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EDITORIAL Prime Minister Vajpayee assures the nation that the Government is prepared to meet any challenge in Jammu & Kashmir. This is exactly what the Government has been saying with all successive Prime Ministers starting from VP Singh parrotting the same theme. But the challenge has not been met adequately all these years. We have been invariably on the defensive which is bad enough. A defensive nation brings in its wake multiple evils like political, financial... .more Crude oil prices continue to shoot up by the day. It was readily available in any quantity for $10 per barrel in the beginning of last year. It has touched $32 and there is no sign of its slide down. This is quite a grim situation for many countries notably those who are fully dependent on crude imports. For India it is worrisome situation on at least three counts. First, India has to import seventy percent of its requirements. Indigenous production has not kept pace with demand. So imports are indispensable . .....more |
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Breakdown of cease-fire By M.L. Kotru Pakistan's crisis of
credibility Vajpayee, not Advani,
handles Kashmir No rest for the Kashmiri
psyche '............... |
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EDITORIAL Prime Minister Vajpayee assures the nation that the Government is prepared to meet any challenge in Jammu & Kashmir. This is exactly what the Government has been saying with all successive Prime Ministers starting from VP Singh parrotting the same theme. But the challenge has not been met adequately all these years. We have been invariably on the defensive which is bad enough. A defensive nation brings in its wake multiple evils like political, financial and social instability. In the process it also sets in motion despair and resultant demoralisation which includes our forces. For instance when suicide squads started targetting army and para-military headquarters in Valley, the message went round that the force that cannot defend itself surely offers no security to the hapless citizens. Consequently people tend to look towards the other side howsoever hesitantly. There are far too many discrepencies and ambiguities in the entire process when each remedy fails to have the desired impact. All this non-sense has gone on without any respite. The latest ambush of BSF vehicles took a heavy toll of valiant jawans near Chenani even as the memory of Amarnath and other massacres is difficult to erase. Somehow unity of purpose and single-minded pursuit remains as much evasive today as it was in 1989-90 when first salvo of insurgency was fired by the JKLF. While it may not be in good taste to draw the comparison between the 1989-90 situation with the one prevailing now, there is no denying the fact that State and its hapless people continue to suffer endless indignities, humiliations, sufferings and feel totally insecure. It is regrettable that process has not been reversed when Government calls the shots and militants are on the run. The second visible lacunae from which Government suffers relates to persistence in experimental approach. Instead of deriving correct lessons from the earlier experiments of the decade, it continues with fresh ones. The latest one too has proved to be abortive in as much as talks begun with much fanfare arousing the hopes and expectations of the people collapsed like the proverbial house of cards. Yet the talk of talks is on. Yes. Let it go on. But for heavens sake segregate talks from ongoing counter-insurgency operations. Tackling menace of terrorism is one thing. Going for parleys quite another. Just as Prime Minister in his Independence Day message to the nation is forthright in telling that talks with Pakistan cannot go on side by side with Pak-sponsored terrorism, it is just as well that all types of talks be put on similar pedastal. The nation can ill-afford one fiasco after another. It weakens the will of the people and brings the Government bad name by dwarfing it in public esteem. Advani says Government is still open to talks. Prime Minister repeats the same thing and mentions division amongst militant ranks. Defence Minister Fernandes is ever on the prowl for finding old and new faces to engage them in talks. Yes. Let it go on; But for heavens sake in the process don't treat the people and the valiant soldiers as sacrifical goats. Be it a scribe, a professional or a soldier or for that matter any ordinary citizen. None can be allowed to die unsung so unceremoniously. This Government must treat every life precious enough to be protected and those who seek to destroy it must be conveyed the message that enough is enough and henceforth it