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EDITORIAL

RELIGION & POLITICS

While addressing 5th Conference of Indian Congress of Asian & Pacific Studies, Chief Minister Dr Farooq Abdullah besides other topics has also mentioned ingress of religion in politics and vice-versa. This subject is not new. A lot of debate has taken place over the years. Even the fathers of the Indian Constitution had an elaborate discussion about the indespensability of total segregation of religion from politics. In fact secularism stems from this aspect because India happens to be multi-religious society where all religions flourish ....more

WHEAT EXPORTS

It augurs well for the country that quick policy decisions have been put in place to hasten export of surplus wheat. First step was to lower export price to Rs 415 per quintal which is the same as applicable to below poverty line consumers in India. This in fact is the competitive price for international bids. Anything more than that would have not succeeded. Second step is for authorising State agencies like State......more

Guru Granth Sahib: A symbol of 'Shabad' Guru

By Dr Gurcharan Singh
According to Vedic Education, the word "Shabda" is a universe and Brahma. As.....
more

A fresh breath of air

By Aarti
The recent decision of the Delhi Government prohibiting of commercial transport vehicles and private two-wheelers ...
more

Horrors of Nuclear War

By Bimal Bhatia
Every year the Japanese pay homage to those killed in the horrendous nuclear attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki at the ...
..more

Global Oil Shock
Looms Large

By Pramod S. Bhatnagar

When an Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC's) website was defaced by some online vandals, apparently world attention was ...
..more

EDITORIAL

RELIGION & POLITICS

While addressing 5th Conference of Indian Congress of Asian & Pacific Studies, Chief Minister Dr Farooq Abdullah besides other topics has also mentioned ingress of religion in politics and vice-versa. This subject is not new. A lot of debate has taken place over the years. Even the fathers of the Indian Constitution had an elaborate discussion about the indespensability of total segregation of religion from politics. In fact secularism stems from this aspect because India happens to be multi-religious society where all religions flourish in their own respective ways. Yet the debate goes on for the very simple reason that religion continues to over-shadow politics. In fact, even electoral process stands totally vitiated with such religious domination although Representation of Peoples Act bars seeking votes in the name of religion openly. The law is circumvented and skirted in subtle manner when religion-based politics continues to afflict all parties, national and regional alike.

Ingress of religion has to be viewed both from international and national angles. At the international arena, the fundamentalists continue to play havoc with the civilised nations. They have given it the connotation of 'jehad' and any means fair or foul go into play to make a success of it in subverting democracies and disturbing peace and traquility of the global civilised order. Jehad is in fact synonymous to terrorism. But Gen. Musharaff likes to treat it as two different entities. He supports anti-terrorism steps selectively but goes full throttle to exhort and sustain jehadis which in layman's language imply 'liberation of oppressed and Muslims' the world over in any country anywhere. It is difficult to categorise the jehadi brands but the countries behind them are well known for sustaining such movements. Iran, Iraq, Libya, Sudan, Saudi Arabia are on record to sustain one or the other terrorist group. The major concentration these days is however on Taliban brands of Afghanistan. They are known to be extremists to the core and in control of over 90% of Afghanistan. American Under Secretary of State Thomas Pickering now comes out openly warning Pakistan of total Talibanisation unless its rulers take immediate action to stem the rot. He says that Pakistan has been repeatedly warned about the writings on the wall. In the process Pickering traces rise of religion based politics to mushrooming madrassas in Pakistan where poor and deprived students are tamed, indoctrinated and equipped to turn dreaded terrorists. He also says that America would take the help of India and Russia to checkmate such fundamentalist forces that continue to rock world order. Religion has also been used by Bangladesh opposition by branding Prime Minister and her team mates as Indian stooges. When they say India, they mince no words in connoting it as 'Hindu India' to hoodwink Bangladeshis and fine tuning them for fundamentalist overtones.

