Daily Excelsior... Editorial

EDITORIAL

Today is World AIDS Day
AIDS : Alarm bells
are ringing

By Aarti
AIDS : men make the difference'', the theme of this year's World AIDS Day, (observed globally on 1st December) is of special significance to India since .....more

The taming of inflation

By M.N. Minocha
It is almost six months now since inflation has been rising and is hovering around at 7 per cent. That is unusual. In the last 15 years, inflation never .....more

US Presidential
Polls and India

By Kedar Nath Pandey
The emperor has been caught without clothes. The Americans have become a target of jokes and ridicule and a `poetic justice' has.......more

A thrust to India's
east Asia policy

By N.B. Menon
If you followed the proverbial crow as it flew eastwards it would take you about three hours to reach Laos from Delhi, and a little ....more

EDITORIAL

NUCLEAR AIR COMMAND

Any futuristic war is going to have dominant role for the Indian Air Force. It is also certain that nuclear weapons could be used. While India has openly proclaimed that it would follow the theme of 'No-first-nuclear-strike', its main adversary openly advocates nuclear strikes against India to safeguard her national integrity. It however qualifies it with the rider that when conventional means fail, first nuclear strikes by Pakistan are inevitable. Given the various perceptions of successive Pak rulers, it is confirmed that Pak is in no position to win any conventional war against mighty Indian armed forces. It stands amply manifested during all the three regular Indo-Pak wars in 1947-48, 1965 and 1971. Massive debacle and the resultant humiliation suffered by Pakistan in the 1999 Kargil war makes it abundantly clear that Pakistan is in no position to win any conventional war with India in future as well. It is attributed to three factors. First, Pakistan lacks depth. Second, it has only one major port i.e. Karachi which if blocked chokes all supplies to Pakistan. Karachi incidentally is only 180 nautical miles from our major air base at Jamnagar as the crow flies. In the 1971 war Karachi was blasted, including its oil refinery, from this base. It has subsequently developed another port but that is that. India contrarily has 8000 km long maritime boundry with ports galore. Pakistan as on date has no aircraft carrier. Third, like the loss of eastern wing in the 1971 war, the loss of Sindh province in any conventional war is a foregone conclusion. These factors motivate Pakistan to go for the nuclear first strike to inflict as much damage and disable its war fighting capabilities to a very large extent.

It is precisely in the above context that Pakistan has already put in place Nuclear Command Authority besides establishing Strategic Force Command. NCA is aimed at creating command and control of nuclear weapons and missile systems. It is responsible for policy formulation, employment and development control over all strategic nuclear forces and strategic organisations. NAC will guard major organisations like Khan Research Labs, National Development Complex and Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission. The Strategic Force Command (SFC) led by serving General will be responsible for deployment of strategic missiles like Ghauri, Shaheen I and II. This inter-alia means that Pakistan has not only complied with international nuclear and strategic arms conventions but also put in place proper command and control of such deadly weapons and delivery systems.

It is unfortunate that so far nothing of the sort has happened in our country. It is the usual ritual of one committee over another, sub-committees and all that paraphernalia. National Security Council is not functional in as much as no meeting has been held ever since its constitution. Mr Subramaniam who headed the Kargil enquiry committee has made pointed reference about the non-functional NSC. Subramaniam report on Kargil fiasco has made certain recommendations. In its wake, Group of Ministers (GoM) were constituted to study the report and give its recommendations. This group is headed by Home Minister L K Advani. The GoM in turn constituted four Task Forces namely on Internal Security, on Border Management, on Intelligence and Higher Defence Management. The last Task Force was headed by Arun Singh. The comprehensive recommendations of these four Task Forces are already with the Government. Some authentic inputs are available from the Task Force on Higher Defence Management. The Indian Air Force in its presentation to the Task Force titled 'Vision 2020' has recommended that India should move to a position of deterrence against Pakistan and China not only in the nuclear arena but also conventional front. This strategy is a step forward from the existing one which provides deterrence for Pakistan and dissuance from the northern neighbour that is China. Accordingly, IAF advocates that all strategic resources of the country should be placed under the Nuclear Air Command. This role can only be performed by the IAF in as much as it possesses delivery platforms (strategic reach aircrafts). It may be mentioned that Mirage-2000 and SU-30 aircrafts can carry nuclear warheads. The Prithvi missile although nuclear capable has a very limited range of 150 km and to that extent it is not a good deterrent even for Pakistan and hardly any deterrent for China. It therefore asks the Government to not only operationalise Agni Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile but also it should come under the proposed Nuclear Air Command. In addition, IAF also feels that Nuclear Air Command should have under its control surveillance resources both in space and otherwise to provide intelligence inputs on continuous basis. This aspect in fact asks for acquisition of AWACS system for round the clock surveillance over a large radius besides spy satellites for authentic inputs about the enemy. It may be mentioned that Russian AWACS lack sophistication. Government had approached Israel for having two AWACS but there is no movement forward thus far. Israel earlier negotiated similar ideal for supply of 4 AWACS to China but cancelled the same under pressure from USA. India has once again asked Israel if it could supply two AWACS without any inhibitions. Meantime, Pakistan is reported to have engotiated purchase of AWACS from Brazil which have wider radius of operations than the Russian one or the one being made by Israel. Some years back there was also a proposal to convert one of the heavy transport aircraft like IL-76 and fit in with all the ingredients of AWACS. The Vision 2020 document also envisages 55 combat air squadrons from the existing 39 squadrons including ailing MIGs some of which are being revamped to meet requirements of the decade. In reality only 10 Mirages are being added while phased induction of another 150 SU-30 during the decade is negotiated with Russia . This obviously is lop-sided treatment to national security. It is time that our rulers get unto brass tacks to put National Security Council and Nuclear Air Command in place. It is all the more urgent because Pakistan has already established Nuclear Command Authority and Strategic Force Command.

