Information Technology---- it is still ‘advantage India’

By B K Karkra

A considerable concern has been recently voiced that the boom conditions witnessed in our information technology sector for the last couple of years are now tapering off. These fears, largely based on the slow down in the U.S. economy, are substantially misplaced. The secret of our success in this area does not lie in the American soil, but in our own brainpower. The euphoria over we being the 'silicon tigers' may not be fully justified (because of our weakness in the hardware area). Yet, we are certainly not the mere 'software coolies' of the world. We are, in fact, the envy of the world for our prowess in the software domain. We are at least the 'soft tigers', if not the 'silicon tigers'. In terms of the quality and cost put together, we are decidedly the best option in the world today. No wonder then that in the face of all fears of down turn, we have been able to achieve 52 % growth in our software exports and services in the first quarter of the year. Now, this means that we are earning nearly 21.5 % of our export revenues through our sheer brainpower, without parting with any of our material resources like the iron ore, Basmati rice and cashew nuts etc.

The Indian immigrants have already established I.T. companies in the U.S. Silicon Valley that account for a market value of $ 235 billion. That should, in itself, give some indication what we can eventually achieve in this area. The nation must not forget that our foreign exchange reserves had dipped to just one billion U.S. dollars during the Gulf War and now our software alone earns upwards of six billion U.S. dollars per annum. This works out to more than twice the defence budget of Pakistan. According to the projections of our Ministry of Information Technology and the NASSCOM, these earnings are likely to rise to $ eight and a half billion by the end of this year and $ fifty billion by 2008. If that really works, we shall no more be one of the poorest nations of the world. Thus, the I.T. has already brought lot of cheer to us on the economic, if not the technology front.

Our big leap forward in the area of information technology is a phenomenon akin to the discovery of oil in the Bombay high. The country would have been in considerable economic crunch if either of these momentous developments had not taken place. Our software engineers are, undoubtedly, earning a fabulous amount of foreign exchange for the country both in the form of exports as well as remittances from abroad and that is providing a cover for our numerous politico-economic weaknesses elsewhere. Besides, the Indian nationals and persons of Indian origin have a powerful presence in the U.S. Silicon Valley.

Though America, thus, means quite a lot to our I.T. related endeavours, our fortunes are, by no means, tied down to the America alone. According to an U.K. Government report, out of the18257 foreign I.T. professionals who came to Britain in 2000, 11474 were from India (by the way, the second highest number of such professionals who entered Britain came from the U.S.A. and many of them were again the persons of Indian origin). France and Germany are also fully aware of the Indian prowess in the software field and they are ready with their red carpets for our talent. The opportunities for our whizkids are, indeed, tremendous, as this year itself the West European I.T. budget is as high as $ 364 billion and this is likely to rise to $ 585 billion by 2004.

Our I.I's.T. have, thus, done a world of good to our economy and we can hope for a rich and steady flow of foreign exchange to our coffers through our I.T. related services to the world during the years to come. Our I.T. economy may be slowing down due to a downturn in the U.S. economy, but it is still growing at good enough a pace. The estimated rate of growth is somewhere around 30 to 45 %, despite all the negative news. We do not have to get disheartened over some dot COM companies going bust and the recent layoffs in the I.T. sector. It cannot but be a temporary phenomenon and perhaps a case of some weak entities trying to ride the bandwagon for quick buck and falling off it. There is no way for this revolution to roll back. The I.T. has only one way to go from here-forward.

There are, however, two areas of concern for us--- no, the recessionary trends in the U.S. economy is not one of these and in fact, such cyclic factors should not cause us undue concern. Our first cause of real worry should be that, even after reaching this far, we are merely allowing ourselves to be used by others. We have taken a decisive first step and declared our genius. Sadly, however, some thing seems to be holding us from taking the crucial second step of rising in the value chain. We appear to have a tendency towards some sort of quick profit booking and in the process, often end up selling ourselves short. Rather than cashing on an idea to the hilt, we tend to encash it prematurely.