As regards giving Indian politics the dangerous blend of religion, Jammu & Kashmir has been the prime target. There is ethnic cleansing of minorities from Kashmir, there is the cry for annexation by Pakistan because of Muslim majority character of Kashmir, there are also cries of freedom in the name of religion. It is conveniently forgotten that India is pluralistic society having second largest population of Muslims next only to Indonesia. Two-nation theory resulting in partition has no further scope as far as India is concerned because ours happens to be secular entity. India has flourished as the largest democracy and progress logged by it in all fields is many times more than what Pakistan achieved under religion-based order. So repeated attempts continue to be made to play up religious cards to somehow cause balkanisation of India. Pakistan has failed; so are other countries. It proves resilience of our democratic and secular order which has withstood successfully all onslaughts by the fundamentalist forces both outside and from within.

It is quite apt to mention that religious card is played by almost all the parties. They do so to preserve their respective vote pockets strictly based on religion. So there is competitive politics of appeasement to somehow retain their hold. This is bad enough because any Government or party becoming victorious thus cannot survive for long. The fate of the 114 year old Congress Party is an example. The fate of other parties playing such religious cards every now and then, particularly at election times, is going to be no different. Be it the regional satraps or the national parties or even the Communist parties that are supposed to be athiests, they continue to practise religion-based politics which tends to divide the nation vertically and horizontaly. It is exactly the result of this nasty politics that today India has no less than 1.5 crore Bangladeshis moving freely in India. No party dares evict them as illegal migrants. Laws have been so framed as to protect them and make their eviction difficult rather than force the migrants back into their own country. Attempts are also made by vested interests to redraw boundaries based on religion. This explains why no consensus has been possible even for electoral reforms because none of the parties want it for preservation of their respective vote-pockets.

It is good to have Asian unity on the pattern of European Union (EU). But before that it must happen within the country, the first essential being total segregation of religion from politics.

WHEAT EXPORTS

It augurs well for the country that quick policy decisions have been put in place to hasten export of surplus wheat. First step was to lower export price to Rs 415 per quintal which is the same as applicable to below poverty line consumers in India. This in fact is the competitive price for international bids. Anything more than that would have not succeeded. Second step is for authorising State agencies like State Trading Corporation, Metal & Mineral Trading Corporation and Project Engineers Corporation to tap international markets. These agencies are in the field with vast experience and known to have handled both imports and exports of large quantity of foodgrains. The third step is for creating special cell in Food Corporation of India to monitor and facilitate exports through known agencies. The fourth aspect though not related to export is the mature decision of not giving free or heavily subsidised foodgrains to poorest amongst the poor numbering five crore. It would have been quite a herculean task to identify such five crore hungry mouths and entire allocation would have been siphoned off enroute howsoever populist the measure.

Exports have become inevitable because against the buffer stock of about 12 million tons of wheat needed in the country, the present stocks at 26 million indicate disposable surplus of 14 million tons of wheat. At least 10 million tons is stacked in the open with only tarpaulin covers. Even though at Rs 415, there is heavy subsidy but in the ultimate analysis it is beneficial to the country on three counts. First, export earns precious foreign exchange. Second, it helps farmers to produce more by averting distress sale. Third, Government saves on wastage, rotting and storage of surplus wheat. Lastly, place is vacated for fresh procurements. Once foreign markets are tapped, exports of foodgrains could very easily offset the burgeoning bills on crude oil imports. The policy is sound economically and otherwise.

Guru Granth Sahib: A symbol of 'Shabad' Guru

By Dr Gurcharan Singh

According to Vedic Education, the word "Shabda" is a universe and Brahma. As per Shree Guru Granth Sahib, the Brahm Gyani (A person who properly and completely attains and acquires spiritual education of God or education of Brahm) is himself Parmeshar-God (A true copy of God).