MATCH FIXERS

Ir was the CBI report first that went in for elaborate enquiry about the match fixing. It gave specific recommendations by identifying various contacts, bookies and the players that fixed the matches. Nothing happened in as much as Sports Minister passed on the CBI report to Ministry of Law and Home Affairs. Home Ministry involvement became necessary because underworld dons were also the conduits and motivators for match fixers. Incidentally, these dons are the same who are involved in Bombay chain blasts of March 12, 1993. So besides the match fixing national security angle cannot be left aside. God alone knows what is the status vis-a-vis action by Sports Minister. It has been suggested that at least two match fixers namely Azharuddin and Ajay Sharma can be booked under Anti-Corruption act as both are public servants, the former is State Bank officer while the latter employed by Ware Housing Corporation of India. So far no FIR is registered. Income Tax department can also initiated action. Nothing has happened. Now it is the turn of BCCI to play hide and seek game. It is vertically and horizontally divided over punishing the fixers at its level. So conveniently it passes the buck to Disciplinary Committee of the BCCI. Meanwhile, match-fixers remain scot free. The latest is that BCCI has found faults with CBI report itself. Ultimately it is just one of those things that happen in India only.

Today is World AIDS Day
AIDS : Alarm bells are ringing

By Aarti

AIDS : men make the difference'', the theme of this year's World AIDS Day, (observed globally on 1st December) is of special significance to India since there are more infected males than females. According to UNAIDS, about 33.6 million people are living with HIV infection besides nearly 16,000 people getting infected every day. Experiencing rapid and extensive spread of HIV infection in the world after South Africa, a staggering 3.7 million people in the country are already HIV positive, with Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra contributing to considerable number of AIDS cases. It is appalling that most people, even among the educated, are ignorant about HIV (human immuno deficiency virus) believed to cause AIDS, (acquired immune deficiency syndrome) that has facilitated its spread considerably. During the last ten years there has been a progressive rise in the prevalence of infection in all groups and more than 50 per cent of them are women and children. Every year approximately 30,000 deliveries in the country occur among seropositive women and between 6000 to 8000 infants are perinatally infected with HIV. Should this trend continue, AIDS affected Indians would touch 25 million in the next five or six years and cross 30 million by the year 2010.

The epidemic is fuelled in a majority of cases due to sexually transmitted diseases, both on account of heterosexual and homesexual practices, from infected blood and blood products, sharing of syringes needles amongst intravenous drug users and prenatal transmission. Rapidly spreading from urban to rural areas, surveys have shown that 5 to 10 percent of some truck drivers in the country are infected with HIV. Notably in Mumbai, HIV prevalence has reprotedly reached about 50 percent in sex workers, 36 percent among patients suffering from STD (sexually transmitted diseases) and 2.5 percent in women attending antenatal clinics. Sharing of needles while using intravenous drugs in the North Eastern States like Manipur has left 55 percent of such users with HIV-infection. A recent workshop organised in Ahmedabad by the Gujarat AIDS' Awareness Programme (GAP) along with UNICEF, has mooted identification of sex workers (a high risk category) and legalisation of their trade to help in curbing the growing menace of AIDS/HIV.