is going to be the other way round. Easier said than done. Such message need not be relayed. It must travel on its own to reach the enemy camp to put them on the run. And for heavens sake stop blaming Pakistan and fundamentalist forces bred by it to cause annexation of J&K and balkanisation of India. Also stop reeling out figures asto how many training centres exist in Pakistan and so many ultras await infiltration because in any case you are not going to attack these camps. So its output naturally crosses over to spread Jehad. It would be more expedient to adopt rational approach in all the directions simultaneously. It is based on the premise that India is not going to attack Pakistan nor cross the LoC to bombard training camps. Then the next best thing to do is to go on the offensive because in Churchil's words 'best defence is offence'. Offence does not necessarily imply crossing the border. It is all happening this side of it. First, let the military job remain in the hands of those who are seasoned and adept in their profession with least political interference. Second, back the security forces to the hilt politically and otherwise. Third, spread intelligence network so that there is authentic penetration in the enemy camps. Fourth, use innovative means of offensive to surprise the enemy like the encirclement of 10 mercenaries entrenched at heights and their total elimination. Use of choppers is an option that needs to be exercised extensively, particularly in inaccessible places. Fifth, VDCs need to be strengthened in terms of weapon systems besides opening up other Vulnerable areas to their reckonable presence. Well equipped VDCs offer strongest deterrent to militants to attack soft targets. Infiltration attempts have to be foiled on the border itself even as elimination process of those already this side should be accelerated. And quietly but surely you begin to do Pakistan what it has done to you in J&K all these years so that Pak rulers are compelled to devote more time and effort to internal turmoil and less time for whatever it is doing in J&K. Proactive is a comprehensive term; it has to be interpreted strictly in terms of ground realities so that all vital initiative are wrested from the enemy. Lastly but just no less important for success is the theme, ''Enemy's enemy is your friend''. Better start looking for this brand of 'friend'. Crude oil prices continue to shoot up by the day. It was readily available in any quantity for $10 per barrel in the beginning of last year. It has touched $32 and there is no sign of its slide down. This is quite a grim situation for many countries notably those who are fully dependent on crude imports. For India it is worrisome situation on at least three counts. First, India has to import seventy percent of its requirements. Indigenous production has not kept pace with demand. So imports are indispensable to keep the nation moving. Last year petroleum product imports touched 12 billion dollars. With crude prices continue to reach dizzy heights, this bill is slated to touch 25 billion dollars, a proposition that India can ill afford. Second, there is already a wide trade deficit gap. Imports continue to grow at faster rate than exports. This gap can best be reduced only through massive export effort. India's forex reserves have already slided down from over $38 billion to less than 36 billion during the last three months. This cushion needs to be kept intact to cater to many exigencies. With plenty of foodstocks rotting in godowns, surplusses can be exported to earn badly needed foreign exchange. Third, with crude oil prices shooting up by the day, oil pool deficit could touch Rs 15000 crore during the current fiscal. This in turn is tantamount to Central heavy subsidy. The alternative is to hike petroleum prices which may be politically inexpedient but economically inevitable. Such hike would be inflationary in that there would be chain reaction. India should thus go full throttle on exploration of new oil fields to reduce dependence on imports. Perhaps, another attempt at Sruinsar in Jammu is worth. |
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Breakdown
