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EDITORIAL The two-month long budget session that commences from today is going to be one of the stormiest. Opposition parties are fully equipped with enough of contentious issues that can put the government on the defensive. Some of these issues are the results of defective policies pursued during the year while others are a natural corrollary to the hostile environs faced by the country. On the government side, there is a list of positive movement forward and giving massive fillip to sagging economy that shows definite signs of looking up. There are several pending bills and some new ones to be introduced which call for cooperation with the main opposition party because ruling NDA lacks requisite majority in Rajya Sabha. During last session such cooperation resulted in passing of very important legislations crucial to the success of economy. One really does not know whether similar bon-homie yet exists because opposition.......more |
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Sorry! but the Bihar's oppressive elite Kandahar Lesson: Build
intervention capability Will there be an end to
Sino-Pak entente? |
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EDITORIAL The two-month long budget session that commences from today is going to be one of the stormiest. Opposition parties are fully equipped with enough of contentious issues that can put the government on the defensive. Some of these issues are the results of defective policies pursued during the year while others are a natural corrollary to the hostile environs faced by the country. On the government side, there is a list of positive movement forward and giving massive fillip to sagging economy that shows definite signs of looking up. There are several pending bills and some new ones to be introduced which call for cooperation with the main opposition party because ruling NDA lacks requisite majority in Rajya Sabha. During last session such cooperation resulted in passing of very important legislations crucial to the success of economy. One really does not know whether similar bon-homie yet exists because opposition has already put the government on notice over many issues. First, it is the budget itself. Finance Minister has already indicated and alerted people to be ready for harsh budget to plug the burgeoning deficit which has already crossed the budgetary provision of current fiscal. The Petroleum Minister has mentioned inevitable hikes in Kerosene and Liquid Petroleum Gas which had the budgeted subsidy element of 12000 crore but overstepped the same by no less than 4000 crore due to increased demand. Some ministers have talked about reduction in food subsidy supplied through Public Distribution System (PDS) which accounts for another 12000 crore annual burden. There are three ways to reduce this burden. First, to take the creamy layer off the PDS. Second, to increase the administered prices of food grains supplied through PDS. Third, better management of entire PDS so that it percolates to the targeted population. This essentially calls for either scrapping some schemes like Targeted PDS or reducing its scope from 36 crore eligibles to say half the number (10 kg foodgrains are supplied per ration card at half the administered price). There is also the mention of reducing farm subsidies on fertilisers, taxing farm income of rich farmers a discarding free power/water syndrome that is more a populist measure than having any economic co-relation. There is tremendous pressure on the government to enhance.IT exemption limit but government is in mood to bring at least 2.5 crore persons in the IT net from the prevailing 1.5 crore. Then there is the annual ritual of hiking postal, telecom and railway tariff. All these are unpopular measures and opposition is going to give tough time to the treasury benches. The rosy side is that inflation has remained well under control during the year and government can indeed take some corrective fiscal liberties to reduce the deficit to manageable level. In the process, if inflation rate shoots up by 1% point to say between 3 to 4%, it is a good going for any economy. The fact is government is going for the hikes as it has few options to accelerate the growth of the economy to achieve 6 to 7% increase in GDP (Gross Domestic Product). To balance harsh steps there may be some soft touch here and there but the scope is limited. Second pertinent issue relates to promotion of hidden agenda by the BJP. This stems from lifting of ban on joining RSS by government employees in Gujarat state followed by Uttar Pradesh. Although Prime Minister has said that no such instructions would be issued as regards central government employees, the opposition is in mood to corner the government. Their attacks will be mainly directed against supporting partners in the ruling alliance like the DMK, Telugu Desam, Samata and JD (U) challenging their secular credentials by overtly and covertly acquiescing with the hidden agenda of BJP. The entire idea is to draw as many fissures in the NDA as possible and in the process achieve the dual purpose of weaning away minority vote pockets from the alliance partners. The government shall have to tread a very cautious path on this count. Third contentious issue relates to fast deteriorating security environs with particular reference to insurgency in J&K State and the north eastern states besides the Naxalite menace in the Bihar/Orissa/ Madhya Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh where more and ambushes continue to occur by the day. There is no denying the fact that there has been massive slide down in J&K security and opposition parties owe it to their electorate to thrash the government for laxity and pusillanimity in tackling the hard-core