EDITORIAL
ECONOMIC SURVEY
Pre-budget economic survey
presented by Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha to
Parliament diagnoses various afflictions that continue to
reflect sluggish growth in the economy during 2000-2001
(April to December figures reveal such slow-down in core
sectors). When diagnosis is there, there is also a dose
of remedies that brook no delay to improve health of the
economy. Survey is thus an appraisal and an indicator for
the budget to be presented to Parliament on Feb 28. In
the normal course everything can be made to conform to
economic pragmatism to what is normally called political
will. It is precisely lack of it that largely stems from
ingress of too much populism and politics in strictly
economic affairs that explains sluggish growth. The worst
part of it is that Finance Minister holds no hope for
looking up fast. He would be more than satisfied if
present level of growth could somehow be sustained for
the ensuing financial year.
Some figures are available
which explains where the economy has gone down for a
slide. The first and the foremost is the Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) which is the index for health of any
economy. During 1999-2000, the GDP logged was 6.4%. It
has slowed down to 6% during April-Dec 2000 for which
figures are available. This means growth momentum that
was witnessed last financial year is decelerated. And
Finance Minister is frank enough to admit that next year
too the level of GDP will be around 6% only. Taken in
another context, one need not draw gloomy picture of the
economy in that there are very few countries in the world
which have logged 6% GDP growth. Even American economy
and that of Japan sails in the same boat. Figures for
China are never accurate because of tutored dispensation.
There has been slide down
in industrial production despite many concessions and
other measures put in place for its growth. Employment
vistas have thus shrunk correspondingly. Slowdown in
growth is quite pronounced from 6.4 per cent last
financial year to 5.7 during current fiscal. Investor
confidence in capital market continues to be eroded. The
promised growth in the core sector has not taken place
(infrastructure sector like roads, power, coal, civil
aviation, telecom etc). Obviously, lack of resources and
paltry inflow of FDIs have put these vital sectors on
slowdown trail. Growth in these sectors is vital to the
growth in GDP as also employment generation. Right now
Finance Minister has no panacea for giving fresh impetus
to these sectors. To be precise growth in power
generation has substantially declined. It was 7.2% last
year while ongoing year's level is only 4.2%. Power
sector thus needs to be addressed more vigorously because
it holds the key for growth of other infrastructure
sectors.
News from the agricultural
front is disappointing. Foodgrain production is down
during the ongoing year by almost 4.7% from 208 million
tons in 1999-2000 to 199 million tons during ongoing
year. One may question these figures in as much as there
has been distress sale by the farmers and godowns are
full to the brim with almost 45 million tons of
foodgrains against the required buffer of only 18 million
tons. This indicates deeper malaise due to uneven
cropping pattern which shows surpluses in one item while
imports in other items. Overall agricultural production
is down and there has been no increase in investment in
the agricultural sector. A rational farm sector policy
with necessary correctives and removal of imbalances in
cropping pattern has to be put in place by removing
restrictive regimes on pattern similar to other sectors.
By far the greatest
problem is deficit financing. Unless Government musters
enough of courage, such deficits will continue to be
around 10% for States and the Centre put together. Some
remedial steps have been suggested in the economic
survey. Reduction in interest rates in small savings will
reduce the interest payment burden on the exchequer.
Fetilisers subsidies are slated to be curtailed or
withdrawn. Same is true of subsidy in foodgrains supplied
to the consumers. Together, a reduction of around 10,000
crore in subsidies in these two items could reduce fiscal
deficit. This could mean removal of those living above
poverty line from the Public Distribution System while
continuing heavy subsidies for those below poverty line.
The surcharge imposed in the wake of Kargil war and
Gujarat earthquake on personal and corporate income will
continue. Yet another area of reducing fiscal deficit is
downsizing the establishment through VRS by 10% in the
next three years. There is also mention of closing down
one or two ministries totally to reduce deficit. Neither
defence sector nor the social sector has any room for
curtailment.
