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EDITORIAL

Chameleonic clan

Chameleon is a small prehensile tailed long-tongued lizard with power of changing colour according to its surroundings and of living long without food. It also refers to variable and inconstant person. The slot fits present day politicians so accurately, particularly the Indian political clan that is so notorious for changing colour at random. They are quite adept at running with the hare and hunting with the hound. They know not any religion and thus try all types of oratory and manipulatory skills to hoodwink the gullible. They as well reject the cardinal adage of ‘What is sauce for goose cannot be sauce for gander’. For them everyone is saucy irrespective of the sex. They know the art of appeasing the feminity as much as striking instant rapport with the masculinity. For them transformation from urbanite to ruralite is just one of those things. They speak what is liked by a particular audience only to revert to some other theme in another place. Contemporary history is replete with umpteen examples to prove the point that our politicians indeed belong to the chameleon clan.

Late Indira Gandhi known for her charismatic dispensation can be quoted to elaborate the theme. While in Kashmir she declared herself as the ‘Daughter of Kashmir’ and sought their votes......more

Sanober and the Slave
A teenage fairy Tale

by Parvez Dewan

It’s easier to please the Lord

Afshi and Khair ull left the scene....more

Proposed interviews of college principals
Academic Pulse

By Prof. S. K. Bhalla

In an apparent bid to stem the rot, arrest the drift and restore a semblance of ......
more

Clamour on Towards Freedom Project

By Rakesh Sinha

The excruciating polemics over the historiography of the freedom struggle is not far ....
more

‘Durbar’ moves,
‘Durbaris’ unmoved!

Tales Of Travesty

By Dr Jitendra Singh

When "Durbar" moves, can the henchmen be far behind! But, when the militant ....
more

NPT review: Ignored issues

By Avinash Shirodkar
Although all nations of the world except four are today party to it, the Nuclear Non-....
.more

EDITORIAL

Chameleonic clan

Chameleon is a small prehensile tailed long-tongued lizard with power of changing colour according to its surroundings and of living long without food. It also refers to variable and inconstant person. The slot fits present day politicians so accurately, particularly the Indian political clan that is so notorious for changing colour at random. They are quite adept at running with the hare and hunting with the hound. They know not any religion and thus try all types of oratory and manipulatory skills to hoodwink the gullible. They as well reject the cardinal adage of ‘What is sauce for goose cannot be sauce for gander’. For them everyone is saucy irrespective of the sex. They know the art of appeasing the feminity as much as striking instant rapport with the masculinity. For them transformation from urbanite to ruralite is just one of those things. They speak what is liked by a particular audience only to revert to some other theme in another place. Contemporary history is replete with umpteen examples to prove the point that our politicians indeed belong to the chameleon clan.

Late Indira Gandhi known for her charismatic dispensation can be quoted to elaborate the theme. While in Kashmir she declared herself as the ‘Daughter of Kashmir’ and sought their votes since Nehru clan had its origin in Kashmir. While in Gujarat she declared herself to be the daughter-in-law of Gujarat as her husband Feroz Gandhi hailed from Gujarat. In Punjab she lost no time in adopting the ‘mother-in-law’ label to build instant rapport with Punjabis. Thank God she did not go to Rome during electioneering. And she ever remained a most amiable sister wherever other labels did not fit, "Pyari behno aur pyare bhaiyo...". And that fast track slogan of Gharibi Hatao. Take that Laloo who is so adept at changing colours. "Mein nahin makhan khayo rey", he declares in Lok Sabha so innocuously. Fodder is quite another thing. There is hell of lot of difference between milk and its ‘bye-products’. "Jharkand would be created over my dead body", declares Laloo. Now centre is threatened with dire consequence if the new State is not created within two months. And all this is retain the Patna throne for his wife Rabri Devi. He would agree to further bifurcation of Bihar only to retain power.

