EDITORIAL
NO
QUALMS, INDEED !
It is, indeed, remarkable
that the legions of politicians who have prospered
taking, due and undue, advantage of the Indian Government
and the nation feel no qualms in cursing the same
government, people and the nation. It is anybody's guess
how many of the present day 'leaders' of the Hurriyat
could have survived the attacks, reprisals and 'lessons'
from their own militants had not the security agencies in
the State protected them, directly and indirectly.....more
A
HUGE HAND
The destruction wrought in
the State by Pakistan is heavy by any reckoning.
Countless houses have been gutted, score of school
buldings have been destroyed, dozens upon dozens of
bridges have been burnt down. A whole community has been
got exiled from their homes. And, people have been killed
indiscriminately, mindlessely, causelessly. The largest
chunk of these is young men and women who would have
grown, studied and become earning hands for their
families.........more
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Kashmir
is not Islamic
war or jihad
Men, Matter, Memories
By M L Kotru
No matter what the outcome of Foreign Secretary Chokila
Iyer's meeting in Colombo last week with her
Pakistani......more
Communist
contortions
of nationalism.......
Yours Randomly,
By Dr R L Bhat
Indian nationalism which had been an incipient
undercurrent of the sub-continental psyche received its
highest..more
Militancy
and children
in J&K
By Daya Sagar
As regards the State of J&K the Armed Conflicts need
to be seen in reference to the ongoing insurgency and
militancy. .....more
Implications
of downgrading Indias sovereign railings
By S. V. Vaidyanathan
The downgrading of Indias sovereign rating by
Standard and Poors followed ........more
|
EDITORIAL
NO QUALMS, INDEED !
It is, indeed, remarkable
that the legions of politicians who have prospered
taking, due and undue, advantage of the Indian Government
and the nation feel no qualms in cursing the same
government, people and the nation. It is anybody's guess
how many of the present day 'leaders' of the Hurriyat
could have survived the attacks, reprisals and 'lessons'
from their own militants had not the security agencies in
the State protected them, directly and indirectly. It is
a common belief that Dr Guru, the one time high priest of
'separatism', would not have died had he been under
security protection. As for the other leaders they have
been able to function only because of the exertions of
the security agencies. Of course, all deaths have not
been, could not be, prevented but the fact cannot be
denied that but for their presence many more prominences
would have been wiped out by the same marauders. And, the
free expression they are enjoying is because of these
very exertions. Do the militants allow any free
expressions to their own 'leaders', much less the
fractious leaders who deal in subterfuges? Many may say
that it is providence protecting them though, at the same
time, they would never hesitate asking more and more
security covers. They would do well to keep account of
the personnel who have been killed in the militant
attacks upon them. That way they may at least pay some of
their due debts to these men, who have sacrificed their
lives to protect them. Of course, their debts to the
Indian nation will never be paid, because they are simply
overwhelming. They can however, stop adding to these
debts by being less political and more sincere in their
assertions against India.
There is a school of
thought that holds that the 'separatist leaders' would
never dream of seceding from India. They are fully aware
how free, how equitious, how caring the Indian
dispensation is. They are also cognizant of how chilling
the Pak situation is, with its dictatorships, general
mayhem and restricted freedoms. The separatist rhetoric,
explains the school, has two objectives. First and
foremost is to gain prominence, support and
'constituencies', both within and outside the State. The
second objective is that by constantly raising the bogey
they coerce the center to yield higher quantums of
assistance on the one hand on the other escape any proper
reckoning of their actions and performances. Of course,
it is when they assume power, and every outfit comes to
do that in due course. That is why, says this analysis,
they never go the whole hog, would never go the whole
hog. They can never gain prominence and power in Pakistan
that easily. And, few can be sure that they would not
sooner be hanged from the Lahore forte, as Farooq
Abdullah says.
Indeed, much of the talk
of 'regional and local aspirations' in the whole of India
is a comouflage for personal promotions as much as a
contrivance to achieve those ends. Whole-scale parties
have exploited the people and the nation thus to rise to
power. When these same 'aspirations' find their support
base growing they invariably become 'national parties'.
