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EDITORIAL

CRAZY, CRAZY -
ALL THE WAY

Who says India is a poor country? You may call it developing country if not the developed one. But poor, no. This is despite the officially reeled out figure of nearly 35 crore people living below the poverty line. One can call it their bad luck. But then which country does not have poor people. Some days back it was all about America. The figure given was that 13% of the people live below the poverty line. That means almost four crore. It is quite another thing how poverty is rated in India and in USA. The yardstick speaks volumes about the standards, riches and then the number of poor amongst them is calculated. In America a person having annual income of less than $15000 is considered poor. This comes to Rs 600000 or say Rs 50000/- per month. Obviously, it is difficult to count oneself amongst even the middle class with such monthly income. Contrarily, in this country Rs 1500 per month is the cut off line to be eligible for the BPL category. All daily wagers in J&K State (some 22,000) are thus amongst the poorest. That is one reason why the pittance is held up for months because they can ill afford to lose that job on daily basis. Compare them with migrant labourer from Orissa, Bihar and other impoverished States. Their present daily wage is Rs 90 a diem. So they are above poverty line while in J&K State or in Punjab. It is ironical when they go back to their native States, their daily earnings even as labourers fall almost ten times i.e. they do not get more than Rs 10/- per ...more

The flip side of
computer education
ACADEMIC PULSE

By Prof. S K Bhalla
Friends, the present piece of writing is no diatribe against the computer education ....more

Teaching Human
Rights in Schools

By Sujata Madhok
Currently, human rights are not on any school curriculum. While educationists..more

Gratuitous gift from the US

K.N. Pandita
The news has trickled that the US intelligence agencies will disclose to their Indian counterpart....more

Issues before the
new army chief

By Maj Gen V K Madhok (Retd)
The Indian Army awaits prompt action on nearly half a dozen vital issues - if not more, ........more

New Aircraft demands
over next 20 years

By D. K. Arora
According to Airbus Industrie's latest global market forecast, the world's passenger traffic will ....more

Another evening
with Ruskin Bond
Tales of Travesty

By Dr. Jitendra Singh
High on the agenda of each visit to Mussoorie is a meeting with Ruskin Bond, the English ....more

EDITORIAL

CRAZY, CRAZY - ALL THE WAY

Who says India is a poor country? You may call it developing country if not the developed one. But poor, no. This is despite the officially reeled out figure of nearly 35 crore people living below the poverty line. One can call it their bad luck. But then which country does not have poor people. Some days back it was all about America. The figure given was that 13% of the people live below the poverty line. That means almost four crore. It is quite another thing how poverty is rated in India and in USA. The yardstick speaks volumes about the standards, riches and then the number of poor amongst them is calculated. In America a person having annual income of less than $15000 is considered poor. This comes to Rs 600000 or say Rs 50000/- per month. Obviously, it is difficult to count oneself amongst even the middle class with such monthly income. Contrarily, in this country Rs 1500 per month is the cut off line to be eligible for the BPL category. All daily wagers in J&K State (some 22,000) are thus amongst the poorest. That is one reason why the pittance is held up for months because they can ill afford to lose that job on daily basis. Compare them with migrant labourer from Orissa, Bihar and other impoverished States. Their present daily wage is Rs 90 a diem. So they are above poverty line while in J&K State or in Punjab. It is ironical when they go back to their native States, their daily earnings even as labourers fall almost ten times i.e. they do not get more than Rs 10/- per day. That too if there is some work going on in the vicinity. The fact is there is hardly any work. It explains their mass migration to other, prosperous States. So by their yardstick, J&K is a prosperous State as it catapults them above the poverty line immediately on reaching the 'land of plenty'. Soon it begins to have multiplier effect as they send urgent calls to their near and dears to reach Jammu by first train. Today many of them have given up jhuggi-jhonpri syndrome and are staying in rented houses. Some of them have even gone to the extent of sending their children to nearest school. Not only that. They are sure of good 'career prospects' and rapid advancement. Yesterday's labourer is today's mistri (mason, carpenter and all the paraphernalia). So their average daily income goes up between 180 to 200. They thus become viable middle class. It hardly matters whether it is lower middle class or higher middle class. No wonder India happens to be the country with largest middle class. It is this middle class that fits into the calculations of America to target India for all types of partnerships. America tends to ignore 33 crore BPL category. They pay due respect to the 38 crore middle class!