Look at the W. Bengal PCC(I) Chief Ghani Khan Chowdhary and others in his company who have revolted against the Central Congress leadership whose policies have failed to fetch them the Calcutta throne. Congressmen are not habituated to remain without power for over two decades in W. Bengal. Suddenly they find the messiah in Mamata Banerjee of the Trinamool Congress who alone can dislodge the two decade long leftist rule in W. Bengal. Just the other day they had used choicest invectives against Mamata and his breakway Trinamool Congress. They know so well that Mamata won't desert BJP because they share power at the Centre. The so-called politicians with secular credentials are out to join hands with BJP whom they repeatedly term as communal. But then this is the chameleonic clan who knows not any scruples. It is quite another thing asto who is more secular because definition of secularism remains highly politicised.

In Maharashtra Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) join hands with Congress Party to form Government. They say the arrangement is only at Maharashtra level and that at the Centre they remain totally inimical. God bless both Pawar and Sonia for this marriage of convenience. Principles are compromised. Sides are changed. Policies given the short shrift. J&K too earns such ignominy where ruling NC Party joins BJP Govt at the Centre while at the State level both BJP and NC are at daggers drawn. Nothing could be more chameleonic !

Sanober and the Slave
A teenage fairy Tale by Parvez Dewan

It’s easier to please the Lord

Afshi and Khair ull left the scene
Leaving the two alone;
So, Dania filled the Slave- boy with
Doubts he’d never known.

Dania (to Adnan): If you’d loved the Lord the way you pine for that girl
If you’d spent this time thinking of Him,
If instead of idols that no one will revere
If instead of love songs she does not want to hear
You had used your skills to write a hymn
At least the Lord would have been pleased with you.

It’s easier to please the Lord than lovers
With Him at least you know where you stand
With Him you know you’ll make it
If you obey the rules
But lovers are creatures no one can understand.

Such devotion for the Lord
And they’d have canonised you
Ranking you up there with Buonarroti and Leonardo;
Worshipping a girl, O Slave,
Has merely paganized you
If they remember you it would be for misplaced bravado.

You bared your heart to her
Was she impressed ?
Had you done this for the
Lord You would have been blessed.

Adnan: Conceded.
Your hypothesis need not be buttressed.
Yes, it’s easier to please the Lord than lovers
With Him at least you know where you stand
With Him you know you’ll make it
If you obey the rules
But lovers are creatures no one can understand.

Dania and : It’s easier to please the Lord than lovers
Adnan
With Him at least you know where you stand
With Him you know you’ll make it
If you obey the rules
But lovers are creatures no one can understand.
Applying for a Sabbatical
The first thing he needed to do
To make his dreams come true
Was to ask for time off from his job-
For a year, maybe two.
So, he went to the quarry to look
For his favourite slave-drivers
And found them counting the loot of the day-
In coins and tenners and fivers.

Adnan: There’s a time in everybody’s life
To review the years and take stock;
When you say to yourself that surely
There’s more to life than chopping rocks.
It is not as if I’m unhappy
It is not as if I’m sorry;
O Slave-drivers, it’s been a pleasure
To have sweated it out in your quarry.
But I need to ensure that life is not
Simply passing me by;
There are many things I still want to do-
So, I’ve come to say goodbye.

Slave-driver 1: Your problem is you get emotional
Slave-driver 2:
You should learn to be a little more practical.
Slave-driver 1:
Why must it be a parting of ways ?
Slave-driver 2:
Can’t it be a- a sabbatical?
Adnan:
Call the arrangement what you will
Right now I need to go;
I’ve got to get things out of my head
Through the only craft I know.
I’ll carve into the mountains
Massive images of my queen;
And make every rock in the Valley cry,
‘Sanober Ameen!’

Slave-driver 1: It’s nice to be in love, my boy
Slave-driver 2:
But how will you pay your bills ?
Slave-driver 1:
Why should you be starving when you
Slave-driver 2:
Could be raking it in with your skills?

