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EDITORIAL

BUSH Vs GORE

It has been one of the closest ever election in America between traditional rivals Republican party and Democratic party. It has also been the highest budget election where besides issues and policies even personnel attacks manifested their ugliness. Presidential election in America is somewhat typical. The President can be from one party while the House of Representatives and Senate can have majority from the other party......more

INFILTRATION

IGP Jammu confirms that infiltration on the international border in Jammu region goes on unabatted. During the current year more than 70 militants have been killed while crossing the border even as total elimination in Jammu province is around 700. This is good go by any reckoning. But worrisome aspect relates to the total number that has successfully infiltrated......more

A View Point
Trifurcation of
Jammu and Kashmir

By Swami Raj Sharma
By now a large cross-section of population particularly from Jammu and Ladakh Sub regions (Leh District and Zanskar Sub Division of Kargal.....more

Of JKCA, Jadeja and
J&K cricket

By Rajesh Dhar
The outright victory over Haryana in the very first Ranji tie of this season is simply the indication of the boosted morale of the Jammu and Kashmir ...more

The Chinese deluge

Dr. Bharat Jhunjhunwala
Cheap Chinese goods are flooding the Indian markets and Indian industry is finally waking up to the flip side of globalization. It is demanding protection .....more

EDITORIAL

BUSH Vs GORE

It has been one of the closest ever election in America between traditional rivals Republican party and Democratic party. It has also been the highest budget election where besides issues and policies even personnel attacks manifested their ugliness. Presidential election in America is somewhat typical. The President can be from one party while the House of Representatives and Senate can have majority from the other party. Even during Clinton's 8 years stint (four years for each term), legislature has been under the control of the Republican party, while President belonged to Democratic party. House of Representatives has 435 seats while Senate has 100 seats. The results indicate that Republican party has already won majority in both the Houses. Now it is the question of who will be the next President. Bush or Gore, who are logged in neck to neck race. At the time of going to Press, recount was on in Florida State where 6 million votes have to be counted. The first count indicated majority of 1,734 votes for George W Bush, which earned him all the 25 votes of Florida to log a total of 271 votes. It may be mentioned that to get elected as President 270 votes are needed.

Coming to specifics and going by the respective manifestos of Bush and Gore, if George Bush wins, it is certain that there will be many changes. It would be apt to divide such changes in two distinct compartments i.e. India-specific and world-specific. As regards India George W. Bush is indeed more favourable on several counts. First, he has made it amply clear that American thrust will not be China specific but India-centric in as far strategic partnership is concerned. He treats China as a competitor and a competitor can never be regarded as strategic partner. It has much deeper ramifications in as much as policies towards India are concerned. One can draw the inference that Bush is inclined to treat India as the balancing force in Asia vis-a-vis rising Chinese military power. This stands duly manifested when Bush says that India is important to USA not only in South Asia but entire Asia as a whole which in other words means assigning it more dominant and strategic role than what Clinton administration has been inclined to do. Second noteworthy aspect relates to CTBT. Clinton administration has been consistently pressurising India to sign CTBT as pre-requisite to opening up better cooperation. Bush has been on record to say that it is not so as far as his administration would be concerned. During Vajpayee's trip to America, Bush had specifically phoned him to reassure India that he values the partnership. Third aspect is that Republican party has been inclined to put a stop on Pak role as State sponsor of global terrorism. In fact, former US President who happens to be father of George W. Bush had put Pakistan on the prospective terrorist list. But Clinton who took over from him removed Pak name from that list and went in for Pressler amendment to supply arms to Pakistan worth 1.1 billion dollars. Various reports of Republican Party on global terrorism have also mentioned Pakistan as the villain not only in J&K but also worldwide. It is to be seen whether Bush, if elected would push the anti-terrorism stance more convincingly than Clinton vis-a-vis Pakistan. It is one thing to be pro-Muslim which Bush happens to be. It is quite another to be strongly anti-terrorists which Bush and Republican Party openly profess and practise. It is to be noted that Republican dominated Senate had rejected ratification of CTBT. It will be watched with interest if Bush would totally scraps it.

As regards global policies, Bush is committed to reduce aid to Russia, withdraw American forces positioned abroad and accelerate its star war programme to put the ABM system in place. He is for authentic measures for strengthening American security against prospective threat perceptions. This means saying goodbye to ABM Treaty of 1972 signed with Russia and going ahead with plans to defend American cities and partners abroad against approaching Inter-Continental missiles. He wants NATO countries in Europe to share the main burden of manpower as much as Japan to contribute more in terms of manning. American forces however reserve the right to intervene in troubled spots worldwide selectively to safeguard its global interests. Bush also wants that aid to foreign countries which is being routed through IMF and World Bank should be made more selective and conditional even as American direct aid would form the major policy thrust to have better leverage with the recipient countries.