Now about the riches, the class that can outclass its contemporary the world over. The billionaires, the millionaires. No, it would be apt to call them Arabpatis, crorepatis, lakhpatis. The latest term is 'hazarpati' which reminds one of the period of thirties and earlier when 'hazarpati' was an honour bestowed on selected few. That was the time of lowest currency being 'Dhamri' followed in ascending order to 'Dehla' (half paise) paise, dhyani, anna, dhawani, chawani and athani. One really does not know how many people lived below poverty line then, given that India's population at the beginning of last century was only 25 crore i.e. in the year 1901. One is reminded of the 'hazarpati' status of thirties with the issuance of 1000 denomination notes by Reserve Bank of India. There is mad rush to exchange it with the lower denominations notes. As per reports RBI in Delhi first issued only 2 notes each person in queue and now to control the mad rush they have enhanced the quota to five per person. The report also says that it commands a premium of Rs 100 per note for those who do not want to stand in queue. It appears Indians are indeed crazy as manifested by the 'prized possession' of 1000 rupee notes !

The flip side of computer education
ACADEMIC PULSE

By Prof. S K Bhalla

Friends, the present piece of writing is no diatribe against the computer education but an analysis of the flashes of diabolic red light which have surfaced from Microsoft Corporation giant Bill Gates', own homeland. In our country if on the one hand there is reported ignorance about laptop computers on the part of highly educated Minister, on the other hand words and expressions like internet, cyber-cafe, cyber savvy, dot com, internet club, computer literate, computer networking and what not have gained currency among our youth of Jammu too.

In a report entitled ''Fool's Gold : A critical look at Computers and Childhood'', a few thorny questions have been raised about the false assumption of millions of parents, politicians and educationists that ''more school level computers means better education for children''. For a few the talisman of carving out a niche for oneself in life's rat ''race lies in computer education only.

Experts in the field of education (I am not at all a one) maintain'' It is hands-on experience that young children need- not simulations or content delivery''. Already we see children in our homes glued to the idiot box and playing video games. The Alliance For Children responsible for this report of own kind pronounces ''We are jeopardising their health and distorting their development''. Forcing children to spend hours sitting in cosy chairs in front of monitors, printers and key boards when they are required to be in the world of Nature for a proper nurture is not only a foolish obsession but an attitude reflective of a post-modern lunacy resulting in a stunted growth of our present generation of Jammu.

It is also well understood by me that nobody will heed to the cry for a halt to the introduction of computers in early childhood and elementary education in these days of computer education boom. There are varied dimensions of a child's personality viz, artistic, social, emotional and physical. In the opinion of a leading national daily ''for pre-school children, it is the sensory and motor skills that count, later in elementary and secondary schools years, the social and emotional skills count''. The experts maintain that it is only after the stage of puberty that the computer education really helps. At this time there is scope for a real critical thinking and inquiry.

Let us keep our eyes and ears open so far as the educational issues one concerned and revise our ill-founded views for some betterment without any interference of our inflated egos. In our State we have yet to do a lot more work on the educational front. Some computer labs in Govt's own institutions are not being put to optimum use on account of an interrupted power supply and in some cases the trained manpower is not taking the requisite interest.

It is time that students be allowed to lodge complaints against their teachers. The Principals should ensure that teachers are in the classes provided they have seriously taught when they were themselves teachers. Moreover, people in the education sector should be made clear by the society at large that all courses of study are full-time commitments and not casual occupations. This is a dream unlikely to come true at least in J&K in the near future.

Teaching Human Rights in Schools

By Sujata Madhok

Currently, human rights are not on any school curriculum. While educationists and government authorities periodically recognise the need for such education, there have been too few moves to translate this need into reality. Among the reasons for this situation is the dearth of suitable teaching material.

In such a scenario, a model text titled 'A Step in the Rights Direction' assumes importance. Authored by the South Asia Human Rights Documentation Centre (SAHRDC), the 280-page textbook for high school students is an introduction to the rights education.