On the positive side
economy has some points which reflect its resilience to
withstand shocks and tribulations. Rupee is by and large
steady against the dollar. Forex reserves are at all time
high at over 41 billion dollars (5 billion has accrued
from sale of Millennium bonds abroad by SBI). Exports
have shown remarkable growth of a little over 20%. The
economy has successfully absorbed abnormal rise in
petro-products in international markets (almost three
time increase) with inflation rate remaining around 8%.
One thing however is certain. NDA Govt cannot push
through the remedies because of populist allies with
regional priorities and electoral politics having
priority over economic compulsions. It is thus quite an
open question how far Yashwant Sinha will succeed in
reducing fiscal deficit in areas identified by him like
reduction in subsidies on fertilisers and foodgrains,
realisation from disinvestments, downsizing establishment
and giving short shrift to populist game. Regional allies
will not permit any one of these. Only sure area is
reduction in interest rates on small savings that largely
targets middle class. And mind you there is election in
five State assemblies in just about two months time.
BY POLL RESULTS
Results declared in 10
assembly seats in as many as seven States in the country
indicate vote in favour of National Democratic Alliance
and slidedown in Congress fortunes. Congress has
surrendered seats in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan to
Bhartiya Janata Party. Akali Dal has won the Majitha seat
despite massive onslaught by Congress. The margin of
victory proves that BJP-Akali Dal alliance is on the
comeback trail after massive drubbing during last Lok
Sabha elections. This is all the more important because
there was too much internecine fighting within the Akali
Dal. In Bihar Samata Party candidate has romped home
comfortably defeating his RJD rival by a good margin.
Nothing much is to be read in this victory other than
that Samata is part of National Democratic alliance.
Victory despite the inner revolt is significant for
Samata Party led by George Fernandes. News from Andhra is
equally good as both the Telugu Desam candidates have
retained their stranglehold on the electorate with
comfortable victory margin over the Congress rivals. This
means TD and its leader continues to be popular with the
masses. TD is also an NDA ally. In UP which goes to polls
next year BJP has retained the seat. These bypolls
indicate decline in Congress vote-base in States ruled by
it as also failure to exploit the incumbency factor in
Punjab, UP, Andhra Pradesh ruled by NDA.
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A
Lahore Diary
By M J Akbar
There was
only one burqa in the specious lounge of
Lahore airport. The other dozen-odd women
waiting for the flight to Islamabad were
distinguished only by the fact that one
was more beautiful than the other. The
same ratio, between burqa and beauty,
extended to any public area, including
that authentic gathering point of all
classes, Anarkali bazaar. The men saunter
and gossip along the paved central
walkway; the women, more intent on
serious purchase, fill the bright narrow
shop-choked arteries on either side. When
together the men looked obedient, the
women authoritative. Some things are the
same in every part of the world. The
chorus of a thousand years welcomed me as
I entered the arteries young men on
rapid-fire voice-duty offering finer
goods at better prices. 'Baba suit lewo
jee! Full suit! Bahut..." An
experienced elder shopkeeper,
semilounging on a pillow, eyed my
reaction and cut off the chorus: "Ei
to sair karan aaya hai jee (This one has
come for fun)." There was a hint of
deprecation as his face suggested the
teeming presence of women all around. He
was accusing me of being a voyeur. Let me
be candid. The voyeuring was good. One
pair of eyes between a dark dupatta still
glistens in memory.
I have
during this visit discovered the answer
to a very old question: why are the women
of Lahore so beautiful? This is Allah's
way of evening things out. Someone has to
comprensate for the men.