From NTR to Mulayam Singh there is one long line of
politicians who have thus deluded the people and done the
nation much harm in the process. In this State this short
cut to power and prominence has taken really dangerous
dimensions, with the leaders ending up faning whole
disaffections because the innocent people, who do not see
through the 'assertions' of the clever leaders, take them
on their word and end up with a destabilised psyche. When
the right time comes the 'leaders' without any qualms
take the reigns of power, because they 'know' what they
have been fighting for. But the people get badly
dispirited. And, the ground is ripe for the 'next'
crusader to step in, to exploit the people, the State and
the nation. Without any qualms, of course.
A HUGE HAND
The destruction wrought in
the State by Pakistan is heavy by any reckoning.
Countless houses have been gutted, score of school
buldings have been destroyed, dozens upon dozens of
bridges have been burnt down. A whole community has been
got exiled from their homes. And, people have been killed
indiscriminately, mindlessely, causelessly. The largest
chunk of these is young men and women who would have
grown, studied and become earning hands for their
families. Instead, they have been fed to a war that
serves only Pak interest and pampers its ego of having
somehow 'taught India a lesson' or as Musharraf put it
'taken revenge upon India'. As the recent report details,
thirteen thousand of them have been killed since 1990.
Five hundred have died in just the inter-gang rivalries
that also claimed about two hundred of their relatives.
But when the mad-hatters die, they never die alone. The
thirteen thousand took another ten thousand civilians
lives with them and three thousand security men. Twenty
six thousand deaths from a people who would not, earlier,
go near a gun may be an achievement for Pakistan, but
what does it bring to Kashmiris?
Once in early nineties a
Kashmiri young man asked his militant peer: how come the
same gun that he had been given to fight a jihad with,
was in the hands of an Assamese fighting against
Bangladesh immigrants and in that of a Naga fighting for
a tribalism. The answer was typical: it is not for you to
ask questions. None asked questions and arms, huge piles
of it, were slipped into the Valley. Twenty-two thousand
AK type guns have so far been recovered, ten thousand
pistols, one thousand machine guns. The general
impression is that this is just he tip of the proverbial
iceberg, that lots more remain dumped there. Indeed what
was once an immaculate paradise replete with sagacious
men and svelte wome is a powder keg ready to explode
literally-- so much of explosive power is hidden there.
So far 23 tonnes of explosives and 52 quintals of RDX
have been recovered. How much more lies strewn around is
anybody's guess. The supplies have been massive; the
inventory has been equally varied. Everything from cordex
wire to rocket boosters and pilotless - craft has been
seized in colossal quantities. All that has shown its
effects in the deathly destruction that has been there.
A quarter lakh deaths
because a mullah somewhere wants to gain access to
'heaven', a general there wants to gain power and keep
it, a people there has gone deluded enough not to think
of nor approve of any other way to direct their national
effort and energies. Pakistan has been doing what the
composite delusions there demand, but do the Kashmiris
need to be willing tools for carrying them out? Over the
past ten years Pakistan has purchased arms worth 4.4
billion dollars from the open markets and sent them
across the border to the willing agents of its
egoistical, hallucinatory binges. And given them death
and destruction in its wake. Of course, the situation in
Pakistan itself is no better. They have themselves
recovered three lakh rifles during the past year or so.
That State is riven with conflicts strewn with guns and
gang-wars, but why did the peaceful Kashmiris need to
import that culture? To taste death it its foulest fang?
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Kashmir
is not Islamic war or jihad
Men, Matter, Memories
By M L
Kotru
No matter
what the outcome of Foreign Secretary
Chokila Iyer's meeting in Colombo last
week with her Pakistani counterpart,
Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee did
well earlier to set the record straight
so far as his agenda in any future talks
with the Pakistani military ruler Gen
Pervez Musharraf goes. It was vintage
Vajpayee that afternoon in Parliament,
when, days after the inquisitors had
their say, accusing him of everything
short of a sell-out, he spelt out his
version of Agra in clear-cut tones. In
the process he explained what he made of
Musharraf's naivette, what his own
expectations had been and how he felt let
down in the end. If some thought that it
was the usual soft-pedalling of what was
perhaps a diplomatic disaster at Agra,
Vajpayee was very clear in his mind that
the reality was far from that perception.