Adnan: Between food for my body
And her nourishing my heart
I must but choose the latter
Or my soul will come apart.
If she leaves my mind for more than
Fifteen minutes at a time,
My cerebellum jumps out of my head
To ask her, ‘What’s my crime ?’

Slave-driver 1: If you need time off to think of her
Slave-driver 2:
Do it in alternate hours.
Slave-driver 1: We will give you the authority
Slave-driver 2:
We will give you all the powers.

Adnan: I can’t be fair to my day job
And also think of her;
Thinking of the one I love
Is a full time job, good sir.
And having said that, Adnan
Salaamed his bosses and left;
Lovers whom K.D. has driven mad
Are of prudence and logic bereft.

Slave-driver 2: There is no point in stopping him
The man’s absolutely fanatical;
Slave-driver 1:
But the stone chips will keep pouring in
Even while he’s on sabbatical.
While he buggers up the mountainside
With images of his love,
Send a slave to scour the ground for chips
When he’s hacking away above.

Slave-driver 2: If it takes an extended sabbatical
To get rid of that sore,
Grant it, so that he gets out of here
Away from the one I adore.

Proposed interviews of college principals
Academic Pulse

By Prof. S. K. Bhalla

In an apparent bid to stem the rot, arrest the drift and restore a semblance of Educational and Administrative order in the mismanaged Degree Colleges of our State the Department of Education proposes to hold interviews for the posts of College Principals in the immediate future. As per Higher Education Department No.: Edu-Coll-Apptt-Pr-II/95 dated 10.3.2000 a Proforma was required to be filled up by each eligible Selection Grade Lecturer and this was "treated as most urgent" exercise.

A close look at the 19-point Proforma wherein certain information/biodata is elicited raises many Academic and Administrative questions. Columns No. 1 to 13 shall be containing the usual information as per records available in the Colleges about an aspirant viz, Designation, Subject Taught, Place of Posting, Date of Birth, Date of Placement in the Selection Grade, Qualification, Administrative experience etc.

The crux of the matter lies in columns 14 to 18 in which information regarding membership of Organisation involved in research, promotion of cultural, literary activities and sports programmes, books published, number of other publications along with anyother achievement deserving consideration is sought. To the best of my knowledge and not wisdom columns 14 to 18 of the said Proforma hide less but convey a clear message that in future either the College Teachers shall have to "punish" or "perish" as in Educationally advanced countries of the West.

The brains that have devised this Proforma deserve the highest accolade by the microscopic minority of genuine College Teachers' but for a majority of folk the Proforma itself is one big headache as more stress has been laid on solid Academic achievements on the part of College Teachers' and loud mouthed noises accorded a backseat on the close scrutiny of columns 14 to 18.

It is a patent fact that even a majority of Senior Members of different Faculties have neither contributed anything meaningful during their long service career nor ever tried. For most of the College Teachers the work is restricted to class room teaching and maintaining proximity with the immediate Boss so that he or she is never transferred out of Jammu or Srinagar cities. Participation in literary, cultural and academic activities has been the forte of a few while the majority have gained notoriety for back biting, sycophancy and blowing the trumpet of seniority with all the elusive wisdom of ages and sages. That does not mean seniority is not to be respected but substantial academic achievements should be the sole criterion for selection in the spirit of columns 14 to 18 if we mean business. Only intellectually brilliant teachers can be good administrators in the long run because academic success is directly proportional to a better IQ. And only a man with a better IQ can lead and instruct. Those teachers who have contributed academically by writing sub-standard Guides/Refreshers and Notes of different subjects to misguide our youth for earning a few bucks ought to be discouraged because writing for commercial ends dilutes the sacred purpose of writing for our Society.

