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EDITORIAL Prepared by the Town and Country Planning Organisation of Government of India draft Master Plan for Greater Jammu has been presented by Jammu Development Authority. It would encompass an area of around 200 sq-km as against 110 sq. km of the last Master Plan. The life of last Master Plan is assumed to have expired in 1998 although in reality plan was meant to be for 20 years from 1974 to 1994 for catering to maximum population of just 5.52 lakhs. It is even in layman's knowledge that population far exceeded the projections which explains why things have not clicked on many fronts, notably on water, sewerage and power as also road/lanes and other infrastructure. True, during the last plan JDA gave to Jammuites many prestigious colonies like Transport Nagar, Vegetable and Fruit Market, some commercial complexes, Trikuta Nagar, Bantalab Ph I & II, Paloura Ph I & II and Roop Nagar besides development of traffic islands..............more There is unprecedented volatility in nation's main bourses with Sensex dipping by the hundreds. And all this because NASDEQ in New York dips abnormally as if our economy is controlled by American stocks and policies. It is to be remembered that NASDEQ.....more |
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Migration of
Sikhs from the Valley By Mohan Singh Education
in Indian By Dr Vishiesh Verma Exit Polls
: Need for By Yuvraj Mehta Boeing's
expansion By D K Arora |
EDITORIAL Prepared by the Town and Country Planning Organisation of Government of India draft Master Plan for Greater Jammu has been presented by Jammu Development Authority. It would encompass an area of around 200 sq-km as against 110 sq. km of the last Master Plan. The life of last Master Plan is assumed to have expired in 1998 although in reality plan was meant to be for 20 years from 1974 to 1994 for catering to maximum population of just 5.52 lakhs. It is even in layman's knowledge that population far exceeded the projections which explains why things have not clicked on many fronts, notably on water, sewerage and power as also road/lanes and other infrastructure. True, during the last plan JDA gave to Jammuites many prestigious colonies like Transport Nagar, Vegetable and Fruit Market, some commercial complexes, Trikuta Nagar, Bantalab Ph I & II, Paloura Ph I & II and Roop Nagar besides development of traffic islands. By any reckoning these colonies are just not enough to absorb the ever rising population which explains mushroom growth of unauthorised colonies on the periphery of the city and its suburbs. Shortage of water and power and bad sewerage is attributed to wrong anticipation and miscalculations. The next draft Master Plan is projected to cater to population of 19.21 lakh by the year 2021 which will encompass another 160 villages. At this stage it would be apt to mention several crucial aspects. First, it is only a draft plan which is yet to be approved by the Government and timeframe spelt out for systemetic development. Second, present population is around 10 lakh and at current rate of growth it would be definitely more than 20 lakh. Third, water, power and sewerage is not adequate and grossly deficit. This deficit has to be made good before the next plan is launched. Incidentally Government has not addressed to such accumulated problems thus far nor there is any allocation for the water supply master plan amounting to Rs. 456 crore whence water is sought to be lifted from Chenab at Akhnoor and brought to the city. Fourth, necessary civic amenities must be provided and action initiated for regularisation of unauthorised colonies. Likewise, power supply position needs massive augmentation which necessitates total revamp. Another factor that cannot be ignored relates to decongestion of Jammu City which has direct bearing on the Greater Jammu plan. In this context RITES and Kotwal Committee reports are gathering dust for years. Except for the flyover none of other recommendations have been implemented, not even considered. Mushroom growth of colonies on the periphery of the city, both authorised and unauthorised, have added to the congestion problems because all roads lead to the old city, be it school children, employees, job seekers, medicare or normal trading activities. It is so because even JDA townships built during the last plan are not self-contained and are totally dependent on city for all vital life sustaining inputs. City thus remains the core of any planning. Core Area Development schemes implemented by various agencies including Municipality, PWD, JDA etc started with a bang but ended in a whimper as it was treated as one time project to give face-lift to the city. To make it a meaningful exercise, it should have been a continuous process. As things stand even maintenance of works carried out under Core Area Schemes is not done due to pausity of resources and/or indifference. The result is the same messy situation with city remaining overcrowded - trafficwise, populationwise, businesswise and otherwise. It is the considered view that the accumulated problems that remain unaddressed to cater to the existing population of about a million should have priority. Unless this backlog is cleared with meticulous planning and adequate funding, woes of Jammuites would get further aggravated with implementation of the proposed