mercenaries in the state. In the process NC government in the state would be attacked most venomously as party also happens to be NDA partner in the centre. True, government would rightly claim Pokhran nuclear tests, eviction of intruders from the Kargil sector and successful bringing back of hijacked plane from Kandahar. But on the debit side, opposition has large ammunition to fire at the government for gross mismanagement of internal security in particular. Although government has promised tabling of the Subramaniam Committee report on Kargil fiasco, this could indeed provide additional material to the opposition for projecting total failure of the government on the security front. Fourth point relates to creation of Constitution Review Panel. The entire opposition is unanimous that the exercise is meant to promote the hidden agenda of the Sangh Parivar. Even President K R Narayan has questioned the need for such review of the Constitution. The treasury benches have equipped themselves with enough of material to neutralise opposition attack, including formation of Manmohan Singh Committee to seek review of the Constitution. This committee was formed when Congress was in power and the government had mentioned that there was imperative need of reviewing the Constitution as it had failed on many counts. This aspect is being given a casteist tinge by the opposition parties projecting the review to be an insult to the father of the Indian Constitution Dr B R Ambedkar with an eye to appease particular vote pocket. Similarly, apprehension are sought to be planted in the minds of minorities. Treasury benches shall have to be watchful and take the battle right inside the opposition ranks. Fifth, there are many bills to be introduced. By far the most acrimonious bill which was introduced on the last day of Winter Session of Parliament pertains to Women Reservation in Lok Sabha and state assemblies. The debate on this bill is going to be quite stormy with protagonists and detractors of quota within quota using their full lung power and may be even muscle power. It is pertinent to mention that whenever this bill was introduced or sought to be introduced, there was total bedlam in the House. This time it is going to be no different. It is yet to be seen whether this bill would see the light of the day even during budget session or it would be referred to another expert/standing committee. The women members cutting across party lines would blend the debate with feminine fireworks. Perhaps ready availability of all items, cheap onions and cheap potatos/tomatos besides cheap edible oils are the points that would help government as the one that knows how to balance supply and demand. |
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Sorry!
but the constitution has failed us Addressing the Nation on the Republic Day President K R Narayanan said "Beware of the fury of the patient and long suffering people." He warned that the fury of the suffering people would no longer be held in the check unless the benefits of the economic progress reached them. The very fact that the President spoke in such strong words regarding the Nation's sad state of health, in his address to the Nation and again in his speech at the celebratory function of 50 years of the Indian Constitution, goes to show as to how unbearable the conditions for majority of the people have become. Speaking in the function the Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee said that the constitution will have to be reviewed in the light of "new situation that India faces." Though initially the Congress and the left parties opposed the move the contraposition cooled down as the opposition parties perceived the growing public support for the move to review the statute. Now many even in the Congress party are feeling that no harm would come if the Constitution is reviewed. The review Commission has since been constituted with former Chief Justice of India M N Venkatchaliaha as its chairman. Setting up the Commission the cabinet resolution says "The commission shall examine in the light of the experience of the past 50 years as to how far the existing provisions of the Constitution are capable of responding to the needs of efficient, smooth and effective system of governance and socio-economic development of modern India and to recommend changes if any that are required to be made in the Constitution within the frame work of parliamentary democracy without interfering with the basic structure or basic features of the Constitution." A country's constitution is supposed to create and develop a polity which, above all, is free from glaring economic disparities. Thus the guarantee of social security, justice and equality has to be so watertight as to eliminate any possibility of exploitation of the poor and the vulnerable sections of the society such as women, children and the elderly. A society, in the ultimate analysis, is the product of the constitution it upholds for itself. The question is not only of examining the Constitution and recommending amendments to it. The urgent need is to identify the structural faults; the points at which it is weak, yielding, indifferent and lackadaisical. How sad it is that even after 50 years of the adoption of the Constitution majority of the Indians are still denied the basic needs of life. While on the one had some people "guzzle aerated beverages", over 60 percent of the people, on the other hand, fail even to get safe drinking water. Over one third of our countrymen live below the poverty line. India has the largest number of illiterate and majority of its women folk go without any education at all. Worst of all the country's population which was 33 crore in 1947 has increased to 100 crore by the end of 1999. The runaway growth continues unabated