''Human Rights'', says the book, ''are rights to which all human beings are entitled, simply because we are human.''

Stressing rights such as equality, freedom and justice, the book tries to instil an understanding and acceptance of differences between people, since it is intolerance of differences that leads to conflict and the crushing of rights.

The book's approach is innovative with classroom discussions, debates, exercises and games suggested in each chapter. For instance, to appreciate differences the book suggests that each student should be asked to write a brief self-description. These should then be exchanged and the differences between students--such as their height, weight, appearance, ethnicity or religion-discussed. The discussions should focus on whether one feels superior or inferior because of the differences.

The book also reinforces the idea of equality and introduces the idea that some people need to be helped to be equal through positive discrimination.

The Right to Freedom is taught through playing Snakes and Ladders, with the snakes being impediments like, ''parental refusal for permission to marry someone of a different and lower caste,'' while the ladders are rights to self-expression, such as ''giving a journalist one's opinion on nuclear weapons.''

To counter the belief that human rights is a western ideal, the book outlines a history of the Indian human and civil rights movement. Beginning with the founding of the Indian Civil Liberties Union by Jawaharlal Nehru in 1937, it goes on to the formation of civil rights groups in the mid-1970s, particularly during the post Emergency period. It mentions rights violations during political upheavals and the introduction of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act in 1958 to cope with the Naga insurgency, the National Security Act, 1980, the Terrorist and Disruptive Activities Act, 1985 and other laws. It also mentions government moves towards human rights, such as setting up commissions to protect various minorities. The killing of human rights activist Jalil Andrabi in Kashmir in 1996 by the para-military Rashtriya Rifles and of Jaswant Singh Kalra by Punjab police in 1995 are focussed on as instances of rights abuse by the government.

The final chapters of the book focus on the rights of the girl child, the forms of discrimination common in Indian society beginning with infanticide and foeticide and going on to discrimination in access to food, healthcare and education. Stereotypes about girls and boys are looked at through classroom exercises and interchange. References are made to the national laws and international conventions that are meant to safeguard children's rights. The Convention on the Rights of the Child is appended.

Last, but not the least, comes the issue of wife battering. This might seem an unlikely subject for school children until one remembers that domestic violence scars both mothers and children. The problem is examined at length through a case study, the lacunae in laws to protect battered women are discussed and alternative laws proposed by feminist lawyers are referred to.

Though the textbook is likely to evoke fascinating debates in classrooms if the activities mentioned in it are implemented with interest and sensitivity, the book does have some shortcomings. The basic rights to food, clothing and shelter, which are denied to so many in a country like ours, should have been stressed and the obstacles to these rights examined.

While discussing children's rights, a focus on child labour would have been appropriate. The issue is unfortunately skimmed over. Lastly, teachers needed some forewarning that discussion on the rights of the girl child may lead to polarisation between girls and boys in co-educational classrooms and such a division may need to be dealt with.

The manual has already been field tested in several private schools in Tamil Nadu. One hopes that schools will adopt it as a vital and valuable tool in education. (WFS)

Gratuitous gift from the US

K.N. Pandita

The news has trickled that the US intelligence agencies will disclose to their Indian counterpart a 1000-page six- volume manual allegedly used by the Bin Laden-sponsored groups to train hundreds of recruits in terrorist camps in Afghanistan to launch anti-American terrorist operations and foray into Jammu and Kashmir.

The decision appears to be the response of the United States to the subdued criticism of a section of the Indian press of her go-slow attitude on religion-based international terrorism to contain which the two countries have formed a joint working group.

But the fact of the matter is that India has been regularly providing sensitive information to the US regarding the activities of the terrorists in Afghanistan-Pakistan-Kashmir region. She obtains the information from the foreign mercenaries and jehadis captured while in action in Kashmir. Indian official circles told the press several times that very sensitive information gathered from these mercenaries and from the documents and material seized from them had been conveyed to the Americans through official channel. But the US Government always took the stand that for want of adequate evidence she would not declare Pakistan a terrorist State.

Now Washington is prepared to tell the whole world how international terrorism is being sponsored, abetted and supported in Afghanistan and Pakistan and how cross-border terrorism has become Pakistan's recognised policy in the Indian part of Kashmir.