Various studies indicate that the relationship between HIV and other social ills afflicting developing countries, such as poverty, STD and particularly tuberculosis is quite complex. TB is the presenting symptom of AIDS in over 60 percent of AIDS cases. In Mumbai alone, 10 percent of the patients suffering from TB have been diagnosed HIV positive. The cause for concern is that India accounts for a quarter of casualty triggered by TB (about 14 million suffer from active TB and an estimated 1 to 2 million new cases are added annually). In the future this could hasten the spread of AIDS because the latter predisposes the victims to TB and the incidence of TB goes up with the spread of AIDS.

Although modern medicine is yet to produce a cure for the virus, according to scientists at the National Institute of Health, Bethesda, USA, there is a good chance to transform HIV from an inexorably fatal condition to a chronic, manageable viral infection especially in the case of children born to HIV positive women, thus actually preventing many new HIV infections. Doctors are reportedly looking at traditional systems of medicine the world over for a cure for HIV; particularly after traditional medicine in East and Southern Africa have shown positive results. Despite the availability of some anti-retroviral drugs, their prohibitive cost makes them unaffordable for many.

The National AIDS Control Organisation (NACO), set up in 1982, with an overall objective to slow the spread of HIV in the country and reduce the future morbidity/mortality has among others established 154 zonal blood testing centres besides augmenting STD/HIV/AIDS care facilities. But the stark reality is that for every case that is diagnosed, reported, tens go undetected. Mainly, ignorance has been speeding the death count. Last year about 3.1 lakh people had died in the country of AIDS.

With the UNAIDS global report released recently on HIV/AIDS highlighting that HIV is highly stigmatised in India, much needs to be done at a macro level. That many of our primary health centres and District hospitals are in a shambles, making the right to health care almost non-existent in several places coupled with a shortge of doctors, medicines and diagnostic facilities compounding the situation, the scenario is quite alarming. Many hospitals also turn away AIDS patients and if admitted they are treated without basic dignity and honour with doctors and nurses refusing to administer medicines. As HIV/AIDS is excluded under health care policies because of difficulties in measuring exposure, its consequences in financial terms, such patients are left to fend for themselves.

Besides various government plans to combat the AIDS, condom vending machines are being installed by the Union Health Ministry in all States at targeted places to enable even truck drivers to make use of them as HIV/AIDS preventive measure. To prevent mother to child transmission of HIV, the Centre is to provide anti-retroviral drugs to new borns and their mothers falling under high risk or affected by HIV/AIDS. During the Ninth Five Year period, apart from increasing the number of HIV testing centres, improving mass awareness and ensuring the safety of blood/blood products, emphasis to improve hospital infection control and waste management to accidental infection is to be given prominence. As in the US, innovative communication strategies aimed at bringing the truth of the dreaded virus forcefully out in the open (viz. ''prevention is the only way to combat it'') can help decreased seropositivity levels significantly. Sex education in schools can facilitate in arresting the spread of AIDS. Professional counselling and AIDS helpline services available in some cities need to be expanded to rural areas.

The African experience having shown in the wake of AIDS epidemic the enormous economic suffering, besides significantly plummeting the average life expectancy; there can be no room for any complacency. Above all, information on AIDS must be widely disseminated in languages that people can understand and without causing panic alert vulnerbale segments to prevent AIDS. It needs to be reiterated that AIDS is not a disease and it doesn't kill. Basically, AIDS is a syndrome which fundamentally compromises the human immune systems against germs thus leaving the body defenceless and vulnerable to none infection after another until the body dies. Medical attention is required for secondary infection because an HIV positive person is more prone to infections due to a weak immune system. The main thrust of all campaigns against AIDS should be how to keep the epidemic at bay. Besides targetting youth, local bodies at the community level must be actively involved to create mass awareness. With a poor level of preparedness to tackle the AIDS pandemic, even as the virus is stealthily invading every strata of society to affect at least one person in each individual's social circle within a period of 10 years, surely the alarm bells are ringing.

The taming of inflation

By M.N. Minocha

It is almost six months now since inflation has been rising and is hovering around at 7 per cent. That is unusual. In the last 15 years, inflation never moved below 5 per cent except in 1997. The housewife and the government would like inflation to continue at the present rate though even that means a rise in prices.

Inflation is a dreaded disease. Most countries take extra care to see that inflation does not go beyond 3 per cent. A higher level can disturb the whole economic system and cause aberrations which become difficult to correct later. For instance, with prices galloping every month, the consumer is tempted to spend more and save less. Interest rate is put up and causes investment to shrink. More than that, the external value of the currency is eroded and imports become costly and exports uncertain. The balance of trade and consequently the balance of payments is thrown out of gear. When central banks make the adjustment in the exchange rate, external debt becomes more difficult to service. All this rebounds and finally pulls the rate of growth of GDP down and makes its distribution in the society more unequal.