Somehow, we are always willing to settle for the second spot when the win is well within our reach. We have to raise our confidence levels further and reach a stage where we do not have to be unduly worried about the recessionary trends in a foreign economy. We have to learn to think big and must not suffer from self-doubts. Just think of the time when some of us thought that our I.T. bubble would burst as soon as the Y2K problem was out of the way in the world ! We do not have to work to a brief all the time and should also be ready now to do something that would stand against our own name. Almost all the leading software outfits of the world, including the Microsoft, Oracle, IBM and Lucent etc., have set up their research and development centres in India. These would hopefully provide a push to the domestic R and D effort also.

Secondly, we also have to keep in mind that many of the Asian nations are watching us with envy for all the money that we are making for our software services. Our one advantage over them is our proficiency in the English language that has been their area of weakness. They are trying to plug this loophole fast and shall shortly stand as our competitors in the world market. We have, thus, also to see that we do not get priced out even as 'software coolies' of the world. For this, we shall we shall have to pay attention to the software profiles like the enterprise systems, net design and net administration etc. that are emerging important lately. Besides, we should look to destinations beyond the U.S. and create conditions within the country where bulk of our I.T. abilities get utilised at the domestic level itself. This, if it works, would give a great push to the other segments of our economy.

Information Technology is, indeed, an area of self-discovery for us. We may not be able to maintain the scorching pace that we have set for ourselves during the last couple of years. However, we have to see to it that we do not fade out in the face of competition from the countries with better work culture. The space that we have created so painstakingly in this sunrise industry must not be surrendered for any reason whatsoever.

Politics of refugees in South Asia

By Ram Niwas Beniwal

The phenomenon of refugee is not new to the region of South Asia and has almost become a permanent feature of the democratic/authoritarian South Asian politics. Though struggling under the heavy economic and political strain of hosting refugees, the region seems paradoxically comfortable with the large number of the destitute. The refugee populations in South Asia constitutes nearly 12 per cent of the total refugees in the world. These refugees are a product of different types of crisis such as armed uprising, communal clashes, secessionist activities, displacement caused by major river project, political asylum etc. In South Asia, India represent the main centre of such movements and has hosted millions of refugee over the past fifty years. At present it continues to host over 292,000 refugees of various nationalities including Tibetans, Sri Lankans, Chakmas (Bangladeshi), Afghans, Sudanese, Iranians and Iraqis.

Though, South Asia has the fourth largest refugee population in the world, yet none of the South Asian country has either defined the term refugee or established procedures to determine refugee status. The intermingling of refugee and migratory movements makes it pertinent that a legal definition be adopted so as to enable refugees to receive the humanitarian treatment they deserve. Under international law a refugee is defined as a person who ''owing to a well-founded fear of being persecuted, for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group of political opinion, is outside the country of his nationality and is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of the protection of that country''. However, some countries in Africa and Central America have adopted a wider definition, including persons fleeing from violent conflict and gross violations of human rights.

The refugee problem in the region has been there due to numerous factors- the majority-minority number games in terms of region, ethnic composition, political authority and psychological one-upmanship have conspicuously figured in almost all the countries in South Asia, which people fled. Consequently, refugee problem is undoubtedly the most important phenomenon of contemporary South Asian politics. Therefore, refugee problem and its linkage with international relations among South Asian countries in general, and India's foreign policy in particular, is a very crucial problem for an indepth analysis. Hence, a critical appraisal of the phenomenon is not only pertinent but also essential. Besides, there is a need to examine the implications of the refugee problem on India's domestic and foreign policies.

Politics of refugees in South Asia could broadly be categorised into three types. First, refugees have been used as means of achieving cultural homeogeneity or asserting the dominance of one ethnic community over another in socio-economic and political areas.

Second, it has been utilized as a means of dealing with political dissidents particularly hostile to the regime and class enemies. Finally, it is considered as part of a strategy to achieve a foreign policy objective. Besides, in many circumstances, outside powers do play a role in changing the conditions that force people to leave their home countries. The role can be supportive, in the form of emergency assistance, development aid, trade or investment etc. It can also take the form of intervention in the internal affairs of a State through diplomacy, the withdrawal of support, economic sanctions and even militancy intervention.

Unlike many other regions where external powers were engaged, the conflicts and subsequent refugee crises of South Asia generated little outside interest. During the Cold War, apart from the conflict in Afghanistan, the issue at the root of most of the region's conflicts and refugee exoudses were not linked to the East-West conflict and only marginally affected the broader strategic issues in which the superpower were engaged.