Moreover the present College Principals/Teachers indicted in the local media at various points of time throughout the length and breadth of our State because of their covert or overt involvement in financial scams which they could not refute for reasons best known to them ought not to be called for the interview. Such gentlemen can be easily located. Many present Principals also did not bother to send the APRs of college Teachers well in time to the Administrative Department in clear violation of Higher Education Department Circular No. Edu/HE/MIS/1/94 dated 22.2.1995 which reads at VII "The Principal of the College should make the performance appraisal at the level of individual faculty member, teacher and employee of the College and send the same for review/acceptance to the Competent authorities well within the time prescribed in order to maintain the sanctity and achieve the purpose and avoid undue delays that may cause hardships to the concerned employees". So the Govt is expected not to stress upon at all the availability of APRs if nothing adverse has been reported against any Selection Grade Lecturer after following the due process of law.

Moreover those Principals who themselves violated the spirit of the aforesaid Circular have no moral right to assess the performance of their fellow brethern, Frankly speaking they ought not to be invited for facing the interview.

Selecting people with political clout with worsen things. If all the information purveyed in the prescribed Proforma is fed in computers I am sure more than 80 percent of eligible aspirants in one single push of the button will be shown the door because machines at least are impartial if operated as per machine makers' instructions while expecting impartiality from puny humans is a tall order. This shall also make the work of PSC light already starved of funds. I know this shall not be acceptable to many because all eyes are set on revolving chairs in which humans love to loll much to the charge in of Almighty and detriment of the Educational Health of the Society.

It is still not clear as to what the authorities have in mind but it is hoped that the present Educational top - hierarchy of seasoned and pro-reforms personages will definitely ensure the sifting of the grain, 21st Century Principals of J&K Colleges have not to be mere mortals guided by their Section Officers but men who could lead academically and administratively. Visionary men and women with proven integrity should decorate the offices of Principals of Colleges.

One more unsolicited suggestion. After the selection/posting process is over all the Principals should undergo three months training in the field of College Administration and again be put on probation period of two years. They must under go self-assessment trial. If they do not deliver the goods the Department ought to give opportunity to the next in the panel. The medicine is bitter but no sugarcoating is required at this juncture when India is passing through a period of transition and at crossroads. There is no dearth of people criticising the Department for the proposed manner of conducting interviews because in many other Departments no such process of selection on the basis of interview is undertaken. We must remember that in colleges we deal with living files of flesh and blood requiring a far greater expertise and acumen and not the dusty files circulating in the corridors of power. The message is clear for the clear headed.

Clamour on Towards Freedom Project

By Rakesh Sinha

The excruciating polemics over the historiography of the freedom struggle is not far fetched. It is somewhat an extension of the dichotomy between the Marxist and liberal- nationalist historians in their interpretations of ancient and medieval Indian history. However, unlike them, the present debate is bound to create wider horizon of participation and interest since the history of the anti –colonial struggle is very much rooted in the nostalgia of the four main ideological or political groupings , the Congress , Communists, socialists and the RSS. The role of the masses is no less important in influencing the historiography of the country. In the Indian context it can be well argued that the sentiment and actual experiences of the Indian people perhaps forced the Marxist historians to make a retreat from their earlier position in evaluating historical personalities and their actions, like, Swami Vivekananda , Bal Gangadhar Tilak, Mahatma Gandhi, Subhash Chandra Bose, Jay Prakash Narayan, et. al. Thus the limitations of their ideological predisposition in turning and twisting modern Indian history led them to manipulate facts to suit their ideological presumptions. Exactly the same was done by the Marxist historians in the "Towards Freedom" a project under the Indian Council of Historical Research (ICHR) to compile the archival documents of freedom struggle from the year 1937 to 1947.