Domestically, Bush has promised American middle class large tax cuts which may catapult him to the most powerful seat of power. Clinton administration has done a good job in as much as prosperity is pronounced, inflation is less, employment at the maximum level. Clinton has also been industry friendly. It is to be seen how Bush manipulates the promised tax cuts without disturbing the booming economy.

Taken in its entirety Bush administration would be more business-like, favourable to India and strongly anti-terrorists. To that extent there could be pressure on Pak military rulers to mend their ways vis-a-vis compulsive hostility towards India and sponsorship of terrorism in Jammu & Kashmir. Contrarily, if recount goes in favour of Al Gore in Florida, he becomes the President and Clinton's policies would continue without any change, be it for India or globally.

INFILTRATION

IGP Jammu confirms that infiltration on the international border in Jammu region goes on unabatted. During the current year more than 70 militants have been killed while crossing the border even as total elimination in Jammu province is around 700. This is good go by any reckoning. But worrisome aspect relates to the total number that has successfully infiltrated. As per army sources and intelligence intercepts 3 to 5 thousands jehadis are waiting across the border for infiltration. The latest call of Lashkar-e-Toiba dreaded militant outfit which has its headquarters in Lahore and which controls the suicide squads has charted the road map to make a success of so-called jehad. This comprises of three significant formulations. First, LeT will not permit holding of talks with the Indian Government. Second, Lashkar will spread its tentacles to other parts of the country to teach anti-Muslim forces some lessons. Third, it would go the whole hog in foiling conspiracies of western countries against continuance of jehadi organisations. It has also warned Pakistan Government not to pursue the American game-plan vis-a-vis marginalisation of Afghan Talibans and jehadi outfits in Pakistan. Another militant outfit active in J&K namely Hizbul Mujahideen has threatened to accelerate its activities. The worst part of the entire scenario is that none in the power hierarchy strikes positive note. They all keep their fingers crossed hoping that all would be over. Some predict normalcy in two years and some stretch it to 20 years. And of course some cannot ignore the former slain Pak Premier Zulfiquar Ali Bhutto's call for 1000 year war to annex Kashmir. While one can indeed commend the remarkable achievements of security forces in Jammu region in particular (security forces include State police as well), one tends to be worried about the fresh infiltration. There is no indication from any quarter whether rate of infiltration now is less than rate of elimination of ultras. Unless this is true and rate of elimination is having substantial edge over rate of infiltration, normalcy shall ever remain elusive. One expects that the arithmetic is properly worked out and rate of elimination accelerated substantially in all sectors, not Jammu alone. Otherwise, people would continue to remain victims of indiscriminate blood-spillage.

A View Point
Trifurcation of Jammu and Kashmir

By Swami Raj Sharma

By now a large cross-section of population particularly from Jammu and Ladakh Sub regions (Leh District and Zanskar Sub Division of Kargal District) including some political parties are advocating the establishment of a separate State hood for Jammu and Kashmir Divisions respectively and Union Territory status for Ladakh. It's supporters say that the demand is based on the call of history to meet the sub-regional aspirations of the three regions by doing away with the present domination of Valley over the others. It is based on logic and merits. Its opponents oppose it by saying that if conceded it will disintegrate the State. It may also lead to communal tension and migration of population from one division to the other. Let us examine the two view points dispassionately and objectively.

HISTORICAL GENESIS OF THE SUBJECT

History is the root and politics is the fruit. Does the present demand find support from history is the first question to be answered. Stated very briefly the present State of Jammu and Kashmir came into existence as one of newly carved out princely States of erstwhile India in 1846 AD by virtue of the Treaty of Amritsar 1846 A.D. executed between the British Raj and Maharaja Gulab Singh. For various political and military reasons the British Raj did not favour the retention of area between Ravi and Sindh secured by them under a separate Treaty from the Sikh Darbar of Lahore earlier and transferred this entire area to Gulab Singh for a consideration of Rupees seventy five lacs.

