EDITORIAL

ECONOMIC SURVEY

Pre-budget economic survey presented by Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha to Parliament diagnoses various afflictions that continue to reflect sluggish growth in the economy during 2000-2001 (April to December figures reveal such slow-down in core sectors). When diagnosis is there, there is also a dose of remedies that brook no delay to improve health of the economy. Survey is thus an appraisal and an indicator for the budget to be presented to Parliament on Feb 28. In the normal course everything can be made to conform to economic pragmatism to what is normally called political will. It is precisely lack of it that largely stems from ingress of too much populism and politics in strictly economic affairs that explains sluggish growth. The worst part of it is that Finance .....more

BY POLL RESULTS

Results declared in 10 assembly seats in as many as seven States in the country indicate vote in favour of National Democratic Alliance and slidedown in Congress fortunes. Congress has.....more

A Lahore Diary

By M J Akbar
There was only one burqa in the specious lounge of Lahore airport. The other dozen-odd women waiting for the flight to Islamabad were distinguished only by the fact that one was more beautiful than the other.........
more

The Compulsion
of Cease-fire

By K.N. Pandita
Nobody should be under an illusion that Kashmirian civil society craves for peace. Nobody should be under an illusion that the Union Government announced three – month extension in cease-fire in response to its perception that people in Kashmir want peace. The meaning of peace for an ordinary Kashmir Muslim in given conditions means withdrawal of Indian army and paramilitaries from Kashmir, resumption of talks with Pakistan and freedom of Kashmir with a choice.....
more

Diabetes: No sweet
news for South Asia

By Jyotshna Pandit
About 18 months ago, the Indian Express carried a shocking news item. Forty- five year-old Narsingh Pavla, a Plumber by profession, suffered from a condition called diabetic foot....
more

EDITORIAL

ECONOMIC SURVEY

Pre-budget economic survey presented by Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha to Parliament diagnoses various afflictions that continue to reflect sluggish growth in the economy during 2000-2001 (April to December figures reveal such slow-down in core sectors). When diagnosis is there, there is also a dose of remedies that brook no delay to improve health of the economy. Survey is thus an appraisal and an indicator for the budget to be presented to Parliament on Feb 28. In the normal course everything can be made to conform to economic pragmatism to what is normally called political will. It is precisely lack of it that largely stems from ingress of too much populism and politics in strictly economic affairs that explains sluggish growth. The worst part of it is that Finance Minister holds no hope for looking up fast. He would be more than satisfied if present level of growth could somehow be sustained for the ensuing financial year.

Some figures are available which explains where the economy has gone down for a slide. The first and the foremost is the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) which is the index for health of any economy. During 1999-2000, the GDP logged was 6.4%. It has slowed down to 6% during April-Dec 2000 for which figures are available. This means growth momentum that was witnessed last financial year is decelerated. And Finance Minister is frank enough to admit that next year too the level of GDP will be around 6% only. Taken in another context, one need not draw gloomy picture of the economy in that there are very few countries in the world which have logged 6% GDP growth. Even American economy and that of Japan sails in the same boat. Figures for China are never accurate because of tutored dispensation.

There has been slide down in industrial production despite many concessions and other measures put in place for its growth. Employment vistas have thus shrunk correspondingly. Slowdown in growth is quite pronounced from 6.4 per cent last financial year to 5.7 during current fiscal. Investor confidence in capital market continues to be eroded. The promised growth in the core sector has not taken place (infrastructure sector like roads, power, coal, civil aviation, telecom etc). Obviously, lack of resources and paltry inflow of FDIs have put these vital sectors on slowdown trail. Growth in these sectors is vital to the growth in GDP as also employment generation. Right now Finance Minister has no panacea for giving fresh impetus to these sectors. To be precise growth in power generation has substantially declined. It was 7.2% last year while ongoing year's level is only 4.2%. Power sector thus needs to be addressed more vigorously because it holds the key for growth of other infrastructure sectors.