One volume covering the year 1943-44, hours of the Quit India movement, edited by Prof. P.S. Gupta, for instance, contains 150 selective documents on the Communist Party of India (CPI). The 120 pages report submitted to the colonial government by the CPI and the confidential correspondence between the party General secretary P.C. Joshi and the British Home department were suppressed. Thus documents were subjectively selected and edited to glorify its role! Significantly the CPI, which was banned between 1934 to 1942, was legalised at the eve of the August revolution. While the entire nation was facing severe British repression, and the British targeted all volunteer organisations, including the RSS , who refused to join the Civic Guard, ARP and army to help the British war efforts, the communists were free birds. The symbiotic relationship between the Indian communists and the British colonialism was both unjustifiable and unpardonable. And the historians of the Marxist ilk have been trying to cover up communist betrayal by stressing on peasants or trade union movements, or projecting it as only ‘genuine’ anti -Fascist. Madhu Limaye , a veteran socialist, wrote in 1951 ("CPI: Facts and Fictions") , "The communist activities throughout the August struggle of 1942-45 were directed towards active sabotage of people’s resistance to imperialist tyranny and opposition to struggle in every form , vilification of all patriots and progressives and lastly the support in the name of the right of self determination of all tendencies, which sought to disintegrate the country." Even the CPI (ML) Liberation , dared to concede the "historic blunder" by their ideological forefathers during the freedom movement. It seems that the Marxist historians have been working on behest of the Communist International, now non extinct, than the ICHR.

Absolute patronage had been provided to them by the Nehruvian state on the quid pro quo basis. The successive education ministers in the center from Narul Hasan to S.R. Bomai had been custodian of their interest and they, in turn, vouched Centrists and Congress politicians as ‘secular’ and ‘progressive.’ It underpinned them to establish an absolute control over all academic and research institutes. As Bipan Chandra wrote in 1992, "For the last 25 years or so historians of broad left orientation have had large presence in the leadership of the History Congress". Their ignominious silence to well documented book by Arun Shourie, "Eminent Historians Their Technology, Their Line, Their Fraud," exposing the misuse of patronage is conspicuous. Shourie wrote about them , "Can you walk off with six lakh seventy five thousand and not submit a thing in return? The eminent historians can. Can you promise to produce six volumes on Economic History, get a governmental institution to disburse the dough, produce nothing, have the project disappear from the reader screen, and just a while from the same institution to fork out another nineteen lakhs- this time seventeen volumes on the same subject, and still produce nothing?...can you stretch over twenty seven years a project which was have been to be completed in five, can you have the government defray close to two crores, when it had set the cost at a few lakhs...?" Any question of ideological predisposition or irregularities on their part provoke them to harp it as a ‘saffron conspiracy’. They perhaps believed the immutability of the Nehruvian paradigm which has been proven erroneous. The saffron upsurge is more painful to them than the political parties ousted from the power. They had been enjoying patronage from ‘bourgeoisie’ state on the one hand and also retaining their Marxist brand on the other, a case of contemporaneously appropriating both Marxism and Capitalism. Another folly has been their presumption that the talents and academic pursuit do not exist outside the Marxist-Nehruvian orbit. Their delusions were somewhat based on their own iron handedly suppression of the libaral –nationalist school represented by (KM)Munshi- (RC) Majumdar-(Jadunath) Sarkar . The Marxist methodology and tools of study have been utilised to prove them irrelevant, communal and Hindu bias. Two foreign scholars Mr. J.A Curran Jr and Criag Baxter worked on the RSS and the Jan Sangh in the 50’s. It led the Sampradayikata Virodhi Committee of Subhadra Joshi, whose publications have been authoritatively quoted by the Marxists social scientists, to publish, "American Interest in RSS", in 1973. It slandered the RSS for its alleged CIA link. It stated " Why these two American officials connected closely with the policy formation and operation of the US administration get interested in the RSS and the BJS ?.....The path of the RSS and America coincided on the morrow of Independence. Criag Baxter was thick with top leaders of the BJS and collaborated with them closely in analysing the strategies of the party." Moreover, Koenard Elst who brilliantly questioned Marxist methodology in his work "Negationism in India" (1992) was accused to be a ‘pen name of some Hindu communalist.’ It was during the Ram Janmabhoomi movement in 90’s they confronted with the assertive nationalist historians and archeologists. The evidences produced by Dr. S P Gupta ,formerly director of Allahabad museum, and has been General Secretary of the Indian Archaeological society, and Prof. B.B. Lal, both of them were associated with the Archaeology of Ramayana sites, approved by Prof. Narul Hasan the then education minister, coincided with the VHP’s claim. The Marxist historians retorted it rather polemically in "Political abuse of History." When A. R. Khan of HP university accused them for distorting facts in his article in the Indian Express published on 25.2.90 ,the Marxists denounced Khan allegedly for his , " inability to comprehend the language" of their argument, and rushing in "where angels fear to tread" (1-4-90, IE). Mr. Mahmud K. K., Dy. Superintending Archaeologist, Archaeological Survey of India, Madras circle, also (Indian Express 15.12.90 ) blamed them for suppressing the facts of their findings. All of them were accused as "VHP turncoats" by the Marxist historians. It is perhaps that only Marxist can tell when B.B.lal, S.K.lal or A.R.khan took Sangh training? It is an indicative that the RSS perspective of history brings it closer to the nationalist spirit of Majumdar-Munshi-Sarkar . As M.S. Golwalkar, second RSS chief says," histories have to be studied not only of blind faith and regard for all that our predecessors did, but to know and understand their good points and failings, the rights and using of their policies and practice of the same , the virtue and vices they manifested and to take inspiration and guidance from what is best and a lesson from what they lacked in, to avoid all that resulted in failures and frustrations and thus proceed more unerringly on the path of progress."