For carving out a new State Pannikar calls Gulab Singh as Ulleyssis of the hills of 19th century India and his creation of the new State of Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh as a miracle of history. This is one side of the picture. What is the other side which is more relevant for our purpose directly touching the present subject. The other side of the picture has been summarised in the best form by B. N. Mullick (Ex-Director C.B.I. in his book My Years With Nehru). He graphically touches the truth by stating "Ladakh, Kashmir and Jammu were brought together by an autocrat through the power of his sword and diplomacy and held them together as a single unit under the despotic rule. But after the ushering in of democracy in 1947 the day is not far off when the three regions are bound to re-assert their legitmate regional aspirations for autonomy as separate entitles of the State" I fully endorsed this view for obvious reason that prior to 1846, Ladakh, Kashmir valley and Jammu region have remained as separate socio-cultural and political entities for ages each having a separate culture, language, traditions and aspirations including the basic aspiration of enjoying and exercising independent political autonomy. From political autonomy alone flows economic and administrative autonomy, without the first, the later two are distant vanishing dreams. Time is ripe to assert and attain regional aspirations by Jammu and Ladakh as visualised by B. N. Mullick.

A - Digression

Jammu and Ladakh regions could not assert this right in a proper degree so for. The Central Govt, also never thought of re-organising Jammu and Kashmir like other 500 odd princely States of India. The State of Jammu and Kashmir got engulfed in a serious Indo-Pak conflict right from 1947 when the Afgan Tribals supported by Pak Army attacked Kashmir in 1947 and Jawaharlal Nehru the most illustrious Prime Minister of India committed the historical blunder of refering the complaint to the UNO much against the advice of his Cabinet and a man like Mahatama Gandhi. The dispute became more acute and prolonged. Jawahar Lal Committed another military blunder in 1947 by ordering pre-mature cease - fire with Pakistan when Indian forces hardly needed a week more to recover the entire State territory from Pakistan when the Pakistani forces well on the retreat and Indian forces made persistent proposal to the Govt of India to allow them to recover the entire area. The war of 1947 was followed by the war of 1962, but the dispute remained unsettled in 1971 war. Indira Gandhi the other illustrious Prime Minister of India committed another blunder when she handed over all the 90,000 captured soldiers to Pakistan together with Chhamb area, of Jammu and Haji Peer Pass on Poonch Muzfarabad road without settling the Kashmir dispute with Pakistan. The continuity of the dispute gave no time to the concerned parties to raise there-organisation issue of the State. Rather raising such an issue was made a political regional autonomy through the amendment of the Constitution as put forth by Jammu Regional Autonomy Forum headed by Balraj Puri. At the same time, New Delhi made no serious and purposeful attempt to put Jammu and Kashmir in the national mainstream, Democracy was stiffled in broad day light and dissent was curbed with full vigour. The people, especially the youth became frustrated and disillusioned and fell into the net of eagerly awaiting fundamental forces across the border. In this dust and din the Valley dominated Government started neglecting, discriminating and dominating the other two sub-regions in the matter of sharing political power, economic development and administrative equality. The think tank of National Conference never inducted men of proven merit from Jammu in its inner Circle on policy formulation or as members of the important Committees constituted from time to time on sensitive issues despite the liberal mind of the present Chief Minister. The discrimination started getting felt more sharply and more painfully as the years passed on. Two important recommendations were made by Gajindergadkar Commission to lessen the pangs of regional imbalances. Among other things, it suggested that if the Chief Minister of the State hails from one Division the Dy. Chief Minister should be taken from the other. Secondly, it recommended the establishment of statutory Regional Development Boards to prepare development plans for each region by receiving equitable funds for the purpose from the State and the Centre and also to supervise the plans fo District Development Boards. These recommendations were never implemented in letter and spirit. The demand of Jammu Division to create new district at Kishtwar, Reasi and Samba based on justice Wazir Commission report was not considered by the Kishtwar itself is more in areas as compared to the six Districts of the Valley. As against this three new districts were created in the Valley without public demand. One of such new districts Budgam is located at the distance of 13 KM from Srinagar district only. The demand for union territory status for Leh and Zanskar is supported by both Ladakhi Buddhist Association and Ladakh Muslim Association. They have been given Autonomous Development Council for Leh without financial autonomy and appropriate political devolution of powers. It is a financially starved and politically defunct council.

It cannot fulfill the aspirations of local population having a distinct culture, language, history and developmental problems. The result is continuous friction and conflict with the powers that be at Srinagar at the cost of healthy development mutual harmony and contentment of the people. Every rational citizens of the State has to endorse the view that things for Jammu Division are being made complicated more and more by the Valley dominated think tank of the National Conference.