The international situation of refugee is undergoing a sea change in the post-Cold War period and becoming extremely complex and enlarged. Theoretical debates among academicians and practitioners are going on the removal of grey areas in refugee studies and formulate a more befitting theory taking congnizance of the new realities of the international system. The objectives of such effors have been to enhance the boundaries of the growing field. Refugee movements in South Asia have become central components of regional conflicts involving local actors.

India has always been a host to refugees coming from many neighbouring and other countries. It has been the centre stage of South Asian refugee movement. Therefore, any problem of mass migration that emerged in South Asia will be India-centric. Because, politically, geographically, demographically as also in terms of international relations, India dominates South Asia. India having a large size with accommodative federal structure in which the constituent States have more independence and political space, the refugees of South Asian countries have always found the possibility of taking shelter in India more attractive both in terms of the politico-economic situations and human acceptability.

Also politico-social adaptability in India is better than other neighbouring countries. Political upheaval occurring in unstable countries bordering India often created situations forcing citizens of these countries to seek refuge elsewhere. Additionally, ethnic and religious persecution forced minorities to join similar people in India's multi-ethnic and multilingual society. The demographic pressure could also disturb the absorption capacity of the local host community. This capacity is defined as community's willingness and ability to absorb an influx of refugees. Local absorption capacity refers to the economic, social and cultural factors, which affect the local receiving community's response to refugees and influence the policy of host country towards the refugees.

The refugees could turn out to be a serious political risk under various circumstances that have direct bearing on the foreign policy consideration of the host country. India is no exception to such phenomenon. In India refugees have created very serious political threat as these politically heterogeneous forces started aligning and realigning with elements that were inimical to the political stability in the host country, i.e. India.

Refugees affect the economic capacity of India in both positive and negative manners. Positively, refugees have been of tremendous support to the local economy as they were found to be willing to take up jobs, which had no local takers. And local people, often use the infrastructure created for refugees in and around the camp sites, without any resistance from refugees. In negative sense, this region has also witnessed strong protests and upheavals against the refugees, whenever the strong protests and upheavals against the refugees, whenever the host has felt some sort of intrusion into their indigenousness. Besides this, the local people have also adversely reacted to the purported social behaviour of refugees, such as criminality, welfare dependency and delinquency. If the host country accept the economic assistance from any international organisation like UNHCR, then it put pressure on host government towards more positve policy for refugees.

Refugees affect the foreign policy of a country through two core categories of factors, (a) international relations, and; (b) national security considerations. The illegal crossing of people from one country to another usually affects international relations between receiving and sending countries. Sending and receiving countries can manipulate refugee flows so as to embarrass or pressurise each other.

Sending countries creates or condone refugee flow for a number of reasons: to destablize the receiving country, force recognition of the sending country, or to stop interference by the receiving country in its affairs etc.

A three dimensional national security-strategic, regime structural conception is often used to explain the ways in which refugees could threaten security. Within this scheme the national security is compromised when one or more of these three dimensions are likely to be threatened or eroded.

Strategically, the host is threatened when refugees are armed and the power of host country looses control over them. Structurally, it is threatened when by increasing demand over the scarce resources reaches the stage of conflict. Regime security could be threatened when refugees enter the domestic political process and create pressures on the government.

Though India has been a very generous country in hosting refugee populations, it, like the rest of South Asia, has no domestic law on refugees, nor is it a party to the 1951 Convention on Refugees and its 1967 Protocol. It is because many South Asian states in general and India in particular feel that signing these conventions could constrict their freedom of action in dealing with unwanted migrations. Consequently, in the absence of laws in South Asian countries, refugees are handled under provisions for foreigners, which do not acknowledge ther special humanitarian situation, which do not acknowledge their special humanitarian situation. One of the thrust areas of UNHCR's advocacy efforts in India has therefore been to highlight the absence and the need for law to protect the rights of refugees. Besides this, given the sensitivity and resistance of South Asian countries to adopting the 1951 Refugee Convention, a regional level framework based on ''regional specificities'' have also been put forward as an alternative. At the regional level, the SAARC can play an instrumental role in formulating a regional convention on refugee management.

PTI Feature