**************
There are,
I gather, few teenagers in the Pakistan
International Airlines fleet. The plane
that brought me from Delhi was musty, but
someone in PIA marketing is positively
brilliant. How do you sell seats on an
airline whose planes are on an average
twenty years old and include the sterling
Fokker Friendships? The smile is helpful
of course; even the security chaps who
pay that little extra attention as you
broad in Delhi smile through their
beards. But the stroke of genius is
elsewhere.. PIA gives all its passengers
First Class baggage tags, or at least
Executive Class ones if the Firsts run
out. This is superb. Nothing ralses the
self-esteem of an Economy passenger more
than a First Class tag flapping from his
bag-strap; he will preserve it long after
the journey, just as the tycoons preserve
their Concorde labels. There are
airlines, like British Airways, that are
so sniffy that they don't give First
Class tags even to some to their First
Class passengers. I mean, they can't stop
you buying a First Class ticket but they
can certainly discourage you from
advertising the fact if you don't meet
their appearance code.
The real
swagger in PIA is to travel without any
tag at all. That's real weight. That's
Class.
**************
A strange
visual awaits you a few yards before the
main entrance at the Pearl Continental
(PC, to friends) hotel in Lahore. A large
neon sign announces the presence of the
Laundry and Pastry Shop. I have no idea
whether the laundry influences the pastry
in this shop or whether the pastry
influences the laundry. Suffice it to
mention that while I did give the valet
some laundry, I did not order any
pastries. Inside, the atrium was crowded,
jovial, friendly, alive, much like the
city. I was told that an Indian architect
had designed the hotel, although I wonder
if that can construed as explanation for
the tendency of the wings to shoot off in
odd directions. The planist in the lobby
was playing Kya karoon hai, kuch kuch
hota hai, which is about as warm a
welcome as I could expect.
The
weather in Lahore is companion of Delhi;
the bustle is from anywhere on the
subcontinent: the grace is from history.
The music is firmly from Bollywood, and
flows through public halls and private
homes in all its variety, interspersed
with a fine local Punjabi-English pop. In
my Islamabad hotel, Marriot, that
irritating "hold" pause on the
telephone was leavened by sitar music,
and one of the five channels in the room
was devoted completely to Hindi film
music. The television channels are
seamless South Asia.
The
multinationals are now in charge of
culture here as anywhere else on the
subcontinent. The great Basant festival
of kites has been handed over to Coke.
Although Basant is still a week away, the
paper kites are already dancing with the
birds during the day and turning into
string bulbs along the avenues at night.
On the actual night of Basant huge are
lights will chase the darkness off at
night to enable large white kites to play
and kill one another. Every kitchen will
be perfumed with the vapours of superb
cuisine.
Food is
the national passion of Punjab. The Race
Course road has been taken over for a
Basant mela: 80 percent of its stalls are
stacked with chicken and meat and
Amritsari harisa and Heaven knows what
else. It needs courage beyond my reach to
get near these bursting pavilions. The
celebrated television personality Anwar
Maqsood once described Lahore's economy
succinctly: half of Lahore cooks and
other half eats. My own observation on
this theory is that the half which cooks
avoids the strain of eating because it
knows the consequences of ghee and cream.
As one cynic noted, the only pavilion
missing from the mela was a medical shop.
Still: winter is over. Spring in the air.
Music in the soul. Laughter on the
streets. Every cliche works in Lahore.
Even the one about love.
*************
St.
Valentines' Day may be under some stress
in India, but is alive and well in
Pakistan. Valentine was a priest who
challenged the edict of Claudius the
Cruel forbidding single soldiers from
marriage on the rather reasonable grounds
that families were injurious to the
martial spirit. Soldiers who pined for
wife and children did not make good
fodder for the frontiers of the Roman
empire. Valentine, a Christian, married
them in secret, was caught, and sentenced
to death. In prison he fell in love with
the blind daughter of his jailer. Is that
why love is blind? No. At least it opened
her eyes. Valentine cured her with a
miracle. Just before being taken off for
his beheading, he sent a message to his
beloved: "From your
Valentine...."
So now you
know.
I learnt
this from a Pakistani newspaper.
Florists
multiplied their prices ten times on 14
February. Internet servers were clogged.
Newspapers were packed with messages.
Samples; "Dear Darling Flafia Every
breath you take every move you make. I
will die without you. I want to marry on
Valentine's Day. When I am alone. I miss
you. Your Breathly Syed Ali Riaz".