Does the US want to make India the cat's paw to punish Pakistan and Afghanistan for an international crime? The leaking of the manual appears to have been contrived in a manner as to give an impression to the Indians that in case they decide to take punitive action against establishment of terrorist training camps in PoK, the US would not raise her eyebrow. It may also mean sending a message of warning to Pakistan and Afghanistan, particularly at a time when the Taliban have launched in concert with Pakistani army an attack on the eastern province of Kunduz in Afghanistan, which is under the control of the Northern Alliance forces of Ahmad Shah Masud.

We don't think this gimmick will work. India is not going to attack the training camps because she is yet to learn how to deal effectively with the Islamic jehadi groundswell. To fight wars and win battles is one thing but to counter jehad effectively is entirely another thing. Nor is Islamabad going to pay two hoots to any warning, veiled or unveiled, on her Afghanistan and Kashmir agenda. She knows that the US wants the Northern Allies forces in Afghanistan to be pushed as far away to the north as is possible so that the contemplated route for carrying Turkmen gas from Daulatabad fields to Karachi via Heart and Kabul is secured through an agreement between the American mega oil cartels like UNOCAL and the Taliban.

The information contained in the six-volume manual may not be all that is unknown to the Indian intelligence agencies. In all probability it may be the rehash of what India has already conveyed to the US and the European Union from time to time. Naturally, India will neither be thrilled nor become euphoric about it. But with the acknowledgement coming as it does from the US, India has a strong position to ask Washington to declare Pakistan and Afghanistan (under Taliban) as terrorist states. This will be hailed by the whole world as a step in right direction and will also legitimize the constituting of the Joint Working Group on Terrorism.

It has to be noted that the news of the US likely to disclose the sensitive information to India came close on the heels of Russian President Putin's visit to India and the signing of several Indo-Russian agreements. While Putin was still in India and Indo-Russian cementing of ties was receiving the press hype, Karl Inderfurth, the US Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia came out with a statement conceding that Pakistan was sending the terrorists across the border into Kashmir to fight the Indian security forces. These two developments indicate Washington's desire that India maintain the new-found cordiality with the US. If Washington understands that India is to be accepted as an influential power in South Asia, and, as such, her geopolitical strategy has to be give due recognition, one can call it the maturing of US statesmanship. India had been insisting on that for a long time but Washington stuck to her unimaginative paradigm of 'parity'.

Washington has dragged the Kashmir issue, rather awkwardly, into the broad spectrum of Indo-US relations during last one decade. American officials have been hinting at their silent efforts of addressing the Kashmir tangle. The US insists that Indian authorities hold talks with the dissident groups in Kashmir to lower the tension. She has something more up her sleeves.

Kashmir insurgency and dissident leaders are constantly in touch with the Pakistani mission in New Delhi. The ex-chief of Hurriyat flew to New Delhi and was reported to have held six-hour long meeting with the Pakistani High Commissioner. Washington is aware of these parleys and the corollaries thereof.

Now in the light of the six-volume manual that the Americans are passing on to the Indians, it would be in fitness of things as well as logical to ask the Kashmir insurgency and Hurriyat leadership to stop meeting with the Pakistani mission officials in New Delhi. Instead, they should travel to Pakistan and Afghanistan to talk to the Islamic radical organization leaders about the jehad sponsored by them in Kashmir and its fall-out in the subcontinent. This is because the Government in Islamabad has been hijacked by extremist religious organizations and only their writ is acceptable to the jehadis. The more prominent among the leaders of these theo-fascist organizations with whom Kashmiri dissident leaders should be encouraged to interact are Qazi Hussain Ahmad of Jamaat-e-Islami, Fazlur Rehman Khaleel of Hizbul Mujahideen, Prof. Mohammad Saeed of Lashkar-e-Tayyaba, Maulana Azhar Masud of Jaysh-e Mohammad, Mulla Omar of Taliban and Osma bin Laden of Al Qaida. The Kashmiri delegation should be provided with a copy of the six-volume manual obtained by the US intelligence agencies. It should be advised to discuss its implications in Kashmir. This will help Kashmiri dissident leadership understand to what extent they are free in giving direction to the armed insurgency in the valley and to what extend are they controlling the situation at home.