It is most difficult to hold prices absolutely stable. And if a choice has to be made it is preferable to have a little inflation than a prolonged depression. Most countries have come to accept 3 per cent as a desirable inflation ceiling. This ceiling was put by the EU when its members came to form the European Union for the purpose of single currency. Inflation became the top item on the agenda and every country managed its affairs in a manner as to conform to the norm. That ceiling is informally accepted as the best policy option. The US has managed inflation within that ceiling for quite some time now. That is also true of Europe. The developing countries too have been inspired by this objective and most of the countries in Asia have adopted it as a policy target. Thailand, Malaysia or South Korea have been able to tame inflation and bring it down to less than 2 per cent. In China, inflation is negative and consequently has suffered a fall in the rate of growth.

We did not pay much attention to inflation except when it crossed double digit. No wonder the average rate of inflation varied between 6 and 7 per cent in the last 30 years. But there were years in which inflation flared up and crossed 20 per cent, inviting public agitation and desperate government measures. These were precisely the years in which agricultural production dropped because the monsoon did not behave. We still depend quite a lot on the monsoon and carefully watch its likely course much ahead of time. But the monsoon has its own whims and it is not until it is finally over that its impact can be ascertained. By that time it is usually too late. Prices by then would have already jumped up.

Prices rise because, with the prevailing demand, supplies are not adequate. Had supply been elastic prices would not have risen. To an extent, the government did succeed in imparting some elasticity of supply of principal cereals viz. rice and wheat. This is done through the buffer stock with the Food Corporation of India. However, the FCI is operated more as stock than as a buffer. If it indulges in timely market operations prices can be held within a certain range. When prices cross the upper limit stocks have to be released and when they cross the lower limit stocks have to be acquired. The operation, at present, is mainly confined to building enough stock to support public distribution. It is not merely rice and wheat that hold the key to price stability. There are a number of other products the supplies of which can fall short of demand and cause inflation. This does not normally happen with industrial products since supplies can be increased in response to demand. Industry always has a little surplus capacity to fall back on and if it does not exist, it can create that capacity through additional investment. The increase in prices in industry generally comes from an increase in costs. And, costs rise because wages rise due to inflated prices of agricultural commodities. The secret of holding down inflation is really holding down agricultural prices.

That is possible even when supply of agricultural commodities, in the short term, is inelastic. They can be imported. That is what government generally did. But imports were often too late and arrived when domestic supplies had already normalized. To ensure that supplies arrive precisely when domestic shortfalls occur, imports have to be on the OGL. Private trade anticipate the market much better and will import at the right time to see that prices do not rise. Oilseeds production is currently down 20 per cent. But prices of edible oils are not rising because imports have come in to make good the domestic shortfall. What is more, international prices have dropped and this is reflected in the domestic market as well.

It is quite possible to hold inflation down to 3 per cent if only imports of major consumer goods can be freely allowed. That is not going to upset domestic production since imports are subject to tariffs. That tariff can be carefully regulated to give reasonable protection to domestic production. If international prices rise, tariffs can be scaled down to keep the relation between domestic prices and landed cost of imported commodities. There will also be cases when international prices may be too high and domestic production too little. This is so, for instance, in the case of crude oil. A certain element of inflation then becomes inevitable. All countries are exposed to this inflation and the only way to overcome it is to find substitute. Crude oil can be substituted by natural gas. That is exactly what US industry is doing at present.

It is not difficult to hold inflation down. All that is necessary is to keep imports on tap. Any excessive rise in prices caused by domestic shortfall in production would be quickly corrected by increasing imports. Inflation can be tamed by keeping the doors for import open all the time for all goods. INAV

A thrust to India's east Asia policy

By N.B. Menon

If you followed the proverbial crow as it flew eastwards it would take you about three hours to reach Laos from Delhi, and a little longer on the return journey depending on the wind conditions. That is about the same time as you would require to fly from Delhi to Cochin in the wake of the friendly crow. But actual travel time from Delhi to Laos can take anything from ten hours upwards, depending on the flight connections that one can make. The difference in the two travel timings is an indicator of the state of India's relations with that part of the world. Close in some ways and yet not easy to access.

The political compulsions of the Cold War era in the region and China's engagement with several countries here had had its impact on India's bilateral ties with the South-East Asian nations. It was region with age-old ties of trade and commerce with India, and it provided a direction to the spread of early Indian empires. It is the cultural dimension, especially linked to Buddhism, that is an eloquent reminder of the ancient ties that have existed between India and the kingdoms towards its east.