Dear Fizzy ! When well we become to
celebrate life together? And in what
relation? Can love great and relation?
"Hi U. 2 Multinationals merge to be
more competitive. We are splitting for ?
Best of luck. Bhai. From Tajir Saeed.
" You get the idea. Every message is
genuine; on one could concoct such
punctuation or syntax.
I would
particularly recommend the one on
multinationals. True: 2 Multinationals
merge, why we splitting, Bhai? It could
have been a Valentine between India and
Pakistan.
*************
The lead
headline in The Nation on the first
morning of my visit to Pakistan told is
own story: Raising funds for Jehad
banned. I quote from the Karachi press
conference of Pakistan's interior
minister Moinuddin Haider; "There is
no Jehad going on in Karachi or in
Pakistan that these organisations be
allowed to do whatever they like to do. I
am giving clear orders to the police that
if they see anyone displaying arms, stop
them, warn them and if they don't listen
just shoot them." Mr. Haidar added
that "harmful speeches from mosques
will be stopped (and this) would
automatically help reduce hatred and
tension".
The
reaction of the Ameer of the
Lashkar-e-Tayyaba, Hafiz Mohammad Saeed,
was instantaneous. He called the ban
"unislamic, illogical and violative
of human rights''. For good measure the
Ameer also wished the wrath of God upon
the interior minister. Mr. Haidar clearly
did not believe that the Ameer had any
special influence in such matters with
the Almighty. The next day he reiterated
his message in Islamabad: " We will
force them (the Jehadis) to remove
banners and signboards posted around the
mosques..... there is no need to promote
fake Jehadism. This has brought a bad
name to the country...." Talking of
donations for "Jehad", the
minister asked "Where does this
money go? They use if for personal gains
and to proirte hatred.
**************
The front
row of bookstall is a good indicator of
which book is keeping the publishers
happy. The title that caught my wandering
eye was in Urdu: Kaun Kaise Gaya? by
Anjum Osmething. The jacket featured
wobbly pictures of Liaquat Ali Khan, Ayub
Khan, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, Zia ul Haq,
Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif.
I don't
know about the author's answer, since I
did not read the book, but what a good
question. Assassination; political
suicide' suicide-cum-assassination
(Bhutto was not a simple man);
assassination; corruption. and-exile;
corruption-and-exile. When democracy
failed in the fifties the answer before
the Pakistani people was easy. They
wanted and got military dictatorship.
When Ayub Khan withered away they brought
back a democrat and found that he was a
despot in mufti. Zia ul Haq disappeared
in mystery and back came the reign of the
voter. Except that democracy gave the
people the most corrupt regimes in their
history. There is something akin to
helplessness in the present mood. There
is a serious danger ahead. When the
civilians looted the country the Army
served as a bulwark of reassurance. But
if the Army fails as well, what happens?
The fundamentalists are waiting with an
answer.
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The
Compulsion of Cease-fire
By K.N. Pandita
Nobody
should be under an illusion that
Kashmirian civil society craves for
peace. Nobody should be under an illusion
that the Union Government announced three
month extension in cease-fire in
response to its perception that people in
Kashmir want peace. The meaning of peace
for an ordinary Kashmir Muslim in given
conditions means withdrawal of Indian
army and paramilitaries from Kashmir,
resumption of talks with Pakistan and
freedom of Kashmir with a choice either
to remain independent or join Pakistan.
In simpler language it means breaking
away from the Indian Union. If India is
prepared to concede these demands then
Kashmiris are for peace.
From the
Indian governments point of view
peace means that the insurgents bid
farewell to arms, join the democratic
process and observe law and order as
other citizens of India do and accept
Indias secular democratic
dispensation. India will not agree to
separation of Kashmir because she will
compromise her territorial integrity for
the whims of Kashmiris who vacillate
between the extremes and have yet to
learn the golden rule of equilibrium.