and by the end of the year 2000 the country will have another 1.5 crore added to its population. The moral fabric of the Nation was sound and firm at the dawn of independence. The oft stated fact to prove this point is that in pre independence days a woman, unaccompanied and loaded with jewellery, could travel from Peshawar (now in Pakistan) to Mumbai without any fear of being molested or looted. With passing of every year after adopting the Constitution the Indian society has slipped more and more into the quagmire of degraded morals and less and less for fear of punishment for immoral and criminal behaviour. Today we have a political system in which the politicians have not only to shake hands with the criminals but also seek their help to win the elections. Encouraged by the system itself many criminals, supported by political parties, have fought the elections and many by instilling fear in the minds of the voters, have entered the state legislatures and even the Parliament. The result is that in every session of the Parliament or the State Assemblies scenes that look like street brawls are frequently witnessed. We have a system where for a person of meager means the judiciary is no more source of seeking and getting justice. Thus in a Republic where the law makers and the law dispensers both lack credibility what good can the citizenry hope from it. Fifty years back the Constitution was adopted and in the fifty years 79 amendments have been made to it. Despite so many amendments the situation has worsened. The extent of corruption has become monumental. No section of the society has been left untouched by the scourge of corruption. There has been manifold increase in the lawlessness. Well armed private armies have been raised which commit loot, murder and rape without any fear of punishment. In many parts of the country the writ of the Government does not run. Mafia, gangsters and extortionists harass the innocent masses in cities and towns. Despite tall claims by the Government the ISI of Pakistan has been able to spread its tentacles in many "warm" pockets in the country. Cases of families committing suicide due to poverty and bride burning due to greed are reported more and more frequently in the media. Inspite of the claim that the Constitution is based on the edifice of secularism the communal feelings are taking hold of the minds of the people. The elections are fought on the basis of caste and religion. Besides getting help from goonda elements, communal and caste based vote banks have been developed by politicians to win elections. However, there are only the symptoms of a deep malady with which the Indian society has been afflicted. The virus that has entered into the body politic of the nation has to be identified. It is exceedingly realised that there are chinks, loop holes and many lacunae in the Constitution which permitted the virus to infect the society at large and to grow into the present threatening proportions. The question that begs an answer is as to who and what is responsible for the birth and growth of the monsters of corruption, nepotism, communalism and casteism which are shaking the very foundations of the Republic. It would be unfortunate if the issue is politicised. As the NDA does not have two third majority in the Parliament to make any effective changes in the Constitution, hostility to have a second look at the document and its working would result in turning even the effort of reviewing it into a futile exercise. A consensus among the political parties in the Parliament is necessary to make suitable changes in the Statute so that India could effectively face the challenges of the new millennia. How can this country face the challenge posed by completely changed global politico-economic scenario unless radical changes are effected in the country's Constitution. Based on our past experience with amending the Constitution so many times, it can be said with enough certaintity that mere alternations in the statute shall not deliver the goods to the poor and the down trodden in his country. Globalisation of the economy lays additional formidable burden on the already creaking scaffolding of the Constitution and as it progresses, the poor is bound to become poorer and the rich richer, unless far reaching changes are made in the Nations law book. |
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Kandahar Lesson: Build
intervention capability India's capability to intervene militarily beyond its borders in situations such as the recent hijacking of Indian Airlines plane to Kandahar is woefully inadequate. In the present era of strategic uncertainty, where nations are confronted with complex challenges and asymmetric threats on a regular basis, it is essential for a regional power with India's responsibilities and aspirations to develop the ability to intervene internationally to safeguard national security interests and lives and property to our diplomats and citizens living abroad. In addition to a trained and rapidly deployable force equipped with the necessary hardware, it is also important to develop and propagate an interventionist strategic plan that is credible enough to deter hijackers, mercenaries and terrorists. It is difficult to imagine countries like the United States and Israel sitting back and waiting for events to unfold, or waiting for a United Nations (UN) representative (as India during the hijacking of Indian Airlines plane to Kandahar) to shuttle between Kandahar, Kabul and Islamabad as an intermediary when the lives of over 150 of their nationals are at stake. US attempted to bold and valiant rescue act during the Carter administration when lives of its embassy staff at Teheran were at risk. The mission had to be aborted due to various technical problems, but it was not for want