Pakistan has thrived too long on ties with U.S.

By V D Chopra

Any objective study of the US Pak relations in the beginning of the 21st century leads one of the conclusion that these are undergoing significant changes and Pakistan no longer occupies the same position in the geo-strategic perception of Washington as it had been enjoying since mid-fifties. There are many factors which have contributed to this change in the US-Pak relationship, the most important among them being emergence of Pakistan as the driving force in the rise of terrorism in the entire Euroasian region.

But for this role which the ruling elite of Pakistan has assigned to itself even after the demise of the Soviet Union and the way it is promoting, training and organizing terrorism in this entire region, this shift in the American assessment about Pakistan would not have revealed itself so openly.

In August the US Embassy in Islamabad is reported to have warned its citizens in Pakistan of the possible terrorist attacks against them by Islamic extremists. This warning was based on the information according to which Osama bin Laden was planning to send terrorist groups to Pakistan to carry out attacks against the Americans.

There is every likelihood that these terrorist acts might be carried out not by Laden's Arab followers but by Taliban militants. This conclusions is based on the fact that the Talibans generally enter Pakistan without any restrictions. Their entry into Pakistan does not attract the attention of Pakistani authorities.

The Pakistani authorities will not suspect such anti-American acts, as and when they take place, as having been organised by Taliban. On the contrary, they will be looking for the culprits among the local Islamic groups. It may be recalled that the Pakistani extremist groups like Jamaat-e-Islami, Jamiat-e-Ulema-e-Islam, Harkat-ul-Ansar, which support Osama bin Laden, led last summer a campaign to prevent the Americans from their plan to launch an operation from the territory of Pakistan to arrest the Saudi fugitive. These groups warned the Americans that in case of any threat to Laden's life they would carry out acts of terrorism against American citizens in any part of the world.

That being the position, the Pakistani authorities are caught in a vicious circle of their own creation. Any firm action against Taliban militants who indulge in terrorist acts against Americans in Pakistan will evoke resistance from the local terrorist and extremist groups. And if they do not act against them right now, it will widen the chasm between the ruling elite of Pakistan and Washington. This is the dilemma which the political establishment in Pakistan is facing today. There is something more to it.

Osama bin Laden has promised massive financial and material support to the Taliban for their new operation in North Afghanistan, according to an Afghan leader living in exile. This shows how among the various faction in Afghanistan. Taliban and Osama bin Laden are working out a new strategy. These inside reports show that in the civil war in Afghanistan. Pakistan will remain active as in the past. It is a known fact that the Taliban had neither the capacity nor the resources to capture Kabul on September 26-27, 1996.

Despite deep involvement of Pakistan in the civil war of Afghanistan it has so far not been able to achieve its objectives. In fact, this policy has led to the isolation of Pakistan. None of the Afghan factions, other than the Taliban, is willing to trust Pakistan. Even the fate of Taliban is uncertain for various internal and external factors, notwithstanding the fact that the Taliban movement was created by Islamabad. None of the Afghan neighbours is willing to trust Pakistan's motives.

The main objective of Pakistan has always been to solve the problem of its border with Afghanistan over the Durand Line. Therefore, it has been aiming to have a friendly Government in Kabul to achieve this aim.

Secondly, Pakistan has been angling to capture the markets of oil-rich Central Asia Republics. Pakistan made plans to accelerate the pace of development of Gwadar port in the north-west of Pakistan to meet the expected growing goods traffic to and from the Central Asian Republics. It also has plans to build gas pipelines from Turkmenistan to Pakistan through Afghanistan.

These two factors are valid even today. Therefore, the objective of Pakistan is to have a Government in Afghanistan which serves its geo-economic and strategic interests. The valiant people of Afghanistan, including a faction of the Taliban, will not easily accept this position. That is why an independent and sovereign state of Afghanistan consisting of all the factions comes into contradiction with the ambition of Pakistan. That also explains why Pakistan was the main instrument for the destruction of a liberal democratic system in Afghanistan. The emergence of a nationalist Government in Afghanistan based on all shades of opinion has been blocked by Pakistan during the last two decades through ISI.

The Taliban are the product of madrassas run in Pakistan and their rigid Islamic outlook is totally alien to the Afghan ethos and the egalitarian Pakhtoon culture. Taliban emerged as a ferment for peace and have now become claimants for absolute power for themselves. The madrassas that trained and equipped the Taliban in the initial stages of the Islamic movement have now become a breeding ground for extremism, sectarianism and militancy and threat to regional peace and stability.

It has now been established that Pakistan's Afghan policy, for that matter its foreign policy, including its policy towards India and United States, is influences by ISI. Over the years the character of the ISI has changed. From an intelligence gathering outfits it has been transformed into a major factor in the internal and external policies of Pakistan.