Issues before the new army chief

By Maj Gen V K Madhok (Retd)

The Indian Army awaits prompt action on nearly half a dozen vital issues - if not more, to restore its competence for a futuristic setting dominated by insurgency and terrorism let lose by over a dozen odd secessionist movements. Besides, a psychological and proxy war, waged by Pakistan and its ISI to annex Kashmir, adverse law and order situation due to poor governance in the country and the need to remain prepared for limited conflicts with China or Pakistan demand a high State of readiness. While the Army remains short of men and equipment, with a visible dent in morale which the new chief wants to restore.

To guarantee operational competence of the Army is of course the cardinal requirement? This varies from defending India's borders to taking offensive operations inside hostile territory to reuniting areas lying under occupation of Pakistan and China, to supporting the police and para military forces and to assisting various states and even the Central Government to function when the going becomes tough. Such tasks have however become more complex today due to political instability failure of police and para military forces to contain mafia and cross border terrorism, multiplicity of security forces, monitoring and investigations by human rights commissions and the media. Above all, political interference which takes various shapes, from meddling in Army's promotions to aiding Builder's lobby to acquire land in cantonments.

But, the army can no longer afford to get caught off guard even if it is tasked to intervene in a neighbouring State for peace keeping or peace enforcement mission at very short notice. For that matter, should China take any initiatives in Nepal or Bhutan then the Army can indeed be confronted with a tricky situation. Although India does not have a defence policy which articulates such contingencies, the Army has no option but to remain prepared.

As such, the army needs directions as it is not a deliberative body. Army is an executive instrument where obedience is the law. Accordingly, its current and future operational missions have to be articulated and spell out with clarity in advance in India's defence policy which is just not there. Unlike 1962 or the impulsive induction of IPKF in Sri Lanka in 1987, sufficient data and experience are available today to ensure preparation. The nation would be erring grievously if it remains complascent and does not force the polity to come out with a Defence Policy.

As regards other areas: Five crucial issues need to be addressed. That is the leadership crisis where the Army has become JCO led. Two; over dependence for supply of arms and defence hardware on foreign industries. Three; the need to restructure and modernize the army (technically and tactically) so as to make it professional and task oriented along with shifting its mindset from a colonial to an Indian model; giving it more mobility and making it self reliant particularly in intelligence. Four; to put in place a workable reservist system for Army's expansion including the Territorial Army (TA). Finally, to maintain Army's morale and a soldier's fighting spirit ;in a corporate oriented world without which everything else is meaningless.

There is an identifiable crisis in Army's military leadership. With nearly 40 percent deficiency in its officer cadre (nearly 16000 officers), Army's combat units (Infantry and tank) have 50 JCOs but only 8-10 officers. India's army has thus become JCO led. A suitable a country of 100 crore Indians cannot just afford. Reasons for this are simple: A JCO is between 35-42 years old offer 20 or more years of service. In the type of operations visualised on the Sino-Indian border and high altitudes, army needs young Capts and Majors where the deficiency is acute. Besides, the JCO rank is superfluous today and prevents direct interaction between the officers and men. The Government has the right to introduce compulsory or selected draft of utilising services of all its able bodied citizens. Insufficient efforts have been made in this direction.

That is not all. A survey, conducted sometime ago revealed that, given a golden handshake, majority of middle place serving officers would leave. Concurrently, India's corporate and money oriented youth does not wish to shoulder responsibility towards their country's security. Consider this. Today there are more than 5000 cases of army personnel pending in the courts and an equal number of petitions awaiting disposal at Army Headquarters. This is a pathetic situation which needs correction with utmost promptitude.