In the matter of granting more internal autonomy to Ladakh and Jammu regions by developing and delegation more political powers upon each the think tank created history of all sorts when it recommended (through the Regional Autonomy Committee) creation of three divisions (in place of one) in Jammu division and three in Valley (in place of one) and one in Ladakh. This proposed re-organisation of the State is most degressive, shorn of all administrative norms but fully influenced by communal overtones to create two Muslim dominated divisions in Jammu and Jammu as the only Hindu, majority, division. Doda Mahore and Poonch-Rajouri cannot be viable divisions. Likewise Anantnag - Pulwama, Srinagar Budgam and Baramulla - Kupwara are too small and unviable proposed divisions such to get parity with Jammu. These three divisions were three district till 1979. Even creation of three more districts in the Valley in 1979 was patently unviable like the creation of Budgam district at a distance of 13 KM from Srinagar. As against this the question of establishing a new district at Kishtwar as recommended by Wazir Commission, which is more in area then the combined area of six districts of the Valley was never conceded alongwith other new districts proposed for Samba and Reasi. Such type of administrative indulgence on the part of National Conference Think tank speaks volumes about the motive behind the proposal. Mahore has age old link and relations with Reasi. Vehicular road from Reasi to Mahore via Arnas has made the links more close. Delinking Mahore from Reasi and attaching it with Doda is just to create a Muslim majority division on communal grounds. Let it also be known to the general readers that in Doda district out of seven Tehsils, three are Hindu majority, namely Ramban, Bhaderwah and Thathri. One, nemely Doda has 50-50 ratio of the two communities, the other three are Muslim majority. The proposed creation of new division being totally communal oriented is not acceptable to Hindus and majority of Muslims of the district who have age old links with Jammu. The absolute majority of Muslims in District Doda can speak Dogri and Punjabi and culturaly the rural population has closer cultural links with Jammu and Himachal Pradesh. The District Doda does not merit linking with Mahore which will create general resentment in the district. It will also create inconvenience to the general public of Mahore. The Muslim majority districts of Poonch -Rajouri have three pre-dominently Hindu populated Tehsils, namely, Sunder Bani, Nowshera and Kalakote. These will certainly opt for Jammu divisions, Rajouri Tehsil has 50-50 ratio. Gujjars and Bakkarwals, and Rajput convert Muslims have traditional cultural, linguistic and trade links with Jammu and Punjab. The other of Muslim community from these districts also have age old links with Jammu and they have no aspiration to have separate division for them, but the present Govt has done it for them for the consideration other than the wishes of the people. This perception is fully verified by the author when he served as Deputy Commissioner in these districts.

FINDINGS OF THE RESEARCH STUDY.

To continue with the digression a little further fruitfully, Dr Navnit Chada has recently conducted a research study on the issue titled "State Identity and Violence Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh". She has come to the finding that "Little is known about the plurality of the State with diverse communities such as Dogra, Gujjars and Bakkarwals, Kashmiri Pandits and Ladakhis, Buddhists for whom the right of self-determinaton has little appeal and less is known about their political aspirations and political choices. Each is engaged in a little battle for nurturing its won socio-cultural identity seeking avenues of social and economic development and creating their own political space." Taking note of this finding a leading scholar on public Administration, Dr Panandikar (Director Centre for Policy Research New Delhi) has suggested that "international community should also be sensitised towards this multi-faceted character of the Kashmir conflict because the sub-regional demands have not been conceded." Kashmiri Pandits who have been forced to migrate from the Valley are justified to demand a separate home land in Valley if the Govt cannot ensure their security in different nooks and corners of the Valley where they originally lived.

Before 1846 AD the whole of Kashmir valley, Ladakh and major parts of Jammu division were under the domination of Sikh State of Lahore. All the regions aspired for freedom and liberty from Lahore. In 1846 Dogra Rule was founded by Gulab Singh. The Valley and Ladakh came under the domination of Jammu. The Valley and Ladakh regions aspired for freedom from the Dogra rule. In 1947, the Dogra rule came to end and with the help of more numerical strength of MLAs from the Valley the political and administrative powers were centralised by the Valley. The Valley started dominating Jammu and Ladakh regions by stiffling their regional aspirations. If Jammu would have got more numerical strength of MLAs after 1947 it would have equally dominated the Valley and Ladakh regions. Such is and has been the historical frame work of Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh regions. The Valley is not inclined to grant internal constitutional autonomy to Jammu and Ladakh sub-regions for the last 53 years, it would not do so in the coming future. The Centre is equally non-responsive in the matter but keeping in view the sub-regional aspirations culture, language and customs the demand for trifurcation seems legitimate. Once this goal is achieved all the three sub-regions will live peacefully as good neighbours without any ill will or domination of one over the others.