In accordance with spiritual philosophy of human creation but not human evolution of facts, the world of human society was created with and by 'Holy Shabda" and this holy Shabda is running the different worlds. When this human world was created with and by Holy "Shabda", there was no existence of castes, religions and varnas etc. The existence of castes, religions and varnas was the latter development. In order to improve the spiritual education, social awareness, morality, welfareness, upliftment, benefit, get salvation (Moksha), reach God, remain away from sins, better living system and standard of human society in a disciplined manner, love, brotherhood, harmony etc., many holy books came into existence scriptue like Veda, Sutra Granths, Simritis Granths (Manu's Simritis), Puran (Skund Puran of Satya Yug), Epics (Ramayan & Mahabhatra), and other different Bhakti Kavyas Granths such as Geeta, Tulsi Ramayan, holy Bible, holy Tora, Granth of Yahudi's, holy Quran, holy Hadees of Prophet Hazrat Mohd., Lord Budha's Granth, holy Granth prepared by Shree Guru Arjun Dev Ji, holy Dasum Granth of Shree Guru Gobind Singh Ji, Shree Guru Granth Sahib ji (World Shabad Guru) in the form of Living Body of Guru (A spiritual Declaration, method and way), holy Granth of Arya Samaj prepared by Swami Dyanand ji and holy Granth of Jains etc. All holy Granths are true, but the compilation of Shree Guru Granth Sahib is a unique.

With the passage of time, many disputes, conflicts and misunderstandings etc. came into being. In order to remove and wipe out these maladies, inhuman treatment and social evils etc. from the human society, many Devtas, Devis, religious leaders, Avtars, Bhagats, Rishi Munnies and social reformers etc. raised their powerful voices. In Kalya Yug, according to needs, thrusts and necessities of human society, the Supreme Creator (God) sent Guru Nanak Dev Ji to this human world to preach humanity, humanism and socialism etc.

Shree Guru Arjan Dev Ji prepared a holy Granth of humanism, seculrism and socialism by collecting and including the Bani-Vani as well as true sayings and contributions of different religions; Shree Guru Tegh Bhadur Ji offered his holy head (Sees) to protect humanism, secularism and humanity etc; Shree Gobind Singh ji laid the foundation of Sikh Community to bring together all castes, uplift poor and backward castes, remove untouchability, etc. Shree Guru Gobind Singh ji sent his beloved children in the Yud Field to protect humanity (they were martyred) and in the last Shree Guru Gobind Singh ji gave the Gaddhi-throne of Shabad Guru to Shree Guru Granth Sahib which was prepared by Shree Guru Arjan Dev Ji much earlier, and which is in form of World (Jagat) Shabad Guru and comosite culture. In the whole world, there is no other holy granth in the form of Shabad Guru and living body except Shree Guru Granth Sahib.

In detail, Shree Guru Granth Sahib is a holy Shabad Guru - Living body of the Guru in the form of Holy Secular Granth and Composite Culture which includes all religions, castes, sects and varnas. As per spiritual philosophy of human creation, but not human evolution facts, the human world was created by and with Holy Shabad and holy Shabad is running the world. Likewise, Shree Guru Gobind Singh Ji gave the Gaddi-Throne of Shabad Guru to Shree Granth Sahib. Shabad is a universal phenomenon, aspect and concept. Shree Guru Gobind Singh ji did not give the Gaddi-Throne of Guru to his beloved children who were martyred in the Yud Field while protecting humanity, his wife (life partner) any person of Sikh community, blood relative, friend, helper, bani-vani or saying of his gurus only, a self prepared Granth (known as Sacred Dasum Granth of Shree Guru Gobind Singh ji); and the pages of his sacred Dasum Granth were numbered and fixed less than the pages of Shree Guru Granth Sahib. At the time of giving Gaddi-throne to Shree Guru Granth Sahib, Shree Guru Gobind Singh ji offered 5 Takas-paise to Shree Guru Granth Sahib and bowed his head before Shree Guru Ganth Sahib and declared that it is an 'Holy Order" to all Sikhs to consider, and accept Shree Guru Granth Sahib their's "Shabad Guru" in future and not any other Human Person-Deh Dhari Guru after him.