The position about equipment and weaons is not happy either. Recently, the media has reported Army's intention to purchase 300xT-90 Russian tanks each costing 15 crore. Army had purchased one lakhAK-47 rifles from Romania with ammunition from a 3rd country. A couple of years ago, clothing for use in snow conditions, sophisticated night vision devices, mine detectors and even bullet proof vests are coming from abroad. Some of these can be junk as has happened in a few cases. The issue is, with 50-60% of imported weapons and equipment the Army cannot fight for prolonged periods. Why have we put our soldiery in such a situation is therefore an important question? What has happened to India's huge Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and defence production factories which alone employs 1,70,000 personnel. After 10-12 years of trials the DRDO has not produced an anti tank missile and quarter of a century has passed but Arjun has yet to go into commercial production. Above all, what is the private industry doing? Is this due to sabotage by foreign arms suppliers and their agents or plain complascence? A major effort will therefore be required to bridge the gap between the DRDO, the customers (army), defence production and the private industry.

The army would also need to become self reliant in other areas. It must have a foolproof intelligence system to know as to what is happening across the borders instead of awaiting information from RAW or other police oriented agencies. For that it needs a specialised defence intelligence agency as is the case in US. For expansion in an emergency as well as to get relieved from non combatant duties the reservist system for relief and expansion remains on paper. It must be tried out periodically to ensure its credibility. The TA meant for second line tasks and also to relieve army from static duties or to provide immediate replacements to make up initial deficiencies on out break of hostilities needs to be expanded from its present forty thousand to atleast forty lakhs if it is to be of any assistance to the Nation. No worthwhile thought has been given to the TA either by India's polity or the Army itself.

Finally, unless the society, civil administration and the media realise and look after the soldier during his service or on retirement, his fighting spirit will disappear. Fortunately, the society has shown visible response to a soldier's needs after the Kargil imbroglio. But some how, it is the Government and the army themselves who have made inadequate efforts to take the citizen and the private industry along.

Such then appears to be a broad agenda for the new army Chief. Unlike his predecessors the new Chief faces an entirely different environment. Yet the basics remain the same. The Army must know its tasks. It must have the best leadership. It must be equipped with indigenous arms and equipment instead of being held hostage to foreign arms factories. And that, without support from society and Government's understanding, army's fighting spirit - the winning factor, can wither and even vanish.

New Aircraft demands over next 20 years

By D. K. Arora

According to Airbus Industrie's latest global market forecast, the world's passenger traffic will almost triple over the next 20 years, and continue to spur the growth of civil aviation, despite further advancements in telecommunications and high-speed rail networks. This growth will create the need for nearly 15, 400 new airliners and freighter aircraft during the 2000-2019 period, representing a sales value of some $1.3 trillion.

Presenting the annual report, Mr Adam Brown, Airbus Industrie Vice - President (Market Forecasts), said revenue passenger-kilometres carried by the world's major airlines would increase at an average annual rate of 5.2 per cent during the next 10 years. Growth would slow down with the markets maturing. The average growth could be 4.6 per cent through the following decade. This would result in a 20-year average growth in revenue passenger-kilometres (RPK) of 4.9 per cent through 2019.

"During this period, the world's airlines will carry an average of five trillion RPKs per year, compared with the average 1.3 trillion they have carried during the past 30 years," Mr Brown said. "Our forecast also shows that in 2019, the airlines will carry 330 billion more RPKs than in 2018. So in 20 years' time, just one year's increment in traffic over the previous year will equal the world traffic in 1986."

While the 4.9 per cent average is a global figure, traffic will grow at significantly different rates in different markets. Driven by continuing economic growth and reduced fares, passenger traffic will rise at an average annual rate of 4.9 per cent over the next 20 years to reach five trillion in 2009 and eight trillion in 2019, compared with three trillion today. Meanwhile, cargo traffic will be stimulated by the development of global e-commerce and manufacturing trends, with freight tonne kilometres increasing at an average annual rate of 5.7 per cent through 2019.

To accommodate the growing demand, the number of seats in passenger service will increase from 1.85 million today to nearly 4.2 million in 2019, while the capacity of the dedicated freighter fleet will grow from nearly 69,000 tonnes to 184,000 in 2019. With annual departures increasing by just 3.3 per cent through 2019 - insufficient to keept pace with the growth in traffic - airlines will have to offer more seats per departure. In response, the average aircraft size will grow from the current 179 seats to 317 seats in 2019.