News from the agricultural front is disappointing. Foodgrain production is down during the ongoing year by almost 4.7% from 208 million tons in 1999-2000 to 199 million tons during ongoing year. One may question these figures in as much as there has been distress sale by the farmers and godowns are full to the brim with almost 45 million tons of foodgrains against the required buffer of only 18 million tons. This indicates deeper malaise due to uneven cropping pattern which shows surpluses in one item while imports in other items. Overall agricultural production is down and there has been no increase in investment in the agricultural sector. A rational farm sector policy with necessary correctives and removal of imbalances in cropping pattern has to be put in place by removing restrictive regimes on pattern similar to other sectors.

By far the greatest problem is deficit financing. Unless Government musters enough of courage, such deficits will continue to be around 10% for States and the Centre put together. Some remedial steps have been suggested in the economic survey. Reduction in interest rates in small savings will reduce the interest payment burden on the exchequer. Fetilisers subsidies are slated to be curtailed or withdrawn. Same is true of subsidy in foodgrains supplied to the consumers. Together, a reduction of around 10,000 crore in subsidies in these two items could reduce fiscal deficit. This could mean removal of those living above poverty line from the Public Distribution System while continuing heavy subsidies for those below poverty line. The surcharge imposed in the wake of Kargil war and Gujarat earthquake on personal and corporate income will continue. Yet another area of reducing fiscal deficit is downsizing the establishment through VRS by 10% in the next three years. There is also mention of closing down one or two ministries totally to reduce deficit. Neither defence sector nor the social sector has any room for curtailment.

On the positive side economy has some points which reflect its resilience to withstand shocks and tribulations. Rupee is by and large steady against the dollar. Forex reserves are at all time high at over 41 billion dollars (5 billion has accrued from sale of Millennium bonds abroad by SBI). Exports have shown remarkable growth of a little over 20%. The economy has successfully absorbed abnormal rise in petro-products in international markets (almost three time increase) with inflation rate remaining around 8%. One thing however is certain. NDA Govt cannot push through the remedies because of populist allies with regional priorities and electoral politics having priority over economic compulsions. It is thus quite an open question how far Yashwant Sinha will succeed in reducing fiscal deficit in areas identified by him like reduction in subsidies on fertilisers and foodgrains, realisation from disinvestments, downsizing establishment and giving short shrift to populist game. Regional allies will not permit any one of these. Only sure area is reduction in interest rates on small savings that largely targets middle class. And mind you there is election in five State assemblies in just about two months time.

BY POLL RESULTS

Results declared in 10 assembly seats in as many as seven States in the country indicate vote in favour of National Democratic Alliance and slidedown in Congress fortunes. Congress has surrendered seats in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan to Bhartiya Janata Party. Akali Dal has won the Majitha seat despite massive onslaught by Congress. The margin of victory proves that BJP-Akali Dal alliance is on the comeback trail after massive drubbing during last Lok Sabha elections. This is all the more important because there was too much internecine fighting within the Akali Dal. In Bihar Samata Party candidate has romped home comfortably defeating his RJD rival by a good margin. Nothing much is to be read in this victory other than that Samata is part of National Democratic alliance. Victory despite the inner revolt is significant for Samata Party led by George Fernandes. News from Andhra is equally good as both the Telugu Desam candidates have retained their stranglehold on the electorate with comfortable victory margin over the Congress rivals. This means TD and its leader continues to be popular with the masses. TD is also an NDA ally. In UP which goes to polls next year BJP has retained the seat. These bypolls indicate decline in Congress vote-base in States ruled by it as also failure to exploit the incumbency factor in Punjab, UP, Andhra Pradesh ruled by NDA.