Greater Jammu plan. If the foundation is concrete, the plan is a success. Contrarily if the foundation is full of woes and fragilities galore, even a well-thought out plan would become an exercise in futility. Let the thrust be multi-directional. Improve power supply with better rating transformers and receiving stations besides transmission system. Start the PHE scheme to lift water from Chenab immediately rather than resorting to make-shift schemes shabbily implemented. RITES report and Kotwal Committee recommendations should be immediately adopted so that city gets decongested and its ability to absorb load of more peripheral colonies is enhanced. All the colonies in the proposed Greater Jammu plan should be self-contained in terms of education, shopping, health care and other essential inputs. Absence of these results in convergence of one and all in the city resulting in chaotic conditions in every sphere. Greater Jammu should indeed be great in thoughts and deeds. There is unprecedented volatility in nation's main bourses with Sensex dipping by the hundreds. And all this because NASDEQ in New York dips abnormally as if our economy is controlled by American stocks and policies. It is to be remembered that NASDEQ deals with only ICE shares (Information Technology, Communications and Entertainment). So if prices of these fall at NASDEQ, it should not normally affect other shares. Further, only few Indian companies are listed on NASDEQ. The massive all round fall in share values in India is indicative of panic reaction rather than correct economic appraisal. True, stocks have gone down by 7 to 9% in most of the industrialised nations markets. But then they are already globally integrated economies and very largely listed on NASDEQ. Volatility in Indian stock markets therefore remains unexplained and economic pundits/analysts are puzzled about the collapse. As things stand, some pointers need specific mention. First, Indian stock markets as also the rupee remained rock steady during previous crash in almost all the Asian and European markets. But this time Indian market reacts wildly to what happens in America. It would be attributed to globalisation of Indian economy, a proposition that seems to have become a reality. Second, IT shares appear to be over-priced, particularly the dot-com shares. In fact, it is the fall in dot-com shares at NasdEq that caused major damage. Investors in America have apprehensions that these overpriced shares have no future at least return-wise. But why other software shares have followed suit. Indian software companies are on very strong pedastal with very large export potential. It seems some corrections in overpriced software shares are needed and that explains fall in BSE index. Third, and it is no less important, is the psychological impact of chain reaction which has taken a heavy toll of all stock markets. Fourth one is very interesting and revealing. Even as Indian stock-holders resorted to massive panic selling during the week, Foreign Institutional Investors purchased stocks worth 260 crore on the day of collapse and more than 2000 crore worth stocks since April 1 till date. It is obvious that FIIs are real businessmen and net gainers as stocks are bound to stabilise with corporate results of the major players including Reliance showing excellent results. Indian stock markets ought not to follow American economy. Ours is a growing and resilient one which should get reflected correctly in the nation's bourses. |
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Migration of Sikhs from the Valley By Mohan Singh Sikhs have been living in the Kas-hmir valley for centuries. They were having cordial relations with Muslims and Hindus. As part and parcel of Jammu and Kashmir, they fought tribal (Qabalis) invaders in 1947 to protect independence. They continued to live in Kashmir, except in that part of J&K, which was forcibly occupied by Pakistan. In 1990, when Pandits migrated from the Kashmir valley, Sikhs thought it better not to leave the Kashmir valley in the larger interests of the country and communal harmony. They continued to live there in the far flung areas, towns and city. They never ought that they will be mowed down in Chitti Singh Pura by some militants. It was a great shock to the Sikhs living there and elsewhere, as this brutal act was committed after a period of about ten years. It is also a puzzle to them as to why have they been targeted when they were not involved in any way and were having cordial relations with the Muslims. This shock wave was so strong that it shook the entire world. There were spontaneous protest marches, strikes and gatherings by the Kashmiri Muslims, inhabitants of Jammu & Sikhs in Punjab, Delhi and other parts of India. World leaders condemned this act. National and International media gave coverage to this brutal killing. Those who committed this outrage should learn a lesson that there is unity and brotherhood among different communities living in Jammu and Kashmir and elsewhere in the country. There seems nothing communal with regard to this brutal killings by a group of militants. This was committed by third party on the directions of forces from across the border to create communal tension in the Valley and other parts of the country. But these forces failed in their evil designs. Because of this single act of killings, there