These are
two diametrically opposite stances and
cannot be reconciled. Both sides know
that they are playing to the galleries.
The heavy toll of life given by the
Kashmiri Muslims weighs on the mind of
ordinary man. When he talks of bilateral
or trilateral dialogue, the massive
number of his dead compatriots haunts
him. He does not accept that it was his
own choosing.He plays the jehadi and the
victim a contradiction in terms.
Likewise the authorities responsible for
security and safety of the Indian
citizenry take into account the heavy
toll of security personnel in countering
the insurgency.
However,
the Government of India feels it should
not act against the common people of
Kashmir because notwithstanding their
inherent and characteristic vacillation,
which India now thoroughly understands,
they are as good Indian nationals as
those in any other state of India. But at
the same time, it has to act against the
insurgents bent upon disrupting law and
order. Moreover, it has to act against
the mercenaries who project themselves as
jehadis fighting for the cause of Islam.
It is the former perception that becomes
a compulsion for the Indian government to
extend unilateral cease-fire. It is the
second compulsion that demands it to
retaliate when attacked.
Neither
the insurgents will relent nor the
security forces will remain confined to
barracks. As long as Pakistan, Saudi
Arabia and others back the insurgents,
the two sides will continue to clash.
Both are prepared for such an exigency
that is likely to continue for another
two or three decades. That would also be
the acclamatising period to come out of
the age old syndrome of blackmail.
How do the
two sides conjure up the grand finale of
the ongoing situation? The insurgents,
fired by religious zeal and motivated by
theo-fascist ideology, are convinced that
the role of liquidating kufr from the
globe is assigned to them by Allah and
the time has come when they have to act
for its realization. This was actually
the briefing for the fidayeen
who, for the first time in Muslim
history, surfaced under same nomenclature
with the emergence of Ismailis in Iran in
10/11th century AD
The plea
that in Pakistan, the APHC delegation
will speak to the militant leadership and
the leadership of extremist religious
organizations appears very unconvincing.
Conversely, the leadership of religious
extremist organizations will give them a
good briefing on the scheme of
contemplated Islamic caliphate and
Kashmirs centrality to that scheme.
Of course they will be promised positions
and status for more active pro-Pakistani
workers in the garb of Hurriyat,
Jamaatis, jihadis or any other name. The
whole discussion will be around
Islamization of Kashmir, something that
has already been achieved in fair
measure. APHC would not talk to militant
commanders in Kashmir because they know
these outfits are scarcely free to take
any decision or make a commitment.
The
Government of India has some compulsions
or perceptions to opt for continuation f
cease-fire. It is the duty of the
Government to provide comfort, relief and
facility to the common people of India so
that they are able to run the chores of
everyday life. If cease fire on the part
of the government helps save innocent
lives and spares common people the agony
of searches, checks, interrogation etc.,
well and good. Let it be announced.
But more
pressing imperative is the internal
condition of Pakistan. The control of
that country has now passed into the
hands of religious extremist groups,
their theo-fascist outfits supported by
the fanatical segments in the rank and
file of Pakistan army led by jehadi
Generals. The military\ rule is unable to
rein in these elements. Only two options
are left with it. One is a blitzkrieg on
the jehadis to smother them, and at the
same time be cprepared for plunging the
country into a cataclysmic civil war. The
other voption is that the military
government joins hands with the jihadis
and embarks on a massive programme of
fighting jihad first against India, the
closest neighbour under Kashmir pretext.
It is difficult to anticipate which of
the two options is likely to prevail.
Probably,
the military regime will not go in for
the first option. A large number of top
ranking officers in Pakistani army are
patently jehadis and followers of
Awans Tanzimul Ikhwan or such other
organizations. A divided army cannot
embark on a disastrous course of
confronting the mullas, the fanatics and
their musclemen in the name of lashkars,
jayshes and the rest of it. This is
because in such an eventuality, the
mullas will issue a fetwa against the
military rule labeling it un-Islamic.