of trying. Israel pulled-off a spectacular and admirable military operation at Entebbe airport in Uganda, over a thousand km away, to bring to an end the hijack drama in an Air France aircraft. There are undoubtedly great risks in launching such rescue operations. The chances of success can never be better than fifty-fifty. Along with the hostages and the terrorists, some military personnel may also die. There is also international opinion to contend with. In recent years, a strong anti-terrorism opinion has coalesced and wanton acts such as hijacking are universally condemned. Hence, the Indian establishment need not worry on these counts atleast. In the situation that prevailed in Afghanistan, if India had a plan to intervene militarily to end the hijack drama, it need not have worried about Taliban regime's attitude or possible annoyance as India does not recognise it. It is rogue regime that cannot purport to claim that it is the legally-constituted Government of Afghanistan and is far from being genuinely representative of the people of Afghanistan. US did not seek the Taliban's permission before launching a cruise missile attack on Osama bin Laden's terrorist training camps in the Afghanistan. Only Pakistan, its surrogate parent, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), all Islamic states, have recognised the Taliban Government. Perhaps, the real reason for India choosing to forego the military rescue option, which should be the first option to be considered under such circumstances , was that India lacked the military capability to plan and execute the type of operation that the situation demanded. Since the operation involved overflying either Pakistan's or Iran's airspace to reach Kandahar, cooperation of these countries was necessary. However, given our relations with Pakistan, it was unlikely to be forthcoming. Iran, too, may have chosen to turn-down an Indian request to permit military aircraft to overfly its territory for an operation in Afghanistan, despite its present differences with the Taliban regime. This would have left India with the option of mounting an operation from one of the Central Asian republics -- Tajikistan, Uzbekistan or Turkmeni-stan. Though these countries support the anti-Taliban Northern Alliances, it is doubtful whether they would have permitted India to use their airbases for a military operation in Afghanistan. Last, but not least, the Indian task force would have had Kandahar's air and ground defences to contend with. A military rescue operation of this nature would require one or more Special Forces battalions (para commandos) to be para-dropped or landed to seize the airfield in the dead of night and ensure the neutralisation of any ground threat during the operation. The crack anti-hijack squad of the National Security Guard (NSG) could then storm the aircraft and eliminate the hijackers as per previously rehearsed assault procedures so that the hostages are not harmed. The Indian Air Force (IAF) would need to maintain fighter aircraft on Combat Air Patrol (CAP) on station above the airport while the operation is in progress to ensure air defence against the ramshackle Taliban Air Force. If the target airport is beyond the range of IAF fighter aircraft, as Kandahar was, reliance would need to be placed enitrely on shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles of the air defence artillery. Alternatively, air-to-air refueling capability needs to be developed. Ideally, AWACS aircraft should control the entire operation, including early warning of enemy responses. On the successful completion of the operation, a sufficiently large number of transport aircraft like IL-76 would be required to land and fly away the hostages and the assaulting troops and then be escorted safely out of Afghan airspace back to the mounting base. It does not need to be emphasised that the success of a rescue operation hinges on the availability of accurate intelligence and speedy decision-making as time factor is important. The conclusion that can be drawn is that at present India does not have a trans-border capability to put an operation of this magnitude together under adverse military conditions. There is no gainsaying that an interventionist capability needs to be urgently created as similar situations are likely to occur with greater frequency in the future. It may be necessary to eliminate militant organisation such as LTTE or Aceh rebels who may choose to clandestinely operate from Indian islands in the Andaman and Nicobar and Lakshadweep and Minicoy groups of islands. The minimum essential requirement is to be able to launch a Special Forces battalion group into action, with the necessary strategic airlift, air defence and intelligence acquisition capability within 24 hours of the occurrence of an incident in the Southern Asia region, on land and at sea. Ideally, the capability should be able to plan and implement a brigade-group size intervention operation at short notice. Such a capability can and must be gradually built up. PTI feature |
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Will there be an end to