The main idea behind the establishment of "Shabad Guru" was to revive the spirit of Shabad and create the awareness of Shabad in the minds of the people to protect and promote humanity and humanism; to bring together all religions, castes, sects - varnas at one plateform of humanity; bring love, brotherhood, harmony and peace end & wipe out castes, religions and ethnical disputes. Shree Guru Granth Sahib includes the Bani-Vani of Hindu Bhagats, Muslim Sufi Faquirs, and true and pure contributions, happenings, events and abstracts of other religions and religious, leaders and Devtas such as Brahma, Vishnoo, Mahesh-Shiva Jee, Shree Ram Chander ji, Mata Sita ji, Shree Krishan Maharaj and Sister Droupati, Sheikh Farid, Baba Kabir Sahib, and Bhagat Ravi Dass etc.

Shree Guru Granth Sahib is confined to the whole human world and is referred to all religions in a composit form and culture. Moreover, Shree Guru Granth Sahib is a spiritual, religious, social and secular change of Kalyayug and is a unique example of humanity, secularism, socialism and spiritualism on which the Constitution of India is based.

In order to celebrate this Holy Day of Shree Guru Granth Sahib comfortably and freely, there is a need of Holy Public Holiday. Thus, it is my humble request, submission and suggestion to all people of all walks of life to take keen interest to pursuade the Govt. of India to declare public Holiday to improve the above mentioned short comings and lapses of human society. Collective efforts and support of all people of all castes, religions, sects and varnas are required for this spiritual, secular and social changes. Moreover, the blessing of God all Bhagats, Sufi Faquirs, Avtars, Religious leaders, Devtas and Devis etc. (which are in the Shree Guru Granth Sahib) is with them who are ready to celebrate the Establishment Day of Shree Guru Granth Sahib and who are ready to pursuade the Govt. of India for this spiritual act.

At last, it is impossible to celebrate this Holy Day without Public Holiday as every one can be busy in their own service and task, and will have no spare time to celebrate it. In order to celebrate this Holy Day, it is necessary to declare public Holiday in the form of Shabad Day-with and by which the human world was created), All Religions Day, Humanity Day and Secular Day as the Govt. of India would think best.

(The Author is teaching at Jammu University)

A fresh breath of air

By Aarti

The recent decision of the Delhi Government prohibiting of commercial transport vehicles and private two-wheelers aged above 12 and 15 years respectively on the roads effective January 1, 2001, is yet another attempt to improve the deteriorating ambient air quality in the National Capital. If implemented, over 20,000 light and heavy commercial vehicles and 1 lakh two-wheelers would be apparently phased out.

Air pollution levels in Delhi is reportedly claimed to have impoved consequent to various anti - pollution measures including the introduction of Euro II norms and the phasing out of nearly 3850 public transport buses (more than eight years old) and 17,200 autos and 1000 taxis, (all pre - 1990 models) in April this year, following a Supreme Court directive. The cause of concern is the rise in number of cases of respiratory disorders that indicates there are milies yet to go.

When the Central Motor Vehicles Act was amended in 1989, a clause was added to ensure that all automobiles leaving the manufacturing unit complied with emission standards. Especially the carbon monoxide level in tail pipe emission was required not to exceed 4.5 per cent by volume at idling speed. But media reports have shown that apart from being mere knee - jerk reactions, the dubious practices at some pollution checking centres, like using old and worn out filters in the equipment, as also issuing pollution under control certificates even without checking the vehicles, has compounded the situation.

Delhi's typical problem of rising vehicular air pollution is largely caused by congestion due to the large number of vehicles. For want of an efficient public transport system, the number of private cars and two-wheelers has gone up significantly. As such , some 3.3 million plus vehicles of all category (including nearly 16 lakh two-wheelers, which largely comprise of two-stroke engines) elbowing for limited road space, surpassing the combined strength of Calcutta, Chennai and Mumbai, creates avoidable congestion with much of the automobile pollution taking place during idling.