of cease-fire By M.L. Kotru The abrupt end to what had looked like a peace initiative in Kashmir with the Hizbul Mujahideen and its Pakistani mentors crying foul even before play had commenced and deserting the field, did indeed cause much disappointment and even despair. And nowhere was the sense of despair more pronounced than in the Kashmir valley. The feeling of having been let down in the valley is easy to understand. For it's the valley more than anyone else that has been at the receiving end in the decade old bloodshed imposed on them in the name of their liberation. The breakdown of the cease-fire and the consequent resumption of brutal transgressions by the Pak-based terrorists in Jammu and Kashmir must be seen in the context of the sense of euphoria and relief felt throughout the valley after the Hizb announced its cease-fire on July 22 and its quick acceptance by New Delhi. The fundamental reality that Kashmiris yearn for peace after long years of armed confrontation between the terrorists and the Security Forces stood in stark relief. Equally stark must have been the realisation at the end of the day among Kashmiris about two destroyed the peace initiative and who has developed a vested interest in the continuing bloodshed. It needs no reiteration that New Delhi's is not the hand behind the insurgency in Jammu and Kashmir. This is known to every Kashmiri. They may be aware and even approving of the causes that initially led many Kashmiri youth to armed rebellion but in the intervening 11 years they have clearly realised that their battle cry of justice and fairplay has been hijacked by Islamabad to pursue its barely concealed objective in Jammu and Kashmir. And if the assumption that the Kashmiris know who has developed a vested interest in the continuing insurgency is right it becomes incumbent on India to convey to them its commitment to a solution compatible with their own honour and dignity and the overall national interest. In this context if the Prime Vajpayee felt the need to undertake his bus journey to Lahore to impress that peace was desirable; it becomes even more important for him to assume that the presumption is far more relevant in resolving the crisis in Jammu and Kashmir. The Prime Minister, one is happy to note, has repeated his offer to enter into negotiations with any Kashmiri terrorist group on the principles of 'Insaniyat'. Equally hopeful signals have been coming from Srinagar and elsewhere suggesting a rethink on the question of resumption of negotiations among the Hizb and some others. The vehemence with which the Hizb has condemned the Hurriyat Conference leadership for its negative attitude towards the aborted talks going to the extent of daring its leadership to send their wards to the battlefront only underscores the realization in this section of the militant movement that extremist activities have left the Kashmiris an exhausted lot and that peaceful negotiations need to be given a chance. A lot can be said for and against the tactics and tactical mistakes made by either side before the talks with the Hizbul Mujahideen broke down. The Indians for instance were only too eager to grasp the opportunity offered by the Hizbul, their eagerness accentuated by the desire of the Prime Minister's advisers to score a few brownie points before his meeting with President Clinton in Washington next month. True, the Pakistani military rulers too were under pressure and therefore keen to appear to be reasonable. But the truth is that not much groundwork had been done to make the peace initiative purposeful. Frankly the initiative did not represent a change of heart, as it were, among the Pakistani establishment, represented by the military, mullahs and the hardcore bureaucracy. Musharraf was taking a gamble and hoping, in the process, to convince the US that he was listening. The Indian alacrity in accepting the cease-fire and to talk unconditionally was also in part an exercise in establishing in the US a sense of appreciation for New Delhi's ''reasonableness''. But the Pakistanis had their own agenda to pursue and as a consequence not permit the Hizb-New Delhi talks to end on a happier note. And what followed on the ground after the cease-fire was called off leaves little room for speculation about Pakistan's intentions. Ironically, both Islamabad and New Delhi interpreted the breakdown of the initiative to suit their respective lines. Islamabad tom-tommed the fact that the initiative established that the militancy in Kashmir was an entirely internal problem for the Indians, the Hizb having been accepted by New Delhi as a genuine Kashmiri outfit. The Indians countered this with the argument that the talks were called off by Salahuddin from Islamabad and ran against the wishes of the local commanders headed by Majid Dar. Salahuddin, said the Indians, was doing Pakistan's bidding. The terrorist carnage in the State during and after the collapse of cease-fire does to a large extent confirm Pakistani intention to keep up the pressure in the valley and adjoining areas. This was made clear by Gen Musharraf in his statement on Pakistan's independence day. Prime Minister Vajpayee returned the compliment from the ramparts of the Red Fort the next day, if only to keep the record straight. But the truth is that India