Predictably he did not shut the door on
resumption of talks with Musharraf but he
made no bones about what the agenda would
be whenever they meet next. It could not
be Kashmir, Kashmir, Kashmir. A future
dialogue on Indo Pak relations could not
be held hostage to Musharraf's whims.
There is much more at stake in Kashmir
than merely winning or losing media wars.
Kashmir is not an Islamic war or jihad.
It has a direct bearing on the future of
the sub-continental polity. It is for
Pakistan to decide whether it wants to
use Kashmir as a bridge or continue to
make it a bone of contention. Either way,
Vajpayee appeared to suggest, that there
would be no solution to the problem on
terms sought to be laid down by Musharraf
and his men.
The
problem with Musharraf is that he speaks
with two voices. One voice is obviously
intended to earn brownie points
internationally, the one that seeks to
project him as a man of peace, willing to
go the extra mile along the path of
reconciliation with an inimical India.
The other voice is fine-tuned to remain
in step with the mullahs and radicals
within his country which forces him to
take the line that there is no terrorism
in Kashmir and that Pakistan has nothing
to do with cross-border terror.
For the
benefit of the internationally community
he has kept up the charade of local
elections a lead up to higher levels
nationally. The local elections may have
been held on a non-party basis to his
consternation most grassroots political
parties are back in place. That certainly
will not prevent Musharraf from going
ahead with raising an Ayub Khan-like
electoral college to finally gain
domestic legitimacy for himself or he may
even do a Zia by going ahead with a
non-party election at the top layer as
wel and then handpick a Prime Minister
who (like Zia's Junejo) could be kicked
out any time. Pakistani military
dictators have not been known to accept
court to orders nor even the pledges they
themselves make. Musharraf, for the
record, has another year to usher in
democracy in his country. The question is
what kind of democracy is it going to be.
If he is to stick to his earlier
Attaturkian posturing he must keep the
mullahs out of the reckoning. Yes, that
will mean continued reliance on the
military in matters of State but that'
the only way he can do an Attaturk. The
mullahs and the clergy would have to be
sidelined from the electoral process in
that event. Can he afford to do it? He
can, if his commanders stay loyal and he
shows the necessary ruthlessness to put
down the mullahs.
But
given the Kashmir backdrop it seems
unlikely he can get the mullahs and their
jihadi groups off his back. He needs them
if he has to keep the Kashmir pot
boiling. Only the other day one of the
better known Pakistani Jihadi leaders was
hectoring India on Kashmir on the
American CNN. As a counter to ''Indian
barbarity'' in Kashmir his own and other
jihadi groups, said the beard on the
idiot box, the jihadis would strike in
the Indian heartland, target top Indian
political and military leaders. And he
said it with the straightest of faces.
For the
rest you have to listen to the rantings
of the Lahore-based Dawarul Irshad and
its armed wing, Lashkar-e-Toiba or to the
top leaders of Harkatul Mujahideen and
the Jamaat-e-Islami. They given you the
impression that Pakistani is about to
launch a massive terrorist assault all
over India. One of the Jihadi outfits has
welcomed the emergence in India of
fanatic fringe organisations like the
Bajrang Dal, the Shiv Sena and the VHP
promising to one day confront the Hindu
chauvnists against the might of Islamic
forces. One doesn't have to really refute
the absurd position of these Hindu
''organisations'', but the fact is that
their noise level is inversely
proportional to their marginalised
position in the overall Indian picture.
In
Musharraf's Pakistan the Jihadis have
spread their tentacles all over the land
and what's more they seem to be
prospering. And more disturbingly for us,
they seem to be pushing in as many
mercenaries into Jammu and Kashmir as
they can. The Jihadi rhetoric at the
moment appears to have gained much
ascendancy across the border and its
ramifications are becoming visible in
Jammu and Kashmir with terrorists
throwing acid on innocent women students,
insisting on men sporting beards and
wearing salwar kameez a la Taliban. How
absurd must all this appear to young
Kashmiri men and women when they see,
courtesy PTV, their Pakistani
counterparts (lumpen apart) in Lahore and
Karachi sporting trendy clothes, doing
song and dance routines, walking down the
ramps.