The second
option seems to be the only option left
with the military regime. Even the
symptoms also speak of it. The
acceleration of armed operations by the
mercenaries in Kashmir, attacks on
sensitive targets, threats to the Indian
Prime Ministers person, acquisition
of more sophisticated weaponry by the
mercenaries, defiance of religious
extremist organizations of Pakistan of
the authority of the military ruler,
further influx of Afghan refugees into
NWFP of Pakistan, imposition of more
sanctions by the UN Security Council
against Taliban and subtle rivalry among
top brass of Pakistan army for the prized
position of the Chief of Army in the
event of removal of General Musharraf,
all point to the worsening of Indo-Pak
relations in military terms.
According
to the perception of GHQ and the ISI,
only a direct confrontation with India
can bail out the military rule in
Pakistan. This compulsion will make
Pakistan use the nuclear option because
Pakistan must use it against India
whatever the consequences. That will
satisfy the ego of those who live with
the Bangladesh shame.
As far as
China and the US are concerned, they will
prefer that Pakistan survive even as a
sick man but with the capacity to be a
thorn in Indias side. However, if
things come to a dead end, they will
prefer the second option for Pakistan and
even pat her when she decides to embark
on that course of disaster and
destruction.
India
cannot sleep over the gathering storm in
her neighbourhood, which will have direct
impact on her own affairs in a big way.
She has to give the quickly shaping
events the proper time and space to
develop into concrete form. She should
not precipitate an Indo-Pak war by
getting nervous at the intermittent
strikes by the mercenaries in Kashmir.
Rather she should do everything possible
to divert the danger to Pakistans
domestic scene. There is no civil society
in Pakistan of today. There is no civil
government in that country running
according to the law of the land. It is a
vast uncontrolled and rudderless mass of
people, looting the exchequer, hegemoning
over other provinces and peoples,
blackmailing the world powers by posing
as the champions of Islam and
deliberately preparing for a showdown
with India to avenge the Bangladesh
debacle. India must maintain her cool.
This is the time when she needs to repeat
as many times as possible the eternal
mantra of "if you want peace be
prepared for war".
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Diabetes:
No sweet news for South Asia
By Jyotshna Pandit
About 18 months
ago, the Indian Express carried a shocking news
item. Forty- five year-old Narsingh Pavla, a
Plumber by profession, suffered from a condition
called diabetic foot. He had to spend about Rs.
75 each month to have his foot bandaged and for
the medicines prescribed. This was within his
reach.
But when the foot
turned gangrenous and his doctor advised that it
be amputated, he had no means to raise the Rs
15,000 needed to carry out the operation in a
private hospital. So he chose what he thought was
a much cheaper way. He went to the railway track,
placed his leg in the right position and allowed
the approaching train to perform the job of
amputation...
Watching the
horror on your face as he relates this story, Dr.
A. Ramachandran, Managing Director of the
Diabetes Research Centre and M.V. Hospital for
Diabetes in Chennai, adds grimly: "Oh, there
are any number of such stories. There was once a
mother who sold her five-year-old child to buy
medicines for her diabetic husband..."
This, then, is the
economic toll diabetes takes on the poorest of
the poor in a country with no social security
system and where the quality and extent of
healthcare delivered by the government varies
widely among the States.
As indicated by
the extensive research done at the DRC, the
morbidity and mortality created by diabetes is
only bound to worsen in the coming years. Unless,
that is, the health care authorities plan for and
put in place an adequate system to tackle this
problem.
But, then, our
healthcare priorities seem incongruous. Says Dr.
Ramachandran: "For the cost of a kidney
transplant (the kidney is one of the casualties
of uncontrolled blood sugar) diabetes can be
prevented in about 10,000 people through proper
awareness and education. But, unfortunately, our
medical curriculum today focusses on diagnosing
and treating illnesses rather than on prevention.
And there is no diagnostic challenge and little
satisfaction in community care. It is time we
geared our medical training towards creating
social medical specialists rather than
hospital-based doctors." With South Asians
becoming more prone to diabetes than westerners,
Dr. Ramachandran says that South Asia is
increasingly becoming an important region for
pioneering diabetes prevention and management
programmes.