and Pakistan will one day have to sit across the table to work out a solution to the problem. It's another matter that any solution that is arrived at will not materially change the ground reality in the State. It can only Centre around making marginal adjustments along the LoC. The Prime Minister has done well in keeping the door open for negotiations with indigenous militant groups. This path must be pursued even as our security concerns in the State are fully addressed. For starters, it is essential that every effort is made in the Valley to start a political dialogue with all sections of the public opinion in the State. The All Party Hurriyat Conference which had so far appeared to be the above-ground visible face of pro-Pakistan militant groups now stands discredited as much in the eyes of Kashmiri people as it does in the eyes of the Hizb. The latter has dared its leaders to commit their wards to the ranks of the Mujahideen if they genuinely believe in their ultimate victory. But not all the components of the Hurriyat are as rabid as Abdul Ghani Bhat. They must be engaged in any enlarged discussion involving all parties including National Conference, the PDP, representatives of the four lakh displaced Kashmiri Pandits, the Ladakh Buddhists and various other parties like BJP of Jammu province. In the weeks and months ahead international (US) pressure for an early solution to the Kashmir dispute is going to increase on both. New Delhi and Islamabad. Nearly bankrupt, lacking access to international credit and diplomatically isolated Pakistan will undoubtedly feel the pressure more. But, that does not mean that India can continue to ignore the pressure altogether. To that end there is need for a consistent and coherent Kashmir policy backed by a consensus evolved in consultation with the people of Jammu Kashmir. Fazal Haq Qureshi, who is currently faced with a show cause notice by the Hurriyat leadership for having joined the aborted cease-fire talks, says that the door has not been shut on such talks in the future. The Hizb, it is quite on the cards, may in the near future pick up the broken threads. Unlike other mercenary outfits it has a direct involvement in the well-being of the Kashmiri people and its concerns therefore are different. While one can only hope that the dialogue will with Hizb is restarted sooner than later, Atal Behari Vajpayee would do well to rein in the diehards not only in the saffron family but also from within his cabinet. The junior Minister for Civil Aviation, the Jammu BJP MP, Chaman Lal Gupta has been repeating many intemperate thoughts on the TV channels and claims always to be arguing on behalf of the Government. The Government can certainly find someone more articulate and less prone to get provoked. Vajpayee could well do without the help of a dyed-in-the wool saffronite to articulate the Government stand on Kashmir. If he feels that someone from Jammu and Kashmir and from within the Government should articulate the official viewpoint on Kashmir Umar Abdullah might make a better choice. The youthful Minister has a good TV presence and more importantly can make his points with a lot more conviction than the quarrelous Chaman Lal Gupta. |
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Vajpayee, not Advani,
handles Kashmir Kashmir is in the news, and has, in fact, attracted the attention of the international community, particularly the United States, once again. At the same time, India's two important personalities, Mr Atal Behari Vajpayee and Mr L K Advani, are also in the news. Despite the recent verdict by the high-profile Minister for Information Technology, Mr Pramod Mahajan, that Mr Vajpayee and Mr Advani are "twins" and made for each other, the Prime Minister and the Home Minister do not seem united on several issues, particularly the question of handling opposition leaders and groups in Kashmir. Differences of opinion have already emerged between the Prime Minister and the Home Minister. Outwardly, the two BJP stalwarts go about as a pair of devoted friends. But fact of the matter is that Mr L K Advani has already felt hurt by the manner in which Mr Atal Behari Vajpayee and his company in the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) declined to give him complete freedom to handle Jammu and Kashmir. The Prime Minister came across little opposition when he manipulated the unceremonious ouster of his Law Minister, Mr Ram Jethmalani, from the Council of Ministers. But Mr Vajpayee chose to be extra careful when the angry, displeased Home Minister threatened to quit the Government. Mr Vajpayee, fully aware of the tremendous clout of Mr Advani in the Sangh Parivar, personally contacted the latter, in an apparent bid to