Those who have been watching closely this transformation have come to the conclusion that ISI is dominated not by professionals but by those elements who are most conservative, orthodox and religious fanatics. No political establishment in Pakistan can assert its authority by ignoring ISI. The Taliban are an extension of ISI in Afghanistan.

Before this development, the course in Afghanistan were shaped by Saudi Arabia and the United States, both overtly and covertly. It is in this context that the role of Saudi - born Osama bin Laden has to be seen. Now the situation has changed. The Taliban with their close links with ISI have become an autonomous factor. They have their own supporters within Pakistan. This new development is influencing the policy of the United States towards both the Taliban and Pakistan.

In the process, the ferociously nationalistic Afghans realised that the Taliban were nothing but a stooge of Pakistan and refused to acccept the Afghan Mujahideen, Mullah Umer's dispensation.

Other Afghan factions, especially the Uzbek and Tajik leaders like Rashid Dostum and Ahmad Shah Masood were quick to realise that the Taliban's Strength is only Pakistan and not the traditional warrior qualities associated with the Pakhtoons. "Without money given by the Saudis and routed through Pakistan, and Islamabad's covert military support, the Taliban are nothing but a bunch of rough guys," according to an Indian expert.

There are some other factors which sooner or later will influence Washington's policy towards Pakistan.

Firstly, oil resources of Gulf region are depleting. The United States therefore has to work out a long-term policy to tap oil resources from other areas, in the Central Asian Republics in particular. As a matter of fact, the United States has begun to modify its policy towards Iran. In 1995, the US announced an American trade embargo on Iran. Iran and Iraq stand under a policy of "double containment" by the USA, that is, neither country is allowed free access to trade. However, American firms were allowed to buy oil from Iran and sell it to other countries and Iran was in the position of having the US as its main trading partner.

Significantly, Central Asian Republics and Iran are hostile to the Taliban and thereof are suspicious about Pakistan.

Secondly, a large number of Islamic countries, including Turkey/Algeria and Egypt, are disturbed over the rise of religious fundamentalism and extremism, which is being promoted by the religious fanatics of Afghanistan and Pakistan. Washington cannot ignore this factor.

Thirdly, anti-Americans has become the banner of religious fundamentalists and terrorist.

All these factors combined together will have a direct bearing on US - Pak relations. Therefore this new facet of reality needs to be careflly watched.
CNF

When will the bubble burst ?

By Dr Bharat Jhunjhunwala

Unquestionably, the US is leading the present global recovery. But the situation is precarious because the entire edifice rests on investor confidence in the US dot.com revolution. There is increasing evidence that the dot.com euphoria is ebbing and there is every reason to believe that the present buoyancy will not sustain. A tremor in the US stock markets can therefore bring the global economy tumbling down. The question is not whether, but when is this likely to happen. The globalization brigade is living on borrowed time.

The latest UNCTAD Trade and Development Report points out that the present growth in the world economy is fundamentally dependent on the euphoria in the new public issues of the US dot.com companies. Global investors are putting huge amounts in these companies. The net flow of capital from Europe to the US was negligible in 1997. It has reached an astronomical $100 billion in 1997. European money has changed direction from crisis- ridden Russia to dot.com-driven America.

This money is largely pouring into new public issues of dot.com companies. The share prices of these companies are buoyant and this has placed considerable wealth in the hands of the US consumer. The US consumer is buying up goods of the world on the strength of this paper wealth. They are borrowing from the market using their share certificates as collateral. This consumer spending has converted the US into a buyer of last resort. The US is virtually willing to buy anything that the world wants to sell. The exports from Europe, japan and the developing world are increasing as a result and the world economy is booming.

It never seems to dawn upon those investing in the US that they are, in fact, exporting their goods to themselves. A Japanese investor sends his yen to the US to buy dot.com stocks. Those same yen are used by the US consumer to import electronic goods from Japan. It is like a shopkeeper giving a loan to a buyer to purchase his goods.

A virtuous cycle of global growth has been established. Share prices of dot.com companies are the pivot of this fortunate circumstance. High share prices pull world capital towards the US, that leads to more wealth in the hand of US stockholder, the demand for consumer goods in the US is increasing, leading to a rise in world exports and a buoyant global economy.

There is a problem though. The US is importing goods in huge quantities but its exports are weak; It is paying for these imports not from export earnings but from foreign capital inflows. The US can, therefore, continue to this import and consume binge only as long as the inflow of global capital into the US continues. This, in turn, may be expected to last only as long as the boom in dot.com persists. The edifice of the global economy, therefore, rests on the pivot of the dot.com boom.