And
this finally brings me to the ''bold''
and ''dramatic''- ''draconian'', if you
will-decisions taken in New Delhi the
other day about how to tackle terrorist
activity. If merely by declaring certain
parts of the State as a disturbed area
the problem of terrorism could be solved
then the problem in the Kashmir province
should have ended many years ago when
district after district was declared a
disturbed area. By extending the
''disturbed'' net to Jammu province, I am
afraid, the problem will not be solved.
Only you will give an incompetent State
Government further tools to entrench
itself in power.
Under a
similar earlier dispensation in Kashmir a
unified command comprising the Army,
Border Security Force, CRPF etc has
already been in existence for long. Top
commanders of the security forces form
the core of the command centre with the
Chief Minister at its head. What we have
seen of the functioning of the command
has been hardly encouraging. For one
thing, a peripatetic Farooq Abdullah is
usually unable to chair the unified
command meetings; second, inter-service
rivalries, dictated more by rank than
substance, rarely permit cohesive action.
I don't
see the situation changing in Jammu. If
the Army is to be at the heart of
counter-terrorist activity it follow that
it should have the major say in policy,
of course, not to the exclusion of the
views of other para or civilian forces
engaged in the operation. The Chief
Minister should come in only when the
political aspects of a particular
operation are involved. For the rest,
once the task has been identified, the
execution should be left to the field
commanders. The Security Forces should in
no case be converted into handmaidens of
the discredited political leadership in
the State.
We have to
remember that Pervez Musharraf, the
commando, has given no indication of his
willingness to rein in the terrorists.
His drum-beaters have been going round
the world once again plugging the line
that terrorism in Kashmir is in reality a
freedom movement and that no Pakistanis
are engaged in it. Were it really an
indigenous problem we would not have been
bombarded day after day with those fiery
jihadi invocations from the Pakistani
soil and aired (with nauseating fudging
of video tapes) by PTV with unfailing
regularity. If the terrorist threat in
Jammu and Kashmir is to be countered
effectively the unified command will have
to become a reality. Military decisions
should be left to the men from the
military.
The State
government should concentrate on
addressing the problems faced by the
common people which it unfortunately has
failed to do so far. I have a gut feeling
that the raising of additional village
defence committees, hopefully better
armed, too, is not going to solve the
problem. It will become another vehicle
for politicians to promote their vested
interests.
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Communist
contortions of nationalism.......
Yours Randomly,
By Dr R L
Bhat
Indian
nationalism which had been an incipient
undercurrent of the sub-continental
psyche received its highest assertion
during the first half of the twentieth
century. Most probably, the Muslims would
have been an inalienable part of it.
Indeed, the Urdu Pess till 1920 comes
through a strong supporter of the
nationalist urge. By then it probably
caught up with the high priests of
religious-nationalism Sir Syed et. al.
and by forties when freedom looked
imminent, became a rabid communalist
organ for propagation of whatever Jinnah
proclaimed over the Muslim League
platforms. All this can counter to the
nationalist fervor that was forcing the
imperialism out of the country. Its clear
aim was to stem the rising nationalism.
Though the realization of the nationalist
urges was too deep to be drowned by this
effort, it did succeed in denting the
edge. A section of the people was finally
persuaded not to be a part of the
nationalism.
Of course,
the greatest beneficiaries of this
fracture were the English rulers. They
had been fostering, if not actually
orchestering, this effort from the days
of Aligarh movement. The other movement
that came to subvert the idea of Indian
nationalism during the forties and
following decades was communism. This was
a movement that was actually suppressed
by the British in its formative years.
But by the forties a realignment of the
forces in Europe had taken place. Stalin,
who at one time had been an ally to
Hitler, became a partner in the
Anglo-American effort against the axis
powers after Germany invaded Russia. The
Indian communism received orders to
support the empire and the faithful
followers shifted their alliance.