Ironically Marxist historians who clamoured against the liberals for their ‘partisan’ role themselves acted as apologists of the Babri Maszid Action Committee. Several of them offered themselves as witnesses on behalf of the Sunni Waqf Board in the courts considering Ayodhya matter. It included Prof. R.S.sharma (witness number 63), D N Jha ( No. 65), Romilla thapar (No. 66), Irfan Habib (No. 70) K M Shrimali (No. 95) Sumit sarkar (No. 101) and others. It is not their scholarship but its conscious use by them to question the cultural nationalism which is disputable. They are the victims of their own obsession with metaphysical ideological mould. They are thus like Shukracharya, who used his tapa and sadhana not for construction but destruction.

(The Author teaches political Science in Delhi University)

‘Durbar’ moves, ‘Durbaris’ unmoved!
Tales Of Travesty

By Dr Jitendra Singh

When "Durbar" moves, can the henchmen be far behind! But, when the militant movement in the Valley is vengefully directed against the henchmen, the latter learn to alternately associate and dissociate from the clout of Durbar depending on whether the State capital is based in Jammu or in Srinagar. Was it Samuel Johnson who quipped, every man wishes to be wise and they who cannot be wise end up being cunning!

On the eve of "Durbar" move, the closing down of civil Secretariate offices in Jammu will not only lead to a visible change in the lifestyle of the Durbar officers but may also ostensibly affect the style and modus operandi of the numerous political and social operators who thrive on the good offices of Durbar.

With the Durbar in Srinagar, there is likely to be a significant saving in the State exchequer since most of the officers will remain confined to their respective residential premises only to venture out reluctantly when it is absolutely essential. The saving of fuel may, atleast partly, help to reinforce the State's dwindling resources. Further, when most of the officers hailing from Jammu choose to leave behind their families in the safer environs of the winter capital, the fashionable Lal Chowk and Residency Road in Srinagar will be deprived of the indulgent patronage of gorgeously decked up connoisseurs on a shopping spree aided by a State chauffeur and a State transport.

The pinch of Durbar move will also be felt by Jammu's "relentless" protagonists who found it easier to project themselves as the crusaders for Jammu's cause as long as the Durbar was in the winter capital. Hundreds of self-proclaimed activists and dozens of self-styled organisations will find themselves deprived of a convenient access to the corridors of power whether it be for recommending the case of a kith, kin or favoured one, or for staging a Dharna outside the Secretariate, or for presenting a memorandum to a State high-up, or for arranging a press photograph session on the pretext of a meeting. These socalled "prominent" citizens can, however, derive satisfaction from the prospect of one or the other State Cabinet Minister remaining stationed in Jammu even after the Durbar moves over to Srinagar.