There is some indications that the dot.com thing may be slowing. A report in the Wall Street Journal quotas Matt Mosman, the acquisitions executive at Oracle Corp. as saying that his ''phones are ringing off the hook with pitches from start-ups anxious to sell. A year ago, they would've called about venture funding and now they say. We think we are on the block. Many call with the message that they are entertaining strategic opportunities-code for will you buy me?'' Unquestionably, a lot of new dot.com are going bust. Unable to make profits, with their savings going down the drain, they are anxious to selloff to the best buyer and quick.

A few companies like Oracle may indeed be making money out of such busting. But the boom in the sector certainly appears to be slowing down. And, it is precisely the sectoral boom, not a handful of companies, which can pull off a continued boom and attract world capital for long periods of time. And if the dot.com boom ends all those factors which had led to the East Asian crisis will come back into play once again.

Let us not forget that the East Asian crisis was precipitated by falling US demand which translated into lower profits for Western MNCs operating in East Asia. That led to decline in capital inflows into those countries. A decline both in export earnings and capital inflows had led to a collapse of their currencies.

This is precisely the warning sounded by UNCTAD. ''The ramnants of the wreckage of the Asian crisis of 1997 cannot be swept away by another East Asian 'miracle' or by the new technologies that appear to be shifting the United States onto a higher potential growth path''.

UNCTAD sounds a further word of caution: the present expansion ''has been accompanied by buoyant (share) markets which create a fertile climate for financial excess..... many argue that the recent rise in equity prices has been excessively rapid and represents a bubble based on self-fulfilling expectations rather than solid earning prospects. Returns to investors in equity markets have been driven by rapid improvement in quotations of (shares) of companies which often have no record or expectation of positive earnings.'' The collapse of this system ''would have serious ramifications for the entire economy,'' says UNCTAD.

At the height of the Asian crisis in late-nineties writers as myself had been of the opinion that the world economy was poised for a collapse. It indeed was. But the unexpected boom in dot.com has warded it off. The question then is whether the troublesome scenario may again not be warded off by yet another unexpected boom elsewhere.

The answer to such a question would lie in the advances in technology that may or may not take place. If, for example, another 'revolution' would emerge in say genetic technology or space exploration the crisis will certainly be pushed back yet again. The profits in these emerging sectors would once again fuel yet another consumption boom.

On the other hand there have also been occasions where such a saviour technology has not emerged. UNCTAD points out that in the sixties the United States was placed in a similar position. At that time the US Government was running huge budget deficits to meet the bill of its huge overseas military spending such as in viet Nam. It was purchasing goods from across the world to meet its military requirements and paying with dollar denominated US treasury bonds. The value of those bonds was obviously dependent on the value of the dollar. It became clear to the investors that the huge imports in absence of exports have to but lead to the devaluation of the dollar. There was a run on the dollar and the US government had to rescind the convertability of the dollar into gold.

In the eighties similarly there was a boom in US real estate prices which was fuelled by excessive borrowing. The bursting of that bubble had led to the stock market crash and 'hard landing' of the dollar in 1986-87. And we should not forget that the stock market crash of 1929 which led to the Great Depression was similarly caused by an unwarranted boom in the stock markets. We have, therefore, more than one instance when it has not been possible to warn off an economic imbalance by newer technological advances.

When such a slippage may occur is difficult to say. But this much can be asserted that the present buoyancy of the global economy is based on the dot.com bubble which has but to burst.

Terrorism & Human Rights

By Daya Sagar

Terrorism and Human Rights is surely the most sought for subject these days for conferences and workshops.

Man is one of the elements of the animal kingdom. But is the most developed social animal who has been named as Human after it took to social cause and recognised the right of other of its kind to survive.

I understand right to survive to choice with honour and respect, is the Human Right we talk about to-day and is the reference before us. And the definition will be incomplete unless the proposed beneficiary of Human Rights too is called upon to act and protect the Human Rights of others. Those who donot respect and regard the rights of others surely donot have any right to claim the cover Under Human Rights.

And Human Right Violations these days are very commonly referred to the acts of individual countries and nations and the suggestions and reactions that are made are also extra territorial in origin. India, to-day, has attracted many Human Rights activists from other countries as well as, from within.