A Lahore Diary

By M J Akbar

There was only one burqa in the specious lounge of Lahore airport. The other dozen-odd women waiting for the flight to Islamabad were distinguished only by the fact that one was more beautiful than the other. The same ratio, between burqa and beauty, extended to any public area, including that authentic gathering point of all classes, Anarkali bazaar. The men saunter and gossip along the paved central walkway; the women, more intent on serious purchase, fill the bright narrow shop-choked arteries on either side. When together the men looked obedient, the women authoritative. Some things are the same in every part of the world. The chorus of a thousand years welcomed me as I entered the arteries young men on rapid-fire voice-duty offering finer goods at better prices. 'Baba suit lewo jee! Full suit! Bahut..." An experienced elder shopkeeper, semilounging on a pillow, eyed my reaction and cut off the chorus: "Ei to sair karan aaya hai jee (This one has come for fun)." There was a hint of deprecation as his face suggested the teeming presence of women all around. He was accusing me of being a voyeur. Let me be candid. The voyeuring was good. One pair of eyes between a dark dupatta still glistens in memory.

I have during this visit discovered the answer to a very old question: why are the women of Lahore so beautiful? This is Allah's way of evening things out. Someone has to comprensate for the men.

**************

There are, I gather, few teenagers in the Pakistan International Airlines fleet. The plane that brought me from Delhi was musty, but someone in PIA marketing is positively brilliant. How do you sell seats on an airline whose planes are on an average twenty years old and include the sterling Fokker Friendships? The smile is helpful of course; even the security chaps who pay that little extra attention as you broad in Delhi smile through their beards. But the stroke of genius is elsewhere.. PIA gives all its passengers First Class baggage tags, or at least Executive Class ones if the Firsts run out. This is superb. Nothing ralses the self-esteem of an Economy passenger more than a First Class tag flapping from his bag-strap; he will preserve it long after the journey, just as the tycoons preserve their Concorde labels. There are airlines, like British Airways, that are so sniffy that they don't give First Class tags even to some to their First Class passengers. I mean, they can't stop you buying a First Class ticket but they can certainly discourage you from advertising the fact if you don't meet their appearance code.

The real swagger in PIA is to travel without any tag at all. That's real weight. That's Class.

**************

A strange visual awaits you a few yards before the main entrance at the Pearl Continental (PC, to friends) hotel in Lahore. A large neon sign announces the presence of the Laundry and Pastry Shop. I have no idea whether the laundry influences the pastry in this shop or whether the pastry influences the laundry. Suffice it to mention that while I did give the valet some laundry, I did not order any pastries. Inside, the atrium was crowded, jovial, friendly, alive, much like the city. I was told that an Indian architect had designed the hotel, although I wonder if that can construed as explanation for the tendency of the wings to shoot off in odd directions. The planist in the lobby was playing Kya karoon hai, kuch kuch hota hai, which is about as warm a welcome as I could expect.

The weather in Lahore is companion of Delhi; the bustle is from anywhere on the subcontinent: the grace is from history. The music is firmly from Bollywood, and flows through public halls and private homes in all its variety, interspersed with a fine local Punjabi-English pop. In my Islamabad hotel, Marriot, that irritating "hold" pause on the telephone was leavened by sitar music, and one of the five channels in the room was devoted completely to Hindi film music. The television channels are seamless South Asia.

The multinationals are now in charge of culture here as anywhere else on the subcontinent. The great Basant festival of kites has been handed over to Coke. Although Basant is still a week away, the paper kites are already dancing with the birds during the day and turning into string bulbs along the avenues at night. On the actual night of Basant huge are lights will chase the darkness off at night to enable large white kites to play and kill one another. Every kitchen will be perfumed with the vapours of superb cuisine.

Food is the national passion of Punjab. The Race Course road has been taken over for a Basant mela: 80 percent of its stalls are stacked with chicken and meat and Amritsari harisa and Heaven knows what else. It needs courage beyond my reach to get near these bursting pavilions. The celebrated television personality Anwar Maqsood once described Lahore's economy succinctly: half of Lahore cooks and other half eats. My own observation on this theory is that the half which cooks avoids the strain of eating because it knows the consequences of ghee and cream. As one cynic noted, the only pavilion missing from the mela was a medical shop. Still: winter is over. Spring in the air. Music in the soul. Laughter on the streets. Every cliche works in Lahore. Even the one about love.