seems no other ground of Sikhs to leave their homes and hearth and migrate from Kashmir valley at this stage. This would amount to falling into the trap of forces who want to cleanse Valley of Hindus and Sikhs, which is not supported by the local-Muslims. In fact, it is encouraging and healthy sign. Sikhs living in the Valley have been given moral support, apart from political and material support by the Kashmiri Muslims, Sikhs of the country and inhabitants of Jammu and political parties and Govt of J&K and Central Govt. Such a support and strength received by the Sikhs of the Valley was beyond expectations. Why should they migrate when the entire country stood by them as one-man. Migration means leaving behind their hearth and homes and start new life. To resettle is very difficult in these hard days. To migrate and resettle is a painful process to build every thing a new, which takes years together. In fact a lesson needs to be learnt from Kashmiri Pandits, who migrated about 10 years back and from refugees of 1947. After migration they will have to build houses, start some work, search for employment, arrange education for children and many other things. Above all majority community has shown solidaritary and Sympathy and have assured protection to their live and property. This really matters. In the absence of assurance by the majority community, other types of protection and security will not serve the purpose. If the majority community is sincere it should restore the confidence of the Sikhs, who have been living with them in complete communal harmony. If such congenial atmosphere is created, then there is no reason for the Sikhs of the Valley to migrate. Sikhs of the Valley are mature enough to decide whether migration is good for them or not. They may take a decision keeping all aspects in view. In case they consider migration as inevitable, then they should migrate en-masse at appropriate time and settle at one place. There are, no doubt, social, educational and economic problems, being faced by this microscopic community in the Valley. But Sikhs cannot afford to live in isolation. As a minority they will have to live with others, particularly in communal harmony with other minorities to ward off evil designs of the communal forces. Migration can have adverse repurcusison. Keeping all these aspects in view, they should, in my opinion give some time to the majority community and to the State and Central Govts. to prove their good intentions and bonafide. Hasty decision taken of migrating may prove counter productive. They should wait and watch and then take a decision. |
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Exit Polls : Need for scientific model By Yuvraj Mehta The exit poll has always been a centre of controversy. The ab-ject failure of the exit polls to correctly predict the winner in the recent Bihar Assembly and earlier in Madhya Pradesh Lok Sabha polls have again thrown serious questions about the efficacy of this psephological exercise. DD-DRS Exit Polls projected majority for National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Bihar - bagging 195 of the 324 seats. Laloo Prasad's Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and its alliance would be left with 64 seats only. But, the actual poll result for Bihar showed RJD and NDA both getting seats in the range of 122-125. This drastic difference between actual result and the projected figure casts serious doubts to the credibility of forecasting techniques. Now, the question is where the real problem lies ? Is the poll prediction a fuss ? Is it means of a quick popularity for the research agencies ? Or, there is really such method that can gauge the voter's mood and predict the future ? By sitting in a posh Delhi office, a Research Agency's CEO, equipped with some statistical models, randomly selected few respondents view, tries to predict the poll result. And, the result is a big blunder, which happened many a times. This erodes the credibility of forecasting, and then we see no difference between roadside astrologers and psephologists. The real problem not only lies in the formulation of proper research methologies and its implementation, but also not properly understanding the socio-economic culture of the place, the psychographic profile of the voters and the political environment. If you study the social scenario of Bihar, the most important contribution Laloo has made in last 10 years of his rule is that he changed the social scenario. Now, the lower caste people can stand in front of upper caste and be at par with them. They can now voice their concern. Being suppressed for so long, this social freedom made Laloo their messiah. This social upliftment of lower caste is RJD's strong vote bank. These voters should have found proper representation. This brings to the discussion of understanding voter's area of concern that changes depending upon the economic and political situation that are prevailing in the State. But, the psephologists should not fall easy prey to this theory. It has been observed that the main area of concern may not lead the voters to vote for specific party. If the case of Bihar is taken, we can say that the pollster overestimated Laloo Prasad's jungle raj rule and underplayed the charismatic image of Laloo, which was the reason of his fixed vote among the lower caste. Again, not