remove doubts and misgivings. Indeed, all this at a time when Mr Vajpayee had upstaged Mr Advani who had been virtually left alone to bear the brunt of attack by the Opposition within and outside Parliament and even the BJP and Shiv Sena members for the stepped-up violence in Jammu and Kashmir. Mr Vajpayee, through his sudden decision to fly to Srinagar with an all party delegation, was hailed by the MPs. At the same time, however, Congress MP, Mr Ghulam Nabi Azad, who also went with the Prime Minister to Srinagar, sharpened the focus on security lapses by demanding the Home Minister's resignation. Mr Vajpayee's impromptu press conference in Srinagar also paid dividends. He made it clear that nothing would be allowed to jeopardise the peace process, a statement that endeared him to the Opposition parties and the NDA (National Democratic Alliance) allies. Of course, there is some criticism within the BJP but it is very muted. Significantly, US President, Mr Bill Clinton's telephone call to Mr Vajpayee assuring him of all support has also contained the criticism within the ruling party. Alas, Mr Advani has not been so fortunate. On the first day, he was taken to task by BJP leaders like Mr Madan Lal Khurana and Shiv Sena MPs in Parliament. Mr Khurana, looking squarely at the Home Minister, attacked the Government for security lapses in Jammu and Kashmir. Mr Khurana said that instructions to the security forces to remain "silent" after the announcement of cease-fire declaration by the Hizbul Mujahideen had been taken advantage to by the militants. Shiv Sena MPs said that the militants were no longer scared of the Government. Mr Advani had to admit finally that there had been some security lapses. Sentiments of the agitated members of the Opposition and BJP and Shiv Sena were put into sharp focus on August 4 with a demand for Mr Advani's resignation by Mr Ghulam Nabi Azad. Significantly, Mr Azad did not hold Mr Vajpayee responsible for the happenings, namely, massacres in Jammu and Kashmir. More significant than this was the absence of Mr L K Advani in the delegation led by Mr Vajpayee to Srinagar. Many MPs and official quarters openly wondered why Mr Advani was not included in Mr Vajpayee's delegation to Srinagar, considering the magnitude of the massacres. Was it part of the Prime Minister's gameplan to send out a signal with regard to his intention to continue to be the man in-charge of Kashmir affairs ? Is our beloved Prime Minister sure that Kashmir is his cup of tea ? By sidelining Mr Advani will Mr Vajpayee, who is not physically very well, be able to effectively and efficiently deal with men and matters in Jammu and Kashmir ? Mr Vajpayee and company cannot, and should not, criticise Ms Sonia Gandhi for her statement charging the Government with failure to tighten security in Kashmir even after it was known that militant outfits annoyed with the Hizbul Mujahideen's unilateral cease-fire offer would try to derail the peace process. And Ms Sonia Gandhi cannot be faulted for her assessment that the J&K carnage was a replay of the post-Lahore peace process which was sought to be derailed through the Kargil intrusions. Significantly, some other Opposition parties in Parliament seemed to share this view and charged the Vajpayee Government with complacency. Though Mr L K Advani refuted the charge, it would seem when assessed against the sequence of recent events in the six different places in J&K, that the militants did strike at a time when the Government had lulled itself into the belief that anti-Hizbul outfits would react only after the commencement of the proposed dialogue. Pakistan will, of course, keep denying its involvement in any kind of anti-Indian activities and action in Jammu and Kashmir, and hence the statement of the military ruler, Gen. Parvez Musharraf, that Pakistan has nothing to do with the killings in J&K has caused no surprise in India. However, there will be many statement all over the world, like US President, Mr Clinton, who would naturally conclude that the recent round of murders had Pakistan's blessings. Such is Pakistan's track record in so far as instigating and abotting cross-border terrorism is concerned. Islamabad can never offter any credible rebuttal to Mr Vajpayee's charge that every peace initiative by India in the last several years has always been thwarted and neutralised by Pakistan. |
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No rest for the Kashmiri