*************

St. Valentines' Day may be under some stress in India, but is alive and well in Pakistan. Valentine was a priest who challenged the edict of Claudius the Cruel forbidding single soldiers from marriage on the rather reasonable grounds that families were injurious to the martial spirit. Soldiers who pined for wife and children did not make good fodder for the frontiers of the Roman empire. Valentine, a Christian, married them in secret, was caught, and sentenced to death. In prison he fell in love with the blind daughter of his jailer. Is that why love is blind? No. At least it opened her eyes. Valentine cured her with a miracle. Just before being taken off for his beheading, he sent a message to his beloved: "From your Valentine...."

So now you know.

I learnt this from a Pakistani newspaper.

Florists multiplied their prices ten times on 14 February. Internet servers were clogged. Newspapers were packed with messages. Samples; "Dear Darling Flafia Every breath you take every move you make. I will die without you. I want to marry on Valentine's Day. When I am alone. I miss you. Your Breathly Syed Ali Riaz". Dear Fizzy ! When well we become to celebrate life together? And in what relation? Can love great and relation? "Hi U. 2 Multinationals merge to be more competitive. We are splitting for ? Best of luck. Bhai. From Tajir Saeed. " You get the idea. Every message is genuine; on one could concoct such punctuation or syntax.

I would particularly recommend the one on multinationals. True: 2 Multinationals merge, why we splitting, Bhai? It could have been a Valentine between India and Pakistan.

*************

The lead headline in The Nation on the first morning of my visit to Pakistan told is own story: Raising funds for Jehad banned. I quote from the Karachi press conference of Pakistan's interior minister Moinuddin Haider; "There is no Jehad going on in Karachi or in Pakistan that these organisations be allowed to do whatever they like to do. I am giving clear orders to the police that if they see anyone displaying arms, stop them, warn them and if they don't listen just shoot them." Mr. Haidar added that "harmful speeches from mosques will be stopped (and this) would automatically help reduce hatred and tension".

The reaction of the Ameer of the Lashkar-e-Tayyaba, Hafiz Mohammad Saeed, was instantaneous. He called the ban "unislamic, illogical and violative of human rights''. For good measure the Ameer also wished the wrath of God upon the interior minister. Mr. Haidar clearly did not believe that the Ameer had any special influence in such matters with the Almighty. The next day he reiterated his message in Islamabad: " We will force them (the Jehadis) to remove banners and signboards posted around the mosques..... there is no need to promote fake Jehadism. This has brought a bad name to the country...." Talking of donations for "Jehad", the minister asked "Where does this money go? They use if for personal gains and to proirte hatred.

**************

The front row of bookstall is a good indicator of which book is keeping the publishers happy. The title that caught my wandering eye was in Urdu: Kaun Kaise Gaya? by Anjum Osmething. The jacket featured wobbly pictures of Liaquat Ali Khan, Ayub Khan, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, Zia ul Haq, Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif.

I don't know about the author's answer, since I did not read the book, but what a good question. Assassination; political suicide' suicide-cum-assassination (Bhutto was not a simple man); assassination; corruption. and-exile; corruption-and-exile. When democracy failed in the fifties the answer before the Pakistani people was easy. They wanted and got military dictatorship. When Ayub Khan withered away they brought back a democrat and found that he was a despot in mufti. Zia ul Haq disappeared in mystery and back came the reign of the voter. Except that democracy gave the people the most corrupt regimes in their history. There is something akin to helplessness in the present mood. There is a serious danger ahead. When the civilians looted the country the Army served as a bulwark of reassurance. But if the Army fails as well, what happens? The fundamentalists are waiting with an answer.