Actions of
the communists during this time against
the freedom struggle have been well
documented. But the contortions this
movement imposed upon Indian nationalism
after independence have not received
equal notice. Over the past half a
century they have been undermining the
idea of Indian nationalism, ridiculing
it, loosening every brick in its
foundation as if in a grand conspiracy.
It is said that they have mostly been
well-meaning souls with good of the
Indian people at their hearts but then,
as the well known axiom says, more
calamities have been brought about in
this world by sincere intensions than
wicked ones. They did it all from the
high pedestal of an ideology. Their
motivation was promotion of the ideology
that they thought good rather than
wholesome, unprejudiced pursuit of
knowledge. That was an age when the
communist ideology was synonymous with
liberation, humanism, emancipation...
indeed, all that has been good in the
human thought.
The
oppression of the centuries weighed heavy
on the minds of the people. Poor came to
be easily perceived as an entity, a
class. Generations of thinkers have slid
down this slope to land in a milieu that
rejected society, its norms and
conventions, nationalism, its premises
and parameters, in favour of an ideology
that was supposed to be universal. When
it was not clear communism, it was
socialism or a loose leftist leaning.
People tended to diistinguish the three
but they were only phases, stages along
the steep climb up the pure Marxist
ideology. Only it was neither pure nor an
ideology. Its purity became suspect when
Commintern, the international communist
organization became an organ for
advancing Russian interests. Its ideology
betrayed itself when it aligned with
fascism, Nazism and then imperialism for
short-term benefits.
But its
blithe adherents in here, and in many
other places too, saw none of these. They
didn't see the clear rejection of
universalism when the Russian and Chinese
influences (interests) carved the Indian
communists into two mutually antagonist
groups. But the most glaring blindness
was shown with respect to the national
here. When communist movement failed to
become a nation-wide force it set about
fanning regional and sectarian
indentities to gain pockets of influence.
All the 'regional leaders' who have over
the years come to represent local
aspirations have been stranded there by
he communist, socialist or leftist boats.
They remain covert negators of the Indian
nationalism. On the other hand, thousands
of other communist 'recruits',
academicians, philosophers, social
scientists embarked upon a vast project
to belabor every symbol of national
identity.
Indian
society which had resisted the Islamic
and Christian wedges, had fought the
British efforts to split it for their
imperial ends, was cleaved vertically by
those soft spoken seers who saw no good
anywhere there. There were negative
influences in the Indian society for
sure, but it had a far greater positive
content. It is this positive fund that
has sustained this civilization on its
long history and prevented its being
effaced like its fellow travelers. It was
also the reason why the communism had not
succeeded here. So its foot soldiers took
to dismantling the society, bit by bit,
part by part, all through its languages,
cultures, social structure, literature
and art, philosophy... everything that
came handy. Indian philosophy was
'proved' to be nothing', the society
'exploitative', the mores were 'shown' to
be 'wrong' and every achievement was
soundly trashed.
The truth
that contemporaneous societies and
polities in other parts of the world were
nowhere near the Indian standards but
were downright brutal was never told. The
communist effort simply castigated the
Indian society, culture and ethos. It
could not but dampen the nationalism. It
did so. The nationalism that was so
emphatic at the start of independence has
almost receded into that incipient mode
that had seen the nation divided into
countless 'identities' and to become easy
prey for invaders to trample it under
their feet. If today the nation is
searching for elements to assert its
idea, it is thanks to these denigrators
who have caused that fervor to be
dissipated, knowingly or in ignorance.
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Militancy
and children in J&K
By Daya Sagar
As regards the
State of J&K the Armed Conflicts need to be
seen in reference to the ongoing insurgency and
militancy. More particularly after 1989-90. The
Psychological, Physical and Social angles should
be kept in view while looking at the Child Groups
in J&K.
They are from
those parents who are migrants like majority of
Kashmiri Pandits who have left Kashmir Valley,
Hindus who have left their homes in Districts of
Doda, Udhampur, Rajouri and upper reaches; as
well as those including even Muslims of Kashmir
Valley who have left remote villages and come to
the towns of Kashmir Division of J&K.
This category is
under influence of terror.
They suffer from
poor health.
