) alone but Transparency International (TI) as well.

The amnesty is worried about the 'brutalities' of the uniformed forces in the Kashmir valley. It is worried about the 'prisoner's of conscience figuring on the Hurriyat's list. Since the forces are from the land of the Buddha, the land of Gandhi, they should return 'their other chest'' to the bullet. That is their Dharma, not Karma.

What about the believers in the barrel of the gun? Is that belief their Dharma? AI and their friends at home and abroad, who prop from virtually nowhere in the seminar circuit are always silent. Because, it is the AI's karma to chronicle' a history', not 'he history', to hold the mirror to one face, not the 'doosra rukh'. Newton has no relevance here, nor Pythagoras, for that matter.

Transparency International, TI rates the corrupt and the clean. Rich nations are always on the top of the 'Clean-Corruption Index'. The poor nations are at the bottom of the heap.

We, from the poor countries, where our sarkar is maa-baap to us, know, what TI has no time for Greasing the wheels is the past time of those in a hurry, those willing to cut corners, those willing to make they when the sun shines. Secret Swiss bank accounts have been swelling because of 'the givers', not merely because of 'the takers'.

Now to the analogy I was talking about a short while ago. It was from my grandmother's tales. In fact, almost all her stories had one message. Judge Yourself with Your own yardstick! Others by their yardstick! Mix up is dangerous!

Our experience as a free nation bears this out. So, does the experience of the so-called liberal countries where the chicken are coming to roost with some form of terrorism or the other surfacing in their midst making a mockery of their liberalism. (Syndicate Features)

It's Sattar show in Agra

By B.Raman

It is clear like daylight now. Agra is not going to be the Pervez Mushar-raf Show. It is going to be the Pervez-Sattar show. Or, rather the Sattar show, with Abdul Sattar, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister, from behind the scene, deciding what subjects Pervez will raise, what he will say, how and so on.

See the pre-summit preparations before Sattar returned from abroad and after. Analyse Musharraf’s demeanour and remarks before Sattar’s return and after.See the dramatis personae before and after.

See Ashraf Jehangir Qazi, the Pakistani High Commissioner, before he went to Islamabad for consultations and after his return to New Delhi. Before he went, he was the very picture of reason, moderation, the epitome of diplomatic courtesy, who was all attention to the sensitivities of the host country and full of enthusiasm about the prospects at Agra. And then, one session with Sattar at Islamabad; he has come back a totally chastened man. While talking to Star News on his Tea Party, the perennial cheer on his face haddisappeared. How carefully he was weighing his words as if Sattar was standing behind him. Maj.Gen.( retd)Mahmud Ali Durrani, the former Washington Station chief of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and an active member of the Belusa group of Mrs.Shirin Tahir-Kheli, is out. So is Lt.Gen.(retd) Moinuddin Haider, the Mohajir Interior Minister, whom Nawaz Sharifdescribed in his secret testimony in the hijacking case as Musharraf’s alter ego and as one of the two persons with whom Musharraf felt comfortable and had social relations, the other being Maj.Gen.Rasheed Quereshi, the General’s press spokesman, another Mohajir. And so is Lt.Gen.Muzaffar Usmani, the Deputy Chief of the Army Staff, another Mohajir, who led the coup from Karachi-end on October 12,1999, and ensured the safety ofMusharraf. No Shaukat Aziz, the Finance Minister, who is close to Musharraf’s US-based brother, noAbdul Razaak Dawood, the Commerce Minister, no Usman Aminuddin, the Minister for Petroleum and Natural Resources.On the aircraft, it will be just Musharraf plus Sattar and the bureaucrats hand-picked by Sattar.

How drastically the likely subjects list has been pruned by Sattar.

Trade? No. Gas pipeline? No.

Nuclear confidence-building measures? No. Cross-border terrorism? No. People-To-People contact? No. Meeting of the Directors-General of Military Operations before the summit as proposed by the Indian Prime Minister? No. Response to India’s flood of unilateral confidence-building measures and suggestions? Not necessary. Sattar wants the summit to be Kashmir, Kashmir and Kashmir. About five hours of nothing but Kashmir. He wants Musharraf’s pantomime with the Hurriyat surrogates to be telecast back to Pakistan. And beamed to the world to claim that the Kashmiris have more confidence in the General than in the Indian Prime Minister. He has reportedly thrown into the waste paper basket the initial draft of Musharraf’s speech at the Presidential banquet on July 14 prepared by Qazi and is attempting his own. It is the perennial "no man" of Pakistan’s Foreign Office, who has taken charge from Durrani, supported by Lt.Gen.Mohammed Aziz, the Corps Commander at Lahore. The source of Sattar’s power in and out of office has always been mysterious. Remember how he poured scorn in a press interview on Nawaz Sharf’s meeting with Mr.Narasimha Rao in Davos? Remember how he thwarted in 1995 Mrs.Benazir Bhutto’s initiative to grant India the Most-Favoured-Nation status by mobilising the support of all retired Directors-General of the ISI and other military officers against it. He is back in his game with a vengeance. How come he is one man in the entire Cabinet, who is able to stand up to Musharraf , despite his uniform, despite his commando badge? Is it only because of the support of just one Lt.Gen.? But, that Lt.Gen. is no small man. Musharraf may be the Chief of the Army of the State of Pakistan, but Aziz is the clandestine chief of Pakistan’s Army of Islam, consisting of the Lashkar-e-Toiba, the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen, the Al Badr, the Jaish-e-Mohammed and bin Laden’s Al Qaeda. Numerically, the Army of Islam is as strong as the Army of the State. And better motivated and more ruthless.

Are other non-Mohajir Generals too supporting Aziz? Did they have any role to play in removing from Musharraf’s Agra entourage all Mohajirs except Maj.Gen.Rasheed Quereshi? Or, did Musharraf ask Lt.Gen.Haider and other confidantes to stay behind and ensure that nobody, in his absence, takes it into his head to emulate Nawaz and sack him while he is wallowing in the lionisation in New Delhi and Agra? The incident of yesterday in Islamabad in which a car driven by one Abdul Hafeez tried to drive into Musharraf’s convoy— was it just an accident or the doing of a mad man, who was not aware that the targetted convoy was that of Musharraf as claimed by the Islamabad Police or was it a well-planned attempt on the life of Musharraf?So many intriguing questions without answers. All one can say is, there’s something more than meets the eye in Islamabad.

(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, and presently, Director, Institute For Topical studies, Chennai.)

 



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