Air pollution levels, measured by the level of suspended particulate matter (SPM), comprising sulphur dioxide and oxides of nitrogen in the ambient air of our metros, have reached alarming proportions. Especially, SPM pollutants in the air exceed the guidelines of the World Health Organisation by more than a factor of two.

Automobiles cause 70 per cent of this pollution -- largely by ill-maintained trucks, buses, taxis, autos and two-wheelers operated on two-stroke engines, which are fuel consuming. Primarily, the slow movement of traffic, besides contributing to higher emission levels of carbon monoxide and other poisonous gases, has been responsible chronic respiratory problems. A large number of people in various studies indicate that the meaningless idling of vehicles, particularly two-stroke engines caught in traffic jams or at traffic signals, pollute more than other vehicles as they emit a larger quantity of carbon monoxide and other toxic gases. Notably, carbon monoxide, reduces the capacity of blood in transporting oxygen from the lungs to the tissues of the body. Its prolonged exposure can trigger allergic reactions that can later aggravate into asthma and damage the respiratory system.

The growing awareness of pollution threats and environmental degradation has led to a number of energy efficiency measures in the west. The high taxes on petrol (ranging from 51 to 73 per cent), a policy adopted in Europe decades ago, as a environmental measure to discourage excessive fuel and encourage the development of cleaner alternative sources is said to have considerably checked pollution levels. San Francisco, one of world's most polluted cities, was able to get rid of the pollution menace in 10 years through strict enforcement of laws. The experience in California illustrates that better environmental rules can lead to environmental friendly cars. In Sweden, private petrol - driven vehicles are forbidden on city roads during weekends to conserve fuel and minimise air pollution. In Great Britain, automobiles are required to be switched off while waiting at on traffic signals.

With many metros literally gasping for clean air, there is an imperative need to check the malaise of hydro-carbon generation from unburned petrol, carbon-monoxide and other carcinogens from tail pipe emissions that affect the society at large, transcending generations. The problems of traffic hassles are too complex to be solved by the police alone. Measures to expedite the execution of ring road projects to divert heavy traffic, mass rapid transport system (MRTS), alternate modes of transport like suburban train services, better roads, coherent urban planning and curbing the indiscriminate use of cars/two-wheelers - all assume significance.

Besides adopting a holistic approach, a time-bound solution to the problem merits consideration. It needs to be realised that merely banning old motor vehicles will not solve the problem of pollution unless all automobile manufacturers upgrade technology.

Most importantly, the quality of fuel has to be improved and people must be encouraged to switch over to alternate green fuel including electric battery and compressed natural gas. Beyond stricter emission norms and upgradation of fuel quality, a well integrated and efficient public transport system that will help to restrict the number of private vehicles, proper traffic management and decongesting the roads coupled with introduction of maintenance guidelines for motor vehicles can lead to a better ambient air quality. Surely, the cause for a clean and healthy environment must begin with clearing the air that is an onerous task demanding everydody's cooperation.

Horrors of Nuclear War

By Bimal Bhatia

Every year the Japanese pay homage to those killed in the horrendous nuclear attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki at the close of World War II. But has the world media portrayed the horrors of these disasters in history to avoid a repeat of this madness? There may be a lesson in particular for India and Pakistan.

Totally devastated and turned into vapour 54 - years ago were the two Japanese cities Hiroshima and Nagasaki, in nuclear attacks, the justification of which is still debated by historians.

It would be constructive to recount the use by the US of the bomb against Japan. The first live test of an atom bomb in New Mexico on July 16, 1945 was successful. By then, the Germans had surrendered but the war against Japan was still on . Field Marshal Montgomery has recorded that Churchill was at once informed of the successful test.