The Compulsion of Cease-fire

By K.N. Pandita

Nobody should be under an illusion that Kashmirian civil society craves for peace. Nobody should be under an illusion that the Union Government announced three – month extension in cease-fire in response to its perception that people in Kashmir want peace. The meaning of peace for an ordinary Kashmir Muslim in given conditions means withdrawal of Indian army and paramilitaries from Kashmir, resumption of talks with Pakistan and freedom of Kashmir with a choice either to remain independent or join Pakistan. In simpler language it means breaking away from the Indian Union. If India is prepared to concede these demands then Kashmiris are for peace.

From the Indian government’s point of view peace means that the insurgents bid farewell to arms, join the democratic process and observe law and order as other citizens of India do and accept India’s secular democratic dispensation. India will not agree to separation of Kashmir because she will compromise her territorial integrity for the whims of Kashmiris who vacillate between the extremes and have yet to learn the golden rule of equilibrium.

These are two diametrically opposite stances and cannot be reconciled. Both sides know that they are playing to the galleries. The heavy toll of life given by the Kashmiri Muslims weighs on the mind of ordinary man. When he talks of bilateral or trilateral dialogue, the massive number of his dead compatriots haunts him. He does not accept that it was his own choosing.He plays the jehadi and the victim – a contradiction in terms. Likewise the authorities responsible for security and safety of the Indian citizenry take into account the heavy toll of security personnel in countering the insurgency.

However, the Government of India feels it should not act against the common people of Kashmir because notwithstanding their inherent and characteristic vacillation, which India now thoroughly understands, they are as good Indian nationals as those in any other state of India. But at the same time, it has to act against the insurgents bent upon disrupting law and order. Moreover, it has to act against the mercenaries who project themselves as jehadis fighting for the cause of Islam. It is the former perception that becomes a compulsion for the Indian government to extend unilateral cease-fire. It is the second compulsion that demands it to retaliate when attacked.

Neither the insurgents will relent nor the security forces will remain confined to barracks. As long as Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and others back the insurgents, the two sides will continue to clash. Both are prepared for such an exigency that is likely to continue for another two or three decades. That would also be the acclamatising period to come out of the age old syndrome of blackmail.

How do the two sides conjure up the grand finale of the ongoing situation? The insurgents, fired by religious zeal and motivated by theo-fascist ideology, are convinced that the role of liquidating kufr from the globe is assigned to them by Allah and the time has come when they have to act for its realization. This was actually the briefing for the ‘fidayeen’ who, for the first time in Muslim history, surfaced under same nomenclature with the emergence of Ismailis in Iran in 10/11th century AD

The plea that in Pakistan, the APHC delegation will speak to the militant leadership and the leadership of extremist religious organizations appears very unconvincing. Conversely, the leadership of religious extremist organizations will give them a good briefing on the scheme of contemplated Islamic caliphate and Kashmir’s centrality to that scheme. Of course they will be promised positions and status for more active pro-Pakistani workers in the garb of Hurriyat, Jamaatis, jihadis or any other name. The whole discussion will be around Islamization of Kashmir, something that has already been achieved in fair measure. APHC would not talk to militant commanders in Kashmir because they know these outfits are scarcely free to take any decision or make a commitment.

The Government of India has some compulsions or perceptions to opt for continuation f cease-fire. It is the duty of the Government to provide comfort, relief and facility to the common people of India so that they are able to run the chores of everyday life. If cease fire on the part of the government helps save innocent lives and spares common people the agony of searches, checks, interrogation etc., well and good. Let it be announced.

But more pressing imperative is the internal condition of Pakistan. The control of that country has now passed into the hands of religious extremist groups, their theo-fascist outfits supported by the fanatical segments in the rank and file of Pakistan army led by jehadi Generals. The military\ rule is unable to rein in these elements. Only two options are left with it. One is a blitzkrieg on the jehadis to smother them, and at the same time be cprepared for plunging the country into a cataclysmic civil war. The other voption is that the military government joins hands with the jihadis and embarks on a massive programme of fighting jihad first against India, the closest neighbour under Kashmir pretext. It is difficult to anticipate which of the two options is likely to prevail.