"Some markets have already matured. In the United States, for example, every man, woman and child makes on average two trips each year and in times, the percentage of total U.S. personal consumption spent on domestic air travel has actually been declining". "So we expect that during the next twenty years the mature US domestic air travel market will grow at an average of just 2.6 per cent per year. While traffic on domestic routes in the People's Republic of China will increase nearly five-fold, growing at a stunning average annual 8.1 per cent." In reviewing the aircraft market by size segment, Mr Brown said the largest demand over the next 20 years would be for airliners seating 100-175 passengers. According to the forecast, a total of 7,570 new aircraft in this size category will be needed by through 2019.

"This is a sector where the wide-bodied single-aisle A318, A319, A320 and A321 have been progressively gaining market share and outselling their narrow body competition." "Following the recent launch of new, more capable versions, we believe the A320 family is now well placed to account for a major share of the aircraft ordered in this category for the foreseeable future," he said.

In the 200-250 seat category, the GMF predicts the need for over 3,000 aircraft. Airbus industrie "invented" this aircraft category in the early 1970s with its original A300, and more than 900 Airbus airliners have been sold in this size. "Recently, most of the passenger aircraft we've sold of this type have been A330-200s, and we are now exploring how to consolidate our position in this sector with further downsized, but highly capable, A330 models," Mr Brown added.

Demand for freighter aircraft will remain strong during the next 20 years as airlines accommodate growth and replace older aircraft that reach the end of their economic lives. The A300 and A310 have done well as freighters, and Airbus expects continued sales of these aircraft as well as a brisk market for the conversion of used passenger aircraft into freight carriers. The Airbus Global Market Forecast anticipates 703 new freighters will be delivered over the 20-year period, with another 2,389 converted from their passenger configuration into cargo aircraft. "Of the 703 new freighters delivered during the next twenty years 315, or 45 per cent, will be in the largest size category with more than 80 tonnes capacity," he said.

The Forecast predicts delivery of some 2,100 aircraft in the 300, 350 and 400-seat category during the next 20 years. "This is where the A330 and A340 family - including the new A340-500 and 600-are continuing to outsell all models of their direct competitor by a wide margin." In the very large aircraft category - where Airbus Industrie is developing the new 555-seat A3XX - the forecast foresees the need for 1,235 aircraft during the 2000-2019 period. These very large airliners, with capacities of more than 400 seats, are expected to be operated on 92,450 monthly - linking 584 airport pairs around the world.

Mr Brown said that 28 operators of such aircraft would be based in the Asia - Pacific region. This represented almost half of the total number of airlines expected to fly the very large aircraft, making Asia-Pacific the largest geographical base for these airliners.

Eight operators have already advised Airbus Industrie of their wish to be launch customers for the A3XX. "Without considerable numbers of a new type of aircraft like the A3XX - larger and more economical than anything flying today - the world's airlines will simply be unable to meet growing demand for low-cost air travel between major population centers in an increasingly congested airport and traffic environment," Mr Brown said.

The greatest demand will be for 7,570 single-aisle aircraft with more than 100 seats worth US$237, 4 billion through 2019 and strong demand will also develop for 5,164 twinaisles worth US$600 billion, with seating for up to 400. At the top end, to meet growing demand for low-cost air travel in an increasingly congested and competitive environment, in which already today there are 36 aircraft in service with more than 500 seats, the number of very large aircraft will rise inexorably to 1,235 worth US$281.8 billion in 2019. This represents 22 per cent - more than fifth - of the overall business volume during the next 20 years.

By 2019, 58 airlines will be operating very large passenger aircraft (more than 400 seats) on 92,450 monthly flights linking 584 airport-pairs in a variety of high-density domestic, local, regional and intercontinental markets. The Global Market Forecast covers the year-by-year evolution of the world's largest 228 airlines and 49 subsidiaries, together with 187 additional cargo operators. Out of the 15,400 new aircraft predicted to be delivered over the next 20-year period, around 14,700 would be passenger aircraft with more than 70 seats and over 700 would be freighters.

Of the total of 3,092 freighters delivered over the next 20 years to accommodate growth and replace the 1,153 aircraft which will reach the end of their economic lives, 2,389 will be converted from passenger configuration. Of the 703 new factory-built freighters delivered through 2019, 315 will be large aircraft with a capacity greater than 80 tonnes.