projecting Chief Minister before election and internal fight in NDA before election, eroded their seats. Also, the RSS issue distanced the Muslim voter that finally went to RJD. This time Congress went along in the election without the support of RJD, which caused split of forward caste vote. These entire socio-political factors eroded the BJP's vote bank. The popularity chart of the ruling RJD Government (which I constructed during 1998 election and successfully showed why exit poll result of Madhya Pradesh went wrong, published in a section of the press) should have been properly constructed. The trend in the chart reflects the mood of the voters and may be handy in forecasting the future mood. The base of this chart is the voters' intention to vote for - expressed voting intentions by the respondents. The other important thing in the popularity chart is the swing in the voting percentage -- either positive or negative swing. This swing gauges the shift in the mood of the voters and tries to identity the popularity rate of the ruling Government. Coming to the research methodologies, let us start from the sampling stage. It's really tough to gauge the political result by taking view of few respondents. Agrees Kalyanmoy Chatterjee of T. N. Sofres Mode, "Proper sample size and representation should be there to minimise the error of forecasting. Wrong selection could lead to faulty result, which is the reason of many of the failure." It may be good to forecast the sale of a product. But, when it comes to predicting the polls, sampling needs to be widespread and highly representative -- it should give equal chance of representation. There should be a good balance between the number of constituencies and number of voters surveyed. Especially in case of Assembly election, where trends vary from constituency to constituency, candidate to candidate and area to area. Although, the State may be divided into different constituencies, there is high change that the voters in the same constituencies will be heterogeneous. So, the constitution of constituencies for prediction purpose should not be as per the Government, but based on the voters homogeneity. Coming to error, all sampling surveys are subject to sampling and non-sampling errors. The calculation of margin of error is very crucial. Especially in those areas where the finish is very close, the margin of error should be calculated very precisely. Otherwise, even a small percentage error in votes could make the estimates topsy-turvy. "The agencies should try to minimise both sampling and non-sampling error and the margin of error should be properly formulated. Error which occurs at the implementation stage could be minimised with proper supervision and cross checks", says Pravin Mishra, Delhi - based senior research consultant. The other important aspect is the methodology by which the percentage vote shares of various political formulations are converted into seats. Here, no western models is valid. Neither the Cube Law nor the Index of Opposition Unity. In Indian context, the model should take into account the multipolarity and complicated electoral adjustments. Several factors such as degree of polarity in constituency, degree of geographical concentration of political formulation, complexity of electoral adjustments and literacy level of constituency, are all crucial in determining the extent to which an increase in vote share translates into an increase in seats. These pollsters should be made accountable and their research methodologies should be clearly spelt out. There should be some control mechanism which will verify the realibility and validity of the methodologies used for forecasting. It can be concluded that if carefully designed and current social, political and economic situations are properly incorporated in the forecasting model, the pre-poll will be more reliable. The psephologists should fine tune the sampling process and make projections more scientific. PTI Feature |
Boeing's expansion plans in India By D K Arora US aviation giant Boeing has re-affirmed its commitment to partnership with India. US President Bill Clinton's recent visit to India would help the ties to take off towards greater interaction in the aviation field between the two great democracies of the world, said Dr Dinesh Keskar, outgoing president of Boeing India. Dr Keskar has returned to Boeing headquarters in Seattle to assume responsibilities as the president of Boeing Aircraft Trading. Meanwhile, Dr Suvendoo K Ray has assumed the Boeing senior executive position in India. Dr Keskar recalls how over the years, Boeing has built a strong relationship with the people of India, providing aerospace products and services that will help the country develop in the years to come. "The work that we have done so far, and that we will continue to do in the future, will position both the aerospace firms and airlines of India to assume a regional leadership position", he added. In the past 10 years, Boeing has sold 26 aircraft worth US $ 2 billion to Jet Airways and Air India and has leased 13 new 737 family airplanes, Jet and Sahara airlines. The company has also sold 40 aircraft to private airline, including those which are no more, such as Damania, East West, ModiLuft and Air Asiatic. "Boeing airplanes are the backbone of Indian fleet, and we are pleased that they are giving superior