They are in many
cases under Psychological depression.
The environment
and memories of the times of their displacement
have in some cases polluted their minds socially.
Those who are
still living back in the areas under regular
armed attacks by the insurgents, militants and
actions by the security forces too are adversely
affected. They suffer from :-
(a) Heavy stress
(b) Depressions (c) Poor Health (d) Increased
infant deaths (e) Mothers under heavy fear
psychosis there by retarding the growth of babies
both physically and mentally.
Children who get
injured or hit as a result of on going armed
conflicts and belong to poor parents from remote
area are worst sufferers since medical aid is
remotely available to them and hence the
handicaps produce more affects on them and they
have to bear it for decades ahead.
The sick children
fail to get immediate medical attention due to
restrictions imposed on movement due to
insurgency and combat operations; and more
particularly when located in far-flung and
backward areas. Even high fever could make child
lose his life or may become physically or
mentally disabled for life. And cases have surely
been there.
Children of poor
parents are mostly the one who suffer physically
and educationally. The resourceful parents have
mostly moved the children from disturbed areas
(even out side J&K) and have secured quality
education for such children. But those from poor
parents have stayed back in militancy affected
areas where schools remain closed and they do not
have peace at home for the studies as required in
today's competitive world.
The worst affected
are children of poor parents (b) Children from
Backward areas (c) Children from Far flung Areas
(d) Children from Rural areas (e) Orphans (f)
Those living among one particular religious
community (g) Those who see their nears and dears
being simply on the basis of theppir community or
religion.
The worst damage
to Innocent Minds (Children) lies in... life long
hatred in their mind against those who made them
to leave their home, or killed their parents, or
subjected them to physical stress and
particularly when it turns towards those
innocents who unfortunately belong to the
religion or the community of the militants or
insurgents thereby damaging the social matrix of
the society. And similarly the minds of the young
of other community get polluted when there is no
one near them to protect them from the might and
wrong information campaigns of the insurgents
against the members of the society as well as the
security forces who may belong to other
community.
They have been
made handicapped physically, educationally,
economically and in their capacity to build their
future. They have been socially pushed back,
those who have lived in 12 years of armed
conflicts (acts) have very less capacity to take
to good economic means of living and there are
all chances for exploitation of such Grown up
Children by the militants, criminals and
religious fundamentalists.
The problem has to
be hence seen more in backward, rural, poor,
illiterate and innocent people who have been much
exploited by their fortunes and could still be
exploited by those who have no regard for Human
Values.
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Implications
of downgrading Indias sovereign ratings
By S. V. Vaidyanathan
The downgrading of
Indias sovereign rating by Standard and
Poors followed by a revision of the foreign
currency rating outlook for corporate
"dadies" such as Reliance Industries,
Indian Oil Corporation, NTPC and Larsen &
Toubro, is a warning signal to the mandarins of
the North Block.
What is new in the
S&Ps rating? And in Moodys?
Continued fiscal slippages at the Centre and in
the States this is not news nor the plunge
in tax revenue collections in the first quarter
this year. Who does not know that the Vajpayee
government is too deeply caught in day-to-day
fire-fighting to spare much time for further
reforms in the economy? Nor is Moodys
perturbation with the emergence of scams in the
financial sector so much of a profoundly unknown
dimension of the Indian economy.
The reported
reactions of the Finance Minister, Mr. Yashwant
Sinha, and the Governor of the Reserve Bank of
India, Dr. Bimal Jalan, and the
not-so-coincidental "dismissive" mode
of the stock and forex markets, are not mere
manifestations of some bravado or sheer
unwillingness to listen to the voices of the
credit-rating agencies. There is no flaw in the
perception that the fundamentals in the economy
continue to be strong relative to the actualities
of many other developing countries including the
erstwhile "tiger economies".
Forex reserves of
$ 43.6 billion are a "big deal" for a
country that faced the ignominy of an external
debt default, only about ten years ago! A GDP
growth rate that may cross 6 per cent this year
and an inflation rate of just around 6 per cent
in terms of the Consumer Price Index, are not
precisely the pointers to a meltdown!