In the last decade, New Delhi has initiated several moves to reengage the South-East Asian region. The "Look East" policy devised by the P.V. Narasimha Rao Government was given a major thrust by the economic liberalisation programme that had been put in place in India. It was an initiative that found a ready response from countries like Singapore and Thailand, which were looking for investment opportunities. If the region to the west, to the Persian Gulf, is considered India's extended neighbourhood, drawing from the ancient ties, then the South-East Asian region forms the extended neighbourhood on the other side. Though there has been an opening up in a variety of sectors with the South-East Asian countries, the delay in the second generation of economic reforms in India did affect the enthusiasm of the countries of that region.

However, the Asian monetary crisis and India's ability to withstand its impact as well as the economic sanctions imposed by the developed countries in response to India's nuclear tests in 1998 demonstrated the country's economic resilience. It has served to revive interest in the Indian economy in that region, with Singapore and Thailand the two price movers in this regard.

Though the Look East policy lost its high profile thrust of the mid-1990s, and has moved in fits and starts, the engagement with the countries towards the east has been maintained in several forms, both on a bilateral basis and also through multilateral contacts. The launch of BIMST-EC, the grouping of Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Thailand with observer status for Nepal was one means of greater cooperation between the littoral state around the Bay of Bengal. But the first half of November has seen a great deal of activity towards the eastern side, involving Singapore, Myanmar and the Indochina region.

President K.R. Narayanan paid a highly successful state visit to Singapore from November 9 to 13, the first by an Indian President in over three decades. The visit reinforced the friendly ties between the two countries. Singapore has to look outwards for greater economic growth and with the huge Indian economy it is its obvious destination. Not surprisingly, Singapore has shown keen interest in expanding ties in all spheres with India.

About the same time the Mekong-Ganga cooperation was being finalised in Vientiane for working in the cultural and tourism fields. Both areas help in greater people-to-people contact, which in turn makes a greater contribution to increased trade and flow of investment. Myanmar is a key country in the move to the east, for it was Myanmar's self-isolation that cut off the routes in that direction. With the trans-Asian highway passing through Myanmar it would provide the transport link in that region.

The recent visit to India of the all powerful General Maung Aye, who is the vice-chairman of the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), with a high powered Myanmarese delegation, is part of a more substantive engagement with Myanmar. The delegation comprised representatives from the ministries of External Affairs, Industry, Finance, Science and Technology, and Power and Commerce.

After a period of chill in their relations, New Delhi was forced into beginning a careful engagement with the military leaders of Myanmar in the early 1990s for strategic reasons. The long border on the east and the disturbed conditions in the North-East made it necessary to maintain contacts with the military regime on the other side of the border. This careful engagement has enabled joint efforts in tackling problems like drug trafficking and the movement of insurgents.

The building of an all weather road across the border from Moreh in Manipur to Tamu on the other side would help development on both sides of the border.

Incidentially, before the leaders of the Myanmarese delegation began the official part of the visit to India, they paid a visit to the Mahabodhi temple in Bodh Gaya. Buddhism is a common strand that weaves through the majority of countries of this region. Buddhism spread to the world from India, to Sri Lanka, Thailand, Myanmar, Cambodia and Vietnam. The Indian Government has sought to build the Buddhist tourist circuit within the country to attract Buddhists from distant lands. The number of Buddhists in the world is estimated at well over 300 million, for Buddhism adapted well to other cultures, and has developed distinctive forms in different countries through assimilation from the local cultures.

At the ASEAN summit in Manila last year, the foreign ministers of Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Thailand had discussed plans for cooperation in the tourism sector within this region. The need to catch up to similar levels of economic prosperity gave an impetus to the move to draw on their common cultural base to build developmental projects. Later, the Vietnamese also expressed their interest in joining the tourism scheme.

During the BIMST-EC meeting in Delhi in July 2000, the Thai Foreign Ministry proposed the establishment of a cooperative programme between the countries of the two civilisational rivers, the Ganga and the Mekong rivers. The idea found general acceptance and a further discussion was held in Bangkok between the foreign ministers of Cambodia, India, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam. They agreed that the Mekong-Ganga linkage would focus on cooperation in tourism, culture, and education as well as in developing the transport connections between the member countries.

Cooperation in these sectors could later form the basis of greater trade and investment flows within the region. The Vientiane Declaration on the Mekong-Ganga cooperation was put together at the inaugural meeting of the participating countries in Vientiane on November 10, 2000. In the past few years Indians have joined the frequent flyers group and have become quite adventurous regarding their destinations. At the same time a sustained thrust to India's look east policy will help to revive the relationships in that region. INAV