Sino-Pak entente? An extremely important facet of the Chinese encounter with modern South Asia is the strategic partnership which has developed between Pakistan and Peoples' China. Their 'time tested' and 'all weather' friendship is in stark contrast to the Sino-Indian relationship. After being relatively warm in the 1950s Sino-Indian relations plunged following the 1962 war. The special relationship between Islamabad and Beijing, still remains the basis of an unstable triangle involving, now, the three Asian nuclear powers. China's support for Pakistan has enabled that country to play a role in South, South-West and Central Asia, larger than its population, economy or domestic technological capacity would have allowed it to play. Besides, China, Pakistan was supported in the build up of its military capabilities also by the United States, first in the 1950s and later in the 1980s, the latter relationship being directly the consequence of the Soviet Union's intervention in Afghanistan. This support from two of the world's most powerful countries gave Pakistan the time, the opportunity and the protective umbrella to develop nuclear weapons, so that it now poses a threat to India, a country whose population is seven times larger and whose economy is now eight times the size of Pakistan's. China's actions following the 1998 nuclear tests by India and Pakistan, particularly its attitude towards the Kargil crisis and the nuclear and missile relationship which has developed between North Korea and Pakistan, indicate how much the time-tested and all-weather relationship is changing. Following the tests in May 1998, Chinese statements indicated that Sino-Pakistani strategic cooperation remained in place. Nevertheless, when Pakistan sought Chinese support and advice during and after the Kargil crisis, Chinese leaders counselled restraint. No evidence, however, exists to suggest that Sino-Pakistani cooperation, in the politico-military dimension, has been reduced after the Kargil crisis and subsequently, after the Pakistani army's take-over of that country's state apparatus. With General Musharraf receiving, during his recent visit to China, Beijing's pledge that it will continue to foster its comprehensive partnership with Pakistan', Pakistan's military rulers will feel more secure than they otherwise would. Undoubtedly, Islamabad hopes to receive significantly increased economic assistance from China, which it desperately needs. On the issue of Pakistani-North Korean cooperation and China's role in facilitating such cooperation, it must be remembered that China remains the strongest ally of both these countries. Available assessments indicate that Islamabad has received tested designs for its nuclear weapons from Beijing and tested launch vehicles _ the No Dong Missile _ from North Korea. No one can doubt that the delivery of North Korean missiles and the transfer of the technology to manufacture them could have occurred without Beijing's explicit approval. The Pakistani military's confidence in its own nuclear and missile capacity _ without having gone through the 10-12 year process of developing and testing such technologically advanced weapons systems - surely confirms that a North Korean-Pakistani nexus has existed in the missile and nuclear fields for many years. If Pakistan has already acquired miniaturised nuclear war-head designs and missiles capable of delivering them, it does not much matter that Pyongyang and Islamabad are both bankrupt. If, however, this cooperation is continuing it must surely worry all who live in North-East Asia just as it worries South Asian, what the only currency that a broke Pakistan has to offer to a desperate North Korea, is the transfer of nuclear weapons technology. Since the drive for 'the four modernisations' began two decades ago, China's leadership has displayed a pragmatic realism in almost all its actions. One aspect of Chinese pragmatism is ruthlessness. Even while the Sino-Indian relationship was improving, China continued its transfer of missiles and nuclear technology to Pakistan although, admittedly, the larger part of the damage to Indian security interests had been done before Rajiv Gandhi's visit to Beijing in December 1998. The Chinese have done their work in Pakistan well. Now that Pakistan has achieved a degree of self-reliance in the production of weapons of mass destruction and is developing the medium-range missiles to deliver these, China can disassociate itself from Pakistan's predisposition for military adventures and brinkmanship. Beijing's reluctance to openly support Pakistan during the Kargil crisis, can be seen as a consequence of the 'primacy its leaders have given to economic development. With a per capita income of only about US $700 per annum, China, in the words of its Ambassador to New Delhi, Zhou Gang, needs "the unremaining efforts and hard struggle of several, and even over a dozen generations, to realise the goal of China's modernisation. Therefore, China needs a long-term stable international environment of peace and a friendly, peripheral environment of good neighbourliness." China's 'positive neutrality', as between New Delhi and Islamabad since the Kargil crisis, has something to do with the ups and downs of the Sino-US relationship. China does not want a hostile India, while it is in confrontation with the US over Taiwan. Perhaps also China's pragmatic leaders understand, like American leaders have, that India's potential as an important player in the world system, both in the economic and politico-military dimensions, necessitates a shift in its South Asia strategy. Already two-way Sino-Indian trade exceeds US $2 billion and the potential for commercial relations and tourism are immense. Only time will tell whether China will end its policy of bolstering Pakistan's military machine. Given the current tense state of Indo-Pakistani relations and the threat to use nuclear weapons and missiles, which regularly emanate from Islamabad, Chinese leaders have a responsibility to persuade their Pakistani friends to desist from military adventures and 'strictly abide by the basic norms of international relations'. If indeed China plays a constructive role, the two Asian giants which have coexisted without conflict for over three millennia, can share with their hundreds of millions of underprivileged and impoverished fellow Asian the bounties of the coming 'Asian Century'. INAV |
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