Meanwhile, the common man will get a six-months relief from his destined fate to stand in a queue outside the Secretariate gate day after day in a vain hope to get an application approved or a file sanctioned. Whether the Durbar is in Jammu or out of Jammu, the common man's plight remains unchanged except that when the Durbar is in Jammu the Secretariate offices are open but non-functioning whereas after the Durbar moves out of Jammu the Secretariate offices are closed and non-functioning.

On the other hand, irrespective of whether the Durbar is in Jammu or in Srinagar, the State" henchmen" will always find a way to thrive on the common man's suffering. Indeed, whether the Durbar is in Jammu or in Srinagar, the State "Durbaris" will never fail and they are here to stay as long as they have Umapathy's cause to "bemoan" and Akbar Allahabadi's verse to follow "Qaum Ke Gham Mein Dinner Khaatey Hain Huk-kam Ke Saath, Ranj Leader Ko Bahut Hain --- Magar Aaraam Ke Saath".

***

NPT review: Ignored issues

By Avinash Shirodkar

Although all nations of the world except four are today party to it, the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) is in trouble, its future uncertain. For a pact that has served as the bedrock of a five-nation-monopoly nuclear order, its extension in perpetuity was supposed to guarantee indefinite continuance of that regime. To achieve that success, many states were enticed, badgered, bullied, bribed, suborned or simply persuaded to fall in line.

Over success, however, can be a recipe for eventual failure. Permanent extension is likely to undo the NPT. When Washington originally launched its diplomatic offensive, the proposal for an everlasting extension was intended to serve only as an opening gambit. The strategy was to ask for the maximum possible so that something substantial came out of any compromise deal. In contrast, a more moderate approach, such as seeking another 25-year term, could yield, it was felt, only five to 10-year of extension. No one in Washington had imagined a year ahead that NPT would be permanently extended _ so smoothly. But once the permanent-extension juggernaut was launched, it flattered all opposition in its path.

Five years later, the legacy of 1995 is beginning to haunt the NPT regime. With the NPT's first formal review since the permanent extension scheduled to begin at a conference of state-parties in New York from April 24, questions are already being raised about the regime's future. Top US arms-control official John Holum has cautioned against "a weakened NPT regime" emerging from the conference. Despite its increased membership, however, the regime is already appearing weaker. The head of the US-based Institute for Energy and Environmental Research has contended that the NPT's permanent extension is "turning into a failure".

The former chief of the London Club (Nuclear Suppliers' Group), A. J. Baer of Switzerland, has called for "a better non-proliferating regime" to replace the NPT without the latter's inherent discrimination. You would expect India, a key target of the regime, to seize on Baer's proposal. But India has not put forward a single new proposal, apart from sponsoring for two years in a row a dimwitted "Reducing Nuclear Danger" resolution at the UN that lends support to the NPT regime.

The NPT is one of the most egregiously discriminatory treaties ever concluded in history, but its system of nuclear colonialism was introduced with the support of the discriminated. Its permanent extension, however, greatly amplified the inequity. Not only did the action seek the legitimise the five-nation monopoly, it also did away with the central bargain that won the original support of the discriminated. Under the bargain, non-nuclear states agreed to forswear nuclear ambitions and tolerate retention of nuclear arsenals by the then five possessor nations in return for efforts to achieve effective progress on complete disarmament, an obligation enshrined in the NPT's Article VI. More recently, the World Court ruled unanimously that the NPT nuclear powers have a two-fold legal obligation: Not only should they negotiate in good faith, they should also achieve nuclear disarmament "in all aspects".