Probably, the military regime will not go in for the first option. A large number of top ranking officers in Pakistani army are patently jehadis and followers of Awan’s Tanzimul Ikhwan or such other organizations. A divided army cannot embark on a disastrous course of confronting the mullas, the fanatics and their musclemen in the name of lashkars, jayshes and the rest of it. This is because in such an eventuality, the mullas will issue a fetwa against the military rule labeling it un-Islamic.

The second option seems to be the only option left with the military regime. Even the symptoms also speak of it. The acceleration of armed operations by the mercenaries in Kashmir, attacks on sensitive targets, threats to the Indian Prime Minister’s person, acquisition of more sophisticated weaponry by the mercenaries, defiance of religious extremist organizations of Pakistan of the authority of the military ruler, further influx of Afghan refugees into NWFP of Pakistan, imposition of more sanctions by the UN Security Council against Taliban and subtle rivalry among top brass of Pakistan army for the prized position of the Chief of Army in the event of removal of General Musharraf, all point to the worsening of Indo-Pak relations in military terms.

According to the perception of GHQ and the ISI, only a direct confrontation with India can bail out the military rule in Pakistan. This compulsion will make Pakistan use the nuclear option because Pakistan must use it against India whatever the consequences. That will satisfy the ego of those who live with the Bangladesh shame.

As far as China and the US are concerned, they will prefer that Pakistan survive even as a sick man but with the capacity to be a thorn in India’s side. However, if things come to a dead end, they will prefer the second option for Pakistan and even pat her when she decides to embark on that course of disaster and destruction.

India cannot sleep over the gathering storm in her neighbourhood, which will have direct impact on her own affairs in a big way. She has to give the quickly shaping events the proper time and space to develop into concrete form. She should not precipitate an Indo-Pak war by getting nervous at the intermittent strikes by the mercenaries in Kashmir. Rather she should do everything possible to divert the danger to Pakistan’s domestic scene. There is no civil society in Pakistan of today. There is no civil government in that country running according to the law of the land. It is a vast uncontrolled and rudderless mass of people, looting the exchequer, hegemoning over other provinces and peoples, blackmailing the world powers by posing as the champions of Islam and deliberately preparing for a showdown with India to avenge the Bangladesh debacle. India must maintain her cool. This is the time when she needs to repeat as many times as possible the eternal mantra of "if you want peace be prepared for war".

Diabetes: No sweet news for South Asia

By Jyotshna Pandit

About 18 months ago, the Indian Express carried a shocking news item. Forty- five year-old Narsingh Pavla, a Plumber by profession, suffered from a condition called diabetic foot. He had to spend about Rs. 75 each month to have his foot bandaged and for the medicines prescribed. This was within his reach.

But when the foot turned gangrenous and his doctor advised that it be amputated, he had no means to raise the Rs 15,000 needed to carry out the operation in a private hospital. So he chose what he thought was a much cheaper way. He went to the railway track, placed his leg in the right position and allowed the approaching train to perform the job of amputation...

Watching the horror on your face as he relates this story, Dr. A. Ramachandran, Managing Director of the Diabetes Research Centre and M.V. Hospital for Diabetes in Chennai, adds grimly: "Oh, there are any number of such stories. There was once a mother who sold her five-year-old child to buy medicines for her diabetic husband..."

This, then, is the economic toll diabetes takes on the poorest of the poor in a country with no social security system and where the quality and extent of healthcare delivered by the government varies widely among the States.

As indicated by the extensive research done at the DRC, the morbidity and mortality created by diabetes is only bound to worsen in the coming years. Unless, that is, the health care authorities plan for and put in place an adequate system to tackle this problem.

But, then, our healthcare priorities seem incongruous. Says Dr. Ramachandran: "For the cost of a kidney transplant (the kidney is one of the casualties of uncontrolled blood sugar) diabetes can be prevented in about 10,000 people through proper awareness and education. But, unfortunately, our medical curriculum today focusses on diagnosing and treating illnesses rather than on prevention. And there is no diagnostic challenge and little satisfaction in community care. It is time we geared our medical training towards creating social medical specialists rather than hospital-based doctors." With South Asians becoming more prone to diabetes than westerners, Dr. Ramachandran says that South Asia is increasingly becoming an important region for pioneering diabetes prevention and management programmes.