In spite of the agreement by the American, British and Russian delegations at the Potsdam Conference in Berlin to use the bomb against Japan, many others including Monty had considered it unnecessary since Japan had already begun to move for peace some weeks before. Conventional bombing had wreaked thorough destruction and demolished the 'will' of the Japanese to continue the hopeless struggle. Yet the bomb was used. First on Hiroshima on August 6 and later on Nagasaki on August 9, 1945, both of which had been 'preserved' for such purpose, more for political and military reasons.

Three decades after the event the agony still persists. In 1974, Japan's National Broadcasting Corporation (NHK) solicited personal recollection of the atomic bomb. A woman survivor of Hiroshima drew a sketch of a hand against a blue - grey background with the four fingers burning like candles.

She came on the TV and explained that it was one of the sights she was unable to forget -- a corpse on its back with the hand reaching skywards; the fingers alight with a blue flame already shortened to one - third, and with dark liquid dripping to the ground. The woman explained that she could not help thinking that this hand might have embraced a child only a short time while ago.

John Dower in his brilliant book, 'Japan in War and Peace' recounts that over 2,000 paintings, drawings and sketches were submitted to the TV network. These graphics stunned the viewers who saw them in Japan, and they had the same effect in the West when 104 of the pictures were published under the title, 'unforgettable fire'.

These intimate drawings of what got "buned" into the survivors minds told a personal story and virtually bombed the viewer. "It was like hell", most survivors explained. The scenes described were straight out of hell - outlines of bodies etched on streets and walls while the bodies themselves had disappeared. In other cases there were many corpses without apparent injury. And, hold your breath, parts of bodies -- like two legs severed below the knees -- still standing.

Turned into statues were many dead, some solid and others waiting to crumble at a touch. Knocked unconscious a soldier later rushed out to see his comrdes still standing on the drill square. He touched one and saw him crumble instantly.

One woman drew the scene she witnessed as a school-girl, exactly 24 hours after the bombing, which took place while she was away at school. The note accompanying her drawing reads: "The next morning I started from school towards the ruins of my house in Nobori-cho. I passed by Hijiyama. There were few people to be seen in the scorched field. I saw for the first time a pile of burned bodies in the water tank...Then I was suddenly frightened by a terrible sight ... there was a charred body of a woman standing frozen in a running posture with one leg lifted and her baby tightly clutched in her arms.."

Contained on the cover of a textless children's book is a series of graphics -- the flash of the bomb illuminates a mother nursing her child. Subsequent drawing illustrate the mother's transformation into a grotesque corpse as the blast reaches them, even as she instinctively attempts to shield her baby.

In the news, a few years back, was General George Lee Butler, a former chief of the US Strategic Command. As Commander of America's Strategic Nuclear Forces he made a valiant effort to demolish the concept of nuclear deterrence. "How else to accept the proposition that any civilized nation would respond to the act of a madman? he argued.

Butler succeeded in persuading his staff to endorse the cancellation of strategic nuclear force modernisation programmes worth $ 40 billion. Once Butler hung his uniform, his successor endorsed the strategy of deterrence. Perhaps Butler ignored the aspects of human suffering -- still alive in Japanese memory -- to buttress his efforts of ushering in a world free of nuclear brinkmanship.

Today, when world leaders agitate and voice their concerns about the dangers of nuclear proliferation, the images of Hiroshima and Nagasaki could be put to full use to spread the message of nonproliferation and peace.

And to aviod a perilous Indo-Pak nuclear showdown in the future - the probability of which is high - the media on both sides can play a positive role by highlighting the sufferings which nuclear weapons can shower and its long- -term consequences on future generations.

Global Oil Shock Looms Large

By Pramod S. Bhatnagar

When an Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC's) website was defaced by some online vandals, apparently world attention was intended to be drawn to the soaring oil prices. Oil prices have touched their highest levels since 1990 gulf war with no sign of relent in sight. It is more than three fold increase over the past 18 months following a decision by 11 nations in OPEC last year to slash output by 1.7 million barrels per day.