psyche '............... Right from that day in late twenties when Sir John landed in Kashmir with his cook Qadir, Kashmir psyche has known no rest. From those days when he made inflammatory speeches in mosques and private rooms to the most recent chanting by the newest autocrat on Pak sky, Musharraf, Kashmiri Muslim has been under constant barrage of psychic (or is it psychedelic?) bullets, goading him to higher 'achievements', 'truer' realizations. Of course with pledges of 'moral and material' stilts. Qadir's call for 'jehad' culminated in the communal conflagration of 1931. And Pak autocrats' support and 'succor' have cost Kashmir a deathly dance for ten years. Of course, the Kashmiri is not to be held accountable for any of these deviations, for his noble psyche was-- has been--unsettled by these sinister callers! The intervening decades echoed those calls, in continuity, keeping their target group on tenterhooks till the overt participatory action by Pakistan, in the late eighties, finally precipitated a terrorist siege in which the valley with its populace was caught. The people decried communalism, even turned their Conference National, but kept celebrating a communal carnage as an opening for 'freedom'. That freedom is yet to be achieved, said Sheikh Abdullah, even through his first tenure as the chief of a free Kashmir. That freedom, informs Musharraf today, is the goal that Pakistan would 'help' Kashmiris to attain, at any cost. That freedom is communalism in its blackest shade, if you like plain-speak. It is said that politicians local, and nations foreign, have their own personal and national axes to grind in that fire. And they, therefore, would never let those ambers to cool. If the local ones spring bills and resolutions, autonomies and devolutions, to keep those confusions akindle, the foreigners add josh and jehad to feed those flames. You have other soothsayers, ready to cite scheme and strategy to support their contention that it is all the handiwork of super power(s). Sure, the supers have their power to consider, the foreigners have national ambitions while the locals have personal ends to cater to. And, all along, these contentions have served to absolve the common Kashmiri of every responsibility. But, does the Kashmiri have nothing to answer for the turbulent psyche or for the tremulous predispositions? Even as the general Kashmiri populace remained cool to the hot debate over autonomy the reason cited was that it was 'impossible to achieve' not that it was an 'undesirable ruse of a politician. In early nineties, when militancy was at its peak, the genteel ones would say 'let Lord do the best'. And, shew their innocence. Today, when the terrorists and the security forces are on an equal poise, that genteel voice cries out for being 'ground between the militants and the military'. In mid nineties, when Ikhwanis had the upper hand, that genteel folk-hood collected all credit saying that it was the peoples' disenchantment with militants that did it. And, or course, you have had a grim silence over every militant strike and a hot hartal on each lapse by the security forces. You still have them, and 'explain' the silences as a reflection of the terror while the hartal is excused as a democratic exercise. That is, when you have nothing to paint it is an 'army-excess' and work yourself too into an indignant rage! Pure souls speaking the truth or prevarications that promote agendas in carefully worked out designs? Is there a populace that is innately innocent or one intimately involved yet innovative enough to escape accountability on every occasion? Many people take it as evidence of a developed political consciousness. But don't things political imply an essential secular calling that would not be tethered to considerations of faith and crusading brethren? From Qadir's call to Sheikh's refusal to sever the religious umbilicus by giving up the headship of Auqaf, on to the resounding cries of jehad you have a regular religious pivot to Kashmir conundrum. More than a political consciousness it comes through as a religious polarization. Fit it and see how everything falls in place, from 13 July as the 'martyrs' day' to the obsequies at the martyrs' yard on to the raging disquiet. And, pray, who would you blame for that? Probably, the exploiting mullah who have systematically unsettled the noble psyches. Again, you would not be blaming the local clerics but the immigrant Iranian and Turanians- Syeds and their ilk- who are supposed to have thus done the Kashmiris in. Not today, not yesterday but over the past centuries- the centuries of dark medieval times when Kashmir was as tumultuous as it is now. Did one hear you wishing : if only those jarring discordance could be kept out? Well, well, you are on the right tract of doling out absolvements that have written restivity into this psyche in the first place. Go ahead, you are in the high league of the great obfuscators of all time! **** |
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