With the data
system in the economy becoming much more
transparent than in the pre-1991 period,
credit-rating itself, perhaps, is becoming a
"sunset profession." The policymakers
may not be far wrong in treating S&Ps,
Moodys and company and their qualitative
assessments of the economy as being premature or
even tendentious.
Yet, it would be
foolhardy for the policy establishment not to see
in these "downgrading messages" a
growing apprehension among international
investment analysts that India is rapidly
forfeiting its credentials as an emerging
"favourite" among investment
destinations in the developing world.
The Enron tangle
is enough to proclaim India as a classic example
of "collapse of a reform agenda,"
regardless of who, between Enron and the
Maharashtra Electricity Board, is "more
wrong". If the truth is that the FDI
scenario for India is quite bleak, we do not need
S&Ps, to "break it" for us!
Leave alone the
FDI component in the external sector. The tidings
from the export front are not too comforting.
When the U.S.
economy catches a cold, the world is set on a
bout of sneezing thus goes the new wisdom
on globalisation. Indias exports to the
U.S. account for hardly 2 per cent of the total
imports of the U.S. Yet, to the extent that for
India, these amount to 20 per cent of its global
exports, any shrinkage presages a
disproportionate order of dislocation to its own
economy.
The slowdown in
the U.S. economy and its reverberations across
the developed world obviously are bound to impact
adversely on the Asian economies as well. The
first quarter data covering April-June 2001 for
the South Korea, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia
and the Philippines, Japan constitute a
mega-crisis by itself with the government largely
benumbed by the economic slowdown, not knowing
where to draw the line between a cheap money
policy and an expansionist fiscal stance.
The first two
months of the current fiscal year, April and May,
showed Indias exports growing at a deflated
rate of around 5 per cent per annum, in marked
contrast to 30 per cent in the corresponding
period in 2000-01. The provisional data for June,
now available show that there was an actual
decline by 4.6 per cent so much so the exports
during the first quarter have seem a dismal slide
by around 1.8 per cent.
The Centre for
Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE ), Mumbai, has
now projected total exports for 2001-02 at $ 47.5
billion a growth by 7 per cent as against
the target of 18 per cent set by the Union
Ministry of Commerce. While the sceptics have a
point in forecasting a meltdown in exports in
view of a perceived recession in the U.S. and in
Europe, it is not implausible that the lacklustre
export performance of India during April-June has
had more to do with domestic economic
uncertainties than with the U.S. economy hiccups.
Although
preliminary indications are that the slowdown in
Indian exports has covered the whole gamut of
exports agricultural commodities,
engineering goods, textiles, handicrafts and gems
and jewellery a closer examination of the
phenomenon by the export promotion councils and
the commodity boards could perhaps yield
meaningful clues as to how the reversal of a year
of buoyant growth at 21 per cent has occurred and
that too so abruptly. In a dynamic global trade
situation, aberrations rather than deep-seated
disequilibria can easily confuse the exporting
community and the policymakers.
Given the fact
that there has been a lot of vacuous politicking
during the last three months and little of
pragmatic implementation of the proposals set out
in Mr. Sinhas budget for 2001-02, the
economy itself would appear to be in a deep
freeze, with industrial production continuing to
chug at a "3 per cent minus" rate and
consumer demand remaining subdued. It is an
altogether depressing scenario with manufacturing
enterprises laying low and the investment outlook
continuing to dampen the entrepreneurs. That the
export horizons have been clouded owing to the
overall inertia in the economy and the dominant
mood of "wait and see" needs to be
underscored.
The perennial
question of export competitiveness involving
transaction costs, the exchange rate of the rupee
and the range of issues relating to the
infrastructure, particularly the turnaround
performance of ports, continues to call for
coordinated action. Nothing much has occurred in
the matter of special export processing zones
(SEZs) which the Union Minister for Commerce, Mr.
Muraroli Maran, rightly advocates as the thrust
area of export policy for the New Decade. The
fact is that not many State governments are alive
to export growth as a powerful stimulus to the
regional economy. With all its political
"fire-fighting" missions, the Vajpayee
Government is perilously close to achieving the
dubious distinction of a non-performing
government !INAV
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