Nervous global markets have since pushed the prices of oil higher amid fears of an impending shortage and doubts that OPEC nations had neither the desire nor the capacity for holding the price-line.

In Asia, the situation appears yet another blow after continuous shortfall. After suffering successive routs triggered by Nasadaq's troubles, capital outflows, political turmoils and on-gain, off-gain corporate re-structuring, now it is oil. During the last decade the Asian countries' dependence on oil has shown significant rise. Obviously the surge in energy costs will hurt the economy.

China, Malaysia and Indonesia are crude exporters while Singapore is a major refiner of petroleum products. Major importers are India, South Korea and Thailand. Higher oil prices will damage these countries currency since oil is price in dollars. Toll has already started getting reflected on Indian rupee and share markets registering new lows lately.

As the global oil stocks have slumped to a 24-year low, European finance ministers have repeatedly met on how to persuade the oil producing states to reduce prices. The French government has been forced to offer further cuts in diesel taxes for truckers who blockaded the country's refineries and organized protests.

The protests have also triggered demonstrations in Britain, Itly, Ireland and Belgium. Protesters in Britain blockaded refineries threatening to bring the nation to a standstill. There is an outcry to reduce fuel taxes. The long queues of automobiles outside petrol pumps replicated the scenes of 1970 oil crisis. So far, Prime Minister Tony Blair has resisted their demand to reduce the fuel taxes as done by the French Government. He, however, talked of contingency power to control the distribution of fuel.

In the United States too, inflation is showing signs of revival spurred by higher oil prices. As the scenario threatens the rosy economic outlook, an alarmed President Bill Clinton approached US' closest gulf ally Saudi Arabia to help in the matter.

Riyadh, under pressure from the world's biggest oil importer the United States, did promise to ease prices back down to $ 25 a barrel. Amidst a growing chorus of complaints around the globe, OPEC members last week met in Vienna but witnesssed heavy resistance from fellow members for such a large increment.

While OPEC agreed to open the oil taps for the third time during the year increasing production by 800,000 barrels per day, Kuwait, fearful like several others, preferred only an extra 655,000 barrels daily. The prices however. continued to rule firm.

While the price increase shows no respite, analysts have warned of a looming third oil shock that will be a crisis both for consumers as well as producers. According to a former Saudi Oil Minister Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani, the rising oil prices will prove the " last hoorah" for OPEC which has been plagued by quota cheating by members in the past eager to make fast buck. Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh also urged all members to observe the production quotas. About the prices, Iran advised OPEC to produce as much oil as it can in order to maintain the prices at a favoured level.

The latest rise in oil prices brushes off the OPEC agreement to lift output by three per cent and also any OPEC promise to contain it. The firmer prices reflect profit making by producers while consuming nations face accelerated inflation and a dent in their economic growth. The United States has patted OPEC on its back for its decision to increase the output as "a step in the right direction" and France echoed the US sentiments. However, India and Germany have felt that the hike was not enough.

Political and diplomatic pronouncements apart, OPEC's shaky credibility largely accounted for themarkets skeptical reaction. Some of the cartel nations have already produced more than their quota, and it is not clear how much additional oil will actually be pumped. As the global economy is left with no production capacity unutilised, the world is likely to face a server energy crisis.

President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, playing host to heads of states of OPEC nations, aggressively pushed for a target price band between $ 22 and $ 28 a barrel. The idea is to adjust the production to maintain these levels. This naturally sounds like a wishful thinking in the present high prices scenario and will require unprecedented degree of co-ordination among the members.

As compared to Asia, the western and industrialised world is less vulnerable to oil shock. The developed countries retain options to counter persistently high oil prices at least temporarily.Europe could lower tax rates on fuel. The US can start exploiting its strategic reserves. As the crude prices are likely to stay firm for some more months to come, the US administration might consider releasing crude from its huge petroleum reserves. Still the best solution lies in increase in production by the oil producing countries.
PTI Feature

 



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