results to these carriers", said Dr Keskar. He said the Boeing's commitment, however, went well beyond the company's direct day-to-day assistance to India's aviation industry. Boeing is continuously exploring new avenues for business and investment in the overall Indian economy, knowing that a strengthened business section will help propel the nation's aviation industry and vice versa. Since 1988, Boeing has worked with international trading firms to find new markets for India goods and services, ranging from machine tools to jute products to medicinal items. The effort so far has boosted Indian exports by nearly Rs 8 billion. In addition, Boeing has developed several cooperative ventures with Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. (HAL). Currently, HAL manufactures cargo doors for Boeing 777s and 767s, along with landing-gear components for the 777 which could potentially generate US $30 million work. The HAL is also providing exit doors for the 757, and is working to convert mechanical design drawings for Boeing aircraft into digital, computerised formats. Boeing has worked with software development companies such as DSQ Software and Tata Consultancy, on various programmes such as Y2K conversion activities. Research and Development projects have also been initiated with such companies as the National Aeronautics Ltd, the Indian Institute of Science, Satyam Computer Services, Honeywell Indian Software Operations and the Defence Metallurgical Research Laboratory. Boeing is actively involved in the Indian aerospace academic field through sponsoring scholarship programmes at the Indian Institute of Technology, he added. Boeing has long recognised India's tremendous economic promise. Boeing also realises the important role that civil aviation will play in India's drive to expand its economy and promote prosperity. Following a long-term commitment to India going back many decades, the company four years ago established Boeing India, a liaison office of the Boeing International Corporation. Boeing did not wait for the launch of economic liberalisation to commit itself as an active partner in India's future. The companies that merged to become the Boeing Company of today have shared the vision for a thriving, prosperous India for more than 55 years. Direct support for Indian civil aviation has long been a Boeing priority. The company trains Indian pilots, flight engineers aircraft technicians, maintenance personnel, and flight abundants. Boeing recently expanded its training programme to accommodate the new entrepreneurial domestic arriers that have entered the industry during its ongoing liberalisation. In addition, the Boeing India field-service representatives provide round-the-clock technical and maintenance help for Indian Airlines. Boeing also regularly sponsors airline planning seminars and air safety symposiums for airline and regulatory-agency representatives. Dr Keskar said, "We will continue our strategy of working together with the Indian aerospace industry to pursue aerospace leadership now and into the future." The Boeing has offered its latest 100-seater B717-200 aircraft to the Indian Airlines for short-haul domestic operations, especially in the North-East. This single-aisle plane is specifically designed to fly on low-density routes with high frequency and "lowest" operating cost per trip. Indian Airlines had recently opened bids for a US $2 billion order involving purchase of 40 aircraft. The order involves purchase of fifteen 100-seater aircraft, seventeen 180-seater aircraft and eight 150-seater aircraft. The company has already made presentations before the Board of Air India, which is looking for aircraft to replace its ageing fleet, and offered to sell the B777-200s, claiming it was "ideally suited" for the international carrier's medium to long range outbound routes. For Air India's medium-range regional routes, it has offered B767s as a replacement for the old A300s. Fueled by strong market interest and customer commitments, Boeing and General Electric launched two new longer-range models of the successful 777 on February last year. Deliveries of the new 777 models - 777-200s and 777-300s - are expected to begin in September 2003. Both airplanes will be powered by higher-thrust derivatives of the GE90 engine, which has accumulated more than one million flight hours since entering service in November 1995. The new 777s will address much of the market demand for airlines to offer more point-to-point services, opening up new routes. The longer-range 777-200 will be the world's longest-range commercial airplane, capable of flying more than 10,100 statute miles, for example, from New York to Kuala Lumpur. The longer-range 777-300 serves as the ideal replacement for early 747s, providing comparable capacity but efficient, twin-engine economics on such routes as Paris to Los Angeles. The largest aerospace company in the world after its merger in 1997 with McDonnel Douglas and acquisition in 1996 of the defence and space units of Rockwell International, Boeing mirrors the history of aviation. It is the world's largest manufacturer of commercial jetliners, military aircraft and the largest NASA contractor in the United States. Company's revenue was US $ 22.7 billion in 1996, $45.8 billion in 1997 and $ 56.2 billion in 1998. - CNF |
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