Based on 2000 catelogue prices, the 7,608 new passenger and freighter aircraft delivered through 2009 will be worth US$560 billion, and the 7,756 new aircraft delivered through the following decade will be worth US$750 billion, giving a total 20-year business volume of US$1.31 trillion an average of US$65 billion per year. New passenger aircraft deliveries will average 733 per year over the full 20-year period, although the dollar value of deliveries in the second decade will be greater, as the trend towards larger aircraft progresses. - CNF

Another evening with Ruskin Bond
Tales of Travesty

By Dr. Jitendra Singh

High on the agenda of each visit to Mussoorie is a meeting with Ruskin Bond, the English author, whose writings had inspired this columnist's generation over 20 years ago to dwell in the universal nuances of human characterisation in creative writing and whose famous short story "The Flight of Pigeons" picturised in Hindi as "Junoon" had helped Shashi Kapoor nearly two decades ago to establish himself as a serious producer of Indian classical cinema.

Even though it was one of those several periodic visits to Mussoorie, yet a Date with Ruskin Bond could not have been missed. And, incidentally, even though the visit this time was purely professional and had been planned with the chief objective of delivering a lecture on Diabetes, yet how could one think of returning from Mussoorie without having met Bond!

Years ago, on my very first visit to Mussoorie as a College student, I had arrived at this picturesque hill resort conjuring up fond images of a young Ruskin Bond, a pampered little son of a British officer, sensitively interacting with the lesser children of Indian parents. To quote from one of Bond's autobiographical poems "The wide-eyed wonder Rukmini, Perm's small sister .... His father was away fighting for my father's country". Mussoorie of those days was not a crowded place as it is today and the first thing I had done after checking into the hotel was to inquire where Ruskin Bond lived. All I had received were blank stares smacking of a shameful ignorance. I asked for the telephone Directory, but of no avail. The author did not have a telephone connection in his name. I must confess it gave me initial shock to learn that Mussoorie was blissfully ignorant of its most prized possession. That instantly brought to mind a similar incident over half a century ago when the great litterateur+

Graham Green was a guest of the Maharaja of Mysore and had asked for the Mysore's most promising young writer R K Narayan only to be told by the Maharaja that he needed time to find out Narayan's whereabouts. Atlast the sauve gentleman at the Tilak Library had come to our rescue and thus followed over four kilometers of uphill walk across Mussoorie's Landour Bazaar on the outskirts of Mall to reach a delapidated building in which the bachelor author lives as a humble tenant.

When I had narrated to Ruskin Bond the ordeal of tracing him in his own home town, he disarmingly replied, "I am aware of that. You will be amused to know that a TV newsreader called Tejeshwar Singh who recently purchased a house nearby is a bigger celebrity here. But that does not bother me. I know, literature has always been a minority interest, especially in the North India. That is the reason, perhaps, that an occasional visitor that I receive is invariably a South Indian."

Sharing his lifelong experience as a freelancer, Bond candidly admitted to this columnist, who also happend to be a fellow freelancer, that though he did achieve a reasonable degree of fame in literary circles, he had miserably failed to make a fortune. Citing the example of R K Narayan who never forgave actor-director Dev Anand for taking liberties with the film version of the former's prize winning novel "The Guide", I had once asked Ruskin Bond if he did not consider himself lucky because Shyam Benegal, the director of "Junoon", had been reasonably fair to the original script of "The Flight of Pigeons". "You are right," said Bond, "but do you know, they paid me a mere ten thousand rupees for the rights to film the story and I readily accepted the offer because I was broke and hardpressed for money. It was much later that I learnt Shashi Kapoor was behind the project and that I could have bargained for more."

Bond, today, looks tired and aged. With a modest smile, he laments, "The priorities have changed. Nobody has the time or the will to read. Particularly the kind of things that I write."

Indeed, the story of Ruskin Bond is an appalling "tale of travesty" representing the disgrace and shame with which we treat our men of letters. But then, is this not true that the men of letters last longer than the men in power? Because, through the works of letters lives the common man. If that be so, the legacy of Umapathy is forever immortalised in the works of Ruskin Bond, a La, "Meri Tahreer Hai Taarikh Meri...."



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