Terror as the tool :-

The common tool that is applied by terrorists to force others agree to the view point one carries and to deny the due right to others, is the threat to one's life and property. Terror, as the means, could be used on innocent persons or physically weak persons to extract money or keep them underpressure or accept the activities of the terrorists or stay silent. These methods when used within the State by anti-social elements have to be resisted by the State. And the property and rights of the common citizens are to be safeguarded. But under any circumstances when a particular ruler or law of a State shows discrimination against the common bonafide citizens on the basis of religion or region, it is only then that the need may arise from even the International Community to raise voice against such State terrorism and glimpses of such type of State terrorism could be had while going through the Indian Independence movement during British Colonial Rule,

Insurgency and Social Motivation

Righ to life, and right to honour and integrity of One's country is a relative para-meter. A soldier protecting the borders of his country is not violating any Human Rights in case he outrightly kills the equally brave soldier of the aggressor country. Similarly, an act of insurgency against any Nation may have to be dealt with aggression in case the social motivation does not pay the immediate dividends.

Observing Human Right Violations :

Militant activities as well as Insurgency against a country are not supposed to be dealt with by any State like a simple Robbery at Gun point, which too uses terror as means for over powering the other side.

The whole International community today is worried about the large scale terrorism promotion by militant Organisations and groupism amongst different countries clearly divided into classes that take weight with one insurgent movement or are opposed to it. The unfortunate part is that some Human Right activists, to-day, are also plagued with this malice.

Any use of force or terrorism to bring around others to One's own view point in any manner or form in a Democratic system has to be opposed. It has to be kept in mind that the activists and the proposals that have extra territorial links and origin have to be looked into with different angle by the concerned Country and International Community while observing Human Right Violations should not ignore this.

(a) When the excesses on the commonman of even the enemy agent are conducted by the Police or Security Forces under the Policy and guidance of the State, it is surely to be condemned and protested. But when the excesses are the outcome of an individuals personal likes and dis-likes, it is to be punished by the State, Since the law of the land is very much there.

(b) It cannot be denied that India today badly suffers from insurgent and terrorist activities that have support from out side. Of course some anti-national and disgruntled Organisations from within could also the used and are being used for local face lift.

(c) I do not think the Indian Government has on date fallen to low levels and therefore the Human Rights Activists and International Communities should very specifically take note of this while making observations on the affairs of this country.

Inhuman and the human rights :

Human rights are surely violated by the militant Organisations and those who believe in violent protests. Causing a blast in vegetable market and killing an unaware, unarmed mother, blowing off a train compartment leaving crying infants orphaned or killing the poor innocent labour sleeping in the huts are the acts that need to be condemned to finish. It is painful that such acts are rarely condemned so forcefully by the activists. May be they feel that such acts are done by in Human Bodies who have no love lust for Human Rights and humanity is not expected from them. And if so, then if they are denied treatment like a human being. I do not find any reason to look for human rights violation.

A soldier too could be a victim :

A soldier is given the word that one who fires at him is his enemy and the only ''Gift'' to enemy has to be ''death''. And imagine a government putting a soldier on duty in the local areas for security of the innocent commonman from the militants/terrorists and with the direction that while tackling the insurgent due care be taken that no innocent person is hurt or harrassed. The soldier or security person has to wait for the militant to take the initiative to strike to avoid any mis-adventure. This way a security person is made to stand with his hands almost tied behind. Although the policeman or armyman has taken the job of fighting the bullet but he too has the right for using his bullet for active defence and not for passive defence. In this way a Security person too could be a victim of violation of his human rights. This too needs to attract the attention of International Community as well as human right activists. This aspect is mostly being ignored these days by most of the analysts.

In their own Country :

Many talk of 3 lac or 7 lac Kashmiri Pandit Migrants and now J&K government is planning to provide two room pucca accommodation at Jammu in migrant camps to more than 4500 migrant families. In their own country they are migrant for last 10 years and there seems to be hope for immediate return. Is there any bigger Human Rights violation than this? Should it not be the only concern of the Human Right Activists at the International level as far as India is concerned ? And to add to it I will say that over 90 Crore Indians who used to trade in Kashmir valley in eighties are today all migrants since they cannot trade in Kashmir valley the way they did before 1990. Hence, the ''Migrants'' number is in crores and not in lacs. And the plight of people in Poonch and Rajouri District of J&K must too attract the thinkers.

Treason and Human Rights :

And on the other hand the J&K Government has many insurgents and militants living with amenities in the jails after their arrest or surrender who are being even extended normal cover under the common law of the land though many have advocated summary trials for them. It has to be kept in mind that death is the only penalty as is prescribed for traitors in any Nation. One who is a traitor or takes to treason is covered by no law that entitles him to right for justifying the reasons for treason. All compulsions or reasons are too small to justify treason. A criminal murderer or robber may have reasons worth consideration on the extent of punishment but not a traitor. Hence, the Human Rights and their violations have to be put to relative and logical tests by those who own them.

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