One of the factors that is a clear pointer to South Asians having a "higher predilection for diabetes" than others, is obesity, a well-known risk factor for diabetes. Compared to the western population, if there is a slight increase in this risk factor in a South Asian - who might have a slightly higher calorific intake - the risk of his getting diabetes is proportionately much higher than in any other group.

"It looks like Indians have a genetic tendency towards diabetes," says Dr. Ramachandran. Explaining what he terms a 'hypothesis', he says that historically and traditionally, the South Asian population used to adhere to certain seasonal variations in food intake. During periods of plenty, there was feasting; during droughts, floods or other natural disasters, there was fasting.

Over the centuries, the metabolism got so structured or adjusted that it would automatically move into a "survival adaptation" mode. Just like the credit and debit functions of a bank account, it piled up extra calories during periods of starvation. But with increasing food security across the region, the periods of fasting disappeared; there was a kind of mis-match, with only "feasting, and more feasting".

Against this 'hypothesis', consider this factor. We have an estimated 20-25 million diabetics in India! Move the feasting analogy to urban India, where the other risk factors for diabetes are ever-present: sedentary life-style, stress and hypertension. The incidence of diabetes in urban India increases almost four-fold.

Research studies done by out Centre in Chennai have shown that the prevalence of diabetes among urban south Indians has increased from 5.2 per cent in 1986 to 8.2 per cent in 1990, and to 11.6 per cent in 1996," says the diabetologist. More frightening is that the prevalence rate had jumped to over 14 per cent by 2000 and is expected to climb to 17.4 per cent in the next five years. "The WHO estimates that India will have the largest number of diabetics in the world and one of every four diabetics in the world will be an Indian," he adds. So, we do not only have the dubious distinction of being the second most populated country; we also have the highest estimated diabetic population in the world. And we have no clue how to provide for the healthcare needs of this population. This is the unflattering conclusion one can safely come to. If we compare our estimated diabetic population with that of China, the most populous county, there is reason for more concern. A 1995 international study says that against an estimated 19.4 million adult Indian diabetics, China had only 16 million in the same age group. The projections for 2025 are positively scary: 57.2 million in India compared to 37.6 million in China.

Dr. Ramachandran has published 200 research papers in Indian and international medical journals and authored several chapters in international text-books. He is also a member of the WHO consultative committee on the classification and diagnosis of diabetes. Based on the above findings and reading the clear writing on the wall on the diabetes threat to developing countries in the future, he is engaged in a collective Asian initiative to address the challenge posed by diabetes in this region.

As the disease has shown a clear pattern in this part of the world, he feels that it will not suffice if we look to the West for all the answers in preventing and treating diabetes. Thanks to the genetic predisposition of some of the Asian communities towards diabetes, and the limited resources available in developing countries to tackle the multiple health problems associated with it, we will have to have specific research on the peculiar and different problems that diabetes raises for us, says Dr. Ramachandran.

"We feel that this emerging global epidemic is not receiving the attention and importance it deserves in terms of public health policy and determination of research needs in developing countries in the Middle East, Eastern Mediterranean and South-East Asia. The alarming trends in its incidence and prevalence in developing countries should be taken seriously to ensure reduction in preventable morbidity and mortality. Substantial gains in health and quality of life and compression of morbidity are feasible if proven primary and secondary preventive measures are taken against this disorder," he adds.

To take up this "common crusade," the DRC is hosing a two-day conference on "Diabetes in Asia" in Chennai on February 18 and 19, in which delegates from Pakistan, Bangladesh, Hong Kong and the WHO are expected to participate. INAV.

 
 



|
home | state | national | business | editorial | advertisement | sports |
|
international | weather | mailbag | suggestions | search |
subscribe | send mail |