One of the factors
that is a clear pointer to South Asians having a
"higher predilection for diabetes" than
others, is obesity, a well-known risk factor for
diabetes. Compared to the western population, if
there is a slight increase in this risk factor in
a South Asian - who might have a slightly higher
calorific intake - the risk of his getting
diabetes is proportionately much higher than in
any other group.
"It looks
like Indians have a genetic tendency towards
diabetes," says Dr. Ramachandran. Explaining
what he terms a 'hypothesis', he says that
historically and traditionally, the South Asian
population used to adhere to certain seasonal
variations in food intake. During periods of
plenty, there was feasting; during droughts,
floods or other natural disasters, there was
fasting.
Over the
centuries, the metabolism got so structured or
adjusted that it would automatically move into a
"survival adaptation" mode. Just like
the credit and debit functions of a bank account,
it piled up extra calories during periods of
starvation. But with increasing food security
across the region, the periods of fasting
disappeared; there was a kind of mis-match, with
only "feasting, and more feasting".
Against this
'hypothesis', consider this factor. We have an
estimated 20-25 million diabetics in India! Move
the feasting analogy to urban India, where the
other risk factors for diabetes are ever-present:
sedentary life-style, stress and hypertension.
The incidence of diabetes in urban India
increases almost four-fold.
Research studies
done by out Centre in Chennai have shown that the
prevalence of diabetes among urban south Indians
has increased from 5.2 per cent in 1986 to 8.2
per cent in 1990, and to 11.6 per cent in
1996," says the diabetologist. More
frightening is that the prevalence rate had
jumped to over 14 per cent by 2000 and is
expected to climb to 17.4 per cent in the next
five years. "The WHO estimates that India
will have the largest number of diabetics in the
world and one of every four diabetics in the
world will be an Indian," he adds. So, we do
not only have the dubious distinction of being
the second most populated country; we also have
the highest estimated diabetic population in the
world. And we have no clue how to provide for the
healthcare needs of this population. This is the
unflattering conclusion one can safely come to.
If we compare our estimated diabetic population
with that of China, the most populous county,
there is reason for more concern. A 1995
international study says that against an
estimated 19.4 million adult Indian diabetics,
China had only 16 million in the same age group.
The projections for 2025 are positively scary:
57.2 million in India compared to 37.6 million in
China.
Dr. Ramachandran
has published 200 research papers in Indian and
international medical journals and authored
several chapters in international text-books. He
is also a member of the WHO consultative
committee on the classification and diagnosis of
diabetes. Based on the above findings and reading
the clear writing on the wall on the diabetes
threat to developing countries in the future, he
is engaged in a collective Asian initiative to
address the challenge posed by diabetes in this
region.
As the disease has
shown a clear pattern in this part of the world,
he feels that it will not suffice if we look to
the West for all the answers in preventing and
treating diabetes. Thanks to the genetic
predisposition of some of the Asian communities
towards diabetes, and the limited resources
available in developing countries to tackle the
multiple health problems associated with it, we
will have to have specific research on the
peculiar and different problems that diabetes
raises for us, says Dr. Ramachandran.
"We feel that
this emerging global epidemic is not receiving
the attention and importance it deserves in terms
of public health policy and determination of
research needs in developing countries in the
Middle East, Eastern Mediterranean and South-East
Asia. The alarming trends in its incidence and
prevalence in developing countries should be
taken seriously to ensure reduction in
preventable morbidity and mortality. Substantial
gains in health and quality of life and
compression of morbidity are feasible if proven
primary and secondary preventive measures are
taken against this disorder," he adds.
To take up this
"common crusade," the DRC is hosing a
two-day conference on "Diabetes in
Asia" in Chennai on February 18 and 19, in
which delegates from Pakistan, Bangladesh, Hong
Kong and the WHO are expected to participate.
INAV.
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