In reality, the reverse has happened. The size of the five-nation nuclear arsenals today is many times bigger than when the NPT was concluded. And despite the scrapping of a lot of Cold War weapon surpluses, the two biggest nuclear powers retain more than 10,000 nuclear warheads each. The arms control and disarmament process has ground to a halt. In Geneva, China has held up all work to protest US missile-defence plans even as Beijing pursues the world's most ambitious nuclear and missile expansion programmes. It merrily continues to flout its NPT Article I obligations through transfers to Pakistan.

The NPT nuclear powers have certainly not held their end of the bargain.

In fact, since 1995, these powers have lost all incentive to work for disarmament. In the harshest criticism by a UN Secretary General since the end of the Cold War, Kofi Annan has said the disarmament and non-proliferation agenda is in a state of "deplorable stagnation" and a dangerous new nuclear arms race "looms on the horizon". UN Undersecretary General for Disarmament Jayantha Dhanapala, who chaired the NPTs permanent extension, has underscored this "bleak picture" and warned that "we are now entering a dangerous new era".

With the patience of non-nuclear states beginning to wear thin, the upcoming NPT review conference will be an occasion for plain speaking. Egyptian Ambassador Fayza Aboulnaga has already warned that "the NPT regime could crumble". However, by approving the treaty's permanent extension, the non-nuclear parties have little leverage left over the nuclear powers.

The stalled disarmament process is testament to the fundamental mistake these states committed in 1995. Although the permanent extension took place on the basis of 20 agreed "principles and objectives" that included the key goal of "systematic and progressive efforts" to reduce nuclear weapons, no such efforts have been undertaken.

Global security is at the crossroads today, and this year's developments will influence the direction it takes. The latest NPT review conference (held every five years) is important in that context. Given the sharply rising feelings, it will be surprise if any successful outcome emerges from the 25-day conference. In fact, by the time the final conference gavel falls, the frailty of the NPT regime will stand exposed. The traditional nuclear powers, however, already have a strategy to deflect criticism: They would insist the review not take just a backward but a forward look as well, that their Article VI obligations and most of the 1995 principles and objectives are not time-bound, and that the focus also be on the challenges mounted by India, Pakistan, Iraq and North Korea. As a US official, Pierce Corden, said in a recent paper, "So there are more issues and concerns at stake than those embodied in Article VI".

By gate-crashing the nuclear club in 1998, India demolished the central goal of the NPT regime: To keep the number of declared nuclear-weapons states at five. With that goal lost, the regime today looks overtaken by events. The Second Nuclear Age that India heralded seems incompatible with the NPT-type arrangements of the older era. The growing calls by a number of prominent Western figures for de facto recognition of India's nuclear-weapons status reflect both the new international respect gained by New Delhi and its ability to strike further at the foundations of the NPT regime.

The NPT's permanent extension was cited by New Delhi as one of the factors that motivated it to go overtly nuclear, but when that extension was proposed, India kept mum under a deal with Washington. Today it is again mum as the significant NPT review approaches, even though Corden and other Western officials have notified that India's tests and adherence to UN Security Council Resolution 1172 benchmarks would be issues at the conference. Given the reactive and undistinguished nature of India's disarmament diplomacy, this may not seem surprising. But the silence also springs from a desire to cosy up to the US and seek a broad strategic understanding with it.

While such an understanding on equitable terms will fit well with India's long-term interests, it is not going to come about through a "good boy" approach. Power and leverage, not a goodwill, drive international relations. Washington will accommodate India's interests only if non-accommodation entails real costs to US interests. New Delhi can build effective leverage through a two-pronged approach: It should do everything possible to undermine the credibility of the NPT, a regime most inimical to its interests, even as it offers implicit cooperation if its nuclear-weapons status is acknowledged through full membership in the London Club without the fullscope-safeguards provision being applicable. The United States will be more willing to co-opt India if exclusion means a continued Indian war on an already-threatened regime. INAV



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